Chi tiêu công, quản trị công và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia đang phát triển

Luận án tập trung giải quyết hai mục tiêu nghiên cứu, kiểm định mối quan hệ giữa chi tiêu công đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia đang phát triển 1998-2016 và kiểm định vai trò của quản trị công trong mối quan hệ giữa hai yếu tố này. Trước khi thực hiện phân tích thực nghiệm, luận án lược khảo lý thuyết và xây dựng khung phân tích làm cơ sở cho các kiểm định thực nghiệm. Về mối quan hệ giữa chi tiêu công và tăng trưởng kinh tế, điểm thú vị của luận án là kết hợp phân tích vai trò của ràng buộc ngân sách, nợ công và các thành phần chi tiêu công trong mối quan hệ giữa chi tiêu công và tăng trưởng. Bên cạnh đó, khám phá tác động phi tuyến của chi tiêu công sản xuất, phân tích tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng kinh tế năm 2008 cũng như sự tương tác giữa các thành phần chi tiêu công với đầu tư tư nhân cũng là điểm đặc biệt của luận án.

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Obs per group: min = 0 Time variable : t Number of groups = 63 Group variable: id Number of obs = 824 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 170 Phụ lục 3: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định ở bảng 3.4 Mô hình (3.2.1) Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(1) = 0.01 Prob > chi2 = 0.941 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(35) = 46.05 Prob > chi2 = 0.100 iv(L2.lng1) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 46.05 Prob > chi2 = 0.122 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 38.72 Prob > chi2 = 0.348 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.13 Pr > z = 0.900 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.97 Pr > z = 0.003 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.L2.lng1 Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. lng2 -.3972985 .0647874 -6.13 0.000 -.5266508 -.2679462 lng1 .0741831 .0357926 2.07 0.042 .0027208 .1456454 lnd -.1938385 .027748 -6.99 0.000 -.2492392 -.1384379 lnopen -.0165093 .0157202 -1.05 0.297 -.0478956 .014877 lnh 4.921476 .4053314 12.14 0.000 4.112206 5.730747 lnk .3999453 .0677552 5.90 0.000 .2646677 .535223 L1. -.7001648 .043595 -16.06 0.000 -.787205 -.6131246 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(7, 66) = 105.08 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 43 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 171 Mô hình (3.2.2) Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(1) = 0.18 Prob > chi2 = 0.673 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(41) = 49.28 Prob > chi2 = 0.176 iv(L2.lng1) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 49.46 Prob > chi2 = 0.200 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 39.71 Prob > chi2 = 0.572 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.70 Pr > z = 0.485 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.90 Pr > z = 0.004 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2 g1_d) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.L2.lng1 Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g1_d -.0002374 .0001409 -1.68 0.097 -.0005187 .000044 lng2 -.3105895 .0473608 -6.56 0.000 -.4051483 -.2160307 lng1 .1031825 .0444868 2.32 0.023 .0143618 .1920033 lnd -.1307711 .034762 -3.76 0.000 -.2001756 -.0613666 lnopen -.0096537 .0137878 -0.70 0.486 -.0371819 .0178745 lnh 4.530145 .3814778 11.88 0.000 3.7685 5.29179 lnk .2387587 .0389116 6.14 0.000 .1610692 .3164481 L1. -.6750146 .0345328 -19.55 0.000 -.7439616 -.6060676 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 66) = 88.37 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 50 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 172 Mô hình (3.2.3) Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(2) = 0.45 Prob > chi2 = 0.797 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(31) = 42.04 Prob > chi2 = 0.089 iv(L.lng1 L.lndecifit) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(33) = 42.50 Prob > chi2 = 0.124 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(33) = 24.45 Prob > chi2 = 0.859 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.30 Pr > z = 0.195 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.53 Pr > z = 0.012 BOD.L8.(L.lny L2.lnk lnh L2.lnopen L2.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L.lng1 L.lndecifit) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. lndecifit -.0185315 .0084916 -2.18 0.033 -.0355006 -.0015623 g1_decifit -.0007508 .0003207 -2.34 0.022 -.0013915 -.00011 lng2 -.0516356 .0516893 -1.00 0.322 -.1549284 .0516572 lng1 .1255895 .0553395 2.27 0.027 .0150024 .2361767 lnd -.1551127 .0299439 -5.18 0.000 -.2149509 -.0952745 lnopen -.0519793 .0374825 -1.39 0.170 -.1268821 .0229235 lnh 3.543295 .4643851 7.63 0.000 2.615296 4.471295 lnk .0347815 .0824735 0.42 0.675 -.1300287 .1995917 L1. -.6501791 .053367 -12.18 0.000 -.7568245 -.5435337 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(9, 63) = 900.25 avg = 13.08 Number of instruments = 42 Obs per group: min = 0 Time variable : t Number of groups = 63 Group variable: id Number of obs = 824 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 173 Mô hình (3.2.4) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 50.01 Prob > chi2 = 0.185 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 43.65 Prob > chi2 = 0.401 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.06 Pr > z = 0.949 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.52 Pr > z = 0.012 BOD.L9.