Luận văn Truyền dẫn chính sách tiền tệ tại Việt Nam

Phân rã phương sai đối với tín dụng tư nhân, kết quả ở bảng phân rã phương sai (PL 2.4) cho thấy trong ngắn hạn tín dụng tư nhân chịu tác động mạnh bởi chính nó, nhưng trong trung và dài hạn, ngoài tác động từ chính nó, tín dụng tư nhân chịu tác động bởi nhiều nhân tố. Cụ thể cung tiền tác động mạnh nhất đến tín dụng tư nhân, tác động của cung tiền đến tín dụng tư nhân tháng thứ nhất đạt 9.85%, sau đó tăng dần và đạt mức cao nhất là 51.47% vào tháng thứ 12. Tiếp theo là lãi suất cho vay tác động đến tín dụng tư nhân mạnh nhất là 7.02% vào tháng thứ 16, sau đó giảm nhẹ và duy trì ở mức trên 6%. Ngoài 2 nhân tố trên, tín dụng tư nhân chịu tác động của sản lượng công nghiệp mạnh nhất là 1.8% vào tháng thứ 40, tác động của lạm phát mạnh nhất là 4.06% vào tháng thứ 12, tác động của chỉ số giá chứng khoán mạnh nhất là 8.62% vào tháng thứ 32, tác động của tỷ giá hối đoái mạnh nhất là 9.88% vào tháng thứ 48, tác động của lãi suất tái cấp vốn mạnh nhất là 1.13% vào tháng thứ 8. Đặc biệt kết quả giúp ta phát hiện được trong ngắn hạn vào tháng thứ nhất, tăng trưởng kinh tế tác động đến tín dụng tư nhân là 0.5% lớn hơn tháng thứ 4, 8, 12. Kết quả này ngụ ý rằng tăng trưởng kinh tế kích thích ngay lập tức đến tín dụng tư nhân, tuy nhiên mức độ rất thấp, điều này cho thấy tín dụng tư nhân tại Việt Nam chưa phải là đòn bẩy mạnh nhất góp phần thúc đẩy tăng trưởng và ngược lại

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Journal of Monetary Economics 51 (3), 635-652. 193 PHỤ LỤC PHỤ LỤC 1: KẾT QUẢ KIỂM ĐỊNH SỰ PHÙ HỢP CỦA MÔ HÌNH Phục lục 1.1: Mô hình dạng khung Yt= f(OILt, IRUt, IPGt, CPIt, M2t, IRDt)’ -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phục lục 1.2: Mô hình kênh lãi suất Yt= f(IPGt, CPIt, M2t, IRLt, IRDt)’ -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phục lục 1.3: Mô hình kênh lãi suất có biến M2t và VNIt 194 Yt= f(IPGt, CPIt, VNIt, M2t,IRLt, IRDt)’ -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phục lục 1.4: Mô hình kênh tỷ giá Yt= f(IPGt, CPIt, M2t, IRLt,EXUt, IRDt)’ -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phụ lục 1.5: Mô hình kênh tỷ giá có biến MIGt và MIGt Yt= f(IPGt, CPIt, M2t, IRLt,MIGt, MXGt, EXUt, IRDt) 195 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phụ lục 1.6: Mô hình kênh tín dụng Yt= f(IPGt, CPIt, M2t, IRLt, EXUt, CPSt, IRDt) -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phụ lục 1.7: Mô hình kênh tín dụng có biến VNIt Yt= f(IPGt, CPIt, VNIt, M2t, IRLt, EXUt, CPSt, IRDt)’ 196 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả PHỤ LỤC 2: KẾT QUẢ PHÂN RÃ PHƯƠNG SAI (VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION) Phục lục 2.1: Mô hình dạng khung Variance Decomposition of IPG_SA: Period OIL_SA IRU_SA IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRD_SA 1 0.01 0.06 99.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.90 0.80 95.78 1.42 0.87 0.23 8 3.76 0.80 91.80 2.14 1.00 0.50 12 6.52 0.89 88.45 2.51 1.03 0.59 16 8.50 1.01 85.67 3.13 1.08 0.62 24 10.36 1.16 81.37 4.73 1.73 0.64 32 11.08 1.28 79.24 5.54 2.18 0.67 40 11.49 1.43 78.16 5.78 2.43 0.70 48 11.72 1.56 77.45 5.85 2.69 0.73 Variance Decomposition of CPI_SA: Period OIL_SA IRU_SA IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRD_SA 1 1.78 0.03 0.89 97.31 0.00 0.00 4 9.87 1.45 2.86 83.05 2.70 0.06 8 19.41 2.19 3.35 71.33 3.44 0.28 12 21.95 1.78 2.72 54.33 18.68 0.53 16 18.91 1.57 2.11 42.47 34.20 0.73 24 15.78 2.69 1.77 35.68 43.07 1.00 32 15.37 4.04 2.01 34.91 42.64 1.05 40 15.23 5.21 2.27 34.54 41.71 1.03 48 15.27 6.30 2.41 33.91 41.04 1.06 197 Variance Decomposition of M2_SA: Period OIL_SA IRU_SA IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRD_SA 1 1.93 0.31 2.39 0.10 95.27 0.00 4 0.96 2.50 0.54 6.24 89.67 0.09 8 1.34 5.97 0.33 9.59 82.54 0.22 12 3.13 9.64 0.42 9.14 77.40 0.27 16 4.59 12.27 0.93 9.24 72.71 0.26 23 5.64 14.54 1.96 10.68 66.86 0.32 24 5.74 14.80 2.06 10.75 66.30 0.35 32 6.63 16.79 2.51 10.44 63.01 0.62 40 7.48 18.13 2.62 9.76 61.08 0.94 48 7.96 18.66 2.62 9.14 60.38 1.25 Variance Decomposition of IRD_SA: Period OIL_SA IRU_SA IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRD_SA 1 10.78 0.00 0.21 13.97 1.63 73.41 4 30.16 0.21 1.57 21.91 4.87 41.28 8 40.97 1.16 2.09 23.83 3.48 28.47 12 46.66 1.67 1.76 19.88 6.56 23.47 16 45.16 1.55 1.45 16.41 15.57 19.85 24 39.28 1.25 1.26 14.62 27.16 16.42 32 37.95 1.28 1.21 14.09 29.59 15.89 40 37.66 1.37 1.21 13.93 30.05 15.78 48 37.51 1.51 1.23 13.87 30.16 15.72 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phụ lục 2.2 : Mô hình kênh lãi suất Variance Decomposition of IPG_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA 1 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 95.40 0.24 1.40 1.58 0.75 0.64 8 88.27 0.27 4.16 4.60 0.76 1.94 12 83.25 0.30 6.24 6.08 1.19 2.94 16 79.66 0.30 7.99 6.34 1.96 3.75 24 74.66 0.37 10.79 6.02 3.24 4.93 32 71.90 0.51 12.45 5.81 3.75 5.58 40 70.57 0.58 13.30 5.70 3.95 5.89 48 69.90 0.61 13.74 5.65 4.05 6.04 Variance Decomposition of CPI_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA 1 0.06 99.