Luận án Impacts of afta on government revenue, external trade, and FDI of Lao PDR

g Industries‖, Journal of Philippine Development, Vol. 24, No. 137-169. 58. PiriyaPholphirul (2010), ―Does AFTA Create More Trade for Thailand? An Investigation of Some Key Trade Indicators‖, Journal of Current Southeast Asain Affairs, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 51-78. 59. PupongsakSuparerk (2009), ―The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Taxation and Government Revenue”, Department of Economics College of Social Sciences, The University of Birmingham, UK. 60. Richardson, M. (1993) ―Endogenous protection and trade diversion.‖ Journal of International Economics, Vol. 34, pp. 309-324. 61. UNDAF (2002), ―United Nations Development Assistance Framework for Lao P.D.R 2002 – 2006”. 62. Vientiane Times (2004), ―NTR Opportunities, not a Gift”. 63. Vinner, J (1950), “The Customs Union Issue”, New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 64. Vo Tri Thanh (2007), Challenges, Prospects, and Strategies for CLMV Development: The Case of Vietnam. pp. 497-515. 65. Wayne Camard (2000), ―Review of the Lao Economy: The Trade Deficit and the Future of the Lao Economy”, IMF, Office of the Resident representative, Vientiane, Lao P.D.R. 66. WB (2009), ―Lao PDR Economic Monitor‖, The World Bank Office, Vientiane, Lao PDR. 114 67. WB (2011), ―Lao PDR Now a Lower Middle-Income Country‖. 68. World Development Index (2010), ―Lao P.D.R at a Glance”, worldbank.org. 69. Y vesBourdet (1994), ―Fiscal Policy under Transition: the Case of Laos‖, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 1039-1056. 70. Yokota, Kazuhiko and Umemoto, Masaru (2004), ―The Impact of AFTA: Service Link Cost and Export Platform Strategy”, The International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. 115 Appendix A: Economic Growth of Lao PDR. 1990 Brunei 3.52 Cambodia 0.90 Indonesia 113.77 Lao PDR 0.92 Malaysia 43.37 Myanmar n/a Philippines 48.97 Singapore 38.84 Thailand 85.64 Vietnam 6.47 1995 4.73 3.42 202.13 1.88 88.83 n/a 82.12 87.06 168.02 20.80 2000 6.00 3.65 165.02 1.64 93.79 8.91 81.02 94.31 122.73 31.18 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 9.53 11.47 12.25 14.42 10.73 12.37 16.36 16.63 6.29 7.28 8.64 10.35 10.41 11.26 12.89 14.24 285.77 364.36 432.18 510.84 538.80 709.54 846.16 878.20 2.73 3.56 4.23 5.29 5.60 6.86 8.30 9.22 143.54 162.75 193.61 231.07 202.28 246.83 287.94 303.53 11.99 14.50 20.18 31.37 35.23 45.38 51.44 53.14 103.07 122.21 149.36 173.60 168.49 199.59 224.77 250.44 125.43 145.64 177.87 190.59 188.83 231.70 265.62 276.52 176.35 207.09 246.98 272.58 263.71 318.91 345.67 365.56 52.93 60.93 71.11 90.30 93.17 103.58 122.72 138.07 Table A.1: Economic Scale of Lao PDR and ASEAN Countries, 1990-2012 (Unit: Billion US$) Sources: IMF (2013), World Economic Outlook Database. 116 1990 Brunei 1.09 Cambodia 1.12 Indonesia 7.24 Lao PDR 6.69 Malaysia 9.01 Myanmar n/a Philippines 3.04 Singapore 10.11 Thailand 11.62 Vietnam 5.05 1995 4.48 6.44 8.22 7.05 9.83 n/a 4.68 7.28 9.24 9.54 2000 2.85 8.77 4.20 6.32 8.68 13.75 4.41 9.04 4.75 6.79 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.39 4.40 0.15 -1.94 -1.77 2.60 2.21 1.30 13.25 10.77 10.21 6.69 0.09 6.10 7.08 6.45 5.69 5.50 6.35 6.01 4.63 6.22 6.49 6.23 6.77 8.65 7.84 7.79 7.50 8.13 8.04 8.31 4.98 5.59 6.30 4.83 -1.51 7.15 5.08 5.61 13.57 13.08 11.99 3.60 5.14 5.35 5.46 6.30 4.78 5.24 6.62 4.15 1.15 7.63 3.91 6.59 7.37 8.62 9.02 1.75 -0.79 14.78 5.16 1.32 4.64 5.09 5.04 2.48 -2.33 7.81 0.08 6.44 8.44 8.23 8.46 6.31 5.32 6.78 5.89 5.02 Table A.2: Economic Growth Rates of ASEAN Countries, 1996-2010. Sources: IMF (2011), World Economic Outlook Database. 117 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Agriculture 52.9 48.0 48.8 50.3 48.5 45.5 42.7 41.0 39.0 36.7 32.4 33.2 32.5 32.5 30.8 Industry 20.9 19.5 19.4 18.2 19.1 18.3 19.5 21.3 20.5 23.5 29.8 28.7 27.9 26.5 27.4 Services 26.2 32.5 31.8 31.5 32.4 36.2 37.8 37.7 40.5 39.8 37.7 38.2 39.7 41.0 41.8 Agriculture 2.76 6.97 3.05 3.19 4.21 -0.58 1.90 2.51 3.42 0.72 2.46 6.47 4.87 3.05 2.98 Industry 17.15 8.07 15.54 7.49 9.29 -1.50 10.76 19.42 3.72 10.59 14.10 3.32 8.97 16.60 17.72 Services 8.45 7.45 1.38 4.35 6.94 14.69 11.32 3.77 11.97 9.88 9.70 6.80 9.54 6.87 6.73 Percent of GDP Annual Change (%) Table A.3: Percent of GDP and Annual Change of Economic Sectors, 1996-2010 ADB (2011), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 118 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP by industrial origin 1,873.67 1,833.49 1,299.46 1,404.10 1,637.69 1,658.83 1,758.30 2,014.10 2,376.06 2,716.78 3,541.46 4,097.15 5,120.85 5,545.45 6,572.72 Agriculture 967.48 833.95 599.79 667.51 750.57 711.82 708.46 779.57 871.66 934.14 1,074.33 1,269.87 1,552.15 1,685.67 1,897.36 Mining 5.76 3.36 2.47 2.72 3.29 3.59 4.48 53.17 47.97 157.18 447.22 449.84 515.49 424.62 487.62 Manufacturing 284.85 145.96 105.66 116.03 137.49 141.56 148.67 164.57 199.10 219.73 274.03 337.97 440.17 543.05 621.41 Electricity, gas, and water 26.67 20.40 37.82 54.87 71.66 76.97 86.05 87.95 101.95 96.42 107.34 110.26 130.57 147.22 242.12 Construction 64.55 169.20 92.66 68.56 82.48 63.49 84.02 99.37 109.10 125.31 159.45 200.77 245.66 263.72 333.13 Trade 159.32 232.10 170.52 191.16 227.13 267.44 310.63 343.80 486.11 518.79 629.87 753.74 964.73 1,078.60 1,325.53 Transport and communications 99.63 68.34 47.46 55.04 64.51 79.26 84.83 98.05 108.35 136.11 159.89 176.90 231.12 265.64 328.50 Finance 24.28 23.00 17.85 21.00 23.19 25.48 27.14 40.49 45.03 39.70 100.69 114.60 159.45 186.21 234.30 Public administration (a) 85.23 93.13 48.24 32.56 48.40 56.63 65.65 81.96 99.74 124.44 139.83 162.72 228.18 253.62 295.23 Others (b) 111.40 148.11 106.91 118.75 137.69 136.80 139.50 151.07 164.34 193.17 219.28 253.95 312.98 345.48 392.52 Taxes on imports 44.49 95.94 70.07 75.89 91.29 95.80 98.86 114.11 142.71 171.79 229.53 266.52 340.35 351.63 415.00 (a). Item refers to public wage bill. (b) Item refers to ownership of dwellings, nonprofit