Luận án Nghiên cứu mô hình đánh giá tác động của tài trợ cho hoạt động nghiên cứu và phát triển trong điều kiện thông tin bất cân xứng đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế

16.978 0.001528024 55.000 0.836 0.004554782 512,440 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 56.000 0.836 0.004637596 519,417 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 57.000 0.836 0.00472041 526,393 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 58.000 0.836 0.004803224 533,370 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 59.000 0.836 0.004886038 540,346 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 60.000 0.836 0.004968853 547,323 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 61.000 0.836 0.005051667 554,300 trung bình 44.015 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2007Lp Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Lp 194 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.100 0.000436187 165,473 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.200 0.000872375 202,219 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.300 0.001308562 238,965 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.400 0.001744749 275,712 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.500 0.002180937 312,458 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.600 0.002617124 349,204 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.700 0.003053312 385,950 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.800 0.003489499 422,696 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 0.900 0.003925686 459,442 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.000 0.004361874 496,189 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.005 0.004382431 497,920 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.100 0.004798061 532,935 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.200 0.005234248 569,681 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.300 0.005670436 606,427 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.400 0.006106623 643,173 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.500 0.00654281 679,920 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.600 0.006978998 716,666 168,488,044 0.900 16.978 0.001528024 44.015 1.700 0.007415185 753,412 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2007Ltπ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL (%) (BPM) (BPM) (BPM) (ng) 0.100 165,473 3,854,299 4,019,772 0.990009 167,646,362 1.048 0.200 202,219 3,854,299 4,056,518 0.989018 167,562,876 1.057 0.300 238,965 3,854,299 4,093,264 0.988027 167,479,391 1.066 0.400 275,712 3,854,299 4,130,011 0.987036 167,395,905 1.075 0.500 312,458 3,854,299 4,166,757 0.986045 167,312,419 1.084 0.600 349,204 3,854,299 4,203,503 0.985054 167,228,933 1.093 0.700 385,950 3,854,299 4,240,249 0.984063 167,145,447 1.102 0.800 422,696 3,854,299 4,276,995 0.983072 167,061,961 1.111 0.900 459,442 3,854,299 4,313,741 0.982081 166,978,476 1.120 1.000 496,189 3,854,299 4,350,488 0.981090 166,894,990 1.129 1.005 497,920 3,854,299 4,352,219 0.981043 166,891,055 1.130 1.100 532,935 3,854,299 4,387,234 0.980099 166,811,504 1.138 1.200 569,681 3,854,299 4,423,980 0.979108 166,728,018 1.147 1.300 643,173 3,854,299 4,497,472 0.978117 166,644,532 1.166 1.500 679,920 3,854,299 4,534,219 0.976135 166,477,561 1.174 1.600 716,666 3,854,299 4,570,965 0.984000 167,140,140 1.188 1.700 753,412 3,854,299 4,607,711 0.974153 166,310,589 1.192 Kết quả ứng dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2007 Ltπ tL1−tN tN ( )ttπλ −− 1)1( 11/ −− tttt LNLN ∧ tN 195 Phụ lục 12: Kết quả vận dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2008 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,415,224 0.1 0.1 0.000001 35.827 0.826 0.002957591 249,136 168,415,224 0.2 0.1 0.000002 35.827 0.826 0.002954631 248,971 168,415,224 0.3 0.1 0.000003 35.827 0.826 0.00295167 248,806 168,415,224 0.4 0.1 0.000004 35.827 0.826 0.00294871 248,641 168,415,224 0.5 0.1 0.000005 35.827 0.826 0.002945749 248,476 168,415,224 0.6 0.1 0.000006 35.827 0.826 0.002942789 248,310 168,415,224 0.7 0.1 0.000007 35.827 0.826 0.002939828 248,145 168,415,224 0.8 0.1 0.000008 35.827 0.826 0.002936867 247,980 168,415,224 0.9 0.1 0.000009 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 247,815 168,415,224 1 0.1 0.00001 35.827 0.826 0.002930946 247,650 168,415,224 1.1 0.1 0.000011 35.827 0.826 0.002927986 247,485 168,415,224 1.2 0.1 0.000012 35.827 0.826 0.002925025 247,320 168,415,224 1.3 0.1 0.000013 35.827 0.826 0.002922065 247,155 168,415,224 1.4 0.1 0.000014 35.827 0.826 0.002919104 246,990 168,415,224 1.5 0.1 0.000015 35.827 0.826 0.002916144 246,825 168,415,224 1.6 0.1 0.000016 35.827 0.826 0.002913183 246,660 168,415,224 1.7 0.1 0.000017 35.827 0.826 0.002910222 246,494 168,415,224 1.8 0.1 0.000018 35.827 0.826 0.002907262 246,329 168,415,224 1.9 0.1 0.000019 35.827 0.826 0.002904301 246,164 168,415,224 2 0.1 0.00002 35.827 0.826 0.002901341 245,999 168,415,224 2.1 0.1 0.000021 35.827 0.826 0.00289838 245,834 168,415,224 2.2 0.1 0.000022 35.827 0.826 0.00289542 245,669 168,415,224 2.3 0.1 0.000023 35.827 0.826 0.002892459 245,504 168,415,224 2.4 0.1 0.000024 35.827 0.826 0.002889499 245,339 168,415,224 2.5 0.1 0.000025 35.827 