Republic of korea-Vietnam strategic cooperative partnership and the way forward in the new context of global governance change in the 21 st century

cluding Ho Chi Minh‟s concept of “great unity,” the long-standing “idea of tolerance,” and the foundations of Confucianism, Buddhism and Daoism, have been playing crucial roles in preserving Vietnam‟s national unity after 1975. ROK can draw lessons from this experience. According to Fukuyama, developing a healthy relationship requires proficiency in utilizing social cohesion and inheritance, and “trust is the infrastructure of the economy,” There are numerous similarities between ROK and Vietnam: the historical struggle against China to protect state sovereignty, the influence of Confucianism, allegiance to the family, the concept of a good reputation, love of learning, the notion of respect, etc. However the two countries slightly differ in terms of people‟s characteristics: Koreans are diligent but hasty, while Vietnamese tend to be diligent and meticulous. 3.3.3.5. For Coordinative Response to the Emerging Global Issues 1) Energy Security Issue One of the challenges facing ROK is that its energy demand continues to expand with its growing economy and increasing population. As can be seen in Figure 19 below, ROK was the world‟s seventh largest importer of oil in 2007 and the second largest importer of coal. 124 Figure 20: Energy and Oil Consumption Data first second third fourth fifth sixth seventh eighth ninth tenth Energy consumption US China Russia Japan India Germany Canada France UK ROK (M/TOE) 2,298 1,178 671 505 345 332 291 261 223 215 oil consumption US China Japan Germany Russia India ROK Canada France Italy (mb/d) 20.0 6.0 5.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 (Source: BP Energy Statistics 2007) ROK is dependent on foreign energy and resources for about 97% of its total energy consumption, importing 84.5% of total oil consumption from the Middle East, as seen in Figure 20 below. Any disturbance in the world energy market can easily trigger instability in ROK‟s economy. Figure 21: Dependence on Foreign Resources, Oil Dependence on the Middle East Year 80 90 00 03 04 05 08 Dependence on foreign resources (%) 73.5 87.9 97.2 96.9 96.7 96.8 96.4 Oil dependence on the Middle East (%) 98.8 73.7 76.9 79.5 78.1 81.8 84.5 (Source: ROK Energy Economic Institute, 2010 Energy Information) ROK is facing a conflict between environmental sustainability and economic benefits. In attaining its current level of economic growth, the environmental sustainability has steadily worsened. Oil and coal consumption 125 is higher than other advanced countries, incurring massive GHG emissions. On the other hand, Vietnam‟s energy independence rate (over 33%) still remains relatively high. It possesses plentiful energy resources necessary for economic growth. Still, Vietnam‟s energy security is deteriorating and the country is becoming vulnerable. According to the Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) and US Central Intelligence Agency, Vietnam held 470 million barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 2007. It consumed around 311,400 bbl/d of oil per day in 2010, while, some experts expected this figure to rise to about 332,000 bbl/d in 2011. At present, Vietnam is importing 13% of its total consumption of electricity from China and Laos. Vietnam is seriously examining exploitation and development of the oil fields in the South China Sea, and now claims sovereignty of a portion of the potentially hydrocarbon rich Truong Sa (Spratly Islands), as do the Philippines, Malaysia, China, and Taiwan. Vietnam also claims Hoang Sa (Paracel Islands) in the South China Sea, which China first occupied in 1974. 126 Figure 22: Competing claims in the South China Sea The United States Geological Survey has estimated the total sum of discovered reserves and undiscovered resources in the offshore basins of the South China Sea at 28 billion bbl, 20 while the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation announced a finding of proven natural gas reserves of nearly 4 to 20 Bbl: An oil barrel, a unit measurement for petroleum 127 6 Tcf 21 near the Spratly Islands [110]. The territorial dispute is likely to have a negative impact on Vietnam‟s energy security in the future. In general, Vietnam is facing four major difficulties: oil and gas production slowdown, electricity shortages, coal exploitation difficulties, and rapid energy demand. These factors will pose big obstacles to the country‟s sustainable development. The continuing rapid growth will lead Vietnam to become a net importer of energy after the year of 2020. This means that Vietnam is fragile in the field of energy security, a fact which has implications for national security. Therefore, Vietnam will attempt to rapidly construct more power plants, including nuclear facilities, and is committed to adding nuclear power to its electricity generation mix. Vietnam is one of the most important partners of ROK in improving energy security. ROK is now participating in developing oil fields in southern Vietnam. ROK and Vietnam are also discussing establishing nuclear plants. ROK possesses the high-technology necessary to build nuclear plants and also has 30 year experience in operating these plants. It is important that ROK shares this diverse development experience and expertise with Vietnam in all areas, so that Vietnam may benefit from accumulated knowledge and design the most effective strategy to build a prosperous nation in the future. 