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PHẦN PHỤ LỤC 1.1 Phần phụ lục Bảng Bảng A.1 Danh sách các nước được chọn làm mẫu nghiên cứu Albania Ghana Mali Samoa Armenia Republic Guinea Mauritius Senegal Benin India Mozambique Solomon Islands Bolivia Indonesia Myanmar South Africa Botswana Jamaica Namibia Tanzania Burkina Faso Jordan Niger Thailand Cameroon Kenya Nigeria Togo Cote d'Ivoire Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Uganda Dominican Republic Lesotho Philippines Zambia Egypt Malaysia Rwanda Bảng A.2 Các hệ số cho điểm xoay varimax (PCA lần đầu, giai đoạn 2008-2012) Variable Comp1 Unexplained Khía cạnh sẵn có - zBranches 0,7071 0,3097 - zATMs 0,7071 0,3097 Khía cạnh sử dụng - zdeposits 0,7071 0,0786 - zloans 0,7071 0,0786 Bảng A.3 Các hệ số cho điểm xoay varimax (PCA lần đầu, giai đoạn 2013-2018) Variable Comp1 Unexplained Khía cạnh tiếp cận - zDBaccounts -0,7071 0,4045 - zMBaccounts 0,7071 0,4045 Khía cạnh sẵn có - zBranches 0,5601 0,4686 - zATMs 0,6152 0,3590 - zMBagents -0,5548 0,4786 Khía cạnh sử dụng - zdeposits 0,6507 0,1755 - zloans 0,6570 0,1594 - zMB -0,3807 0,7178 Bảng A.4 Kiểm tra KMO (PCA lần đầu, giai đoạn nghiên cứu 2008-2012) Variable KMO Khía cạnh sẵn có Overall 0,5000 - zBranches 0,5000 - zATMs 0,5000 Khía cạnh sử dụng Overall 0,5000 - zdeposits 0,5000 - zloans 0,5000 Bảng A.5 Kiểm tra KMO (PCA lần đầu, giai đoạn nghiên cứu 2013-2018) Variable KMO Khía cạnh tiếp cận Overall 0,5000 - zDBaccounts 0,5000 - zMBaccounts 0,5000 Khía cạnh sg Overall 0,6269 - zBranches 0,6445 - zATMs 0,5982 - zMBagents 0,6508 Usage dimension Overall 0,5562 - zdeposits 0,5358 - zloans 0,5345 - zMBGDP 0,8677 Bảng A.6 Chỉ số FI theo khía cạnh (kết quả PCA lần đầu, giai đoạn 2008-2012) Quốc gia Trung bình các chỉ số theo khía cạnh Quốc gia Trung bình các chỉ số theo khía cạnh Khả dụng Sử dụng Khả dụng Sử dụng Albania 0,7052 0,4338 Malaysia 0,6157 0,9319 Armenia, Republic 0,6390 0,1881 Mali 0,0633 0,1655 Benin 0,3134 0,2542 Mauritius 0,7490 0,9382 Bolivia 0,5828 0,2726 Mozambique 0,1250 0,2155 Botswana 0,4089 0,2713 Myanmar 0,0027 0,0312 Burkina Faso 0,1367 0,1916 Namibia 0,8218 0,3884 Cameroon 0,0212 0,1028 Niger 0,0358 0,1086 Cote d'Ivoire 0,0690 0,1654 Nigeria 0,1832 0,1408 Dominican Republic 0,4206 0,1573 Pakistan 0,1907 0,2081 Egypt 0,1296 0,4132 Philippines 0,2508 0,2296 Ghana 0,1031 0,1643 Rwanda 0,3444 0,1140 Guinea 0,1025 0,0213 Samoa 0,7369 0,3812 India 0,6843 0,5061 Senegal 0,0817 0,2015 Indonesia 0,3300 0,2637 Solomon Islands 0,2459 0,1989 Jamaica 0,4190 0,2649 South Africa 0,6015 0,5079 Jordan 0,4933 0,8501 Tanzania 0,0438 0,1279 Kenya 0,1301 0,2369 Thailand 0,8664 0,6301 Kyrgyz Republic 0,1901 0,1104 Togo 0,3039 0,3036 Lesotho 0,0967 0,1596 Uganda 0,0591 0,1117 Zambia 0,1343 0,1115 Bảng A.7 Chỉ số FI theo khía cạnh (kết quả PCA lần đầu, giai