institutions serving households, hotels and restaurants, and other services. Table A.4: GDP at Current Price (Unit: Million US$) ADB (2011), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 119 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Brunei 13,893 14,209 15,662 15,012 14,571 16,478 17,370 17,225 13,085 14,514 18,477 16,828 17,181 18,930 22,345 26,587 31,469 33,102 38,445 28,237 31,982 41,662 41,703 Cambodia 106 230 270 261 248 297 295 281 253 281 288 309 327 349 393 455 514 603 711 703 753 853 934 Indonesia 634 699 746 838 923 1,038 1,154 1,083 473 687 800 767 922 1,091 1,178 1,291 1,623 1,898 2,211 2,300 2,986 3,511 3,592 LaoPDR 218 250 279 306 346 392 399 368 254 272 308 309 320 363 419 474 610 712 879 916 1,105 1,320 1,446 Malaysia 2,374 2,649 3,102 3,413 3,698 4,295 4,752 4,601 3,232 3,455 3,992 3,846 4,078 4,352 4,816 5,421 6,066 7,122 8,390 7,203 8,634 9,941 10,304 Myanmar n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 134 173 178 129 130 197 195 216 257 350 533 587 742 824 835 Philippines 796 797 911 914 1,052 1,200 1,311 1,273 961 1,081 1,055 970 1,015 1,025 1,093 1,209 1,405 1,684 1,918 1,851 2,155 2,386 2,614 Singapore 12,387 13,986 15,697 17,687 20,779 23,718 25,074 25,284 21,475 21,073 22,791 21,001 22,028 23,029 26,419 28,498 31,739 36,754 38,213 37,195 44,697 50,000 51,162 Thailand 1,521 1,689 1,894 2,088 2,442 2,826 3,027 2,481 1,820 1,989 1,983 1,854 2,020 2,261 2,603 2,825 3,296 3,918 4,300 4,151 4,992 5,395 5,678 Vietnam 98 114 144 189 230 289 338 362 361 375 402 413 440 489 554 637 724 835 1,048 1,068 1,174 1,374 1,528 Table A.5: GDP per Capita of ASEAN Members, 1996-2010 (Unit: US$) Sources: IMF (2013), World Economic Outlook Database. 120 Appendix B: Lao PDR’s Government Revenue (US$ Million) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total revenue and grants 299.23 236.67 171.81 205.80 274.68 276.51 255.31 264.73 293.30 364.56 484.40 658.42 858.27 959.79 1465.07 Total revenue 235.93 181.19 111.27 130.84 214.42 223.38 231.42 221.85 266.61 317.88 411.09 556.16 735.99 825.55 1033.79 Current revenue 235.93 181.19 111.27 130.84 214.42 223.38 231.42 221.85 266.61 317.88 411.09 556.16 735.99 825.55 1033.79 Taxes 190.98 150.48 88.01 104.97 173.30 181.90 186.81 182.37 219.99 263.06 349.59 491.57 643.20 728.93 908.44 Nontaxes 44.95 30.71 23.25 25.87 41.13 41.49 44.61 39.47 46.62 54.82 61.50 64.59 92.79 96.62 125.35 Grants 63.30 55.48 60.55 74.96 60.26 53.12 23.90 42.88 26.69 46.68 73.30 102.26 122.26 134.24 431.30 Total revenue 12.59 9.88 8.56 9.32 13.09 13.47 13.16 11.01 11.22 11.70 11.61 13.57 14.37 14.89 15.7 Taxes 10.19 8.21 6.77 7.48 10.58 10.97 10.62 9.05 9.26 9.68 9.87 12.00 12.56 13.14 13.8 Total expenditure 19.51 16.38 18.37 16.56 20.77 22.22 18.68 19.60 15.38 18.39 17.17 19.06 19.39 20.97 24.8 Overall budget balance -5.74 -4.93 -6.53 -2.58 -4.55 -4.48 -3.36 -5.73 -2.58 -4.52 -3.13 -2.71 -2.29 -3.36 -2.3 Total revenue and grants -20.91 -27.40 19.78 33.47 0.66 -7.66 3.69 10.79 24.30 32.87 35.93 30.35 11.83 52.65 Total revenue 5.06 60.75 153.19 82.02 18.27 16.34 0.75 20.37 20.02 23.31 27.87 20.50 9.24 21.44 Current revenue 5.06 60.75 153.19 82.02 18.27 16.34 0.75 20.37 20.02 23.31 27.87 20.50 9.24 21.44 Taxes 7.79 53.11 156.80 83.35 19.16 15.34 2.60 20.81 20.37 26.71 32.91 19.14 10.37 20.86 Nontaxes -6.52 98.19 139.50 76.59 14.52 20.75 -7.00 18.29 18.36 6.98 -0.73 30.81 1.41 25.81 Grants 19.90 185.69 166.60 -10.73 0.08 -49.48 88.60 -37.67 76.07 49.73 31.86 8.87 6.93 211.59 Percent Change Percent of GDP Table B.1: Government Revenue, 1996-2010 (Unit: US$ Million) Sources: ADB (2011), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 121 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 A. Tax Revenue 176.0 190.2 290.3 745.5 1,366.9 1,642.1 1,878.7 1,927.5 2,328.9 2,794.3 3,641.1 4,720.7 5,627.1 6,207.6 7,502.6 9,108.64 10,914.85 Profit Tax 20.7 25.6 33.4 80.4 186.5 205.2 242.7 225.5 221.6 310.0 458.9 918.6 1,321.6 1,303.0 1,124.9 1,592.15 2,196.03 Income Tax 13.5 11.9 19.5 69.6 117.1 152.7 125.5 139.8 179.4 215.0 234.2 251.8 333.0 424.7 462.4 543.46 744.20 Agricultural/land Tax 2.1 2.4 3.1 4.8 7.3 16.8 19.3 23.2 25.2 27.6 30.1 46.6 78.0 63.9 77.6 98.15 55.15 Business Licenses 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.2 6.1 1.5 2.5 3.7 2.5 0.01 - Minimum Tax 9.9 9.2 9.9 12.8 22.2 19.3 21.5 29.2 33.3 41.61 49.56 Turnover Tax 33.9 39.9 62.8 159.8 290.0 318.0 374.7 466.5 594.5 655.8 887.1 1,046.0 1,228.5 1,401.0 1,868.6 510.04 410.81 VAT 1,893.10 2,416.21 Excise Tax 15.5 16.9 50.2 147.3 226.2 371.3 285.9 293.5 483.5 522.8 800.3 998.7 1,190.0 1,432.5 1,686.6 1,947.59 2,344.31 Import Duties 40.6 45.7 51.5 98.5 134.6 178.9 240.3 315.8 351.2 422.7 514.6 572.6 674.2 726.2 832.0 964.63 1,047.33 Export Duties 6.0 6.8 10.4 24.4 41.2 56.7 50.6 46.5 28.1 43.7 53.1 25.9 22.3 48.8 58.8 115.08 105.07 Registration Fees 1.5 1.8 2.1 4.9 7.2 15.0 12.4 14.0 16.0 17.6 24.7 49.0 13.9 26.7 44.6 55.47 45.97 Natural Resources Taxes 0.7 1.1 2.0 5.3 14.1 23.6 16.9 23.0 32.4 94.8 217.6 273.8 316.5 219.5 450.6 526.89 705.72 Timber Royalties 34.6 31.7 36.8 89.5 272.5 181.5 361.8 218.0 225.0 196.8 172.5 212.3 105.2 78.1 49.3 92.74 78.60 Hydropower Royalties - - 4.5 17.4 22.2 51.2 46.3 45.0 31.6 57.1 57.2 43.0 56.4 77.7 109.3 195.32 178.49 Other Fees 6.6 6.2 13.9 33.3 46.6 70.7 91.6 106.5 129.0 215.5 162.6 261.6 263.4 372.6 702.0 532.41 537.40 B. Non-Tax Revenue 41.4 47.8 87.2 183.8 324.4 387.3 448.6 417.2 493.6 596.1 624.9 620.3 812.0 822.9 1,035.8 1,072.63 1,512.90 Leasing Fees 3.8 5.3 9.6 11.4 15.2 38.9 22.0 35.6 27.8 44.2 36.1 29.9 27.2 41.1 38.0 29.82 80.78 Concession 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.6 3.0 4.4 8.1 7.4 8.7 17.9 30.7 37.6 31.02 55.53 Depreciation and Dividend 5.2 9.0 7.7 22.0 41.7 67.2 84.2 86.6 106.4 177.8 174.8 156.7 293.3 338.4 419.0 507.43 763.95 Interest 15.5 16.7 15.5 88.9 79.1 76.3 56.2 47.4 46.1 48.0 650.5 65.9 105.3 94.7 147.2 97.69 100.97 Overflight 9.8 10.5 33.0 40.3 122.5 114.4 187.2 174.2 198.3 221.8 228.6 231.2 235.4 203.4 222.4 244.81 257.49 Penalties - - 6.9 8.8 14.4 12.1 12.7 16.2 19.7 15.3 23.8 33.1 31.4 25.3 29.8 43.27 39.77 Administratin Fees - - 3.6 11.3 17.2 23.6 84.8 54.1 90.9 81.0 89.2 94.9 100.9 76.0 122.5 98.92 189.63 Others 6.7 6.2 10.5 - 32.6 24.4 - - - - 0.5 7.1 7.83 11.24 C. Total Tax and Non-Tax Revenue 217.4 238.1 377.5 929.0 1,694.3 2,000.4 2,327.2 2,344.8 2,822.5 3,390.4 4,266.0 5,341.0 6,439.1 7,030.4 8,538.4 10,181.27 12,427.75 Table B.2: Government Revenue, 1995/96-2009/10 (Unit: Billion Kip) Sources: Ministry of Finance (2013). 