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.12 90.77 0.08 1.88 7.08 0.07 8 0.17 74.83 0.15 3.80 20.98 0.07 198 12 0.54 53.25 1.49 17.95 26.66 0.11 16 0.95 40.83 3.31 30.89 23.78 0.23 24 1.30 36.01 4.65 38.45 19.32 0.26 32 1.34 35.50 4.65 38.65 19.55 0.32 40 1.33 35.30 4.64 38.49 19.81 0.43 48 1.33 35.22 4.64 38.44 19.88 0.49 Variance Decomposition of LNVNI_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA 1 0.18 5.31 94.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.10 6.75 86.42 3.04 1.03 2.66 8 0.08 10.54 78.62 4.90 0.51 5.34 12 0.09 12.43 75.59 4.86 0.53 6.50 16 0.08 12.61 75.13 4.34 0.68 7.15 24 0.07 11.77 75.82 3.76 0.68 7.89 32 0.07 11.22 76.16 3.56 0.69 8.31 40 0.07 10.99 76.12 3.53 0.75 8.55 48 0.07 10.90 76.05 3.53 0.77 8.67 Variance Decomposition of M2_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA 1 1.27 0.13 0.05 98.55 0.00 0.00 4 1.54 9.12 6.19 81.66 1.45 0.03 8 1.88 14.71 8.46 70.85 4.04 0.05 12 1.92 15.79 8.54 65.37 8.15 0.23 16 1.88 15.36 8.21 62.16 11.82 0.57 24 1.81 14.58 7.80 59.23 15.30 1.28 32 1.79 14.32 7.65 58.35 16.27 1.62 40 1.78 14.20 7.59 57.99 16.69 1.76 48 1.77 14.15 7.56 57.79 16.91 1.83 Variance Decomposition of IRL_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA 1 0.26 8.24 0.14 0.98 90.38 0.00 4 0.31 21.70 0.59 1.62 72.07 3.71 8 0.17 19.66 1.09 1.51 72.76 4.80 12 0.22 14.81 2.41 5.32 71.66 5.58 16 0.33 13.00 3.81 9.36 67.42 6.09 24 0.43 13.08 5.14 11.97 62.78 6.60 32 0.44 13.10 5.38 12.03 62.30 6.75 40 0.44 13.08 5.42 12.01 62.27 6.78 48 0.44 13.06 5.45 12.00 62.25 6.79 Variance Decomposition of IRD_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA 1 0.06 17.57 0.09 1.97 12.13 68.18 4 0.10 29.00 0.09 4.17 24.36 42.29 8 0.05 31.17 0.26 2.39 42.28 23.85 12 0.10 25.11 1.09 3.99 51.66 18.05 16 0.24 20.03 2.46 8.81 52.78 15.68 199 24 0.45 17.93 4.35 14.58 48.53 14.17 32 0.49 17.98 4.76 15.23 47.49 14.05 40 0.49 17.96 4.81 15.24 47.44 14.05 48 0.49 17.95 4.82 15.24 47.43 14.05 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phụ lục 2.3: Mô hình kênh tỷ giá Variance Decomposition of IPG_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 97.43 0.00 0.80 0.79 0.23 0.25 0.42 0.07 8 96.20 0.04 0.79 0.84 0.40 0.65 0.97 0.09 12 94.96 0.24 0.79 1.16 0.53 0.79 1.40 0.12 16 93.66 0.42 0.85 1.82 0.56 0.84 1.73 0.12 24 91.10 0.48 1.55 3.23 0.62 0.83 2.06 0.13 32 89.06 0.51 2.44 4.06 0.76 0.82 2.21 0.14 40 87.91 0.53 2.82 4.56 0.83 0.82 2.40 0.14 48 87.10 0.53 2.98 4.94 0.85 0.81 2.64 0.14 Variance Decomposition of CPI_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 0.15 99.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.69 90.66 0.57 5.77 1.07 0.09 1.13 0.02 8 0.93 72.27 4.24 16.55 4.62 0.10 0.87 0.42 12 1.19 49.14 23.15 19.12 3.56 0.92 1.04 1.88 16 1.11 34.89 38.08 14.53 3.91 2.70 2.29 2.49 24 0.98 29.83 41.45 10.41 6.17 5.09 3.86 2.23 32 0.99 29.58 41.06 10.37 6.23 5.53 4.03 2.20 40 0.99 29.49 40.95 10.47 6.34 5.52 4.03 2.21 48 0.98 29.45 40.87 10.61 6.32 5.51 4.03 2.21 Variance Decomposition of M2_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 3.57 0.01 96.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.63 4.58 74.43 0.58 13.82 1.75 3.56 0.63 8 0.30 9.33 60.15 0.81 19.80 3.36 5.82 0.43 12 0.28 9.86 55.48 1.13 21.02 4.64 7.20 0.37 16 0.31 9.70 54.40 1.32 20.81 5.23 7.85 0.37 24 0.36 9.81 53.35 1.49 21.08 5.36 8.18 0.37 32 0.37 9.90 52.40 2.13 20.68 5.41 8.72 0.38 40 0.36 9.85 51.59 3.06 20.32 5.38 9.06 0.38 48 0.36 9.73 51.29 3.65 20.14 5.30 9.15 0.37 Variance Decomposition of IRL_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 0.90 8.25 0.07 90.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 2.23 19.04 0.09 69.75 3.01 0.59 0.28 5.00 200 8 2.52 17.12 2.36 64.58 5.83 0.58 0.39 6.62 12 2.51 13.29 11.11 59.31 5.17 1.01 0.32 7.28 16 2.25 12.96 20.30 50.58 4.71 1.86 0.45 6.89 24 1.98 14.62 24.74 43.19 5.86 2.95 0.59 6.07 32 1.96 14.63 24.65 42.95 5.90 3.02 0.82 6.07 40 1.95 14.54 24.50 42.83 5.89 3.03 1.19 6.05 48 1.95 14.47 24.43 42.76 5.91 3.02 1.43 6.03 Variance Decomposition of MIG_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 1.65 0.04 1.11 0.73 96.