đoạn 2013-2018) Quốc gia Trung bình các chỉ số theo khía cạnh Quốc gia Trung bình các chỉ số theo khía cạnh Tiếp cận Khả dụng Sử dụng Tiếp cận Khả dụng Sử dụng Albania 0,2031 0,8012 0,5211 Malaysia 0,0282 0,7420 0,9466 Armenia, Republic 0,2425 0,8825 0,4193 Mali 0,5986 0,4557 0,2637 Benin 0,5759 0,5546 0,3400 Mauritius 0,0690 0,8271 0,9343 Bolivia 0,3665 0,9466 0,5022 Mozambique 0,5267 0,5683 0,3847 Botswana 0,5726 0,6730 0,3555 Myanmar 0,4524 0,5171 0,2888 Burkina Faso 0,5742 0,5170 0,3130 Namibia 0,4403 0,9141 0,6196 Cameroon 0,5598 0,4534 0,2422 Niger 0,5320 0,4524 0,2602 Cote d'Ivoire 0,7417 0,4482 0,2647 Nigeria 0,3546 0,5708 0,2554 Dominican Republic 0,3566 0,7146 0,3117 Pakistan 0,4660 0,5517 0,2917 Egypt 0,4105 0,5792 0,5522 Philippines 0,4253 0,6356 0,3939 Ghana 0,6207 0,3268 0,1583 Rwanda 0,2704 0,5135 0,2276 Guinea 0,5430 0,5043 0,1947 Samoa 0,2704 0,9078 0,4840 India 0,2345 0,8467 0,5852 Senegal 0,5898 0,4012 0,3537 Indonesia 0,3616 0,7955 0,4139 Solomon Islands 0,4486 0,5728 0,3099 Jamaica 0,0621 0,6782 0,4162 South Africa 0,2123 0,7868 0,5476 Jordan 0,3927 0,7008 0,8521 Tanzania 0,9280 0,3084 0,0992 Kenya 0,5566 0,4268 0,2628 Thailand 0,2721 0,9710 0,7570 Kyrgyz Republic 0,4294 0,6371 0,2922 Togo 0,4820 0,6125 0,4949 Lesotho 0,6124 0,4759 0,2817 Uganda 0,7147 0,3832 0,0781 Zambia 0,6625 0,5113 0,2654 Bảng A.8 Kiểm tra KMO (PCA lần hai, giai đoạn 2008-2012) Variable KMO zDBaccounts 0,7018 zFIIa 0,7985 zFIIu 0,7337 Overall 0.7406 Bảng A.9 Kiểm tra KMO (PCA lần hai, giai đoạn 2013-2018) Variable KMO zFIIp 0,7296 zFIIa 0,7346 zFIIu 0,7822 Overall 0,7342 Bảng A.10 Các hệ số cho điểm xoay varimax (PCA lần hai, giai đoạn 2008-2012) Variable Comp1 Unexplained zDBaccounts 0,5879 0,1442 zFIIa 0,5649 0,2100 zFIIu 0,5791 0,1697 Bảng A.11 Các hệ số cho điểm xoay varimax (PCA lần hai, giai đoạn 2013-2018) Variable Comp1 Unexplained zFIIp -0,5818 0,1637 zFIIa 0,5805 0,1674 zFIIu 0,5697 0,1982 Bảng A.12 Kết quả hồi quy FI index và chỉ số account Source SS df MS Number of obs = 78 F(1, 76) = 20,98 Model 0,7880 1 0,7880 Prob > F = 0,0000 Residual 2,8547 76 0,0376 R-squared = 0,2163 Adj R-squared = 0,2060 Total 3,6427 77 0,0473 Root MSE = 0,1938 Account Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] zFII 0,4881 0,1066 4,58 0,000 0,2756 0,7004 _cons 0,1718 0,0614 2,80 0,007 0,0494 0,2942 Bảng A.13 Kết quả hồi quy FI index và chỉ số saving Source SS df MS Number of obs = 78 F(1, 76) = 29,43 Model 0,2399 1 0,2399 Prob > F = 0,0000 Residual 0,6196 76 0,0082 R-squared = 0,2791 Adj R-squared = 0,2697 Total 0,8596 77 0,0112 Root MSE = 0,0903 Saving Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] zFII 0,2694 0,0496 5,42 0,000 0,1705 0,3682 _cons 0,0079 0,0286 0,28 0,783 -0,0491 0,0649 Bảng A.14 Kết quả hồi quy FI index và IFI của Park và Mercado (2018) Source SS df MS