122 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Profit Tax 23.67 30.47 140.72 131.97 10.03 18.27 -7.10 -1.73 39.90 48.03 100.19 43.87 -1.41 -13.67 Income Tax -11.85 63.87 256.92 68.25 30.40 -17.81 11.42 28.28 19.86 8.95 7.51 32.24 27.52 8.88 Land Tax 14.29 29.17 54.84 52.08 130.14 14.88 20.00 8.59 9.82 9.09 54.56 67.38 -18.01 21.38 Turnover Tax 17.70 57.39 154.46 81.48 9.66 17.83 24.49 27.45 10.32 35.27 17.91 17.45 14.04 33.37 Excise Tax 9.03 197.04 193.43 53.56 64.15 -23.00 2.65 64.73 8.13 53.08 24.79 19.16 20.38 17.74 Import Duties 12.56 12.69 91.26 36.65 32.91 34.32 31.41 11.23 20.35 21.73 11.28 17.74 7.72 14.57 Export Duties 13.33 52.94 134.62 68.85 37.62 -10.76 -8.14 -39.46 55.22 21.63 -51.33 -13.92 119.41 20.41 Natural Resources Taxes 57.14 81.82 165.00 166.04 67.38 -28.39 36.21 40.66 192.77 129.48 25.86 15.60 -30.66 105.28 Timber Royalties -8.38 16.09 143.21 204.47 -33.39 99.34 -39.76 3.25 -12.56 -12.36 23.09 -50.45 -25.80 -36.84 Hydropower Royalties 286.67 27.59 130.63 -9.57 -2.81 -29.69 80.50 0.09 -24.70 31.04 37.70 40.71 Table B.3: Growth Rate of the Components of Tax Revenue, 1996/97-2009/10 (Billion Kip) Sources: Ministry of Finance (2013) 123 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Profit Tax 11.76 13.46 11.51 10.78 13.64 12.50 12.92 11.70 9.51 11.09 12.60 19.46 23.49 20.99 14.99 Income Tax 7.67 6.26 6.72 9.34 8.57 9.30 6.68 7.25 7.70 7.69 6.43 5.33 5.92 6.84 6.16 Land Tax 1.19 1.26 1.07 0.64 0.53 1.02 1.03 1.20 1.08 0.99 0.83 0.99 1.39 1.03 1.03 Business Licenses 0.06 0.11 0.10 0.04 0.10 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.17 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.03 Minimum Tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.48 0.43 0.46 0.61 0.41 0.38 0.47 0.44 Turnover Tax 19.26 20.98 21.63 21.44 21.22 19.37 19.94 24.20 25.53 23.47 24.36 22.16 21.83 22.57 24.91 Excise Tax 8.81 8.89 17.29 19.76 16.55 22.61 15.22 15.23 20.76 18.71 21.98 21.16 21.15 23.08 22.48 Import Duties 23.07 24.03 17.74 13.21 9.85 10.89 12.79 16.38 15.08 15.13 14.13 12.13 11.98 11.70 11.09 Export Duties 3.41 3.58 3.58 3.27 3.01 3.45 2.69 2.41 1.21 1.56 1.46 0.55 0.40 0.79 0.78 Registration Fees 0.85 0.95 0.72 0.66 0.53 0.91 0.66 0.72 0.69 0.63 0.68 1.04 0.25 0.43 0.59 Natural Resources Taxes 0.40 0.58 0.69 0.71 1.03 1.44 0.90 1.19 1.39 3.39 5.97 5.80 5.62 3.54 6.01 Timber Royalties 19.66 16.67 12.68 12.01 19.94 11.05 19.26 11.31 9.66 7.04 4.74 4.50 1.87 1.26 0.66 Hydropower Royalties 0.00 0.00 1.55 2.33 1.62 3.12 2.46 2.33 1.36 2.04 1.57 0.91 1.00 1.25 1.46 Other Fees 3.75 3.26 4.79 4.47 3.41 4.31 4.88 5.53 5.54 7.71 4.47 5.54 4.68 6.00 9.36 Table B.4: Percent Share of the Components of Tax Revenue, 1995/96-2009/10 (Billion Kip) Sources: Ministry of Finance (2013) 124 Appendix C: External Trade 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thailand 96.7 34.3 28.8 51.6 68.9 81.0 85.0 94.3 104.3 204.4 475.5 431.5 568.7 423.7 689.7 China PR 0.8 0.3 7.2 8.7 5.8 6.8 8.8 10.2 11.5 23.2 45.1 77.3 135.9 306.0 510.9 Vietnam 157.6 0.2 119.5 179.4 96.1 61.8 56.9 55.2 67.5 88.6 151.5 192.1 253.4 225.9 232.1 UK 6.6 14.9 7.7 12.5 7.2 9.3 13.4 14.1 26.8 8.3 1.4 42.3 54.5 62.3 69.9 Germany 4.8 16.2 21.4 27.0 20.8 25.5 22.0 23.6 28.7 31.6 34.6 43.0 42.0 48.0 53.3 USA 2.7 7.0 20.0 12.6 8.8 3.6 2.6 4.0 3.4 4.1 8.5 19.1 40.4 41.7 56.3 ROK 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.9 16.1 63.9 48.2 15.9 16.4 France 8.2 20.0 23.3 18.2 27.1 33.7 33.8 33.6 43.4 41.9 29.1 27.2 23.0 12.8 15.6 Japan 1.7 6.7 17.8 12.3 10.9 6.3 6.1 6.7 7.3 7.3 11.3 10.9 16.4 24.4 34.2 Malaysia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 11.8 44.6 32.4 2.7 0.1 0.1 Total Exports 320.7 192.1 370.8 462.5 391.3 375.7 386.1 437.5 535.2 696.4 1177.9 1323.9 1608.7 1521.0 2087.8 Table C1: Direction of the Exports of Lao PDR, 1996-2010 (Unit: US$ Million) Sources: ADB (2010), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 125 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thailand 30.15 17.85 7.77 11.15 17.60 21.57 22.02 21.57 19.48 29.35 40.36 32.59 35.35 27.86 33.03 China PR 0.25 0.15 1.94 1.88 1.49 1.80 2.27 2.33 2.14 3.33 3.83 5.84 8.45 20.12 24.47 Vietnam 49.14 0.09 32.22 38.80 24.56 16.46 14.74 12.61 12.62 12.73 12.86 14.51 15.75 14.85 11.12 UK 2.06 7.73 2.07 2.71 1.83 2.48 3.46 3.22 5.01 1.19 0.12 3.19 3.39 4.09 3.35 Germany 1.50 8.41 5.78 5.83 5.32 6.78 5.70 5.40 5.37 4.53 2.94 3.25 2.61 3.16 2.56 USA 0.84 3.63 5.39 2.73 2.25 0.97 0.68 0.91 0.63 0.59 0.72 1.44 2.51 2.74 2.70 ROK 0.16 0.35 0.00 0.24 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.24 0.28 1.37 4.83 2.99 1.05 0.78 France 2.56 10.43 6.28 3.94 6.93 8.97 8.76 7.68 8.10 6.02 2.47 2.05 1.43 0.84 0.75 Japan 0.53 3.49 4.80 2.66 2.79 1.68 1.58 1.53 1.36 1.05 0.96 0.82 1.02 1.60 1.64 Malaysia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.04 0.02 1.69 3.79 2.45 0.17 0.01 0.01 Table C2: Percent Share of the Exports by Countries, 1996-2010 Sources: ADB (2010), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 126 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 China PR 68.3 40.4 14.7 22.4 10.0 21.7 2.3 4.6 0.4 3.4 1.8 3.2 0.9 2.0 1.5 2.3 HK, China 42.2 68.7 20.2 12.4 27.2 12.4 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.5 1.8 1.4 5.0 2.4 ROK 34.0 52.6 15.5 11.6 33.4 15.1 3.0 4.8 0.8 3.3 1.4 2.3 1.7 1.7 10.3 8.7 Mongolia 31.6 84.4 45.2 6.8 2.4 8.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Taipei,China 38.2 69.5 18.2 10.7 36.0 13.1 2.1 2.