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 1.32 2.99 0.89 3.48 89.09 1.41 0.06 0.76 8 1.70 4.67 14.70 2.92 70.39 3.50 0.41 1.70 12 1.18 14.66 25.80 2.91 47.84 4.58 1.72 1.29 24 0.90 19.47 25.25 7.19 38.25 4.86 2.42 1.65 32 0.88 19.24 26.81 7.02 36.81 4.91 2.54 1.79 40 0.88 19.21 26.81 7.04 36.75 4.97 2.55 1.79 48 0.88 19.20 26.80 7.05 36.74 4.97 2.55 1.79 Variance Decomposition of MXG_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 3.55 0.35 0.86 0.00 29.10 66.15 0.00 0.00 4 4.45 7.84 2.77 4.56 10.68 68.46 0.75 0.48 8 5.24 7.26 4.39 5.09 14.66 62.25 0.69 0.42 12 4.86 7.78 8.02 4.60 16.77 56.97 0.63 0.38 16 4.21 12.54 12.13 5.00 14.75 50.33 0.68 0.36 24 3.69 16.66 12.17 7.92 14.36 43.49 0.71 1.01 32 3.53 15.98 15.20 8.10 13.60 40.52 1.38 1.68 40 3.47 16.00 15.72 7.90 13.48 39.78 1.91 1.74 48 3.47 15.95 15.69 7.96 13.49 39.70 2.02 1.73 Variance Decomposition of LNEXU_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 0.91 2.56 0.90 1.48 0.18 0.14 93.83 0.00 4 0.90 1.55 0.58 6.66 0.47 0.66 87.21 1.97 8 1.06 0.81 0.26 14.16 0.34 2.52 76.49 4.35 12 1.13 0.70 0.47 19.87 0.58 3.45 69.56 4.24 16 1.07 0.57 1.37 24.58 1.12 3.64 64.04 3.61 24 0.85 0.38 3.92 31.54 2.19 3.18 55.39 2.56 32 0.67 0.29 6.22 36.07 2.62 2.62 49.58 1.92 40 0.55 0.24 8.30 38.68 2.87 2.20 45.62 1.55 48 0.47 0.22 9.86 40.11 3.09 1.91 43.03 1.32 Variance Decomposition of IRD_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA 1 0.08 18.47 0.81 13.10 1.53 1.00 2.10 62.90 4 1.13 27.56 1.50 24.75 3.12 0.98 2.28 38.69 8 1.57 29.41 1.13 37.30 4.72 0.94 2.12 22.80 201 12 1.69 23.96 6.77 42.02 4.42 0.74 1.66 18.74 16 1.65 19.17 17.62 38.98 3.73 1.21 1.42 16.23 24 1.45 17.76 26.92 31.56 5.00 2.69 1.55 13.07 32 1.44 17.74 27.36 30.94 5.15 3.06 1.56 12.74 40 1.44 17.68 27.31 30.95 5.15 3.06 1.71 12.70 48 1.44 17.65 27.28 30.91 5.16 3.05 1.84 12.67 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phụ lục 2.4: Mô hình kênh tín dụng Variance Decomposition of IPG_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 94.21 0.52 1.18 0.91 1.15 0.89 1.14 0.01 8 89.18 0.76 1.91 1.77 1.69 1.85 2.83 0.02 12 86.56 0.87 2.55 2.30 1.75 2.58 3.37 0.03 16 85.03 0.87 3.07 2.38 2.09 3.17 3.35 0.04 24 82.77 1.25 3.70 2.45 2.35 4.09 3.27 0.12 32 81.32 1.51 3.92 2.60 2.35 4.96 3.23 0.12 40 80.21 1.61 3.98 2.66 2.42 5.81 3.19 0.12 48 79.15 1.74 3.98 2.75 2.49 6.60 3.16 0.12 Variance Decomposition of CPI_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.08 88.52 0.03 1.42 6.34 0.84 2.67 0.10 8 0.21 58.31 0.47 5.15 18.80 0.55 16.13 0.37 12 0.14 34.60 2.24 23.14 16.81 0.49 21.00 1.57 16 0.22 25.92 4.09 38.52 11.94 0.74 16.64 1.94 24 0.76 20.27 6.47 45.68 9.35 1.18 14.72 1.58 32 1.05 19.17 7.49 43.73 9.02 1.44 16.59 1.52 40 1.12 18.90 7.77 43.04 9.38 1.64 16.60 1.55 48 1.13 18.83 7.79 42.90 9.40 1.81 16.55 1.59 Variance Decomposition of LNVNI_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 0.05 3.77 96.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.46 2.89 84.29 3.69 0.71 0.77 5.20 1.99 8 1.23 3.49 74.76 6.65 0.35 0.86 10.28 2.39 12 1.70 3.29 69.60 6.78 0.25 0.85 15.50 2.03 16 1.96 2.87 66.89 5.93 0.34 0.94 19.30 1.78 24 2.05 2.50 64.53 5.15 1.55 1.31 21.23 1.68 32 2.00 2.58 63.56 5.04 2.45 1.83 20.72 1.81 40 1.97 2.74 62.96 4.98 2.65 2.44 20.40 1.86 48 1.96 2.83 62.45 4.94 2.70 3.05 20.22 1.86 Variance Decomposition of M2_SA: 202 Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 1.79 0.00 0.00 98.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 1.18 4.09 7.61 83.42 0.42 2.15 0.90 0.23 8 2.03 4.52 12.32 70.09 0.79 2.78 7.29 0.17 12 2.69 3.69 14.11 60.22 0.78 3.08 15.24 0.19 16 2.97 3.73 14.70 54.55 0.99 3.28 19.57 0.22 24 3.02 3.93 14.73 51.59 2.68 3.63 20.11 0.30 32 2.99 3.87 14.58 51.22 2.97 4.00 19.82 0.54 40 2.98 3.87 14.50 51.10 2.98 4.31 19.68 0.57 48 2.96 3.93 14.43 50.96 3.00 4.58 19.56 0.57 Variance Decomposition of IRL_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 0.31 5.71 0.03 0.82 93.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.42 11.96 2.37 0.76 74.38 0.32 5.68 4.11 8 0.23 7.37 2.24 2.75 63.27 0.44 17.49 6.21 12 0.17 6.40 2.30 11.96 49.63 0.34 22.24 6.96 16 0.16 7.18 2.55 21.70 40.92 0.28 20.60 6.60 24 0.28 7.00 3.14 29.15 35.81 0.25 18.51 5.86 32 0.35 6.82 3.54 29.52 35.07 0.27 18.68 5.74 40 0.37 6.79 3.71 29.47 35.12 0.31 18.54 5.70 48 0.37 6.82 3.74 29.46 35.08 0.36 18.49 5.69 Variance Decomposition of LNEXU_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 1.23 4.05 0.89 0.53 1.00 92.30 0.00 0.00 4 1.64 4.92 5.80 0.53 1.41 84.39 1.00 0.31 8 2.26 4.74 6.30 0.34 3.82 78.22 3.54 0.79 12 2.60 4.94 5.60 0.65 5.09 73.71 6.66 0.75 16 2.70 5.87 4.70 1.94 5.15 70.12 8.89 0.62 24 2.53 7.72 3.29 6.04 4.20 66.33 9.36 0.52 32 2.27 8.40 2.54 8.99 3.73 65.41 8.10 0.57 40 2.06 8.72 2.17 10.60 3.78 65.02 7.07 0.57 48 1.90 9.04 1.99 11.58 3.94 64.66 6.34 0.55 Variance Decomposition of CPS_SA: Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 0.50 1.45 0.23 9.85 0.04 1.05 86.88 0.00 4 0.38 0.59 0.76 20.78 3.24 2.30 71.61 0.34 8 0.22 3.29 2.91 43.28 2.49 3.19 43.50 1.13 12 0.46 4.06 4.94 51.47 5.49 4.04 28.65 0.88 16 0.95 3.38 6.50 49.56 7.02 4.79 27.01 0.78 24 1.60 3.78 8.18 42.54 6.34 6.14 30.55 0.87 32 1.76 4.00 8.62 