0.826 0.002886538 245,174 trung bình 0.9 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2008λ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL λ (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,415,224 0.900 0.10 0.00001 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 247,815 168,415,224 0.900 1.00 0.00009 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 254,636 168,415,224 0.900 2.00 0.00018 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 262,215 168,415,224 0.900 3.00 0.00027 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 269,793 168,415,224 0.900 4.00 0.00036 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 277,372 168,415,224 0.900 5.00 0.00045 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 284,951 168,415,224 0.900 6.00 0.00054 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 292,529 168,415,224 0.900 7.00 0.00063 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 300,108 168,415,224 0.900 8.00 0.00072 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 307,687 168,415,224 0.900 9.00 0.00081 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 315,265 168,415,224 0.900 10.00 0.00090 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 322,844 168,415,224 0.900 11.00 0.00099 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 330,423 168,415,224 0.900 12.00 0.00108 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 338,002 168,415,224 0.900 13.00 0.00117 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 345,580 168,415,224 0.900 14.00 0.00126 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 353,159 168,415,224 0.900 15.00 0.00135 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 360,738 168,415,224 0.900 16.00 0.00144 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 368,316 168,415,224 0.900 17.00 0.00153 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 375,895 168,415,224 0.900 18.00 0.00162 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 383,474 168,415,224 0.900 19.00 0.00171 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 391,052 168,415,224 0.900 20.00 0.00180 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 398,631 168,415,224 0.900 21.00 0.00189 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 406,210 168,415,224 0.900 22.00 0.00198 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 413,788 168,415,224 0.900 23.00 0.00207 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 421,367 168,415,224 0.900 24.00 0.00216 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 428,946 168,415,224 0.900 25.00 0.00225 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 436,524 168,415,224 0.900 26.00 0.00234 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 444,103 168,415,224 0.900 27.00 0.00243 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 451,682 168,415,224 0.900 28.00 0.00252 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 459,260 168,415,224 0.900 29.00 0.00261 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 466,839 168,415,224 0.900 30.00 0.00270 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 474,418 168,415,224 0.900 31.00 0.00279 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 481,997 168,415,224 0.900 32.00 0.00288 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 489,575 168,415,224 0.900 33.00 0.00297 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 497,154 168,415,224 0.900 33.19 0.00299 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 498,602 168,415,224 0.900 35.00 0.00315 35.827 0.826 0.002933907 512,311 trung bình 16.980 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2008Hp Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Hp 196 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.00152818 35.827 0.826 0.0029339 375,741 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 36.000 0.826 0.0029481 376,937 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 37.000 0.826 0.0030300 383,832 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 38.000 0.826 0.0031119 390,728 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 39.000 0.826 0.0031938 397,624 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 40.000 0.826 0.0032757 404,520 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 41.000 0.826 0.0033576 411,416 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 42.000 0.826 0.0034394 418,312 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 43.000 0.826 0.0035213 425,208 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.000 0.826 0.0036032 432,104 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 45.000 0.826 0.0036851 439,000 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 46.000 0.826 0.0037670 445,896 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 47.000 0.826 0.0038489 452,792 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 48.000 0.826 0.0039308 459,687 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 49.000 0.826 0.0040127 466,583 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 50.000 0.826 0.0040946 473,479 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 51.000 0.826 0.0041765 480,375 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 52.000 0.826 0.0042584 487,271 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 53.000 