2) Climate Change Issue The fact is that without sustainable environment protection, we cannot continue to live on the Earth. Climate change is a serious and urgent issue. The Earth has warmed by 0.7°C since the year 1900 and further warming will 21 Tcf: Trillion Cubic Feet, a volume measurement used by the oil and gas industry 128 continue over the coming decades simply due to the emission of greenhouse gases. On current trends, average global temperatures could rise by 2-3°C within the next fifty years or so, with several degrees more by the end of the century if the emissions continue to grow [80]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in the absence of policy change and major supply constraints, an increase in CO2 emissions of such magnitude could raise global average temperatures in 2100 by 6°C or more, resulting in significant impacts 22 on all aspects of life and irreversible changes in the natural environment. The effects of climate change are very evident in ROK, and are being increasingly observed. Average temperatures have increased by 1.5°C in the last 100 years, while sea level has risen 22cm in the last 40 years. Compared to the 1920s, winter in ROK has become shorter by a month, with the summer longer by 20 days. An increase in occurrence of typhoons (damage cost up 22 According to “The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” (Nicholas Stern, 2006) on these current trends, average global temperatures could rise by 2 - 3°C within the next fifty years or so, leading to many severe impacts, often mediated by water including more frequent droughts and floods. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change warned of many severe effects of climate change: ▲Melting glaciers will increase flood risk during the wet season, ▲ Declining crop yields, especially in Africa, are likely to leave hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food, ▲ Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of millions more people flooded each year with a warming of 3 or 4°C. There will be serious risks and increasing pressures for coastal protection in South East Asia (Bangladesh and Vietnam), small islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and large coastal cities, such as Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Calcutta, Karachi, Buenos Aires, St Petersburg, New York, Miami and London.▲ By the middle of the century, 200 million more people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods, and more intense droughts, according to one estimate, ▲Ecosystems will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, with one study estimating that around 15 – 40% of species face extinction with 2°C of warming 129 three fold in the last 10 years) and torrential rainfall (2.8 days in a year, 0.8 day increase in the last 10 years) have also been witnessed [56]. ROK‟s carbon emissions, both in total and per capita, doubled between 1990 and 2005, making it the ninth largest emission country in the world. To deal with the emission issue, preserving the global environment for future generations and achieving sustainable growth by both developing “green” technology and nurturing “green” industry. Tackling such issues today in the energy sector will prevent a food crisis in the future and create new economic growth engines, which will eventually drive green growth in ROK. In Vietnam, the annual average temperature increased 0.1°C per decade from 1900 to 2000, and 0.7°C during the period 1951–2000, or 0.14°C per decade, suggesting that temperature rose faster in the latter half of the last century. Summers have become hotter in recent years, with average monthly temperatures increasing 0.1–0.3°C per decade [11]. If temperature warms 3- 4°C, rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of millions more people being flooded each year. There will be serious risks and increasing pressures for coastal protection in South East Asia, especially in Bangladesh and Vietnam. This means that both Hong Ha and Mekong deltas might be flooded in Vietnam. It is predicted that if the sea level rises one meter, Vietnam will lose 12.2% of its total land area. Regarding the CO2 emissions, Vietnam has been classified as one of the fastest growing countries per capita emitters of CO2 among the developing countries. CO2 emissions for 1990-2008 increased five times (from 17.3 MtCO2 in 1990 to 103 MtCO2 in 2008, 495.5% increase on the 1990 base year. Emissions are predicted to reach 172 MtCO2 in 2020 130 and increase to over 300 MtCO2 in 2050). Emissions are expected to increase rapidly as Vietnam implements industrialization and the economy utilizes more carbon intensive fuels, moving away from traditional fuels including biomass. ROK announced a national mid-term target in April 2009 in voluntary and independent manner to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 percent by 2020 from the 2005 level [108]. Faced with the effects of climate change, adaptation is the best policy to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. It is essential for managing and reducing the unavoidable impacts of greenhouse gas emissions which are already locked into the climate system. With rapid economic growth rate and low per capita electricity consumption, it is difficult to meet the fast-growing power demand in the future. To make Vietnam a basically industrialized country by 2020, the construction of nuclear power plants is another solution, strengthening energy security as well as reducing polluting GHG emissions from fossil fuels. To achieve this goal, Vietnam plans to construct 8 nuclear power plants by 2030 [104]. Building two nuclear power plants will give Vietnam‟s economy a strong impetus to move forward in a sustainable manner. It will also play a major role in ensuring Vietnam‟s energy security and mitigating GHG emissions. To maintain sustainable development in the years to come, Vietnam will also gradually try to change the present economic model into Green Growth strategy which will be the new economic paradigm of the 21 st century. 