Luận án Tác động bất cân xứng của nợ công đến tăng trưởng kinh tế - Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ Việt Nam

The majority of developing nation governments have budget deficits due to excessive spending and inadequate revenue. Governments can raise revenue through printing money, borrowing local or international debt, or using previous budget surpluses. When the government chooses to pay the budget deficit through borrowing rather than implementing extra tax measures, it incurs a liability known as public debt. This debt can be categorized as internal debt, or debt owed to domestic lenders, and foreign debt, which is primarily owed to overseas lenders. In the majority of emerging nations after the 1980s, the rate of debt accumulation and the ability to repay were the primary determinants of output growth. In developing countries, economic mismanagement and governance crises also increase the public debt burden and impede growth. The influence of governmental debt on the expansion of the Vietnamese economy was the subject of the research presented in this thesis. The objective is to determine if government debt contributes to economic growth or has a detrimental effect on the economy. The findings reveal that government debt has a considerable and asymmetric effect on sustained economic growth in the short and long run. Government debt should support short- and long-term economic growth through funding production. Consequently, government debt should not constitute a burden on the economy when the high amount of debt exceeds the capacity to repay.

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ion, and infrastructure. There are numerous reasons why fiscal policy in developing countries tends to be procyclical. For instance, government spending (G) grows when aggregate demand (AD) is extremely high. Large capital flows poured into the country during the time of economic development, putting pressure on the exchange rate to rise and boosting exports. Consequently, these investments improve the government's tax collection. The government perceives a rise in the budget due to the wealth effect, higher public investment, and the expansion of state projects. During periods of economic expansion, gasoline prices rise, putting pressure on the overall price level. Tax revenues also rise, and the government continues to boost spending. Additionally, political pressure generates incentives for the government to boost spending in periods of growth. When capital leaves the economy, the opposite occurs until the economy enters a condition of weakness, leading to a sudden halt. The government was compelled to decrease the deficit by cutting spending due to a sharp decline in capital expenditures. Consequently, when the economy suffers, G falls, and fiscal policy is procyclical. In poor nations, government spending is mostly allocated to two categories: civil servant wages and investment expenditures. When a country's economy is in a recession and the government is compelled to slash its budget, it often chooses, for political reasons, to reduce investment rather than wages. Most governments are frequently under pressure, and the simplest response is to reduce investment, particularly in emerging nations. Government spending in the form of investments, such as the construction of roads, bridges, and infrastructure, etc., is correlated with economic expansion over the long term. Without these public initiatives, it would be challenging to sustainably raise taxes. Occasionally, investment cuts are inevitable, but in developing nations, government spending cuts can stimulate future growth. 111 The disproportional impact of public debt on economic growth emphasizes the need for enhanced economic management. To effectively minimize the debt burden, this can take the shape of enhanced resource utilization efficiency. To prevent the risk of debt accumulation, policymakers in Vietnam should play a significant role in monitoring the state of the public debt. Additionally, there is a need to enhance and properly manage government expenditures, as this will reduce the public debt. The findings of the regression indicate that the money supply into the economy has a asymmetric effect on economic growth, which indicates that the money supply does not fully boost economic growth; rather, an excessive money supply would hinder economic growth. Vietnam may need to adhere to some fundamental economic concepts, such as spending as little as feasible. Vietnam has a high average public debt as a developing nation, thus authorities must create a strong financial plan to avoid burdening future generations. In order to minimize its reliance on public debt, the Vietnamese government may need to reform its fiscal and monetary policy. In order to foster economic growth and address current account imbalances, developing countries are urged to borrow from wealthier nations. However, the weight and dynamics of external debt can have a negative impact on the financing of economic development in emerging countries. If the cost of repaying debt is low relative to the return on investment, it can increase investment and accelerate economic growth, however if the expenses are high, growth would stall. Vietnam borrows from internal and external sources to address savings-investment gaps, budget deficits, and other gaps to boost economic growth and macroeconomic factors like investment, consumption, education, and health. Annual interest payments on the public debt have a detrimental impact on economic growth. In recent years, a number of emerging nations have actively pursued internal debt to replace external debt. This has resulted in the emergence of a second issue, namely the problem of rising and substantial domestic debt. Internal loan delinquencies can have significant effects on the economy. The interest rates involved will surpass the foreign debt and devour a large percentage of the government's revenue. This can also cause competition between the government 112 and the private sector, resulting in private sector investment being crowded out. This is a regular occurrence in developing nations such as Vietnam. The topic of debt and economic growth in Vietnam implies that there is a direct correlation: more debt is detrimental to economic growth. In addition, seeking a bigger public debt to encourage economic growth is a poor policy choice, as it might result in higher taxes, a decline in private investment, and an increase