40.53 6.50 7.52 30.17 0.90 40 1.80 3.97 8.53 39.95 6.39 8.77 29.57 1.02 48 1.79 4.07 8.36 39.62 6.31 9.80 29.03 1.04 Variance Decomposition of IRD_SA: 203 Period IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA 1 0.00 15.28 0.02 1.91 10.26 3.47 0.02 69.04 4 0.04 21.34 0.58 3.05 20.64 3.46 5.91 44.98 8 0.06 17.86 0.58 2.15 32.24 2.63 16.36 28.13 12 0.09 12.11 0.77 8.67 30.67 1.91 24.45 21.31 16 0.08 10.35 1.23 20.21 24.78 1.47 24.37 17.51 24 0.20 9.42 2.31 33.41 19.54 1.15 19.95 14.01 32 0.35 8.91 3.06 34.78 18.57 1.09 19.96 13.28 40 0.39 8.79 3.40 34.62 18.76 1.08 19.87 13.09 48 0.40 8.79 3.49 34.55 18.84 1.10 19.79 13.05 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Bảng 2.5 : Phân rã phương sai trước và sau WTO Variance Decomposition Period IPGt CPIt CPSt IRDt M2t VNIt EXUt IPG Pre WTO 1 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 4 74.68822 2.671779 17.40898 1.930839 1.301798 1.043655 0.954729 12 69.93191 3.524416 18.41473 2.526113 3.356231 1.236738 1.009858 24 68.78325 3.472179 18.44117 3.323242 3.466090 1.218467 1.295601 48 66.04753 3.336951 18.47078 4.604289 3.390744 1.236892 2.912812 IPG Post WTO 1 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 4 92.28830 0.298923 2.774128 1.838683 0.796130 0.575731 1.428109 12 84.12015 0.508940 3.681883 2.809181 3.599522 1.254938 4.025390 24 79.69170 1.090363 5.073132 2.686074 3.660798 1.796929 6.001002 48 76.32663 1.296789 5.337267 2.631058 3.971818 2.985122 7.451316 CPI Pre WTO 1 0.015325 99.98467 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 4 10.01519 76.20327 0.261884 10.64864 0.618254 0.011593 2.241170 12 4.095535 26.98405 9.455926 14.44074 20.36972 2.384060 22.26996 24 1.917779 10.51206 11.65265 8.044717 15.43041 2.978843 49.46353 48 0.857857 4.764792 17.52599 21.96481 7.298886 1.711163 45.87651 CPI Post WTO 1 0.808080 99.19192 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 12 12.06106 31.78521 20.45415 1.955024 27.20693 4.240902 2.296722 24 12.51191 20.37789 23.20341 1.670575 31.79900 5.106616 5.330595 36 13.22557 19.02079 23.65145 1.822576 31.48207 5.589824 5.207722 48 13.23608 18.38548 23.61440 1.819663 31.37803 5.741348 5.824988 VNI Pre WTO 204 1 0.080763 0.556235 3.325138 3.482720 0.331266 92.22388 0.000000 12 0.224762 8.549239 0.756205 20.90018 12.62760 51.76325 5.178760 24 0.191841 10.36960 0.948051 30.31098 9.376704 44.52254 4.280291 48 0.171658 7.368130 5.972103 39.72640 5.162214 31.21482 10.38468 VNI Post WTO 1 2.230665 2.856226 0.005401 0.106504 4.533931 90.26727 0.000000 12 1.672065 3.992973 16.73344 1.413263 12.02765 63.03909 1.121517 24 4.744829 5.416094 17.38492 1.461877 17.92304 51.74670 1.322543 48 5.103110 5.415251 18.58951 1.575538 17.79800 50.00890 1.509697 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả PHỤ LỤC 3: MA TRẬN HỆ SỐ TƯƠNG QUAN Phụ lục 3.1: Ma trận hệ số tương quan giữa các biến trong phương trình (21) Biến CLIRD CLCPI CLIPG CLIRD 1 CLCPI 0.550 1 CLIPG 0.0135 -0.0116 1 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phụ lục 3.2: Ma trận hệ số tương quan giữa các biến trong phương trình (22) Biến CPS CPS(-1) IRD(-2) CPS 1 CPS(-1) 0.977 1 IRD(-2) -0.287 -0.211 1 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phục lục 3.3: Ma trận hệ số tương quan giữa các biến trong phương trình (24) Biến CPS IRD(-2) IRL(-2) CPS 1 IRD(-2) -0.287 1 IRL(-2) -0.154 0.902 1 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Phục lục 3.3: Ma trận hệ số tương quan giữa các biến trong phương trình (25) Biến CPS IPG IRT M2 CPS 1 IPG 0.325 1 IRT -0.428 -0.002 1 M2 0.596 0.133 0.007 1 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả PHỤ LỤC 4: KẾT QUẢ KIỂM ĐỊNH ĐỒNG LIÊN KẾT 205 Series: IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.316687 130.8246 95.75366 0.0000 At most 1 * 0.197572 74.84678 69.81889 0.0188 At most 2 0.166858 42.49014 47.85613 0.1455 At most 3 0.046189 15.65507 29.79707 0.7363 At most 4 0.041867 8. 03462 15.49471 0.3935 At most 5 0.016304 2.416463 3.841466 0.1201 Series: IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.350053 221.0164 159.5297 0.0000 At most 1 * 0.234839 157.6792 125.6154 0.0001 At most 2 * 0.228854 118.3318 95.75366 0.0006 At most 3 * 0.193462 80.12974 69.81889 0.0060 At most 4 * 0.165869 48.52416 47.85613 0.0432 At most 5 0.087816 21.86353 29.79707 0.3061 At most 6 0.050686 8.352320 15.49471 0.4285 At most 7 0.004791 0.706009 3.841466 0.4008 Series: IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.248348 155.6880 125.6154 0.0002 At most 1 * 0.243823 113.7221 95.75366 0.0017 At most 2 * 0.191719 72.63868 69.81889 0.0293 At most 3 0.133297 41.35044 47.85613 0.1778 At most 4 0.085383 20.32075 29.79707 0.4013 At most 5 0.043258 7.201022 15.49471 0.5544 At most 6 0.004754 0.700487 3.841466 0.4026 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả PHỤ LỤC 5: KẾT QUẢ PHẢN ỨNG SỐC CỦA MỘT SỐ NGHIÊN CỨU TRƯỚC Phụ lục 5.1: Phản ứng GDP trước cú sốc của các yếu tố bền ngoài như lãi suất, tăng trưởng và giá cả 206 Nguồn: Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam and Rajeev Jain (2012) Phụ lục 5.2: Phản ứng của SL, CPI, LS trước cú sốc của lãi suất Fed (giai đoạn 1998 đến 2009) Nguồn: Nguyễn Phi Lân (2010) Phụ lục 5.3 : Phản ứng của GDP, CPI, M2 trước cú sốc cỉa lãi suất tại Việt Nam (2001-2010) Nguồn: Phạm thị Tuyết Trinh (2013) Phụ lục 5.4: Phản ứng của xuất nhập khẩu trước cú sốc của lãi suất -.004 .000 .004 .008 .012 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Response of LOG(SL) to USLS -.006 -.004 -.002 .000 .002 .004 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Response of LOG(CPI) to USLS -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Response of LS to USLS Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 207 Nguồn: Piti Disyatat, Pinnarat Vongsinsirikul (2003) Phụ lục 5.5: Phản ứng của cung tiền trước cú sốc của tỉ giá, lãi suất, cung tiền và giá chứng khoán Nguồn: Nguyễn Khắc Quốc Bảo (2013) PHỤ LỤC 6: KẾT QUẢ KIỂM ĐỊNH GRANGER Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob. IRD_SA does not Granger Cause IPG_SA 148 378,423 0.0250 IPG_SA does not Granger Cause IRD_SA 0.32021 0.7265 M2_SA does not Granger Cause CPI_SA 148 111,805 3.E-05 CPI_SA does not Granger Cause M2_SA 638,965 0.0022 IRD_SA does not Granger Cause CPI_SA 148 0.57038 0.5666 CPI_SA does not Granger Cause IRD_SA 803,693 0.0005 IRD_SA does not Granger Cause M2_SA 148 266,536 0.0730 M2_SA does not Granger Cause IRD_SA 332,349 0.0388 LNVNI_SA does not Granger Cause IPG_SA 148 431,873 0.0151 IPG_SA does not Granger Cause LNVNI_SA 0.26180 0.7700 IRL_SA does not Granger Cause IPG_SA 148 288,398 0.0592 208 IPG_SA does not Granger Cause IRL_SA 119,194 0.3066 IRL_SA does not Granger Cause CPI_SA 148 327,662 0.0406 CPI_SA does not Granger Cause IRL_SA 786,558 0.0006 M2_SA does not Granger Cause LNVNI_SA 148 412,179 0.0182 LNVNI_SA does not Granger Cause M2_SA 743,933 0.0008 IRL_SA does not Granger Cause M2_SA 148 487,828 0.0089 M2_SA does not Granger Cause IRL_SA 445,590 0.0133 IRD_SA does not Granger Cause IRL_SA 148 672,181 0.0016 IRL_SA does not Granger Cause IRD_SA 122,961 1.E-05 CPS_SA does not Granger Cause IPG_SA 148 316,549 0.0452 IPG_SA does not Granger Cause CPS_SA 139,185 0.2520 CPS_SA does not Granger Cause CPI_SA 148 700,029 0.0013 CPI_SA does not Granger Cause CPS_SA 888,868 0.0002 CPS_SA does not Granger Cause M2_SA 148 254,528 0.0820 M2_SA does not Granger Cause CPS_SA 134,722 4.E-06 CPS_SA does not Granger Cause IRL_SA 148 698,817 0.0013 IRL_SA does not Granger Cause CPS_SA 102,455 7.E-05 CPS_SA does not Granger Cause LNEXU_SA 148 202,967 0.1351 LNEXU_SA does not Granger Cause CPS_SA 738,545 0.0009 IRD_SA does not Granger Cause CPS_SA 148 671,216 0.0016 CPS_SA does not Granger Cause IRD_SA 727,143 0.0010 CPS_SA does not Granger Cause LNVNI_SA 148 182,372 0.1652 LNVNI_SA does not Granger Cause CPS_SA 276,188 0.0665 LNEXU_SA does not Granger Cause M2_SA 148 420,906 0.0167 M2_SA does not Granger Cause LNEXU_SA 0.20599 0.8141 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả PHỤ LỤC 7: KIỂM ĐỊNH JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION TEST Series: IPG_SA CPI_SA LNVNI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA IRD_SA Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.316687 130.8246 95.75366 0.0000 At most 1 * 0.197572 74.84678 69.81889 0.0188 At most 2 0.166858 42.49014 47.85613 0.1455 At most 3 0.046189 15.65507 29.79707 0.7363 At most 4 0.041867 8.703462 15.49471 0.3935 At most 5 0.016304 2.416463 3.841466 0.1201 Series: IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA MIG_SA MXG_SA LNEXU_SA IRD_SA Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.350053 221.0164 159.5297 0.0000 209 At most 1 * 0.234839 157.6792 125.6154 0.0001 At most 2 * 0.228854 118.3318 95.75366 0.0006 At most 3 * 0.193462 80.12974 69.81889 0.0060 At most 4 * 0.165869 48.52416 47.85613 0.0432 At most 5 0.087816 21.86353 29.79707 0.3061 At most 6 0.050686 8.352320 15.49471 0.4285 At most 7 0.004791 0.706009 3.841466 0.4008 Series: IPG_SA CPI_SA M2_SA IRL_SA LNEXU_SA CPS_SA IRD_SA Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.248348 155.6880 125.6154 0.0002 At most 1 * 0.243823 113.7221 95.75366 0.0017 At most 2 * 0.191719 72.63868 69.81889 0.0293 At most 3 0.133297 41.35044 47.85613 0.1778 At most 4 0.085383 20.32075 29.79707 0.4013 At most 5 0.043258 7.201022 15.49471 0.5544 At most 6 0.004754 0.700487 3.841466 0.4026 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả PHỤ LỤC 8: DỮ LIỆU NGHIÊN CỨU Tháng IPG CPI CPS IRD IRL IRU EX M2 RSG VNI MXG MIG OIL 2001M12 8.00% 0.50% 21.44% 6.00% 8.520% 1.82% 15,069 27.34% 18.80% 235.40 3.62% 5.27% 15.54 