3) Food Security Issue If there is any country on the planet which has cause to worry about its food supply, it is ROK, which imports more than 90 percent of its food from 131 overseas, including almost all of its wheat and corn. ROK has undergone one of the most rapid industrial transformations in its history. In 1950, 70-80 per cent of the population was working in the agricultural sector. Today less than 8% of the population is employed in the agricultural sector [68] and ROK has become one of the most urbanized and modern industrialized nations in the world. Today the farm sector is seen by most Koreans as backward and undesirable. ROK's overall food self-sufficiency rate was 22.6 percent in 2011, falling sharply from the 43.1 percent recorded in 1990 [123]. Industrial development and population pressures have pushed ROK‟s food needs far beyond the capacity of its own agriculture. By contrast, Vietnam maintains a primarily rice-based agricultural economy. In 2012, Vietnam was the second largest rice exporter after India, exporting about 7.7 million tons of rice, grossing a total of US$3.45 billion [112]. It is expected that by 2020, rice export revenue will reach US$3.8 billion. In addition, Vietnam is the 5 th biggest fishery product exporter in the world, with its total fishery export revenue in 2011 reaching US$ 6.11 billion (including US$490.3 million shipped to the ROK market). Shrimp is Vietnam's main exports to ROK. In the same year, Vietnam‟s total fruit and vegetable export value reached US$622.5 million, of which the ROK market absorbed US$18.9 million [112]. ROK has immense potential to cooperate with Vietnam in the agricultural and fishery sector which can spur economic growth in the future. 3.3.4. Remarks According to historical documents, Korea-Vietnam relations date back 132 some 800 years. In the feudal era, the relations were limited to informal contacts among government officials dispatched to China by each country. With the end of the age of imperialism after the collapse of the axis powers in 1945, ROK and Vietnam were ideologically and territorially divided, falling into the spheres of influence of the rival Cold War great powers. Both ROK and Vietnam suffered terrible wars on their national territories. Both countries became, as a result, under-developed, impoverished and backward. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1992, ROK-Vietnam relations have been constructive and forward-looking. In 2009 the “Comprehensive Cooperative Partnership” concluded in 2001 was upgraded to a “Strategic Cooperative Partnership”. Moreover, their economic relations based on market principles and showing dramatic growth in all fields, have constantly been tightened and strengthened. This remarkable economic relationship has brought both the Korean and Vietnamese people numerous mutual benefits. As their relations have strengthened, the two countries have been developing deep “brotherhood, family-like relations.” However, there still remain some sensitive issues such as recognition of the darker areas of past history, trade deficits and international marriages, which need to be addressed smoothly, on a long term basis. Vietnam has been worried about its widening trade deficit with ROK, which it believes impedes further development of bilateral relations and the prospect for concluding the free trade negotiations. In 2012, Vietnam suffered a trade deficit of $10.2 billion with ROK. In an effort to balance its trade with Vietnam, the Korean government has sent trade delegations to Hanoi every 133 year, but these have failed to yield fruitful outcomes. Some analysts argue that ROK needs to make efforts to increase its imports of agricultural products from Vietnam. "Although it is burdensome because of the symbolic nature of opening up the agricultural market, it would be a rational choice to open up the market to Vietnam while expanding exports of other goods to Vietnam," said Kwon Kyeong-deok, a senior researcher at the ROK Trade and Investment Promotion Agency. Another pending issue is a growing number of illegal Vietnamese immigrant workers in ROK. In 2012, ROK decided to halt work visas for Vietnamese workers because of rampant illegal immigration. According to statistics from ROK's Justice Ministry, some 75,000 Vietnamese people are working in ROK and about 16,500 of them illegally canceled their labor contracts to work for other employers [125]. With the rapid progress in globalization, the world is becoming narrower and global interdependence is deepening. With the rise of China as a strong entity in the Asia-Pacific region, the United States is becoming increasingly concerned. Many experts and research centers predict that China is poised to overtake the United States as the world‟s largest economy (measured by GDP at PPPs) sometime around 2020. It can be said unequivocally that rising China is now not a fantasy but a fact. The rise of a wealthy and powerful China is now changing world dynamics. In 2010, it became the second greatest economic power of the world with US $5.1 trillion GDP. Furthermore, it is the world‟s leading country in total export volume which amounts to 1.2 trillion USD. It also possesses 2.6 trillion USD foreign exchange reserves, ranking it the first in the world. China is upgrading its strong position as an economic, diplomatic and military power. 