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 0.8 2.3 1.4 0.7 1.0 Bangladesh 14.8 12.4 41.8 45.4 32.3 26.6 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.5 3.3 0.5 2.0 0.8 0.5 12.3 Bhutan 99.3 98.8 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 India 21.0 32.5 47.2 19.9 16.3 15.1 7.1 19.1 0.1 2.9 1.8 5.8 1.2 1.0 5.2 3.7 Maldives 47.0 43.6 26.5 45.4 26.3 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.3 Nepal 14.7 68.6 60.0 15.0 24.1 10.3 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.9 3.6 Sri Lanka 14.8 17.1 30.9 37.1 28.8 23.4 17.8 9.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.6 1.7 4.4 9.7 Brunei 91.6 81.5 0.2 0.2 3.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 17.3 3.4 0.7 Cambodia 90.9 18.1 7.8 24.1 0.4 55.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.5 Indonesia 64.4 65.3 12.8 11.7 13.9 10.2 3.0 3.2 0.1 1.5 0.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 3.5 3.1 Lao PDR 85.2 72.4 11.1 9.9 1.7 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 14.4 Malaysia 57.9 64.2 16.6 11.2 18.1 12.1 2.5 3.2 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.1 2.0 4.1 2.2 3.1 Myanmar 67.4 87.6 10.3 3.1 2.5 0.0 1.5 0.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 16.7 6.7 Philippines 34.8 65.5 18.8 12.8 40.2 15.0 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.8 3.4 4.0 Singapore 45.8 66.1 17.2 10.4 23.0 9.7 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.5 1.4 1.8 3.3 4.5 6.4 4.9 Thailand 37.9 56.8 25.3 13.8 25.3 12.0 5.4 5.0 0.2 2.0 2.1 2.9 1.9 5.3 2.0 2.2 Viet Nam 39.1 40.5 48.1 21.2 0.6 24.0 0.9 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.3 4.7 10.7 6.0 South America Africa Oceania Rest of the World East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia To Asia Europe North and Central Middle East Table C.3: Direction of Trade: Merchandise Exports (Unit: Percent of Total Merchandise Exports) Sources: ADB (2010), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 127 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thailand 310.0 336.7 411.3 452.0 419.0 451.7 444.0 501.5 639.5 846.2 1,125 1,443 1,933 1,801 2,348 China PR 23.2 4.9 19.6 24.4 37.9 59.9 59.7 108.1 110.6 115.9 185.6 195.2 295.0 413.9 524.1 Vietnam 25.8 25.1 80.7 181.8 77.7 70.7 71.2 57.0 75.2 76.1 104.5 120.7 176.3 186.2 191.4 Japan 52.5 10.4 21.0 24.9 23.6 13.0 19.6 15.0 15.4 21.3 22.6 41.7 69.1 83.5 68.3 ROK 2.5 3.3 5.3 11.9 4.9 6.9 4.9 8.7 9.9 15.3 25.7 61.2 58.5 61.3 63.0 Singapore 16.9 0.6 22.1 37.0 32.9 28.9 29.1 22.4 42.3 44.1 45.2 43.0 28.1 40.4 25.3 France 6.7 1.7 6.2 7.6 27.5 8.5 8.9 11.8 10.5 13.5 11.2 12.6 20.1 62.7 15.7 Germany 0.0 0.9 15.4 9.5 3.6 7.4 4.1 7.5 28.0 11.3 12.0 34.8 25.1 18.1 21.4 HK, China 8.1 9.5 8.7 11.0 7.9 10.1 6.1 8.1 8.0 8.3 15.5 14.7 23.4 18.5 30.0 Australia 0.5 0.3 2.3 2.5 4.2 8.3 12.6 7.9 18.3 19.9 20.6 24.1 15.5 9.6 24.8 Total Imports 690 409 645 809 690 719 722 809 1,058 1,270 1,652 2,108 2,837 2,893 3,500 Table C. 4: Direction of the Imports of Lao PDR, 1996-2010 (Unit: US$ Million) Sources: ADB (2010), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 128 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thailand 44.95 82.42 63.81 55.88 60.75 62.78 61.48 62.00 60.47 66.62 68.11 68.45 68.13 62.24 67.10 China PR 3.36 1.20 3.04 3.01 5.49 8.32 8.26 13.36 10.46 9.12 11.23 9.26 10.40 14.31 14.98 Vietnam 3.74 6.13 12.52 22.47 11.27 9.83 9.85 7.04 7.11 5.99 6.32 5.72 6.22 6.44 5.47 Japan 7.61 2.54 3.26 3.08 3.43 1.80 2.72 1.86 1.46 1.68 1.36 1.98 2.44 2.89 1.95 ROK 0.36 0.80 0.82 1.47 0.71 0.96 0.69 1.07 0.93 1.21 1.55 2.90 2.06 2.12 1.80 Singapore 2.45 0.14 3.43 4.57 4.77 4.01 4.03 2.77 4.00 3.47 2.74 2.04 0.99 1.40 0.72 France 0.97 0.41 0.95 0.94 3.98 1.18 1.24 1.46 0.99 1.06 0.68 0.60 0.71 2.17 0.45 Germany 0.00 0.21 2.39 1.18 0.52 1.03 0.57 0.93 2.65 0.89 0.73 1.65 0.89 0.63 0.61 HK, China 1.17 2.34 1.35 1.36 1.14 1.41 0.85 1.01 0.76 0.65 0.94 0.70 0.83 0.64 0.86 Australia 0.07 0.07 0.35 0.30 0.60 1.15 1.75 0.98 1.73 1.57 1.25 1.14 0.55 0.33 0.71 Table C5: Percent Share of the Imports by Countries, 1996-2010 Sources: ADB (2010), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 129 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Exports 50.9 51.5 ... ... ... 65.0 63.3 67.4 64.4 65.5 66.5 62.8 74.3 66.8 68.7 Imports -46.2 -38.7 ... ... ... -19.3 -25.2 -19.1 -17.0 -14.8 -13.8 -16.3 -19.9 -21.3 -17.0 Trade Balance 4.7 12.8 ... ... ... 45.7 38.1 48.3 47.4 50.7 52.6 46.5 54.5 45.6 51.7 Exports 18.4 25.1 | 25.6 32.1 38.1 39.5 41.3 44.7 48.5 46.2 50.8 47.3 45.5 40.3 46.2 Imports -30.6 -31.8 | -37.2 -45.2 -52.8 -52.6 -55.0 -57.2 -61.3 -62.3 -65.6 -62.9 -62.9 -56.0 -61.8 Trade Balance -12.2 -6.7 | -11.6 -13.1 -14.7 -13.1 -13.8 -12.5 -12.7 -16.1 -14.8 -15.6 -17.4 -15.7 -15.6 Exports 22.1 26.1 52.8 36.6 39.6 35.8 30.2 27.3 27.6 30.4 28.4 27.3 27.4 22.2 22.4 Imports -19.5 -21.4 -33.5 -21.9 -24.5 -21.6 -18.2 -16.8 -19.7 -24.3 -20.3 -19.7 -22.9 -16.6 -18.0 Trade Balance 2.6 4.7 19.3 14.7 15.2 14.1 12.0 10.5 7.8 6.1 8.1 7.6 4.5 5.6 4.4 Exports 16.9 17.1 25.9 21.5 20.2 19.3 17.1 16.7 15.3 20.4 24.9 22.5 21.3 19.0 26.6 Imports -36.8 -35.3 -42.5 -39.5 -32.7 -30.8 -25.4 -22.9 -30.0 -32.5 -29.9 -26.0 -27.4 -26.3 -31.3 Trade Balance -19.9 -18.3 -16.6 -18.0 -12.5 -11.5 -8.3 -6.3 -14.7 -12.1 -5.0 -3.5 -6.1 -7.4 -4.8 Exports 76.2 77.3 99.4 106.3 104.9 94.8 93.6 95.0 101.7 103.2 102.7 94.3 89.5 81.5 83.4 Imports -72.2 -73.6 -75.0 -77.6 -82.7 -75.0 -74.7 -71.7 -79.6 -78.6 -78.8 -74.1 -66.5 -60.6 -65.6 Trade Balance 4.0 3.6 24.4 28.6 22.2 19.8 18.8 23.3 22.1 24.7 23.9 20.2 23.0 20.8 17.8 Exports 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Imports -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Trade Balance -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Exports 24.8 30.6 40.8 41.3 46.1 41.1 42.3 42.1 42.5 39.1 38.1 33.1 27.7 22.3 25.4 Imports -38.5 -44.2 -40.9 -48.5 -53.5 -49.3 -49.1 -49.1 -48.7 -46.6 -43.6 -38.8 -35.1 -27.6 -30.6 Trade Balance -13.7 -13.5 -0.0 -7.2 -7.4 -8.2 -6.8 -7.0 -6.2 -7.5 -5.5 -5.6 -7.4 -5.3 -5.2 Exports 