Number of obs = 78 F(1, 76) = 38,27 Model 0,3569 1 0,3569 Prob > F = 0,0000 Residual 0,7088 76 0,0093 R-squared = 0,3349 Adj R-squared = 0,3261 Total 1,0657 77 0,0138 Root MSE = 0,0966 IFI Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] zFII 0,2665 0,0431 6,19 0,000 0,1807 0,3523 _cons 0,0373 0,0214 1,74 0,086 -0,0054 0,0800 Bảng A.15 Phân nhóm FI index Nhóm quốc gia có FI index cao Nhóm quốc gia có FI index thấp STT Quốc gia STT Quốc gia STT Quốc gia STT Quốc gia 1 Albania 1 Benin 13 Lesotho 25 Togo 2 Armenia 2 Botswana 14 Mali 26 Uganda 3 Bolivia 3 Burkina Faso 15 Mozambique 27 Zambia 4 India 4 Cameroon 16 Myanmar 5 Jamaica 5 Cote d'Ivoire 17 Niger 6 Jordan 6 Dominican Republic 18 Nigeria 7 Malaysia 7 Egypt 19 Pakistan 8 Mauritius 8 Ghana 20 Philippines 9 Namibia 9 Guinea 21 Rwanda 10 Samoa 10 Indonesia 22 Senegal 11 South Africa 11 Kenya 23 Solomon Islands 12 Thailand 12 Kyrgyz Republic 24 Tanzania Bảng A.16 Kết quả phân tích nhân quả Granger Nhóm các nước có FI index thấp Nhóm các nước có FI index cao Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob> chi2 chi2 df Prob> chi2 MPR IR 8,182 2 0,017 21,932 2 0 GDP 12,596 2 0,002 53,583 2 0 INF 63,295 2 0 19,018 2 0 LER 97,922 2 0 30,97 2 0 ALL 153,199 8 0 146,633 8 0 IR MPR 63,557 2 0 91,897 2 0 GDP 1,269 2 0,53 13,376 2 0,001 INF 10,164 2 0,006 52,632 2 0 LER 66,859 2 0 46,556 2 0 ALL 172,641 8 0 180,412 8 0 GDP MPR 14,746 2 0,001 106,847 2 0 IR 29,686 2 0 21,728 2 0 INF 12,887 2 0,002 32,447 2 0 LER 59,927 2 0 121,026 2 0 ALL 150,626 8 0 251,658 8 0 INF MPR 16,683 2 0 114,387 2 0 IR 25,916 2 0 46,351 2 0 GDP 2,563 2 0,278 9,52 2 0,009 LER 54,99 2 0 55,886 2 0 ALL 100,425 8 0 212,599 8 0 LER MPR 3,75 2 0,153 3,922 2 0,141 IR 28,854 2 0 32,307 2 0 GDP 10,167 2 0,006 15,385 2 0 INF 0,455 2 0,797 13,906 2 0,001 ALL 41,131 8 0 79,749 8 0 Bảng A.17 Kết quả phân rã phương sai (FEVD) Response Nhóm mẫu có FI index thấp Nhóm mẫu có FI index cao variable Impulse variable Impulse variable MPR MPR IR GDP INF LER MPR IR GDP INF LER 0 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 1 1,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 1,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 2 0,8627 0,0083 0,0001 0,0136 0,1152 0,9856 0,0061 0,0005 0,0023 0,0055 3 0,7015 0,0211 0,0003 0,0240 0,2530 0,9710 0,0075 0,0004 0,0056 0,0155 4 0,5831 0,0341 0,0003 0,0271 0,3554 0,9586 0,0068 0,0017 0,0091 0,0237 5 0,5017 0,0467 0,0003 0,0264 0,4249 0,9484 0,0056 0,0045 0,0125 0,0290 6 0,4452 0,0592 0,0002 0,0242 0,4712 0,9396 0,0047 0,0080 0,0157 0,0320 7 0,4049 0,0718 0,0002 0,0217 0,5014 0,9318 0,0045 0,0116 0,0186 0,0335 8 0,3756 0,0842 0,0001 0,0195 0,5205 0,9247 0,0051 0,0148 0,0209 0,0344 9 0,3540 0,0965 0,0002 0,0177 0,5317 0,9180 0,0069 0,0175 0,0226 0,0350 10 0,3379 0,1083 0,0002 0,0162 0,5374 0,9114 0,0097 0,0196 