2002M1 21.79% 1.34% 22.17% 6.00% 8.550% 1.73% 15,101 23.39% 12.12% 210.80 6.74% 7.76% 15.89 2002M2 0.55% 3.16% 21.26% 6.00% 8.500% 1.74% 15,151 22.03% 23.71% 191.10 6.27% 7.42% 16.93 2002M3 11.41% 3.18% 20.87% 6.00% 8.500% 1.73% 15,242 18.43% 20.22% 200.20 4.19% 5.25% 20.28 2002M4 13.91% 3.70% 21.50% 5.40% 8.460% 1.75% 15,214 19.85% 18.70% 208.50 -6.16% -1.28% 22.52 2002M5 5.65% 4.13% 21.61% 5.40% 8.460% 1.75% 15,243 20.73% 16.34% 207.10 0.48% 1.90% 23.51 2002M6 13.69% 4.30% 21.51% 5.40% 9.330% 1.75% 15,303 16.28% 17.05% 202.10 3.50% 4.91% 22.59 2002M7 14.48% 4.30% 21.24% 4.80% 9.540% 1.73% 15,303 15.90% 14.59% 197.60 2.93% 8.12% 23.51 2002M8 13.12% 4.47% 21.03% 4.80% 9.480% 1.74% 15,329 15.13% 16.07% 191.70 2.13% 11.21% 24.76 2002M9 67.72% 4.11% 21.45% 4.80% 9.480% 1.75% 15,339 14.63% 13.36% 182.10 1.12% 9.87% 26.08 2002M10 7.29% 4.63% 21.72% 4.80% 9.480% 1.75% 15,357 14.67% 11.87% 177.60 0.00% 6.23% 25.29 2002M11 5.03% 4.61% 21.56% 4.80% 9.480% 1.34% 15,376 13.45% 12.82% 177.90 6.68% 8.56% 23.38 2002M12 12.44% 4.08% 22.20% 4.80% 9.480% 1.24% 15,396 13.27% 3.69% 183.10 12.84% 15.36% 25.29 2003M1 21.52% 3.81% 22.00% 4.80% 9.480% 1.24% 15,433 17.04% 16.51% 172.40 18.03% 25.71% 28.42 2003M2 18.93% 3.72% 22.03% 4.80% 9.300% 1.26% 15,418 16.49% 4.70% 164.60 18.06% 25.12% 31.85 210 2003M3 13.72% 3.85% 22.86% 4.80% 9.460% 1.25% 15,427 17.48% 9.42% 150.50 21.33% 24.51% 30.1 2003M4 15.11% 3.85% 23.59% 6.60% 9.420% 1.26% 15,452 17.18% 10.41% 152.50 25.28% 26.49% 25.45 2003M5 26.00% 3.45% 24.40% 6.60% 9.460% 1.26% 15,478 18.16% 7.81% 152.70 20.40% 32.48% 24.95 2003M6 11.90% 3.07% 27.07% 6.00% 9.460% 1.22% 15,486 22.98% 9.69% 152.30 17.87% 34.74% 26.84 2003M7 6.26% 2.88% 26.93% 6.00% 9.530% 1.01% 15,510 21.75% 12.21% 147.30 17.30% 33.05% 27.52 2003M8 13.62% 2.68% 26.69% 5.00% 9.530% 1.03% 15,519 22.88% 13.62% 142.70 16.90% 25.00% 27.94 2003M9 18.83% 2.58% 26.59% 5.00% 9.570% 1.01% 15,537 26.56% 13.04% 139.30 17.52% 19.45% 25.23 2003M10 32.99% 2.10% 26.67% 5.00% 9.470% 1.01% 15,573 27.55% 15.79% 133.20 14.75% 15.00% 26.53 2003M11 33.76% 2.38% 27.32% 5.00% 9.540% 1.00% 15,639 28.99% 19.35% 163.90 12.96% 15.46% 27.21 2003M12 27.05% 2.94% 28.41% 5.00% 9.540% 0.98% 15,643 33.05% 23.55% 166.00 9.41% 18.52% 28.53 2004M1 6.26% 3.20% 27.80% 5.00% 9.540% 1.00% 15,670 30.56% 15.63% 210.50 7.83% 18.42% 30.35 2004M2 29.81% 4.05% 28.37% 5.00% 9.540% 1.01% 15,728 31.45% 18.28% 260.60 15.35% 22.42% 31.21 2004M3 18.53% 5.56% 33.01% 5.00% 9.540% 1.00% 15,754 34.35% 17.45% 273.30 18.07% 25.48% 32.86 2004M4 18.16% 6.12% 33.85% 5.00% 9.540% 1.01% 15,727 34.60% 18.29% 262.20 24.04% 29.98% 33.2 2004M5 20.62% 7.14% 34.67% 5.00% 9.540% 1.00% 15,746 33.22% 22.87% 251.50 20.29% 23.46% 35.73 2004M6 24.28% 8.28% 34.23% 5.00% 9.540% 1.03% 15,732 29.50% 23.00% 249.20 20.90% 21.16% 34.53 2004M7 28.33% 9.14% 35.69% 5.00% 9.540% 1.27% 15,735 30.98% 23.09% 238.40 25.05% 22.26% 36.54 2004M8 20.71% 9.90% 36.85% 5.00% 9.630% 1.43% 15,762 32.86% 21.02% 232.50 28.91% 28.74% 40.1 2004M9 13.07% 10.17% 38.47% 5.00% 9.870% 1.62% 15,755 30.50% 24.13% 233.20 25.66% 29.55% 40.56 2004M10 10.07% 10.37% 41.01% 5.00% 10.010% 1.75% 15,755 30.32% 21.80% 232.60 26.65% 27.88% 46.14 2004M11 10.42% 9.94% 43.50% 5.00% 9.540% 1.93% 15,812 31.67% 19.63% 229.60 27.15% 29.10% 42.85 2004M12 15.81% 9.68% 41.55% 5.00% 10.250% 2.16% 15,776 31.05% 17.56% 237.50 35.30% 35.05% 38.22 2005M1 32.52% 9.66% 43.07% 5.50% 10.250% 2.29% 15,817 28.07% 21.81% 233.32 38.15% 41.14% 40.18 2005M2 3.51% 9.12% 43.91% 5.50% 11.100% 2.50% 15,794 30.11% 16.90% 235.10 30.17% 39.63% 42.19 2005M3 24.95% 8.34% 40.49% 5.50% 11.100% 2.63% 15,754 27.95% 17.22% 246.51 29.25% 35.72% 47.56 2005M4 25.43% 8.38% 39.91% 6.00% 10.800% 2.78% 15,817 28.27% 18.81% 246.25 28.88% 31.12% 47.26 2005M5 24.87% 8.05% 38.73% 6.00% 10.800% 3.00% 15,732 27.81% 21.30% 244.24 33.04% 30.00% 44.03 2005M6 23.40% 7.56% 37.99% 6.00% 11.030% 3.04% 15,865 29.59% 21.05% 246.81 30.51% 30.97% 49.83 2005M7 24.64% 7.52% 36.76% 6.00% 11.030% 3.25% 15,872 28.30% 26.29% 248.48 26.01% 26.65% 53.35 2005M8 26.29% 7.31% 36.68% 6.00% 11.030% 3.49% 15,877 29.28% 22.58% 255.94 24.42% 24.67% 58.9 2005M9 31.80% 7.80% 35.92% 6.00% 11.180% 3.64% 15,885 29.73% 23.99% 289.33 25.38% 20.18% 59.64 2005M10 37.08% 8.27% 33.31% 6.00% 11.180% 3.76% 15,905 28.74% 25.57% 307.40 26.12% 20.82% 56.99 2005M11 35.64% 8.54% 29.41% 6.00% 11.400% 4.00% 15,908 28.01% 27.20% 311.33 26.32% 18.24% 53.2 2005M12 17.99% 8.82% 31.57% 6.50% 11.400% 4.16% 15,908 30.91% 34.01% 307.50 26.96% 14.29% 53.24 2006M1 13.27% 8.89% 27.52% 6.50% 11.175% 5.50% 15,923 34.63% 26.40% 312.32 22.34% 9.85% 57.85 2006M2 29.36% 8.52% 24.39% 6.50% 11.175% 5.50% 15,911 32.46% 29.46% 390.65 25.04% 11.53% 55.69 2006M3 12.79% 7.86% 23.10% 6.50% 11.175% 5.75% 15,932 35.39% 33.64% 503.56 23.28% 14.46% 55.64 2006M4 15.29% 7.41% 21.67% 6.50% 