(L.lny L2.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L2.lnd L.lng2 g2_d) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.L2.lng1 Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g2_d -.0000453 .0000203 -2.23 0.029 -.0000857 -4.78e-06 lng2 -.314917 .0312994 -10.06 0.000 -.3774082 -.2524257 lng1 .043755 .0386508 1.13 0.262 -.0334138 .1209237 lnd -.0626701 .0321072 -1.95 0.055 -.1267742 .001434 lnopen -.028504 .0136466 -2.09 0.041 -.0557504 -.0012576 lnh 4.655326 .4293884 10.84 0.000 3.798025 5.512628 lnk .2823224 .0575237 4.91 0.000 .1674727 .3971721 L1. -.7185377 .0342626 -20.97 0.000 -.7869451 -.6501302 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 66) = 249.69 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 50 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 174 Mô hình (3.2.5) Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(2) = 0.43 Prob > chi2 = 0.808 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(31) = 42.61 Prob > chi2 = 0.080 iv(L.lng1 L.lndecifit) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(33) = 43.03 Prob > chi2 = 0.113 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(33) = 25.00 Prob > chi2 = 0.840 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.20 Pr > z = 0.231 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.79 Pr > z = 0.005 BOD.L8.(L.lny L2.lnk lnh L2.lnopen L2.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L.lng1 L.lndecifit) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. lndecifit -.018761 .0087673 -2.14 0.036 -.0362812 -.0012409 g2_decifit -.0002421 .0000925 -2.62 0.011 -.000427 -.0000573 lng2 -.0254559 .0551661 -0.46 0.646 -.1356966 .0847848 lng1 .1044821 .0512311 2.04 0.046 .002105 .2068593 lnd -.1564722 .0279914 -5.59 0.000 -.2124085 -.1005359 lnopen -.0611375 .0380646 -1.61 0.113 -.1372036 .0149285 lnh 3.402923 .4583719 7.42 0.000 2.48694 4.318906 lnk .0200341 .0828044 0.24 0.810 -.1454373 .1855054 L1. -.6415693 .0491386 -13.06 0.000 -.7397649 -.5433737 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(9, 63) = 521.76 avg = 13.08 Number of instruments = 42 Obs per group: min = 0 Time variable : t Number of groups = 63 Group variable: id Number of obs = 824 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 175 Phụ lục 4: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định ở bảng 3.5 Mô hình với dumt Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(2) = 0.38 Prob > chi2 = 0.826 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(28) = 36.38 Prob > chi2 = 0.133 iv(L2.lnd dumt) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 36.76 Prob > chi2 = 0.184 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 30.91 Prob > chi2 = 0.420 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.20 Pr > z = 0.231 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.11 Pr > z = 0.002 BOD.L9.(L.lny lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lng) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.lnd dumt) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. dumt .1222516 .0388207 3.15 0.002 .0447436 .1997597 lng -.8024145 .0938558 -8.55 0.000 -.9898037 -.6150254 lnd -.1786374 .0429338 -4.16 0.000 -.2643575 -.0929173 lnopen .0071141 .0192555 0.37 0.713 -.0313307 .0455589 lnh 5.085828 .6550901 7.76 0.000 3.777899 6.393758 lnk .4204271 .0735591 5.72 0.000 .2735616 .5672926 L1. -.7042617 .0581 -12.12 0.000 -.8202622 -.5882613 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(7, 66) = 113.85 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 37 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 176 Mô hình với g*dumt (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 38.68 Prob > chi2 = 0.133 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 28.97 Prob > chi2 = 0.519 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.46 Pr > z = 0.145 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.19 Pr > z = 0.001 BOD.L9.(L.lny lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lng) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.lnd L2.dumt g_dumt) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g_dumt .0079857 .003027 2.64 0.010 .0019421 .0140293 dumt -.0952385 .0919042 -1.04 0.304 -.2787312 .0882542 lng -1.022262 .1419229 -7.20 0.000 -1.305621 -.7389043 lnd -.2001391 .0435839 -4.59 0.000 -.2871573 -.113121 lnopen .0098121 .0187209 0.52 0.602 -.0275654 .0471896 lnh 5.122079 .6580385 7.78 0.000 3.808263 6.435896 lnk .4129742 .0719454 5.74 0.000 .2693305 .5566179 L1. -.7104335 .0589085 -12.06 0.000 -.8280481 -.5928189 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 66) = 86.26 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 38 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 177 Phụ lục 5: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định ở bảng 3.6 Mô hình với g1,g2 (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 46.22 Prob > chi2 = 0.118 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 41.89 Prob > chi2 = 0.230 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.10 Pr > z = 0.272 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.46 Pr > z = 0.001 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.lng1 dumt) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. dumt .1060469 .0306558 3.46 0.001 .0448405 .1672532 lng2 -.3993007 .0636304 -6.28 0.000 -.5263429 -.2722585 lng1 .0354357 .0308897 1.15 0.255 -.0262375 .0971089 lnd -.1903528 .0278949 -6.82 0.000 -.2460467 -.1346588 lnopen -.0163482 .0158341 -1.03 0.306 -.0479621 .0152656 lnh 4.89276 .4060103 12.05 0.000 4.082134 5.703386 lnk .3981363 .067643 5.89 0.000 .2630827 .53319 L1. -.7056643 .0436474 -16.17 0.000 -.7928092 -.6185193 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 66) = 134.26 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 44 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 178 Mô hình với g1*dumt (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 53.51 Prob > chi2 = 0.110 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 43.88 Prob > chi2 = 0.392 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.28 Pr > z = 0.779 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.55 Pr > z = 0.011 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L.lng1 L.dumt L.g1_dumt) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g1_dumt -.0047267 .003181 -1.49 0.142 -.0110778 .0016244 dumt .0152704 .0191697 0.80 0.429 -.0230031 .0535439 lng2 -.0784232 .0333626 -2.35 0.022 -.1450338 -.0118125 lng1 .063157 .0232335 2.72 0.008 .0167699 .1095441 lnd -.3442673 .0197484 -17.43 0.000 -.3836964 -.3048383 lnopen -.064646 .0138659 -4.66 0.000 -.0923302 -.0369618 lnh 5.454763 .3999626 13.64 0.000 4.656211 6.253314 lnk .2499145 .0425681 5.87 0.000 .1649247 .3349044 L1. -.6460946 .0353382 -18.28 0.000 -.7166495 -.5755396 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(9, 66) = 150.90 avg = 17.00 Number of instruments = 51 Obs per group: min = 17 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1122 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 179 Mô hình với g2*dumt (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 47.17 Prob > chi2 = 0.101 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 38.72 Prob > chi2 = 0.348 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.25 Pr > z = 0.210 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.82 Pr > z = 0.000 BOD.L9.(L.lny L2.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.lng1 dumt g2_dumt) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g2_dumt .005189 .002856 1.82 0.074 -.0005132 .0108911 dumt .0266237 .0652919 0.41 0.685 -.1037358 .1569831 lng2 -.5634932 .0915874 -6.15 0.000 -.7463533 -.3806332 lng1 .0254991 .0309031 0.83 0.412 -.036201 .0871992 lnd -.1427133 .0356597 -4.00 0.000 -.2139101 -.0715165 lnopen -.0077181 .0157878 -0.49 0.627 -.0392394 .0238032 lnh 4.653646 .4856545 9.58 0.000 3.684006 5.623287 lnk .3979192 .0958465 4.15 0.000 .2065554 .589283 L1. -.7008049 .0413967 -16.93 0.000 -.7834561 -.6181538 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(9, 66) = 149.32 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 45 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 180 Phụ lục 6: Uớc lượng ngưỡng với chi tiêu công tổng thể Phụ lục 7: Ước lượng ngưỡng với các thành phần chi tiêu công  Các thành phần chi tiêu công sản xuất Mô hình với biến bình phương Single 16.4818 0.0141 23.50 0.7820 47.1177 52.8314 64.3829 Threshold RSS MSE Fstat Prob Crit10 Crit5 Crit1 Threshold effect test (bootstrap = 500): Th-1 15.8289 15.6937 15.8991 model Threshold Lower Upper Threshold estimator (level = 95): rho .73012701 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12254107 sigma_u .20155852 _cons .9394064 .1781889 5.27 0.000 .5835386 1.295274 lnd -.0970053 .0179491 -5.40 0.000 -.1328522 -.0611584 lnopen -.0219088 .0134744 -1.63 0.109 -.048819 .0050015 lng2 -.0729696 .0312506 -2.33 0.023 -.1353814 -.0105578 lng1_2 .0195007 .0091384 2.13 0.037 .0012501 .0377513 lng1 -.0428725 .0187744 -2.28 0.026 -.0803676 -.0053774 lnh .9708822 .1670066 5.81 0.000 .637347 1.304417 lnk .1041038 .028253 3.68 0.000 .0476787 .160529 L1. -.1679231 .02188 -7.67 0.000 -.2116204 -.1242258 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Robust (Std. Err. adjusted for 66 clusters in id) corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.9527 Prob > F = 0.0000 F(8,65) = 9.56 overall = 0.0317 max = 18 between = 0.0853 avg = 18.0 within = 0.2015 min = 18 R-sq: Obs per group: Group variable: id Number of groups = 66 Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 1,188 Trang 181 Ước lượng ngưỡng Single 16.1422 0.0138 48.29 0.0260 41.6376 45.5563 53.9712 Threshold RSS MSE Fstat Prob Crit10 Crit5 Crit1 Threshold effect test (bootstrap = 500): Th-1 2.8380 2.7101 2.9337 model Threshold Lower Upper Threshold estimator (level = 95): Trang 182 F test that all u_i=0: F(65, 1108) = 3.76 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .76334183 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12076475 sigma_u .21688972 _cons .9154043 .1185049 7.72 0.000 .682885 1.147924 1 -.1047381 .0108883 -9.62 0.000 -.126102 -.0833741 0 -.0579505 .0165947 -3.49 0.000 -.0905112 -.0253899 _cat#c.lnd 1 -.015836 .0171979 -0.92 0.357 -.0495803 .0179082 0 -.0387488 .0128329 -3.02 0.003 -.0639283 -.0135694 _cat#c.lnopen 1 -.0727874 .0221463 -3.29 0.001 -.1162409 -.0293339 0 -.0566229 .0484549 -1.17 0.243 -.1516966 .0384509 _cat#c.lng2 1 .0418384 .0218973 1.91 0.056 -.0011264 .0848033 0 -.0594302 .0274063 -2.17 0.030 -.1132044 -.005656 _cat#c.lng1 1 1.065929 .1101422 9.68 0.000 .8498183 1.28204 0 .6055889 .1411508 4.29 0.000 .3286359 .8825419 _cat#c.lnh 1 .0975974 .0186257 5.24 0.000 .0610518 .134143 0 .1347878 .0460092 2.93 0.003 .0445129 .2250627 _cat#c.lnk 1 -.1845551 .0130627 -14.13 0.000 -.2101855 -.1589246 0 -.147627 .0202091 -7.30 0.000 -.1872795 -.1079745 _cat#cL.lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.9544 Prob > F = 0.0000 F(14,1108) = 23.46 overall = 0.0345 max = 18 between = 0.0875 avg = 18.0 R-sq: within = 0.2286 Obs per group: min = 18 Group variable: id Number of groups = 66 Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 1188 Trang 183  Các thành phần chi tiêu công phi sản xuất Mô hình với biến bình phương Ước lượng ngưỡng F test that all u_i=0: F(65, 1114) = 3.66 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .73970558 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12199924 sigma_u .20566204 _cons .0837356 .2306752 0.36 0.717 -.3688712 .5363425 lnd -.0893906 .0099564 -8.98 0.000 -.108926 -.0698552 lnopen -.022435 .0118872 -1.89 0.059 -.0457587 .0008888 lng2 .4645064 .1395818 3.33 0.001 .1906336 .7383792 lng2_2 -.0957143 .0244566 -3.91 0.000 -.1437004 -.0477281 lng1 -.0060664 .0125875 -0.48 0.630 -.0307643 .0186314 lnh .9862042 .1036023 9.52 0.000 .7829266 1.189482 lnk .113838 .0181452 6.27 0.000 .0782354 .1494405 L1. -.1608108 .0115786 -13.89 0.000 -.1835291 -.1380924 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.9531 Prob > F = 0.0000 F(8,1114) = 36.69 overall = 0.0320 max = 18 between = 0.0825 avg = 18.0 within = 0.2085 min = 18 R-sq: Obs per group: Group variable: id Number of groups = 66 Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 1,188 Single 16.1413 0.0138 48.36 0.0740 44.5881 50.7206 61.0382 Threshold RSS MSE Fstat Prob Crit10 Crit5 Crit1 Threshold effect test (bootstrap = 500): Th-1 17.0257 16.1500 17.0997 model Threshold Lower Upper Threshold estimator (level = 95): Trang 184 rho .75684374 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12069791 sigma_u .21294142 _cons .8319255 .1567944 5.31 0.000 .5187855 1.145066 1 -.0949534 .0208354 -4.56 0.000 -.1365645 -.0533423 0 -.0909478 .0194028 -4.69 0.000 -.1296979 -.0521976 _cat#c.lnd 1 .0043934 .0262897 0.17 0.868 -.0481107 .0568975 0 -.0191632 .0113861 -1.68 0.097 -.0419029 .0035765 _cat#c.lnopen 1 -.1703028 .0490659 -3.47 0.001 -.2682942 -.0723113 0 .040309 .0411519 0.98 0.331 -.041877 .1224949 _cat#c.lng2 1 -.0061991 .0217692 -0.28 0.777 -.0496751 .0372769 0 -.0011484 .0235559 -0.05 0.961 -.0481928 .0458961 _cat#c.lng1 1 .9686113 .1676118 5.78 0.000 .6338674 1.303355 0 1.106135 .1765459 6.27 0.000 .7535481 1.458721 _cat#c.lnh 1 .1772754 .0354948 4.99 0.000 .1063873 .2481635 0 .0244527 .0225158 1.09 0.281 -.0205145 .0694198 _cat#c.lnk 1 -.1583891 .0199812 -7.93 0.000 -.1982943 -.1184838 0 -.1763973 .0229924 -7.67 0.000 -.2223162 -.1304783 _cat#cL.lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Robust (Std. Err. adjusted for 66 clusters in id) corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.9525 Prob > F = 0.0000 F(14,65) = 12.44 overall = 0.0347 max = 18 between = 0.0809 avg = 18.0 R-sq: within = 0.2295 Obs per group: min = 18 Group variable: id Number of groups = 66 Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 1188 Trang 185 Phụ lục 8: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định bảng 3.8 Mô hình với chi tiêu công sản xuất nhỏ hơn 2.838% GDP F test that all u_i=0: F(17, 153) = 3.78 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .92806494 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .11929512 sigma_u .42849087 _cons 1.173643 .3007697 3.90 0.000 .5794452 1.767841 g1_d .0000414 .0001883 0.22 0.826 -.0003306 .0004134 lnd -.0907252 .0308952 -2.94 0.004 -.1517615 -.0296889 lnopen -.0243259 .0160959 -1.51 0.133 -.0561248 .0074729 lng2 -.040011 .075386 -0.53 0.596 -.1889429 .1089208 lng1 -.0773586 .0583727 -1.33 0.187 -.1926792 .0379619 lnh 1.938888 .4067759 4.77 0.000 1.135266 2.742511 lnk .1046086 .0731972 1.43 0.155 -.0399991 .2492163 L1. -.3088611 .0431281 -7.16 0.000 -.3940646 -.2236575 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] F test that all u_i=0: F(15, 108) = 2.43 Prob > F = 0.0044 rho .88278566 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12558526 sigma_u .34464812 _cons .7650912 .3182156 2.40 0.018 .1343327 1.39585 g1_decifit -.0130657 .0073531 -1.78 0.078 -.0276408 .0015093 lndecifit .0053669 .0178401 0.30 0.764 -.0299953 .0407291 lnopen -.0229085 .0188635 -1.21 0.227 -.0602992 .0144821 lng2 -.0881811 .1067372 -0.83 0.411 -.2997526 .1233905 lng1 -.0453106 .0807109 -0.56 0.576 -.2052936 .1146724 lnh 1.820842 .4744666 3.84 0.000 .8803666 2.761317 lnk .0673797 .0838501 0.80 0.423 -.0988257 .2335851 L1. -.2439928 .0473845 -5.15 0.000 -.3379171 -.1500685 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Trang 186 Mô hình với chi tiêu công sản xuất lớn 2.838% GDP F test that all u_i=0: F(60, 940) = 3.46 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .74963985 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .11982438 sigma_u .20734279 _cons .9009679 .1553284 5.80 0.000 .5961373 1.205799 g1_d -1.30e-06 .0000355 -0.04 0.971 -.0000709 .0000683 lnd -.1036009 .0183566 -5.64 0.000 -.1396256 -.0675761 lnopen -.0059435 .0266477 -0.22 0.824 -.0582394 .0463524 lng2 -.0840092 .0244172 -3.44 0.001 -.1319278 -.0360906 lng1 .0325709 .0249592 1.30 0.192 -.0164113 .0815531 lnh .9681091 .1156804 8.37 0.000 .7410875 1.195131 