0.826 0.0043403 494,167 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 53.643 0.826 0.0043929 498,602 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 55.000 0.826 0.0045040 507,959 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 56.000 0.826 0.0045859 514,855 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 57.000 0.826 0.0046678 521,751 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 58.000 0.826 0.0047497 528,646 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 59.000 0.826 0.0048316 535,542 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 60.000 0.826 0.0049135 542,438 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 61.000 0.826 0.0049954 549,334 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 62.000 0.826 0.0050773 556,230 trung bình 44.523 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2008Lp Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Lp 197 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.10 0.000441228 165,839 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.20 0.000882456 202,994 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.30 0.001323683 240,148 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.40 0.001764911 277,303 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.50 0.002206139 314,458 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.60 0.002647367 351,613 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.70 0.003088594 388,767 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.80 0.003529822 425,922 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 0.90 0.00397105 463,077 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.00 0.00439293 498,602 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.10 0.004853506 537,386 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.20 0.005294733 574,541 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.30 0.005735961 611,696 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.40 0.006177189 648,850 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.50 0.006618417 686,005 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.60 0.007059644 723,160 168,415,224 0.900 16.980 0.001528177 44.523 1.70 0.007500872 760,315 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2008Ltπ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL (%) (BPM) (BPM) (BPM) (ng) 0.10 165,839 4,352,219 4,518,058 0.99001 167,573,906 1.042 0.20 202,994 4,352,219 4,555,213 0.98902 167,490,456 1.050 0.30 240,148 4,352,219 4,592,367 0.98803 167,407,007 1.058 0.40 277,303 4,352,219 4,629,522 0.98704 167,323,557 1.066 0.50 314,458 4,352,219 4,666,677 0.98605 167,240,107 1.074 0.60 351,613 4,352,219 4,703,832 0.98505 167,156,657 1.083 0.70 388,767 4,352,219 4,740,986 0.98406 167,073,208 1.091 0.80 425,922 4,352,219 4,778,141 0.98307 166,989,758 1.099 0.90 463,077 4,352,219 4,815,296 0.98208 166,906,308 1.107 1.00 498,602 4,352,219 4,850,821 0.98113 166,826,518 1.114 1.10 537,386 4,352,219 4,889,605 0.98010 166,739,409 1.122 1.20 574,541 4,352,219 4,926,760 0.97911 166,655,959 1.130 1.30 611,696 4,352,219 4,963,915 0.97812 166,572,509 1.138 1.40 648,850 4,352,219 5,001,069 0.97713 166,489,059 1.146 1.50 686,005 4,352,219 5,038,224 0.97614 166,405,610 1.154 1.60 723,160 4,352,219 5,075,379 0.97514 166,322,160 1.162 1.70 760,315 4,352,219 5,112,534 0.98300 166,983,695 1.175 Kết quả ứng dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2008 Ltπ tL1−tN tN ( )ttπλ −− 1)1( 11/ −− tttt LNLN ∧ tN 198 Phụ lục 13: Kết quả vận dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2009 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 155,296,969 0.1 0.1 0.000001 20.770 0.933 0.00193632 150,430 155,296,969 0.2 0.1 0.000002 20.770 0.933 0.00193438 150,357 155,296,969 0.3 0.1 0.000003 20.770 0.933 0.00193244 150,284 155,296,969 0.4 0.1 0.000004 20.770 0.933 0.00193050 150,211 155,296,969 0.5 0.1 0.000005 20.770 0.933 0.00192856 150,138 155,296,969 0.6 0.1 0.000006 20.770 0.933 0.00192662 150,065 155,296,969 0.7 0.1 0.000007 20.770 0.933 0.00192469 149,993 155,296,969 0.8 0.1 0.000008 20.770 0.933 0.00192275 149,920 155,296,969 0.9 0.1 0.000009 20.770 0.933 0.00192081 149,847 155,296,969 1 0.1 0.000010 20.770 0.933 0.00191887 149,774 155,296,969 1.1 0.1 0.000011 20.770 0.933 0.00191693 149,701 155,296,969 1.2 0.1 0.000012 20.770 0.933 0.00191500 149,628 155,296,969 1.3 0.1 0.000013 20.770 0.933 0.00191306 149,555 155,296,969 1.4 0.1 0.000014 20.770 0.933 0.00191112 149,483 155,296,969 1.5 0.1 0.000015 20.770 0.933 0.00190918 149,410 155,296,969 1.6 0.1 0.000016 20.770 0.933 0.00190724 149,337 155,296,969 1.7 0.1 0.000017 20.770 0.933 0.00190530 149,264 155,296,969 1.8 0.1 0.000018 20.770 0.933 0.00190337 149,191 155,296,969 1.9 0.1 0.000019 20.770 0.933 0.00190143 149,118 155,296,969 2 0.1 0.000020 20.770 0.933 0.00189949 149,045 155,296,969 2.1 0.1 0.000021 20.770 0.933 0.00189755 148,973 155,296,969 2.2 0.1 0.000022 20.770 0.933 0.00189561 148,900 155,296,969 2.3 0.1 0.000023 20.770 0.933 0.00189367 148,827 155,296,969 2.4 0.1 0.000024 20.770 0.933 0.00189174 148,754 155,296,969 2.5 0.1 0.000025 20.770 0.933 0.00188980 148,681 trung bình 0.95 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2009λ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL λ (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 155,296,969 0.950 0.10 0.00001 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 149,810 155,296,969 0.950 1.00 0.00010 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 156,449 155,296,969 0.950 2.00 0.00019 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 163,826 155,296,969 0.950 3.00 0.00029 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 171,203 155,296,969 0.950 4.00 0.00038 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 178,579 155,296,969 0.950 5.00 0.00048 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 185,956 155,296,969 0.950 6.00 0.00057 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 193,332 155,296,969 0.950 7.00 0.00067 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 200,709 155,296,969 0.950 8.00 0.00076 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 208,086 155,296,969 0.950 9.00 0.00086 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 215,462 155,296,969 0.950 10.00 0.00095 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 222,839 155,296,969 0.950 11.00 0.00105 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 230,215 155,296,969 0.950 12.00 0.00114 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 237,592 155,296,969 0.950 13.00 0.00124 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 244,969 155,296,969 0.950 14.00 0.00133 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 252,345 155,296,969 0.950 15.00 0.00143 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 259,722 155,296,969 0.950 16.00 0.00152 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 267,098 155,296,969 0.950 17.00 0.00162 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 274,475 155,296,969 0.950 18.00 0.00171 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 281,852 155,296,969 0.950 19.00 0.00181 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 289,228 155,296,969 0.950 20.00 0.00190 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 296,605 155,296,969 0.950 20.60 0.00196 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 301,005 155,296,969 0.950 21.00 0.00200 20.770 0.933 0.001919841 303,981 trung bình 10.486 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2009Hp Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Hp 199 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.00099619 20.770 0.933 0.00191984 226,425 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 22.000 0.933 0.00203354 235,254 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 23.000 0.933 0.00212597 242,431 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.000 0.933 0.00221841 249,609 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 25.000 0.933 0.00231084 256,786 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 26.000 0.933 0.00240328 263,963 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 27.000 0.933 0.00249571 271,141 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 28.000 0.933 0.00258814 278,318 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 29.000 0.933 0.00268058 285,495 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 30.000 0.933 0.00277301 292,673 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 31.000 0.933 0.00286544 299,850 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 31.161 0.933 0.00288032 301,005 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 33.000 0.933 0.00305031 314,205 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 34.000 0.933 0.00314275 321,382 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 35.000 0.933 0.00323518 328,559 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 36.000 0.933 0.00332761 335,737 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 37.000 0.933 0.00342005 342,914 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 38.000 0.933 0.00351248 350,091 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 39.000 0.933 0.00360491 357,269 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 40.000 0.933 0.00369735 364,446 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 41.000 0.933 0.00378978 371,623 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 42.000 0.933 0.00388222 378,801 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 43.000 0.933 0.00397465 385,978 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 44.000 0.933 0.00406708 393,155 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 45.000 0.933 0.00415952 400,333 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 46.000 0.933 0.00425195 407,510 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 47.000 0.933 0.00434438 414,687 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 48.000 0.933 0.00443682 421,865 trung bình 24.974 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2009Lp Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Lp 200 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.100 0.00024737 96,561 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.200 0.00049474 115,769 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.300 0.00074212 134,977 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.400 0.00098949 154,185 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.500 0.00123686 173,393 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.600 