185.6 188.8 170.9 181.0 148.9 160.7 Imports -156.5 -159.7 -144.5 -166.3 -133.0 -139.8 Trade Balance 29.0 29.0 26.4 14.7 15.9 20.9 Exports 30.0 37.6 47.3 46.3 55.3 54.6 52.1 54.8 58.8 62.0 61.8 61.2 64.3 57.2 60.7 Imports -38.9 -40.7 -36.3 -38.8 -50.9 -52.4 -49.9 -52.1 -57.9 -66.7 -61.3 -56.1 -64.4 -49.8 -56.3 Trade Balance -8.9 -3.1 10.9 7.6 4.5 2.2 2.2 2.6 0.9 -4.7 0.5 5.2 -0.1 7.4 4.4 Exports 29.4 34.2 34.4 40.2 46.3 46.0 47.6 50.9 58.3 61.3 65.4 68.4 68.8 58.8 67.9 Imports -40.7 -38.9 -38.0 -36.8 -45.1 -44.5 -50.7 -57.5 -63.2 -65.9 -69.9 -83.0 -82.8 -67.3 -74.5 Trade Balance -11.3 -4.6 -3.6 3.4 1.2 1.5 -3.0 -6.5 -4.9 -4.6 -4.6 -14.6 -14.0 -8.5 -6.7 Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Myanmar Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Table C.6: Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance of ASEAN Countries (Unit: Percent of GDP) Sources: ADB (2010), Key Indicators for Developing Asian and Pacific Countries. 130 Appendix D: Regression Results by Using Lao Data Dependent Variable: ln(EXP) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/21/13 Time: 21:52 Sample (adjusted): 1991 2012 Included observations: 22 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -17.222 4.848 -3.553 0.003 ln(GDPF) 1.772 0.328 5.403 0.000 ln(EXR) 0.300 0.137 2.187 0.044 ln(INFR) 0.016 0.046 0.347 0.733 ln(TAXA) -0.081 0.249 -0.328 0.747 LIB -0.251 0.259 -0.967 0.348 R-squared 0.950 Mean dependent var 6.143 Adjusted R-squared 0.935 S.D. dependent var 0.846 S.E. of regression 0.216 Akaike info criterion 0.002 Sum squared resid 0.748 Schwarz criterion 0.299 Log likelihood 5.979 F-statistic 61.069 Durbin-Watson stat 1.574 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table D.1: Estimated Results of Export Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 131 Dependent Variable: ln(IMP) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/21/13 Time: 21:12 Sample (adjusted): 1991 2012 Included observations: 22 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -7.246 2.377 -3.048 0.008 ln(GDP) 1.540 0.265 5.817 0.000 ln(EXR) 0.141 0.094 1.497 0.154 ln(INFR) -0.003 0.039 -0.076 0.940 ln(TAXL) 0.678 0.371 1.825 0.087 LIB -0.615 0.235 -2.618 0.019 R-squared 0.941 Mean dependent var 6.587 Adjusted R-squared 0.923 S.D. dependent var 0.679 S.E. of regression 0.189 Akaike info criterion -0.271 Sum squared resid 0.570 Schwarz criterion 0.027 Log likelihood 8.978 F-statistic 51.159 Durbin-Watson stat 1.611 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table D.2: Estimated Results of Import Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 132 Dependent Variable: ln(FDI) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/21/13 Time: 21:41 Sample (adjusted): 1991 2012 Included observations: 22 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -27.331 11.745 -2.327 0.033 ln(GDP) 2.682 1.308 2.051 0.057 ln(INFR) -0.066 0.192 -0.342 0.737 ln(EXR) 1.762 0.464 3.796 0.002 ln(TAXL) 1.043 1.835 0.569 0.578 LIB -3.370 1.161 -2.904 0.010 R-squared 0.817 Mean dependent var 7.656 Adjusted R-squared 0.759 S.D. dependent var 1.900 S.E. of regression 0.932 Akaike info criterion 2.924 Sum squared resid 13.899 Schwarz criterion 3.222 Log likelihood -26.165 F-statistic 14.261 Durbin-Watson stat 1.684 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table D.3: Estimated Results of FDI Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 133 Dependent Variable: ln(GOVR) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/23/13 Time: 10:29 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -14.706 6.249 -2.353 0.032 ln(GDP) 2.687 1.247 2.155 0.047 ln(INFR) -1.183 0.221 -5.343 0.000 ln(IMP) 1.089 0.496 2.193 0.043 ln(EXR) 0.213 0.243 0.877 0.394 ln(TAXL) 2.079 1.023 2.033 0.059 LIB -0.626 0.528 -1.187 0.253 R-squared 0.961 Mean dependent var 15.155 Adjusted R-squared 0.946 S.D. dependent var 1.890 S.E. of regression 0.438 Akaike info criterion 1.433 Sum squared resid 3.069 Schwarz criterion 1.778 Log likelihood -9.474 F-statistic 65.620 Durbin-Watson stat 1.532 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table D.4: Estimated Results of Government Revenue Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 134 Appendix E: Regression Results by Using Weighted-Average Data Dependent Variable: ln(EXP) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/13 Time: 14:43 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -11.079 2.579 -4.296 0.001 ln(GDPF) 1.400 0.156 8.956 0.000 ln(INFW) -0.916 0.066 -13.900 0.000 ln(EXRW) 0.636 0.087 7.286 0.000 ln(TAXA) 0.585 0.208 2.819 0.012 LIB 0.548 0.179 3.060 0.007 R-squared 0.995 Mean dependent var 12.774 Adjusted R-squared 0.993 S.D. dependent var 1.768 S.E. of regression 0.145 Akaike info criterion -0.802 Sum squared resid 0.358 Schwarz criterion -0.506 Log likelihood 15.223 F-statistic 648.651 Durbin-Watson stat 1.739 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table E.1: Estimated Results of Export Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 135 Dependent Variable: ln(IMP) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/13 Time: 14:48 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -7.213 2.028 -3.557 0.002 ln(GDP) 2.068 0.215 9.631 0.000 ln(INFW) -0.189 0.072 -2.614 0.018 ln(EXRW) -0.167 0.103 -1.622 0.123 ln(TAXL) 1.147 0.301 3.809 0.001 LIB 0.015 0.243 0.061 0.952 R-squared 0.963 Mean dependent var 9.286 Adjusted R-squared 0.952 S.D. dependent var 0.868 S.E. of regression 0.190 Akaike info criterion -0.267 Sum squared resid 0.612 Schwarz criterion 0.029 Log likelihood 9.074 F-statistic 88.729 Durbin-Watson stat 1.662 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table E.2: Estimated Results of Import Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 136 Dependent Variable: ln(FDI) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/13 Time: 14:50 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -2.898 0.984 -2.945 0.009 ln(GDP) 2.436 0.104 23.378 0.000 ln(INFW) -0.944 0.035 -26.897 0.000 ln(EXRW) 