0,0236 0,0357 IR 0 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 1 0,0023 0,9977 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0499 0,9501 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 2 0,0099 0,9675 0,0001 0,0000 0,0224 0,1444 0,8528 0,0004 0,0010 0,0014 3 0,0366 0,9292 0,0008 0,0022 0,0313 0,2126 0,7833 0,0022 0,0007 0,0012 4 0,0760 0,8874 0,0018 0,0084 0,0264 0,2465 0,7425 0,0044 0,0022 0,0044 5 0,1221 0,8358 0,0029 0,0175 0,0217 0,2562 0,7215 0,0065 0,0055 0,0102 6 0,1681 0,7735 0,0040 0,0266 0,0277 0,2528 0,7126 0,0081 0,0092 0,0173 7 0,2085 0,7057 0,0047 0,0339 0,0472 0,2438 0,7102 0,0090 0,0124 0,0246 8 0,2329 0,6393 0,0050 0,0386 0,0766 0,2405 0,7108 0,0095 0,0148 0,0320 9 0,2219 0,5796 0,0051 0,0409 0,1104 0,2640 0,7122 0,0095 0,0167 0,0397 10 0,2113 0,5291 0,0051 0,0417 0,1438 0,2805 0,7133 0,0093 0,0182 0,0479 GDP 0 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 1 0,0049 0,0032 0,9919 0,0000 0,0000 0,0316 0,0020 0,9664 0,0000 0,0000 2 0,0126 0,0078 0,9614 0,0049 0,0133 0,0882 0,0203 0,8133 0,0004 0,0778 3 0,0120 0,0327 0,9068 0,0077 0,0408 0,1071 0,0252 0,7031 0,0090 0,1554 4 0,0120 0,0772 0,8497 0,0076 0,0536 0,1052 0,0264 0,6388 0,0218 0,2078 5 0,0148 0,0131 0,7949 0,0071 0,0523 0,1001 0,0267 0,6064 0,0305 0,2362 6 0,0187 0,0184 0,7415 0,0069 0,0492 0,0983 0,0272 0,5915 0,0335 0,2495 7 0,0215 0,0230 0,6919 0,0065 0,0502 0,0989 0,0284 0,5841 0,0336 0,2550 8 0,0223 0,0268 0,6495 0,0061 0,0539 0,0999 0,0302 0,5794 0,0334 0,2570 9 0,0219 0,0299 0,6159 0,0060 0,0572 0,1006 0,0327 0,5756 0,0335 0,2576 10 0,0310 0,0304 0,5906 0,0062 0,0584 0,1009 0,0355 0,5722 0,0338 0,2576 INF 0 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 1 0,1215 0,0033 0,0057 0,8695 0,0000 0,0556 0,0038 0,0104 0,9302 0,0000 2 0,1818 0,0117 0,0038 0,7564 0,0462 0,1886 0,0084 0,0076 0,8552 0,0001 3 0,2098 0,0168 0,0024 0,6295 0,1415 0,1887 0,0129 0,0055 0,7863 0,0066 4 0,2136 0,0187 0,0016 0,5210 0,2450 0,2249 0,0131 0,0048 0,7315 0,0257 5 0,2062 0,0187 0,0013 0,4429 0,3309 0,2359 0,0122 0,0052 0,6915 0,0551 6 0,1963 0,0182 0,0011 0,3930 0,3913 0,2313 0,0135 0,0058 0,6626 0,0868 7 0,1881 0,0178 0,0010 0,3642 0,4288 0,2229 0,0173 0,0059 0,6398 0,1141 8 0,1828 0,0175 0,0010 0,3490 0,4496 0,2167 0,0221 0,0058 0,6203 0,1352 9 0,1799 0,0175 0,0010 0,3416 0,4601 0,2132 0,0266 0,0056 0,6030 0,1515 10 0,1784 0,0175 0,0010 0,3380 0,4650 0,2114 0,0301 0,0058 0,5877 0,1650 LER 0 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 1 0,0803 0,0207 0,0002 0,0101 0,8887 0,0001 0,0074 0,0354 0,0000 0,9571 2 0,0800 0,0285 0,0006 0,0105 0,8804 0,0003 0,0025 0,0534 0,0019 0,9419 3 0,0798 0,0347 0,0010 0,0108 0,8737 0,0008 0,0014 0,0529 0,0043 0,9405 4 0,0798 0,0399 0,0014 0,0108 0,8681 0,0025 0,0010 0,0496 0,0068 0,9401 5 0,0799 0,0442 0,0018 0,0108 0,8634 0,0060 0,0008 0,0467 