lnk .0998857 .019196 5.20 0.000 .0622138 .1375577 L1. -.1711748 .0136777 -12.51 0.000 -.1980172 -.1443324 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] F test that all u_i=0: F(60, 767) = 2.27 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .78238929 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12266135 sigma_u .23258358 _cons .1202973 .1425451 0.84 0.399 -.1595275 .400122 g1_decifit -.0004002 .0002586 -1.55 0.122 -.0009078 .0001074 lndecifit -.0177849 .0074631 -2.38 0.017 -.0324353 -.0031344 lnopen -.0769183 .0305031 -2.52 0.012 -.1367978 -.0170388 lng2 .0005341 .0319022 0.02 0.987 -.0620918 .0631601 lng1 .0843445 .0284533 2.96 0.003 .0284889 .1402002 lnh 1.032803 .1328142 7.78 0.000 .7720803 1.293525 lnk .1471114 .0216848 6.78 0.000 .1045428 .18968 L1. -.1515213 .0155902 -9.72 0.000 -.1821258 -.1209168 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Trang 187 Mô hình với Chi tiêu công phi sản xuất nhỏ hơn hoặc bằng 17.0257% GDP rho .7982318 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .10847372 sigma_u .21575591 _cons 1.614606 .2561065 6.30 0.000 1.110939 2.118273 g2_d .0000311 .0000383 0.81 0.417 -.0000442 .0001064 lnd -.148606 .0285996 -5.20 0.000 -.2048509 -.092361 lnopen -.1036029 .0324123 -3.20 0.002 -.1673459 -.0398599 lng2 .0631894 .0424192 1.49 0.137 -.0202334 .1466122 lng1 -.0124954 .0299881 -0.42 0.677 -.0714708 .04648 lnh 1.151853 .1983974 5.81 0.000 .7616784 1.542027 lnk .0221578 .0279809 0.79 0.429 -.0328702 .0771858 L1. -.2246711 .027572 -8.15 0.000 -.278895 -.1704471 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] F test that all u_i=0: F(56, 719) = 4.02 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .84047671 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12375466 sigma_u .2840615 _cons .6773377 .1937254 3.50 0.001 .2970027 1.057673 g2_d -.0000298 .0000146 -2.04 0.042 -.0000586 -1.09e-06 lnd -.0674218 .0210057 -3.21 0.001 -.1086617 -.0261819 lnopen .0148656 .0253535 0.59 0.558 -.0349102 .0646414 lng2 -.1672702 .0424303 -3.94 0.000 -.2505723 -.0839682 lng1 .0171787 .0163095 1.05 0.293 -.0148413 .0491987 lnh 1.293849 .1424963 9.08 0.000 1.01409 1.573607 lnk .1752603 .0262288 6.68 0.000 .1237662 .2267544 L1. -.1918142 .014508 -13.22 0.000 -.2202972 -.1633311 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Trang 188 Mô hình với Chi tiêu công phi sản xuất lớn hơn 17.0257%GDP F test that all u_i=0: F(33, 283) = 2.16 Prob > F = 0.0004 rho .84385325 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .11572228 sigma_u .26901963 _cons .8480138 .2313777 3.67 0.000 .3925741 1.303454 lndecifit -.0124316 .0111519 -1.11 0.266 -.0343829 .0095196 g2_decifit -.0001138 .0005901 -0.19 0.847 -.0012754 .0010479 lnopen -.1710245 .0382066 -4.48 0.000 -.2462296 -.0958193 lng2 .0737627 .0558044 1.32 0.187 -.0360816 .1836071 lng1 .0299674 .0392114 0.76 0.445 -.0472155 .1071504 lnh 1.362305 .2438442 5.59 0.000 .8823266 1.842284 lnk .0636433 .034767 1.83 0.068 -.0047915 .1320781 L1. -.2040611 .0336836 -6.06 0.000 -.2703632 -.137759 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] F test that all u_i=0: F(55, 579) = 2.46 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .83448537 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e .12623729 sigma_u .28345156 _cons .0154374 .1897052 0.08 0.935 -.3571568 .3880315 lndecifit -.015998 .0096401 -1.66 0.098 -.0349318 .0029357 g2_decifit -.0001731 .0000926 -1.87 0.062 -.000355 8.91e-06 lnopen -.0535399 .0285484 -1.88 0.061 -.109611 .0025313 lng2 -.0700526 .0584424 -1.20 0.231 -.1848374 .0447323 lng1 .02506 .0181827 1.38 0.169 -.0106521 .0607721 lnh 1.230198 .1618898 7.60 0.000 .9122352 1.548161 lnk .2233786 .0295911 7.55 0.000 .1652595 .2814976 L1. -.159703 .0170142 -9.39 0.000 -.19312 -.1262859 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Trang 189 Phụ lục 9: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định bảng 4.2 Mô hình (4.1.5) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 35.47 Prob > chi2 = 0.226 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 31.41 Prob > chi2 = 0.396 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.45 Pr > z = 0.654 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.14 Pr > z = 0.032 BOD.L9.(L.lny lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lng) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.lnd L2.gov) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. gov .370416 .1006913 3.68 0.000 .1693794 .5714526 lng -.7903694 .0994127 -7.95 0.000 -.9888533 -.5918855 lnd -.2273191 .0416337 -5.46 0.000 -.3104435 -.1441947 lnopen -.0089588 .0207315 -0.43 0.667 -.0503505 .0324329 lnh 5.165118 .5837569 8.85 0.000 3.99961 6.330627 lnk .3954817 .0866878 4.56 0.000 .2224039 .5685596 L1. -.7231629 .067736 -10.68 0.000 -.8584023 -.5879236 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(7, 66) = 92.46 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 37 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 190 Mô hình (4.1.6) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 39.27 Prob > chi2 = 0.120 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 26.61 Prob > chi2 = 0.643 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = 0.14 Pr > z = 0.887 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.31 Pr > z = 0.021 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk lnh L.lnopen