11.175% 5.75% 15,938 33.80% 28.40% 595.48 24.82% 14.46% 62.52 2006M5 14.89% 7.50% 21.65% 6.50% 11.175% 6.00% 15,960 34.08% 24.07% 538.91 24.18% 13.19% 64.4 2006M6 10.87% 7.58% 21.40% 6.50% 11.175% 6.25% 15,997 33.52% 23.22% 515.39 27.27% 15.63% 64.65 2006M7 11.69% 7.48% 21.29% 6.50% 11.175% 6.25% 16,008 34.08% 17.90% 422.41 29.49% 21.35% 67.71 2006M8 10.89% 7.46% 22.37% 6.50% 11.175% 6.25% 16,015 32.66% 24.22% 491.18 29.14% 26.18% 67.21 2006M9 13.22% 6.93% 22.74% 6.50% 11.175% 6.25% 16,052 30.33% 24.41% 526.73 24.07% 27.81% 59.37 2006M10 9.83% 6.72% 23.33% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,079 30.39% 26.10% 511.54 21.42% 27.13% 53.26 2006M11 10.89% 6.93% 24.98% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,080 30.61% 26.99% 633.05 20.95% 28.19% 52.42 2006M12 17.60% 6.56% 25.54% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,055 29.67% 21.55% 751.77 20.89% 26.56% 55.03 2007M1 20.17% 6.41% 27.55% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,048 28.81% 20.00% 1041.33 20.42% 20.42% 49.32 2007M2 5.34% 6.49% 29.29% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 15,991 33.98% 29.65% 1137.69 18.50% 17.84% 52.94 211 2007M3 10.45% 6.81% 31.58% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,025 35.60% 17.99% 1071.33 20.24% 19.13% 54.95 2007M4 9.42% 7.17% 33.28% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,048 38.96% 24.38% 923.89 22.16% 26.32% 58.2 2007M5 10.31% 7.26% 35.13% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,088 40.64% 25.42% 1081.48 22.63% 27.18% 58.9 2007M6 16.81% 7.77% 36.83% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,136 41.59% 26.20% 1024.68 21.94% 27.48% 62.35 2007M7 14.81% 8.37% 38.97% 6.50% 11.180% 6.25% 16,148 43.69% 27.20% 907.95 21.29% 26.18% 69.23 2007M8 14.65% 8.55% 39.17% 6.50% 11.180% 5.75% 16,244 43.25% 25.58% 908.37 21.89% 26.97% 67.77 2007M9 7.60% 8.80% 41.63% 6.50% 11.180% 5.25% 16,100 47.54% 24.07% 1046.86 23.07% 28.45% 73.27 2007M10 7.33% 9.30% 46.36% 6.50% 11.180% 5.00% 16,081 50.50% 26.42% 1065.09 23.78% 30.13% 79.32 2007M11 11.41% 10.03% 50.60% 6.50% 11.180% 5.00% 16,044 49.78% 27.14% 972.35 25.98% 33.61% 87.16 2007M12 10.71% 12.60% 53.89% 6.50% 11.180% 4.75% 16,030 49.11% 33.85% 927.02 29.34% 42.39% 85.28 2008M1 7.44% 14.11% 62.06% 7.50% 11.180% 3.50% 15,972 48.19% 38.44% 844.11 38.51% 69.41% 87.06 2008M2 20.18% 15.66% 63.94% 7.50% 11.180% 3.50% 15,932 41.42% 32.53% 678.12 37.87% 79.19% 89.41 2008M3 24.12% 19.39% 63.21% 7.50% 14.595% 2.50% 16,120 36.99% 36.54% 516.85 33.77% 85.61% 98.44 2008M4 16.70% 21.41% 64.00% 7.50% 14.265% 2.25% 16,127 30.49% 32.19% 522.36 26.51% 72.08% 106.64 2008M5 14.15% 25.20% 60.08% 13.00% 16.529% 2.25% 16,247 29.12% 33.43% 414.10 28.33% 74.43% 118.55 2008M6 12.07% 26.80% 54.39% 15.00% 19.114% 2.25% 16,844 25.83% 34.17% 399.40 31.80% 60.07% 127.47 2008M7 11.04% 27.04% 47.95% 15.00% 20.250% 2.25% 16,790 23.11% 33.63% 451.36 37.96% 48.64% 128.08 2008M8 8.78% 28.32% 44.49% 15.00% 20.190% 2.25% 16,570 20.99% 35.68% 539.10 39.36% 31.54% 112.83 2008M9 12.11% 27.90% 39.46% 15.00% 19.860% 2.25% 16,620 21.29% 37.58% 456.70 37.58% 22.72% 98.5 2008M10 11.31% 26.72% 32.94% 14.00% 18.000% 1.25% 16,820 18.43% 35.53% 347.05 28.63% 12.50% 73.18 2008M11 6.21% 24.23% 27.25% 12.00% 13.260% 1.25% 16,977 17.87% 34.88% 314.74 13.57% -1.44% 53.67 2008M12 -0.92% 19.90% 25.43% 9.50% 10.980% 0.50% 17,486 20.70% 30.99% 315.62 5.69% -10.6% 36.8 2009M1 16.92% 17.49% 18.80% 9.50% 10.080% 0.50% 17,484 20.76% 23.03% 303.21 -9.66% -32.8% 35 2009M2 12.81% 14.77% 17.44% 8.00% 9.390% 0.50% 17,480 24.14% 16.28% 245.74 1.01% -35.4% 34.14 2009M3 6.04% 11.24% 17.83% 8.00% 9.150% 0.50% 17,802 26.54% 22.69% 280.67 4.06% -37.9% 42.45 2009M4 4.07% 9.24% 18.49% 7.00% 9.150% 0.50% 17,784 32.47% 22.40% 321.63 7.49% -28.8% 45.19 2009M5 2.79% 5.58% 22.64% 7.00% 9.600% 0.50% 17,785 33.88% 22.54% 411.64 -6.31% -29.2% 52.67 2009M6 6.16% 3.94% 28.25% 7.00% 9.960% 0.50% 17,801 37.09% 21.67% 448.29 -14.72% -24.8% 63.09 2009M7 8.07% 3.32% 33.57% 7.00% 9.960% 0.50% 17,815 38.46% 21.94% 466.76 -17.41% -18.1% 60.44 2009M8 10.13% 1.97% 35.43% 7.00% 10.260% 0.50% 17,823 38.63% 20.67% 546.78 -20.84% -10.2% 65.28 2009M9 12.79% 2.42% 39.69% 7.00% 10.350% 0.50% 17,481 36.72% 20.59% 580.90 -20.92% -1.54% 65.28 2009M10 13.96% 2.99% 41.66% 7.00% 10.464% 0.50% 17,862 36.49% 23.32% 587.12 -13.73% 7.75% 69.82 2009M11 8.32% 4.35% 44.22% 7.00% 10.464% 0.50% 18,485 35.10% 27.49% 504.12 -1.93% 24.58% 71.99 2009M12 9.94% 6.52% 39.57% 8.00% 12.000% 0.50% 18,479 26.23% 22.89% 494.77 7.17% 34.48% 70.42 2010M1 27.93% 7.62% 38.90% 8.00% 12.000% 0.50% 18,479 22.46% 29.60% 481.96 18.13% 53.82% 72.87 2010M2 -1.03% 8.46% 38.86% 8.00% 12.000% 0.75% 19,100 22.56% 41.95% 496.91 4.20% 46.02% 72.74 2010M3 10.89% 9.46% 36.34% 8.00% 12.000% 0.75% 19,100 20.49% 38.14% 499.24 2.03% 41.52% 75.77 