in consumer spending. Moreover, the data indicate that for some countries in transition, such as Vietnam, the current level of debt may have had a negative impact on GDP growth, as the average debt-to-GDP ratio is currently above the threshold for GDP public debt. Countries with debt levels above the threshold should consider decreasing their public debt to ensure that their national revenue is sufficient to repay the debt. If a country is insolvent and need more financial resources, increasing the tax rate to replace the debt is not a viable alternative. This module informs governments in transitioning nations about the asymmetric impact of public debt on economic growth, the point at which public debt becomes a drag on growth. The study also warns transition country authorities that targeting higher debt levels to enhance growth is not a feasible policy option. Countries in transition with debt levels exceeding their GDP must take measures not just to stabilize their public debt, but also to reduce it over the medium and long term. Therefore, the only prudent strategy for policymakers of countries is to manage public debt below GDP in order to absorb external shocks that are unpredictable and may impact economies. Given that many countries already have debt levels above the GDP limit, the logical economic option for those countries is to immediately adopt bold steps and measures to resolve fiscal problems. It will be more challenging to put policies in place that result in future fiscal consolidation the longer a high level of public debt is maintained. This is because debt has a negative influence on economic growth. Countries must construct their fiscal policies with care, periodically assessing their debt levels to ensure they maintain an adequate debt-to-GDP ratio and that borrowing for public purposes is successful. If debt is not effectively managed, it can have a negative effect on economic growth. 113 5.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH The properties of the model determine the research outcomes. The correctness of the model is highly dependent on the factors incorporated into the model and the stage of data collecting. Consequently, the selection of Vietnam as a research country cannot avoid the following challenges and restrictions: Data on fiscal policy and Vietnam's economic growth in the periods before 2000 were incomplete, limiting the inclusion of observations in the model and its tests. The majority of domestic studies are qualitative. Therefore, a comprehensive and detailed comparison of research results with those of other studies will be challenging. In addition, there are a few shortcomings with the study. The model definition does not account for the possibility of data outliers, which could have influenced the results. In addition to the relationship between public debt, public sector spending, and economic growth, the study could be expanded to find mechanisms via which the public debt impact is indirectly transferred on growth. 114 SUMMARY The majority of developing nation governments have budget deficits due to excessive spending and inadequate revenue. Governments can raise revenue through printing money, borrowing local or international debt, or using previous budget surpluses. When the government chooses to pay the budget deficit through borrowing rather than implementing extra tax measures, it incurs a liability known as public debt. This debt can be categorized as internal debt, or debt owed to domestic lenders, and foreign debt, which is primarily owed to overseas lenders. In the majority of emerging nations after the 1980s, the rate of debt accumulation and the ability to repay were the primary determinants of output growth. In developing countries, economic mismanagement and governance crises also increase the public debt burden and impede growth. The influence of governmental debt on the expansion of the Vietnamese economy was the subject of the research presented in this thesis. The objective is to determine if government debt contributes to economic growth or has a detrimental effect on the economy. The findings reveal that government debt has a considerable and asymmetric effect on sustained economic growth in the short and long run. Government debt should support short- and long-term economic growth through funding production. Consequently, government debt should not constitute a burden on the economy when the high amount of debt exceeds the capacity to repay. 115 REFERENCES Domestic references 1. Đinh Văn Thông (2009). 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International Journal of Developing and Emerging Economics, 2(4): 1-23. 135 APPENDIX EXAMINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE APPENDIX 1: STATIONARY TEST OF DATA SERIES 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 APPENDIX 2: COINTERGRATION TEST 144 APPENDIX 3: CAUSALITY TEST 145 APPENDIX 4: LAG ORDER SELECTION CRITERIA 146 APPENDIX 5: THE STABILITY TEST OF THE MODEL 147 148 APPENDIX 6: THE VECM 149 APPENDIX 7: IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION 150 APPENDIX 8:VARIANCE DECOMPOSTION 151 APPENDIX EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH APPENDIX 1: UNIT ROOT TEST 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 APPENDIX 2: DATA DESCRIPTION 162 APPENDIX 3: THE ECR TEST 163 APPENDIX 4: THE NARDL MODEL 164 APPENDIX 5: THE BREUSCH TEST 165 APPENDIX 6: THE LONG RUN AND BOUNDS TEST 166 APPENDIX 7: THE RAMSEY TEST 167 APPENDIX 8: THE WALD TEST Wald Test: Equation: NARDL03 Test Statistic Value df Probability t-statistic -1.276413 68 0.02062 F-statistic 1.629231 (1, 68) 0.02062 Chi-square 1.629231 1 0.02018 Null Hypothesis: C(3)=C(4)+C(5) Null Hypothesis Summary: Normalized Restriction (= 0) Value Std. Err. C(3) - C(4) - C(5) -0.333939 0.0261623 Restrictions are linear in coefficients. 168 APPENDIX 9: PLOT OF CUMULATIVE SUM OF RESIDUALS CUSUM 169 APPENDIX 10: PLOT OF THE CUMULATIVE SUM OF SQUARES OF RECURSIVE RESIDUALS (CUSUMSQ) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 CUSUM 5% Significance 170 APPENDIX 11: PLOT OF ASYMMETRIC CUMULATIVE DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER 171 172 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Multiplier for IRB1(+) Multiplier for IRB1(-) Asymmetry Plot (with C.I.) 173 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Multiplier for EXP1(+) Multiplier for EXP1(-) Asymmetry Plot (with C.I.)

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