134 On this basis, China will attempt to strengthen its voice in the international community, extend its influence and promote changes in the existing order of the East Asia. Moreover, China is engaged in active diplomacy to strengthen its national status. This raises the question of the adjustment of the relationship between the newly emerging countries and Western powers. Meanwhile, the wealthy and powerful China has demonstrated its strength in the territorial disputes over the Senkaku islands with Japan and the Spratly islands with Vietnam and the Philippines in recent years. Nationalism in East Asia is becoming fierce, appealing to many politicians as tool which can be used to enhance their power. In the coming years, both North Korean nuclear issue and territorial issues in the China Seas will have direct or indirect impacts on the entire East Asian international order as well as on ROK-Vietnam relations. Against this backdrop, in the years to come, both ROK and Vietnam are likely to be impacted by global, regional and bilateral factors. The evolution of both United States‟ and Chinese foreign policies may be one of the key elements to affecting the external relations of ROK and Vietnam. Therefore, ROK and Vietnam should endeavor to minimize the risks that rising China brings, while actively capitalizing on the new opportunities it offers. In this connection, Le Hong Hiep‟s article "Vietnam Eyes Middle Powers" notes that Hanoi has been reaching out to foreign powers in an attempt to at least deter Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, if not to balance against its broader regional dominance. On the contrary, Lee, S. J.‟s article entitled “South Korea as New Middle Power Seeking: Complex Diplomacy” critically 135 reviews existing definitions of middle powers and discusses the international environment favorable for their operation. The author argues that network power should be the new source of emerging middle powers influence in the 21 st century, and also examines the Asia Pacific region, where a power transition from the United States to China is taking place [57, pp. 23]. This dissertation has analyzed foreign policies responses of ROK and Vietnam to the trends in Asia-Pacific area, and has examined possible ways to accelerate the strategic cooperative partnership of the two nations, while discussing what roles they can play to achieve their objectives. It has been noted that there are various remaining legacies of the Cold War in the East Asian region, especially Korean peninsula, which complicate the entire process. 136 CONCLUSION Many experts consider the 21 st century as the „Era of Asia.‟ In 2010, China was the second biggest economic power of the world with a GDP of 5.1 trillion USD. It was also the world‟s leading country in terms of total export volume (1.2 trillion USD) and possessed the greatest foreign exchange reserves (2.6 trillion USD). China is further upgrading its already strong position as an economic, diplomatic and military power. On the basis of these remarkable achievements and through an active diplomacy appropriate to its enhanced international status, China will endeavor to strengthen its voice in the international community and continually expand its influence, promoting changes in the existing East Asian order, while maintaining its paramount position. It is thus important to develop a new strategy for cooperation in line with the rise of China and the constant changes in regional and global governance. As mentioned above, the rise of China in the 21 st century is a fact that the entire world has to face, and the only way for small to medium neighboring powers such as ROK and Vietnam to ensure their peace and prosperity is to minimize the risks that the rise of China brings, while actively capitalizing on the new opportunities. The current developments that work positively toward enhanced bilateral ties will continue to work in favor of the two nations in the future. The role of visionary leadership cannot be overemphasized in this process. In the transition from an American and Japanese-centered regional political economy to a Sino-centric one, smaller states such as ROK and Vietnam will be forced to calculate their economic and political interests simultaneously. 