0,0086 0,9379 6 0,0802 0,0479 0,0021 0,0106 0,8593 0,0112 0,0008 0,0447 0,0097 0,9336 7 0,0804 0,0511 0,0023 0,0104 0,8558 0,0176 0,0010 0,0436 0,0101 0,9276 8 0,0808 0,0540 0,0026 0,0101 0,8526 0,0247 0,0016 0,0432 0,0102 0,9204 9 0,0811 0,0566 0,0027 0,0099 0,8496 0,0321 0,0024 0,0432 0,0101 0,9122 10 0,0815 0,0590 0,0029 0,0096 0,8469 0,0394 0,0036 0,0435 0,0100 0,9035 Bảng A.18 Tổng hợp những khía cạnh chủ yếu đo lường tài chính toàn diện Nguồn Các khía cạnh và biến đo lường Phương pháp Tiếp cận DVTC Sự sẵn có DVTC Sử dụng DVTC Khác Sarma (2008, 2015, 2016) Số tài khoản tại NHTM - Số chi nhánh NHTM - Số máy ATM % số dư tín dụng và tiền gửi/ GDP - Sarma Gupte và cộng sự (2012) Số tài khoản tại NHTM - Số máy ATM - Tiền gửi và khoản vay trên 1000 dân số. Tiền gửi và khoản vay theo % GDP - Dễ dàng giao dịch - Chi phí giao dịch HDI Yorulmaz (2013) Số tài khoản tiền gửi, tiết kiệm Số chi nhánh NHTM Số lượng tiền gửi và tiền vay - HDI Mialou và cộng sự (2017) - Số chi nhánh NHTM - Số máy ATM - Số lượng người gửi tiền và vay tiền - FA Park và Mercado (2018b) % dân số có tài khoản - Số chi nhánh NHTM - Số máy ATM - % người vay và tiết kiệm. -% tín dụng /GDP - PCA Camara và Tuesta (2018) - Số máy ATM - Số chi nhánh NHTM - Số lượng tài khoản, tiết kiệm, và cho vay. Rào cản PCA Ahamed và Mallick (2019) Số chi nhánh NHTM và máy ATM. - Số tài khoản mở tại NHTM - PCA Sha'ban và cộng sự (2020) Số chi nhánh NHTM và số máy ATM - Số tài khoản tiền gửi và tiền vay. Số dư tiền gửi và tín dụng / GDP PCA Huang và Zhang (2020) Số lượng nhân viên và chi nhánh NHTM theo km2 Số lượng nhân viên và chi nhánh NHTM theo đầu người % số dư tín dụng và tiền gửi/ GDP - Sarma Avom và cộng sự (2021) Số chi nhánh NHTM và máy ATM tính trên khoảng cách địa lý và nhân khẩu Tỷ lệ người trưởng thành có tài khoản, thẻ ngân hàng. Số dư tiết kiệm, khoản vay, thanh toán kỹ thuật số, bảo hiểm. chi phí, khoảng cách, niềm tin, tài chính, văn hóa và tôn giáo. PCA Nguồn: Tổng hợp của tác giả Ghi chú: Phương pháp Sarma: xây dựng FI index tương tự như cách tính toán chỉ số phát triển con người (HDI) của Chương trình Phát triển Liên Hợp Quốc, tuy nhiên trọng số được gán cho từng khía cạnh là theo kinh nghiệm của tác giả, không tính trung bình như cách tính HDI. 1.2 Phần Phụ lục Hình Hình A.1 Tóm tắt các kênh truyền dẫn tiền tệ chủ yếu CSTT Kênh lãi suất truyền thống Kỳ vọng Kênh tín dụng Các kênh giá tài sản Kênh Bảng cân đối KT Kênh cho vay Kênh tỷ giá hối đoái Thuyết Tobin Q Hiệu ứng của cải Niềm tin Giá tài sản Tiền gửi Giá tài sản Lãi suất thực Kỳ vọng tương lai Rủi ro; lựa chọn bất lợi Cung cấp TD Của cải tài chính Tobin’q (tỷ lệ q) Tỷ giá Đầu tư, tiêu dùng Đầu tư Đầu tư Tiêu dùng Đầu tư Xuất khẩu ròng Đầu tư Tiêu dùng Sản lượng Nguồn: Tác giả tổng hợp Hình A.2 Biểu đồ FI index các nước đang phát triển (2008-2018)