lng) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.gov L2.g_gov L2.lnd) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g_gov -.0175024 .0092008 -1.90 0.062 -.0358725 .0008676 gov .8392767 .2085764 4.02 0.000 .4228405 1.255713 lng -.9986305 .2067589 -4.83 0.000 -1.411438 -.585823 lnd -.2230047 .0376915 -5.92 0.000 -.2982583 -.1477511 lnopen -.0478761 .028315 -1.69 0.096 -.1044088 .0086566 lnh 4.577201 .4614285 9.92 0.000 3.65593 5.498473 lnk .3073805 .1054045 2.92 0.005 .0969336 .5178274 L1. -.6830948 .0500254 -13.65 0.000 -.7829737 -.583216 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 66) = 55.27 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 38 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 191 Phụ lục 10: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định bảng 4.3 Mô hình (4.1.7) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 30.15 Prob > chi2 = 0.458 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(30) = 38.42 Prob > chi2 = 0.139 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = 0.49 Pr > z = 0.622 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.14 Pr > z = 0.002 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L2.gov1) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.lnd L2.lng) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. gov1 .3289868 .0505666 6.51 0.000 .2269392 .4310343 lng -.0889888 .0212099 -4.20 0.000 -.131792 -.0461855 lnd -.1582068 .0124337 -12.72 0.000 -.1832991 -.1331145 lnopen -.0376926 .0030256 -12.46 0.000 -.0437985 -.0315867 lnh 4.164927 .2577572 16.16 0.000 3.644752 4.685103 lnk .1842308 .0338877 5.44 0.000 .1158426 .252619 L1. -.5805375 .0223549 -25.97 0.000 -.6256514 -.5354235 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(7, 42) = 299.95 avg = 13.21 Number of instruments = 37 Obs per group: min = 0 Time variable : t Number of groups = 42 Group variable: id Number of obs = 555 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 192 Mô hình (4.1.8) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(18) = 17.52 Prob > chi2 = 0.487 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(18) = 16.80 Prob > chi2 = 0.537 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.06 Pr > z = 0.288 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = 0.01 Pr > z = 0.991 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnh L.lng) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L.lnk L2.lnd L2.gov2 L.lnopen) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. gov2 .4222937 .195518 2.16 0.037 .0261366 .8184508 lng -.7938322 .1664934 -4.77 0.000 -1.13118 -.4564845 lnd -.1358241 .0344387 -3.94 0.000 -.2056035 -.0660447 lnopen .0364071 .1421109 0.26 0.799 -.2515369 .3243511 lnh 5.465607 .5415882 10.09 0.000 4.368245 6.562969 lnk .9276041 .1256408 7.38 0.000 .6730317 1.182176 L1. -.9403602 .0769694 -12.22 0.000 -1.096315 -.7844053 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(7, 37) = 42.63 avg = 11.70 Number of instruments = 25 Obs per group: min = 0 Time variable : t Number of groups = 37 Group variable: id Number of obs = 433 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 193 Mô hình (4.1.9) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(24) = 26.19 Prob > chi2 = 0.344 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(24) = 24.66 Prob > chi2 = 0.424 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = 0.56 Pr > z = 0.576 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.56 Pr > z = 0.010 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnh L.lnopen L2.gov1) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L.lnk L2.lnd L2.lng g_gov1) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g_gov1 -.0300776 .0045124 -6.67 0.000 -.039184 -.0209711 gov1 1.554093 .1872941 8.30 0.000 1.176118 1.932068 lng -.7395381 .1375875 -5.38 0.000 -1.017201 -.4618752 lnd -.1632313 .0233036 -7.00 0.000 -.2102599 -.1162027 lnopen -.101359 .0115597 -8.77 0.000 -.1246874 -.0780306 lnh 4.752631 .2290284 20.75 0.000 4.290433 5.214829 lnk .1698231 .0334223 5.08 0.000 .1023742 .2372721 L1. -.63701 .0283783 -22.45 0.000 -.6942797 -.5797403 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 42) = 348.34 avg = 13.21 Number of instruments = 32 Obs per group: min = 0 Time variable : t Number of groups = 42 Group variable: id Number of obs = 555 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 194 Mô hình (4.1.10) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(24) = 24.81 Prob > chi2 = 0.416 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(24) = 17.26 Prob > chi2 = 0.837 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.17 Pr > z = 0.240 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = 1.10 Pr > z = 0.269 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnh lng L.lnd) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L.lnk L2.gov2 L.lnopen L.g_gov2) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g_gov2 .0129843 .001958 6.63 0.000 .009017 .0169517 gov2 .2130763 .1259962 1.69 0.099 -.0422163 .4683688 lng -.5140647 .0309641 -16.60 0.000 -.5768038 -.4513255 lnd -.3405788 .0150799 -22.58 0.000 -.3711336 -.3100239 lnopen .0594573 .047667 1.25 0.220 -.0371253 .1560399 lnh 5.880638 .1895438 31.03 0.000 5.496586 6.26469 lnk .6670988 .0309639 21.54 0.000 .60436 .7298377 L1. -.9455136 .0339357 -27.86 0.000 -1.014274 -.8767533 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 37) = 79636.88 avg = 11.57 Number of instruments = 32 Obs per group: min = 0 Time variable : t Number of groups = 37 Group variable: id Number of obs = 428 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 195 Phụ lục 11: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định bảng 4.4 Mô hình (4.1.11) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 51.89 Prob > chi2 = 0.141 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 42.25 Prob > chi2 = 0.460 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.38 Pr > z = 0.702 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.80 Pr > z = 0.005 BOD.L9.