137 In the 2010 national identity poll carried out by EAI, 23 76.8 percent of South Koreans viewed their country as a middle power while 19.9 percent answered that ROK is a weak power. To the question of "what kind of role should ROK take in resolving international problems?," 53.1 percent answered that ROK should play a bridging role between advanced countries and developing countries; 24.7 percent believed that it should play a supporter role by helping countries that are suffering from poverty or natural disasters; 19.1 percent favored a leading role in setting agenda and norms in international society. It is probably realistic that ROK should, as a responsible member of the international community, play a bridging role between advanced countries and developing countries as well as a supporter role by helping countries that are suffering from poverty or natural disasters. In relation to upgrading ROK-Vietnam “Strategic Cooperative Partnership” in the 21st century, both countries, strengthening their constructive and forward-looking relationship based on mutual benefit and trust and also acting as driving forces for growth in the East Asian region, will create a new cooperative model which adapts their foreign policies smoothly to the rapidly changing global order and governance. At the present time, based on their political will and creative efforts to overcome various challenges caused by the global financial crisis, they are forging new cooperative model. Historically, they have had long experience of protecting their independence from foreign aggression and of overcoming the sufferings caused by unintended war and poverty. In the face of all difficulties, both the Korean and Vietnamese people have displayed undaunted courage. This common national characteristic is the greatest advantage that the two countries can bring into play to boost their growth in the new era. 23 East Asian Institute (EAI) is located at the Sung Kyun Kwan University in Korea. 138 What is the next step in ROK-Vietnam relations? The prospects for ROK-Vietnam economic cooperation are very bright. Bilateral cooperation can play an important role developing in the relationship between ROK and ASEAN as well as the ties between ROK and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole [75, pp. 21]. Based on historical similarities and the developing experience of the bilateral relationship over the past 20 years, on the mutually complementary of economic structures and on their cultural closeness, both countries, ROK as a tiger of Northeast Asia and Vietnam as a dragon of the Southeast Asia, will together prosper and lead a new era of Asian growth in the 21 st century. In order to promote the ROK-Vietnam strategic cooperative partnership in the years to come, it is essential to establish and develop a comprehensive long-term policy based on the principle of mutual interest and respect. There are various recommendations for “Specific Cooperative Activities” to enhance the “ROK-Vietnam strategic cooperative partnership in the 21 st century”. One of the most important is that both countries should soon conclude ROK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations to upgrade entire legal and institutional framework of bilateral relations. Despite historical and cultural similarities, there still exist differences in terms of political institutions and development gaps between ROK and Vietnam. Both countries, moreover, recall the painful history of the Vietnam War, in which ROK forces participated as US allies. However, the fact is that most Vietnamese have a favourable image of Koreans, as high as 96 percent [135, pp.20-40]. The image of ROK as a country and the image of its products are also high in Vietnam and have been continuously improving. In the future, the two countries need to promote their bilateral ties in an even more brotherly fashion through building mutual trust. 139 With regard to multicultural families, the death of a 17-year-old Vietnamese bride at the hands of her violent Korean husband in 2007 shocked many Vietnamese people and become a diplomatic issue between the two countries. In the future, such incidents may occur again and damage mutual respect. Therefore, it is essential that ROK government increase its involvement in international marriages and promote policies to support multicultural families. Moreover, the government needs to increase administrative support to ensure that international marriages take place without human right violations, as well as empowering brides to live independently if their marriages fail. Lastly, the economic structure is shifting toward industrialization and modernization. Despite the recent global recession, ROK remains the 15th economy in the world and has the 8th greatest trade volume (US$100 billion) in the world, while Vietnam ranks among high-growth countries in the Asia Pacific region. Vietnam‟s average for the 2001-2010 periods stood at 7.27%. Last year‟s growth rate reached at 5.03%. From now on, ROK and Vietnam will be obliged to chart out a new “Totally Comprehensive and Long-term Strategic Cooperative Partnership,” enabling them to swiftly adapt to the reshaping of global and regional governance. They will also ultimately be obliged, as middle powers, to contribute to maintaining peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific and beyond, and playing pivotal roles in the shaping of a new regional and global order. 140 AUTHOR’S WORKS 1. Park, N.W. (2011), “Sự Nổi Lên Của Trung Quốc Và Quan Hệ Trung– Hàn: Bước Tiếp Theo Là Gì?”, Tạp Chí Kinh Tế Và Chính Trị Thế Giới, Số 1 (177), Viện Hàn Lâm Khoa Học Xã Hội Việt Nam, tr. 3-10. 2. Park, N.W (2011), “Quan Hệ Việt-Hàn: Thành Tựu Và Vấn Đề Trong Hợp Tác Phát Triển Quốc Tế Và Hợp Tác Việt Nam-Hàn Quốc”, Tạp Chí Nghiên Cứu Đông Bắc Á, số 4 (122), Viện Hàn Lâm Khoa Học Xã Hội Việt Nam, tr.3-18. 3. 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