0.217 0.050 4.340 0.000 ln(TAXL) 0.213 0.146 1.456 0.164 LIB 0.478 0.118 4.053 0.001 R-squared 0.998 Mean dependent var 17.002 Adjusted R-squared 0.997 S.D. dependent var 1.772 S.E. of regression 0.092 Akaike info criterion -1.714 Sum squared resid 0.144 Schwarz criterion -1.417 Log likelihood 25.706 F-statistic 1627.567 Durbin-Watson stat 1.443 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table E.3: Estimated Results of FDI Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 137 Dependent Variable: ln(GOVR) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/13 Time: 14:53 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -20.838 3.562 -5.850 0.000 ln(GDP) 1.928 0.765 2.520 0.023 ln(INFW) -1.288 0.127 -10.169 0.000 ln(IMPW) 1.910 0.581 3.290 0.005 ln(EXRW) -0.709 0.263 -2.696 0.016 ln(TAXL) 2.296 0.520 4.415 0.000 LIB -0.328 0.433 -0.756 0.461 R-squared 0.978 Mean dependent var 15.155 Adjusted R-squared 0.970 S.D. dependent var 1.890 S.E. of regression 0.327 Akaike info criterion 0.851 Sum squared resid 1.715 Schwarz criterion 1.196 Log likelihood -2.783 F-statistic 119.519 Durbin-Watson stat 2.168 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table E.4: Estimated Results of Government Revenue Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 138 Appendix F: Regression Results by Excluding Inflation in GOVR Equation and Exchange Rate in EXP, IMP, FDI Equations. Dependent Variable: LOG(EXC) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 14:36 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -30.911 6.014 -5.140 0.000 LOG(GDPF) 2.279 0.412 5.537 0.000 LOG(TAXR10) 1.938 0.497 3.896 0.001 LOG(EXR) 1.179 0.194 6.079 0.000 LIB -0.736 0.480 -1.534 0.143 R-squared 0.949 Mean dependent var 12.774 Adjusted R-squared 0.938 S.D. dependent var 1.768 S.E. of regression 0.441 Akaike info criterion 1.392 Sum squared resid 3.506 Schwarz criterion 1.638 Log likelihood -11.002 F-statistic 83.731 Durbin-Watson stat 2.189 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table F.1: Estimated Results of Export Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 139 Dependent Variable: ln(IMC) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 14:39 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -9.410 2.181 -4.316 0.000 ln(GDP) 2.208 0.256 8.626 0.000 ln(TAXL) 1.455 0.353 4.119 0.001 LOG(EXR) -0.052 0.103 -0.501 0.622 LIB -0.331 0.231 -1.433 0.169 R-squared 0.948 Mean dependent var 9.286 Adjusted R-squared 0.936 S.D. dependent var 0.868 S.E. of regression 0.219 Akaike info criterion -0.011 Sum squared resid 0.862 Schwarz criterion 0.235 Log likelihood 5.131 F-statistic 82.038 Durbin-Watson stat 1.372 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table F.2: Estimated Results of Import Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 140 Dependent Variable: ln(FDI) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 14:43 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -11.125 5.535 -2.010 0.060 ln(GDP) 2.683 0.650 4.130 0.001 ln(TAXL) 0.958 0.897 1.069 0.299 ln(EXR) 0.795 0.262 3.036 0.007 LIB -1.219 0.586 -2.083 0.052 R-squared 0.920 Mean dependent var 17.002 Adjusted R-squared 0.902 S.D. dependent var 1.772 S.E. of regression 0.555 Akaike info criterion 1.851 Sum squared resid 5.553 Schwarz criterion 2.098 Log likelihood -16.292 F-statistic 51.493 Durbin-Watson stat 1.819 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table F.3: Estimated Results of FDI Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 141 Dependent Variable: ln(GOVR) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 15:39 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -15.883 6.062 -2.620 0.018 ln(GDP) 3.149 1.122 2.808 0.012 ln(IMP) 0.977 0.477 2.051 0.056 ln(INFR) -1.283 0.188 -6.808 0.000 ln(TAXL) 2.522 0.884 2.852 0.011 LIB -0.296 0.367 -0.806 0.431 R-squared 0.959 Mean dependent var 15.155 Adjusted R-squared 0.947 S.D. dependent var 1.890 S.E. of regression 0.435 Akaike info criterion 1.393 Sum squared resid 3.217 Schwarz criterion 1.689 Log likelihood -10.014 F-statistic 79.673 Durbin-Watson stat 1.660 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table F.4: Estimated Results of Government Revenue Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 142 Appendix G: Regression Results by Excluding Inflation and Exchange Rate in All Equations. Dependent Variable: ln(EXP) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 14:51 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -34.966 10.164 -3.440 0.003 ln(GDPF) 3.106 0.661 4.703 0.000 ln(TAXL) 2.683 0.820 3.273 0.004 LIB 1.393 0.559 2.494 0.022 R-squared 0.844 Mean dependent var 12.774 Adjusted R-squared 0.820 S.D. dependent var 1.768 S.E. of regression 0.751 Akaike info criterion 2.421 Sum squared resid 10.703 Schwarz criterion 2.618 Log likelihood -23.838 F-statistic 34.338 Durbin-Watson stat 0.861 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table G.1: Estimated Results of Export Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 143 Dependent Variable: ln(IMP) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 14:50 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -9.230 2.108 -4.379 0.000 ln(GDP) 2.152 0.226 9.516 0.000 ln(TAXL) 1.368 0.302 4.528 0.000 LIB -0.415 0.154 -2.701 0.014 R-squared 0.947 Mean dependent var 9.286 Adjusted R-squared 0.939 S.D. dependent var 0.868 S.E. of regression 0.214 Akaike info criterion -0.084 Sum squared resid 0.874 Schwarz criterion 0.113 Log likelihood 4.971 F-statistic 113.785 Durbin-Watson stat 1.376 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table G.2: Estimated Results of Import Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 144 Dependent Variable: ln(FDI) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 14:53 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -13.906 6.533 -2.128 0.047 ln(GDP) 3.536 0.701 5.043 0.000 ln(TAXL) 2.286 0.937 2.440 0.025 LIB 0.084 0.477 0.177 0.862 R-squared 0.878 Mean dependent var 17.002 Adjusted R-squared 