(L.lny lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(gov L.lng1) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. gov .3028796 .0505253 5.99 0.000 .2020026 .4037566 lng2 -.3143731 .0569424 -5.52 0.000 -.4280623 -.200684 lng1 .0640412 .0238633 2.68 0.009 .0163965 .1116858 lnd -.1870751 .0258223 -7.24 0.000 -.238631 -.1355193 lnopen -.031883 .012371 -2.58 0.012 -.0565824 -.0071836 lnh 4.272786 .3471601 12.31 0.000 3.579659 4.965914 lnk .2825104 .069151 4.09 0.000 .1444459 .4205749 L1. -.7200727 .0274209 -26.26 0.000 -.7748203 -.6653251 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(8, 66) = 192.95 avg = 17.00 Number of instruments = 50 Obs per group: min = 17 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1122 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 196 Mô hình (4.1.12) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(49) = 51.22 Prob > chi2 = 0.387 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(49) = 39.96 Prob > chi2 = 0.818 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.69 Pr > z = 0.488 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.13 Pr > z = 0.033 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen lnd L.lng2 L.g1_gov) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(gov L.lng1) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g1_gov .0403943 .0093744 4.31 0.000 .0216778 .0591109 gov .1105633 .059007 1.87 0.065 -.0072479 .2283745 lng2 -.3566658 .033334 -10.70 0.000 -.4232193 -.2901123 lng1 .1058857 .029641 3.57 0.001 .0467055 .1650659 lnd -.2220396 .0179836 -12.35 0.000 -.2579451 -.1861342 lnopen -.0024031 .0083831 -0.29 0.775 -.0191405 .0143343 lnh 4.854801 .2423009 20.04 0.000 4.371032 5.338571 lnk .2395001 .0385151 6.22 0.000 .1626022 .316398 L1. -.7474165 .0233477 -32.01 0.000 -.7940315 -.7008014 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(9, 66) = 583.01 avg = 17.00 Number of instruments = 58 Obs per group: min = 17 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1122 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 197 Mô hình (4.1.13) Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(2) = 1.13 Prob > chi2 = 0.568 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(40) = 49.76 Prob > chi2 = 0.139 iv(L2.gov L2.lng1) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 50.89 Prob > chi2 = 0.163 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 46.55 Prob > chi2 = 0.291 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.04 Pr > z = 0.968 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.80 Pr > z = 0.000 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L2.lnd lng2 g2_gov) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.gov L2.lng1) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g2_gov -.0067004 .0039141 -1.71 0.092 -.0145151 .0011143 gov .4509876 .0998467 4.52 0.000 .2516371 .650338 lng2 -.5019583 .0706338 -7.11 0.000 -.6429833 -.3609333 lng1 .0980478 .0433627 2.26 0.027 .0114712 .1846243 lnd -.0724338 .0182934 -3.96 0.000 -.1089577 -.0359098 lnopen -.0489357 .0124571 -3.93 0.000 -.073807 -.0240643 lnh 3.819217 .2324935 16.43 0.000 3.355029 4.283406 lnk .4105174 .0463574 8.86 0.000 .3179619 .5030728 L1. -.6655376 .02367 -28.12 0.000 -.7127963 -.6182789 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(9, 66) = 425.88 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 51 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 198 Phụ lục 12: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định bảng 4.5 Mô hình (4.2.1) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 42.63 Prob > chi2 = 0.207 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 36.51 Prob > chi2 = 0.445 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.50 Pr > z = 0.619 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.67 Pr > z = 0.008 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lng L.lnd) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.gov polity) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. polity .1128028 .0444985 2.53 0.014 .0239587 .2016469 gov .3483783 .0790044 4.41 0.000 .1906408 .5061158 lng -.6967036 .0796846 -8.74 0.000 -.8557989 -.5376082 lnd -.1603546 .0342433 -4.68 0.000 -.2287236 -.0919856 lnopen -.0068636 .0131322 -0.52 0.603 -.0330828 .0193556 lnh 4.154215 .3134524 13.25 0.000 3.528387 4.780043 lnk .3766332 .0835964 4.51 0.000 .2097276 .5435388 L1. -.7017955 .0422847 -16.60 0.000 -.7862196 -.6173715 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(8, 66) = 122.82 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 44 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 199 Mô hình (4.2.2) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 42.94 Prob > chi2 = 0.198 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(36) = 