2010M4 9.77% 9.23% 33.05% 8.00% 13.860% 0.75% 19,000 19.44% 38.84% 542.37 0.31% 24.67% 78.8 2010M5 12.70% 9.05% 30.05% 8.00% 13.230% 0.75% 19,010 19.47% 36.24% 507.44 23.06% 26.32% 70.91 2010M6 10.62% 8.69% 28.91% 8.00% 13.230% 0.75% 19,095 22.00% 35.58% 507.14 33.73% 21.78% 70.77 2010M7 10.98% 8.19% 26.82% 8.00% 13.250% 0.75% 19,100 20.74% 34.26% 493.91 33.67% 18.75% 71.37 2010M8 10.08% 8.18% 28.46% 8.00% 13.000% 0.75% 19,500 24.98% 33.85% 455.08 36.52% 17.95% 72.07 2010M9 6.21% 8.92% 27.24% 8.00% 13.251% 0.75% 19,500 26.20% 30.67% 454.52 36.84% 14.48% 71.23 2010M10 12.84% 9.66% 28.63% 8.00% 13.251% 0.75% 19,500 25.37% 25.66% 452.63 36.11% 14.22% 76.02 2010M11 12.59% 11.09% 29.37% 9.00% 13.251% 0.75% 19,500 25.19% 21.81% 451.59 33.04% 12.39% 79.2 2010M12 6.97% 11.75% 32.43% 9.00% 15.300% 0.75% 19,500 29.71% 24.33% 484.66 34.17% 15.63% 83.98 2011M1 8.67% 12.17% 33.64% 9.00% 15.300% 0.75% 19,500 29.91% 26.01% 510.60 39.98% 22.77% 85.66 2011M2 12.32% 12.31% 34.98% 11.00% 16.418% 0.75% 20,880 28.99% 21.39% 461.37 36.69% 23.32% 86.69 212 2011M3 6.19% 13.89% 33.53% 12.00% 16.418% 0.75% 20,910 25.88% 23.31% 461.13 35.14% 28.18% 99.19 2011M4 8.38% 17.51% 32.66% 13.00% 17.910% 0.75% 20,595 22.80% 23.83% 480.08 34.56% 29.68% 108.8 2011M5 6.52% 19.78% 30.63% 14.00% 18.075% 0.75% 20,610 19.71% 20.86% 421.37 28.32% 29.46% 102.46 2011M6 12.70% 20.82% 27.29% 14.00% 18.075% 0.75% 20,620 17.45% 19.08% 432.54 28.78% 26.37% 97.3 2011M7 9.60% 22.16% 25.37% 14.00% 18.090% 0.75% 20,610 18.68% 19.54% 405.70 34.08% 19.98% 97.82 2011M8 5.81% 23.02% 23.09% 14.00% 18.090% 0.75% 20,834 20.56% 21.28% 424.71 40.76% 24.23% 89 2011M9 11.96% 22.42% 19.42% 14.00% 17.550% 0.75% 20,834 15.00% 22.69% 427.60 39.66% 28.62% 90.22 2011M10 5.30% 21.59% 17.38% 15.00% 16.695% 0.75% 21,011 12.63% 22.96% 420.81 33.38% 31.13% 92.28 2011M11 8.11% 19.83% 14.57% 15.00% 15.510% 0.75% 21,011 12.45% 28.88% 380.69 32.83% 26.07% 100.18 2011M12 7.50% 18.13% 14.31% 15.00% 15.315% 0.75% 21,036 11.94% 27.54% 351.55 29.31% 16.16% 98.71 2012M1 -2.41% 17.27% 10.86% 15.00% 14.780% 0.75% 21,036 11.79% 25.36% 387.97 17.93% 4.04% 98.99 2012M2 22.06% 16.44% 8.46% 15.00% 15.146% 0.75% 20,870 10.39% 24.79% 423.64 25.96% 9.41% 102.04 2012M3 6.50% 14.15% 8.27% 14.00% 15.214% 0.75% 20,860 13.30% 25.07% 441.03 28.31% 7.78% 105.42 2012M4 7.51% 10.54% 7.86% 13.00% 15.906% 0.75% 20,880 15.44% 24.32% 473.77 35.52% 11.99% 103.62 2012M5 6.78% 8.34% 7.81% 12.00% 16.071% 0.75% 20,890 17.55% 24.01% 429.20 27.22% 6.80% 95.57 2012M6 8.02% 6.90% 7.98% 11.00% 16.071% 0.75% 20,920 17.38% 23.83% 422.37 23.42% 9.57% 83.59 2012M7 6.10% 5.35% 7.95% 10.00% 15.886% 0.75% 20,855 17.15% 21.49% 414.50 19.02% 15.17% 86.1 2012M8 4.40% 5.04% 6.93% 10.00% 15.767% 0.75% 20,875 13.30% 18.12% 397.30 12.42% 11.00% 92.53 2012M9 9.65% 6.48% 8.21% 10.00% 15.346% 0.75% 20,895 17.80% 20.22% 392.60 13.07% 6.83% 95.98 2012M10 4.76% 7.00% 8.14% 10.00% 14.945% 0.75% 20,870 20.31% 19.33% 388.40 17.70% 5.31% 92.24 2012M11 4.87% 7.08% 8.99% 10.00% 13.760% 0.75% 20,875 22.87% 11.52% 377.80 19.69% 5.06% 89.64 2012M12 5.93% 6.81% 8.76% 9.00% 13.565% 0.75% 20,865 24.54% 10.78% 413.70 17.81% 7.36% 89.81 2013M1 21.05% 7.07% 10.47% 9.00% 13.040% 0.75% 20,865 27.88% 9.49% 479.80 28.51% 18.70% 95 2013M2 -10.1% 7.02% 10.74% 9.00% 13.214% 0.75% 20,970 29.62% 13.81% 474.60 18.34% 11.81% 95.01 2013M3 5.57% 6.64% 11.06% 8.00% 11.414% 0.75% 20,960 29.82% 11.94% 491.00 19.19% 20.17% 95.54 2013M4 5.80% 6.61% 11.42% 8.00% 12.906% 0.75% 20,960 28.43% 11.04% 474.50 5.49% 12.00% 94.41 2013M5 6.72% 6.36% 11.79% 7.00% 12.571% 0.75% 21,020 27.36% 12.56% 518.40 16.35% 23.14% 94.75 2013M6 6.51% 6.69% 12.48% 7.00% 12.650% 0.75% 21,220 27.16% 12.49% 481.10 14.60% 18.14% 93.82 2013M7 7.01% 7.29% 13.40% 7.00% 12.186% 0.75% 21,230 26.19% 13.68% 491.90 15.14% 16.38% 101.41 2013M8 4.42% 7.50% 12.82% 7.00% 12.150% 0.75% 21,180 25.79% 14.98% 472.70 13.64% 13.15% 102.96 2013M9 5.62% 6.30% 15.73% 7.00% 11.596% 0.75% 21,140 23.45% 12.57% 492.60 15.76% 15.89% 102.32 2013M10 5.93% 5.92% 18.29% 7.00% 11.495% 0.75% 21,120 22.34% 12.88% 499.10 15.59% 16.01% 96.18 2013M11 5.10% 4.50% 21.32% 7.00% 11.350% 0.75% 21,120 21.00% 11.85% 507.80 16.69% 20.38% 88.7 2013M12 4.80% 6.04% 19.46% 7.00% 10.125% 0.75% 21,115 21.34% 11.72% 504.60 14.25% 19.40% 91.85 2014M1 -2.01% 4.29% 2.33% 7.00% 10.100% 0.75% 21,095 19.78% 11.05% 556.50 15.30% 18.60% 89.59 2014M2 -3.55% 4.84% 4.31% 7.00% 10.250% 0.75% 21,120 18.12% 10.89% 586.50 15.60% 18.20% 96.89 2014M3 -12.1% 4.40% 4.66% 6.50% 10.465% 0.75% 21,125 17.45% 9.63% 591.60 13.20% 16.50% 96.18 2014M4 -11.6% 4.48% 4.08% 6.50% 10.235% 0.75% 21,120 16.67% 9.56% 573.10 13.60% 14.60% 95.22 2014M5 8.33% 4.68% 2.33% 6.50% 10.226% 0.75% 21,195 15.35% 9.78% 562.00 14.50% 13.50% 94.97 Nguồn: IMF, ADB, NHNN, GSO, HCS

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