0.859 S.D. dependent var 1.772 S.E. of regression 0.665 Akaike info criterion 2.178 Sum squared resid 8.397 Schwarz criterion 2.376 Log likelihood -21.048 F-statistic 45.778 Durbin-Watson stat 1.132 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table G.3: Estimated Results of FDI Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 145 Dependent Variable: ln(GOVR) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/14 Time: 15:05 Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -4.791 1.779 -2.693 0.014 Ln(GDP) 2.200 0.404 5.450 0.000 Ln(TAXL) 1.265 0.380 3.334 0.004 LIB -1.025 0.422 -2.429 0.025 R-squared 0.795 Mean dependent var 6.582 Adjusted R-squared 0.762 S.D. dependent var 0.821 S.E. of regression 0.400 Akaike info criterion 1.163 Sum squared resid 3.044 Schwarz criterion 1.361 Log likelihood -9.379 F-statistic 24.502 Durbin-Watson stat 1.092 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table G.4: Estimated Results of Government Revenue Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2013) 146 Appendix H: Regression Results of Lagged Model Dependent Variable: EXP Method: Least Squares Date: 05/26/14 Time: 15:50 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -1.604 2.937 -0.546 0.602 GDPF -0.241 0.787 -0.307 0.768 GDPF(-1) 1.399 0.791 1.768 0.120 GDPF(-2) -0.130 0.637 -0.205 0.844 TAXL -0.072 0.423 -0.169 0.870 TAXL(-1) 0.307 0.634 0.484 0.643 TAXL(-2) -0.177 0.615 -0.287 0.782 INFR -0.861 0.084 -10.245 0.000 INFR(-1) 0.245 0.179 1.367 0.214 INFR(-2) -0.202 0.194 -1.043 0.332 EXR 1.268 0.649 1.954 0.092 EXR(-1) -0.991 0.968 -1.024 0.340 EXR(-2) 0.090 0.402 0.223 0.830 LIB 0.417 0.194 2.147 0.069 R-squared 0.998 Mean dependent var 5.678 Adjusted R-squared 0.994 S.D. dependent var 0.664 S.E. of regression 0.051 Akaike info criterion -2.879 Sum squared resid 0.018 Schwarz criterion -2.183 Log likelihood 44.235 F-statistic 260.447 Durbin-Watson stat 1.434 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table H.1: Estimated Results of Export Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 147 Dependent Variable: IMP Method: Least Squares Date: 05/26/14 Time: 16:03 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.784 1.886 0.416 0.690 GDP 0.206 2.059 0.100 0.923 GDP(-1) -0.136 1.971 -0.069 0.947 GDP(-2) 1.534 1.130 1.358 0.217 TAXL -1.744 2.193 -0.795 0.453 TAXL(-1) 0.930 4.217 0.220 0.832 TAXL(-2) 0.735 2.177 0.338 0.746 EXR 0.620 0.867 0.716 0.497 EXR(-1) -0.819 1.293 -0.633 0.547 EXR(-2) -0.398 1.415 -0.281 0.787 INFR -0.021 0.161 -0.133 0.898 INFR(-1) -0.221 0.374 -0.591 0.573 INFR(-2) -0.326 0.260 -1.255 0.250 LIB 0.418 0.646 0.648 0.538 R-squared 0.975 Mean dependent var 4.098 Adjusted R-squared 0.928 S.D. dependent var 0.323 S.E. of regression 0.087 Akaike info criterion -1.820 Sum squared resid 0.053 Schwarz criterion -1.123 Log likelihood 33.106 F-statistic 20.887 Durbin-Watson stat 1.732 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table H.2: Estimated Results of Import Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 148 Dependent Variable: FDI Method: Least Squares Date: 05/26/14 Time: 16:17 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -0.797 0.809 -0.985 0.357 GDP 2.372 0.884 2.684 0.031 GDP(-1) -0.138 0.846 -0.163 0.875 GDP(-2) 0.024 0.485 0.050 0.962 TAXL 0.258 0.941 0.274 0.792 TAXL(-1) -0.712 1.810 -0.393 0.706 TAXL(-2) 0.717 0.934 0.767 0.468 EXR -0.048 0.372 -0.130 0.901 EXR(-1) 0.479 0.555 0.863 0.417 EXR(-2) -0.422 0.607 -0.695 0.509 INFR -0.915 0.069 -13.258 0.000 INFR(-1) -0.052 0.160 -0.323 0.756 INFR(-2) -0.020 0.112 -0.178 0.864 LIB 0.138 0.277 0.496 0.635 R-squared 0.999 Mean dependent var 7.514 Adjusted R-squared 0.997 S.D. dependent var 0.666 S.E. of regression 0.037 Akaike info criterion -3.512 Sum squared resid 0.010 Schwarz criterion -2.815 Log likelihood 50.871 F-statistic 493.666 Durbin-Watson stat 2.538 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table H.3: Estimated Results of FDI Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 149 Dependent Variable: GOVR Method: Least Squares Date: 05/26/14 Time: 14:44 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1.511 3.704 0.408 0.700 GDP 3.212 4.770 0.673 0.531 GDP(-1) -3.330 4.406 -0.756 0.484 GDP(-2) -0.441 3.968 -0.111 0.916 TAXL 1.982 4.126 0.480 0.651 TAXL(-1) -8.864 9.533 -0.930 0.395 TAXL(-2) 5.670 5.006 1.133 0.309 IMP 1.662 1.453 1.144 0.305 IMP(-1) -0.339 2.252 -0.151 0.886 IMP(-2) 1.647 2.272 0.725 0.501 EXR(-1) 1.870 3.115 0.600 0.575 EXR(-2) -3.497 2.918 -1.199 0.284 INFR -1.022 0.344 -2.974 0.031 INFR(-1) -0.181 0.800 -0.226 0.830 INFR(-2) -1.143 0.887 -1.288 0.254 LIB 1.502 1.295 1.160 0.299 R-squared 0.982 Mean dependent var 6.757 Adjusted R-squared 0.927 S.D. dependent var 0.608 S.E. of regression 0.164 Akaike info criterion -0.691 Sum squared resid 0.134 Schwarz criterion 0.105 Log likelihood 23.253 F-statistic 18.044 Durbin-Watson stat 1.961 Prob(F-statistic) 0.002 Table H.4: Estimated Results of Government Revenue Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 150 Appendix I: Regression Results by Excluding Inflation in GOVR Equation and Exchange Rate in EXP, IMP, FDI Equations. Dependent Variable: EXP Method: Least Squares Date: 05/27/14 Time: 17:36 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -6.782 10.481 -0.647 0.532 GDPF 0.455 2.148 0.212 0.837 GDPF(-1) 0.111 2.346 0.047 0.963 GDP(-2) 1.709 3.337 0.512 0.620 TAXA 0.249 1.453 0.171 0.867 TAXA(-1) 1.108 1.903 0.582 0.573 TAXA(-2) 0.034 1.736 0.019 0.985 EXR 1.855 1.004 1.847 0.095 EXR(-1) -1.086 1.696 -0.640 0.537 EXR(-2) -0.180 0.814 -0.221 0.829 LIB 0.604 0.776 0.778 0.455 R-squared 0.949 Mean dependent var 5.678 Adjusted R-squared 0.897 S.D. dependent var 0.664 S.E. of regression 0.213 Akaike info criterion 0.049 Sum squared resid 0.453 Schwarz criterion 0.596 Log likelihood 10.489 F-statistic 18.486 Durbin-Watson stat 2.449 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table I.1: Estimated Results of Export Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 