31.34 Prob > chi2 = 0.690 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.31 Pr > z = 0.756 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -1.83 Pr > z = 0.068 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lng L.lnd) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L2.gov L2.polity g_polity) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. g_polity -.0378225 .0133203 -2.84 0.006 -.0644173 -.0112277 polity 1.867991 .5758898 3.24 0.002 .7181898 3.017792 gov .2915923 .0782526 3.73 0.000 .1353559 .4478286 lng -.1956149 .1045248 -1.87 0.066 -.4043055 .0130756 lnd -.1805501 .0297587 -6.07 0.000 -.2399652 -.1211349 lnopen -.0157192 .0176168 -0.89 0.375 -.0508922 .0194538 lnh 4.603166 .3621661 12.71 0.000 3.880078 5.326254 lnk .0810091 .0862773 0.94 0.351 -.0912491 .2532673 L1. -.7872688 .0452364 -17.40 0.000 -.8775861 -.6969515 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16 F(9, 66) = 80.87 avg = 16.00 Number of instruments = 45 Obs per group: min = 16 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1056 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 200 Phụ lục 13: Chi tiết kết quả kiểm định bảng 4.6 Mô hình (4.2.3) Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(3) = 1.82 Prob > chi2 = 0.612 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(39) = 50.11 Prob > chi2 = 0.109 iv(gov L.lng1 L.polity) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 51.93 Prob > chi2 = 0.140 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(42) = 41.87 Prob > chi2 = 0.477 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.39 Pr > z = 0.697 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.78 Pr > z = 0.005 BOD.L9.(L.lny lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(gov L.lng1 L.polity) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. polity .1544675 .0885702 1.74 0.086 -.0223686 .3313036 gov .2931037 .050497 5.80 0.000 .1922833 .3939242 lng2 -.308717 .0574572 -5.37 0.000 -.423434 -.1939999 lng1 .0596886 .0242939 2.46 0.017 .0111843 .108193 lnd -.1877847 .0257734 -7.29 0.000 -.2392429 -.1363265 lnopen -.0315659 .0124343 -2.54 0.013 -.0563918 -.0067399 lnh 4.282595 .3483411 12.29 0.000 3.58711 4.978081 lnk .2762728 .0688803 4.01 0.000 .1387489 .4137967 L1. -.7240567 .0278932 -25.96 0.000 -.7797472 -.6683662 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(9, 66) = 270.38 avg = 17.00 Number of instruments = 51 Obs per group: min = 17 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1122 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 201 Mô hình (4.2.4) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(49) = 56.87 Prob > chi2 = 0.205 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(49) = 46.30 Prob > chi2 = 0.583 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.97 Pr > z = 0.334 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.22 Pr > z = 0.001 BOD.L9.(L.lny lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2 g1_polity) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(gov L.lng1 L.polity) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. polity .0547222 .1571188 0.35 0.729 -.2589756 .3684201 g1_polity .0203814 .0219448 0.93 0.356 -.0234327 .0641955 gov .2842921 .0404788 7.02 0.000 .2034737 .3651106 lng2 -.2434765 .0331866 -7.34 0.000 -.3097356 -.1772174 lng1 .0289391 .0192722 1.50 0.138 -.0095391 .0674173 lnd -.1823973 .0155816 -11.71 0.000 -.2135069 -.1512877 lnopen -.0414907 .008296 -5.00 0.000 -.0580542 -.0249271 lnh 4.005354 .1988208 20.15 0.000 3.608396 4.402313 lnk .2428466 .0501811 4.84 0.000 .1426569 .3430363 L1. -.6879698 .0168843 -40.75 0.000 -.7216805 -.6542591 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(10, 66) = 625.35 avg = 17.00 Number of instruments = 59 Obs per group: min = 17 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1122 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Trang 202 Mô hình (4.2.5) (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(49) = 57.01 Prob > chi2 = 0.202 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(49) = 37.29 Prob > chi2 = 0.890 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.83 Pr > z = 0.409 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.13 Pr > z = 0.002 BOD.L9.(L.lny L.lnk L.lnh L.lnopen L.lnd L.lng2 g2_polity) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) FOD.(L.gov L.lng1 L.polity) Standard Instruments for orthogonal deviations equation Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable. polity 1.206643 .1641697 7.35 0.000 .8788676 1.534419 g2_polity -.0434093 .0070251 -6.18 0.000 -.0574353 -.0293833 gov .2600435 .0392098 6.63 0.000 .1817586 .3383283 lng2 -.1072464 .0458658 -2.34 0.022 -.1988204 -.0156724 lng1 .0412232 .020791 1.98 0.052 -.0002874 .0827339 lnd -.1596901 .0107095 -14.91 0.000 -.1810722 -.138308 lnopen -.0524181 .0065771 -7.97 0.000 -.0655498 -.0392865 lnh 3.807657 .1921121 19.82 0.000 3.424092 4.191221 lnk .2021606 .031057 6.51 0.000 .1401532 .2641679 L1. -.7002118 .0182854 -38.29 0.000 -.7367198 -.6637038 lny D.lny Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Prob > F = 0.000 max = 17 F(10, 66) = 1268.76 avg = 17.00 Number of instruments = 59 Obs per group: min = 17 Time variable : t Number of groups = 66 Group variable: id Number of obs = 1122 Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM

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