151 Dependent Variable: IMP Method: Least Squares Date: 05/27/14 Time: 17:44 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.396 1.263 0.313 0.761 GDP -1.151 1.555 -0.740 0.476 GDP(-1) 0.602 1.659 0.363 0.724 GDP(-2) 1.988 0.906 2.193 0.053 TAXL -1.726 1.348 -1.281 0.229 TAXL(-1) 3.211 2.546 1.261 0.236 TAXL(-2) -1.446 1.358 -1.065 0.312 EXR 0.153 0.767 0.200 0.846 EXR(-1) -1.283 1.044 -1.229 0.247 EXR(-2) 0.659 1.074 0.614 0.553 LIB 0.338 0.420 0.805 0.440 R-squared 0.967 Mean dependent var 4.098 Adjusted R-squared 0.934 S.D. dependent var 0.323 S.E. of regression 0.083 Akaike info criterion -1.839 Sum squared resid 0.069 Schwarz criterion -1.292 Log likelihood 30.312 F- statistic 29.495 Durbin-Watson stat 1.990 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table I.2: Estimated Results of Import Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 152 Dependent Variable: FDI Method: Least Squares Date: 05/27/14 Time: 17:52 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1.092 0.766 1.425 0.185 GDP 1.517 0.828 1.834 0.097 GDP(-1) -0.494 0.867 -0.570 0.582 GDP(-2) 1.190 0.617 1.930 0.083 TAXL 1.222 0.974 1.254 0.238 TAXL(-1) -1.297 1.425 -0.910 0.384 TAXL(-2) -0.083 0.463 -0.180 0.861 INFR -0.787 0.102 -7.733 0.000 INFR(-1) 0.350 0.195 1.794 0.103 INFR(-2) -0.024 0.204 -0.117 0.909 LIB 0.648 0.274 2.360 0.040 R-squared 0.996 Mean dependent var 7.514 Adjusted R-squared 0.993 S.D. dependent var 0.666 S.E. of regression 0.056 Akaike info criterion -2.613 Sum squared resid 0.032 Schwarz criterion -2.066 Log likelihood 38.434 F-statistic 279.768 Durbin-Watson stat 2.034 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table I.3: Estimated Results of FDI Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 153 Dependent Variable: GOVR Method: Least Squares Date: 06/16/14 Time: 13:30 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -2.316 2.111 -1.097 0.309 GDP 2.081 1.961 1.061 0.324 GDP(-1) 0.211 2.117 0.100 0.923 GDP(-2) -3.251 2.131 -1.525 0.171 TAXL -1.854 2.800 -0.662 0.529 TAXL(-1) 4.105 3.952 1.039 0.333 TAXL(-2) -1.084 1.064 -1.018 0.342 INFR -1.355 0.330 -4.100 0.005 INFR(-1) -0.608 0.702 -0.866 0.415 INFR(-2) 0.985 0.525 1.876 0.103 IMP 2.388 0.783 3.048 0.019 IMP(-1) -1.279 0.769 -1.663 0.140 IMP(-2) 1.530 0.593 2.581 0.036 LIB -1.209 1.014 -1.192 0.272 R-squared 0.985 Mean dependent var 6.757 Adjusted R-squared 0.956 S.D. dependent var 0.608 S.E. of regression 0.127 Akaike info criterion -1.053 Sum squared resid 0.113 Schwarz criterion -0.357 Log likelihood 25.057 F-statistic 34.713 Durbin-Watson stat 2.182 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table I.4: Estimated Results of Government Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 154 Appendix J: Regression Results by Excluding Inflation and Exchange Rate in All Equations. Dependent Variable: EXP Method: Least Squares Date: 05/27/14 Time: 17:22 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -22.563 5.112 -4.413 0.001 GDPF 1.196 1.923 0.622 0.545 GDPF(-1) 1.425 1.931 0.738 0.474 GDPF(-2) 1.632 1.760 0.927 0.371 TAXA 0.253 1.410 0.179 0.861 TAXA(-1) 0.375 1.990 0.188 0.853 TAXA(-2) 3.134 1.342 2.336 0.036 LIB 0.297 0.212 1.400 0.185 R-squared 0.905 Mean dependent var 5.678 Adjusted R-squared 0.854 S.D. dependent var 0.664 S.E. of regression 0.254 Akaike info criterion 0.376 Sum squared resid 0.836 Schwarz criterion 0.774 Log likelihood 4.047 F-statistic 17.735 Durbin-Watson stat 1.246 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table J.1: Estimated Results of Export Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 155 Dependent Variable: IMP Method: Least Squares Date: 05/27/14 Time: 17:19 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1.165 0.842 1.383 0.190 GDP -0.314 1.046 -0.300 0.769 GDP(-1) -0.001 1.160 -0.001 0.999 GDP(-2) 1.667 0.845 1.973 0.070 TAXL -0.787 0.829 -0.949 0.360 TAXL(-1) 0.910 1.231 0.739 0.473 TAXL(-2) -0.631 0.322 -1.961 0.072 LIB 0.477 0.320 1.492 0.160 R-squared 0.96 Mean dependent var 4.098 Adjusted R-squared 0.94 S.D. dependent var 0.323 S.E. of regression 0.08 Akaike info criterion -1.917 Sum squared resid 0.08 Schwarz criterion -1.519 Log likelihood 28.13 F-statistic 44.157 Durbin-Watson stat 1.66 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table J.2: Estimated Results of Import Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 156 Dependent Variable: FDI Method: Least Squares Date: 05/27/14 Time: 17:27 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -0.125 1.938 -0.064 0.950 GDP -2.253 2.409 -0.935 0.367 GDP(-1) 1.723 2.670 0.645 0.530 GDP(-2) 2.756 1.945 1.417 0.180 TAXRLAO -0.731 1.908 -0.383 0.708 TAXRLAO(-1) 1.208 2.835 0.426 0.677 TAXRLAO(-2) -0.434 0.740 -0.586 0.568 LIB 0.360 0.737 0.488 0.633 R-squared 0.950 Mean dependent var 7.514 Adjusted R-squared 0.923 S.D. dependent var 0.666 S.E. of regression 0.185 Akaike info criterion -0.250 Sum squared resid 0.447 Schwarz criterion 0.148 Log likelihood 10.620 F-statistic 35.019 Durbin-Watson stat 2.663 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table J.3: Estimated Results of FDI Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014) 157 Dependent Variable: GOVR Method: Least Squares Date: 05/27/14 Time: 17:24 Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012 Included observations: 21 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.364 2.744 0.133 0.896 GDP -2.427 3.411 -0.712 0.489 GDP(-1) 1.384 3.780 0.366 0.720 GDP(-2) 3.312 2.753 1.203 0.251 TAXL -0.399 2.702 -0.148 0.885 TAXL(-1) 0.693 4.013 0.173 0.865 TAXL(-2) -0.677 1.048 -0.645 0.530 LIB 0.583 1.043 0.559 0.586 R-squared 0.879 Mean dependent var 6.757 Adjusted R-squared 0.814 S.D. dependent var 0.608 S.E. of regression 0.263 Akaike info criterion 0.446 Sum squared resid 0.896 Schwarz criterion 0.844 Log likelihood 3.321 F-statistic 13.484 Durbin-Watson stat 1.946 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Table J.4: Estimated Results of Government Revenue Equation Source: Author’s Calculation (2014)