0.00148423 192,601 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.700 0.00173160 211,809 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.800 0.00197897 231,017 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 0.900 0.00222635 250,225 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.000 0.00247372 269,433 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.100 0.00272109 288,641 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.164 0.00288032 301,005 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.200 0.00296846 307,849 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.300 0.00321583 327,057 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.400 0.00346321 346,265 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.500 0.00371058 365,473 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.600 0.00395795 384,681 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.700 0.00420532 403,889 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.800 0.00445269 423,097 155,296,969 0.950 10.486 0.000996189 24.974 1.900 0.00470006 442,305 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2009Ltπ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL (%) (BPM) (BPM) (BPM) (ng) 0.100 96,561 4,850,821 4,947,382 0.989510 154,482,397 0.944 0.200 115,769 4,850,821 4,966,590 0.988519 154,405,487 0.948 0.300 134,977 4,850,821 4,985,798 0.987529 154,328,576 0.951 0.400 154,185 4,850,821 5,005,006 0.986538 154,251,665 0.954 0.500 173,393 4,850,821 5,024,214 0.985548 154,174,754 0.957 0.600 192,601 4,850,821 5,043,422 0.984557 154,097,843 0.960 0.700 211,809 4,850,821 5,062,630 0.983567 154,020,933 0.964 0.800 231,017 4,850,821 5,081,838 0.982576 153,944,022 0.967 0.900 250,225 4,850,821 5,101,046 0.981586 153,867,111 0.970 1.000 269,433 4,850,821 5,120,254 0.980595 153,790,200 0.973 1.100 288,641 4,850,821 5,139,462 0.979605 153,713,289 0.976 1.164 301,005 4,850,821 5,151,826 0.978967 153,663,782 0.978 1.200 307,849 4,850,821 5,158,670 0.978614 153,636,378 0.979 1.300 346,265 4,850,821 5,197,086 0.977624 153,559,468 0.986 1.500 365,473 4,850,821 5,216,294 0.975643 153,405,646 0.989 1.600 384,681 4,850,821 5,235,502 0.974652 153,328,735 0.992 1.700 403,889 4,850,821 5,254,710 0.973662 153,251,824 0.995 1.800 423,097 4,850,821 5,273,918 0.972671 153,174,913 0.998 1.900 442,305 4,850,821 5,293,126 0.971681 153,098,003 1.00 Kết quả ứng dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2009 Ltπ tL1−tN tN ( )ttπλ −− 1)1( 11/ −− tttt LNLN ∧ tN 201 Phụ lục 13: Kết quả vận dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2010 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 165,178,843 0.1 0.1 0.000001 30.154 0.869 0.002618241 216,322 165,178,843 0.2 0.1 0.000002 30.154 0.869 0.002615621 216,188 165,178,843 0.3 0.1 0.000003 30.154 0.869 0.002613 216,054 165,178,843 0.4 0.1 0.000004 30.154 0.869 0.002610379 215,920 165,178,843 0.5 0.1 0.000005 30.154 0.869 0.002607758 215,786 165,178,843 0.6 0.1 0.000006 30.154 0.869 0.002605137 215,652 165,178,843 0.7 0.1 0.000007 30.154 0.869 0.002602516 215,518 165,178,843 0.8 0.1 0.000008 30.154 0.869 0.002599895 215,385 165,178,843 0.9 0.1 0.000009 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 215,251 165,178,843 1 0.1 0.000010 30.154 0.869 0.002594654 215,117 165,178,843 1.1 0.1 0.000011 30.154 0.869 0.002592033 214,983 165,178,843 1.2 0.1 0.000012 30.154 0.869 0.002589412 214,849 165,178,843 1.3 0.1 0.000013 30.154 0.869 0.002586791 214,715 165,178,843 1.4 0.1 0.000014 30.154 0.869 0.00258417 214,581 165,178,843 1.5 0.1 0.000015 30.154 0.869 0.002581549 214,448 165,178,843 1.6 0.1 0.000016 30.154 0.869 0.002578928 214,314 165,178,843 1.7 0.1 0.000017 30.154 0.869 0.002576308 214,180 165,178,843 1.8 0.1 0.000018 30.154 0.869 0.002573687 214,046 165,178,843 1.9 0.1 0.000019 30.154 0.869 0.002571066 213,912 165,178,843 2 0.1 0.000020 30.154 0.869 0.002568445 213,778 165,178,843 2.1 0.1 0.000021 30.154 0.869 0.002565824 213,644 165,178,843 2.2 0.1 0.000022 30.154 0.869 0.002563203 213,510 165,178,843 2.3 0.1 0.000023 30.154 0.869 0.002560582 213,377 165,178,843 2.4 0.1 0.000024 30.154 0.869 0.002557962 213,243 165,178,843 2.5 0.1 0.000025 30.154 0.869 0.002555341 213,109 trung bình 0.9 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2010λ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL λ (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 165,178,843 0.900 0.10 0.000009 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 215,251 165,178,843 0.900 1.00 0.000090 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 221,940 165,178,843 0.900 2.00 0.000180 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 229,373 165,178,843 0.900 3.00 0.000270 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 236,807 165,178,843 0.900 4.00 0.000360 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 244,240 165,178,843 0.900 5.00 0.000450 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 251,673 165,178,843 0.900 6.00 0.000540 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 259,106 165,178,843 0.900 7.00 0.000630 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 266,539 165,178,843 0.900 8.00 0.000720 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 273,972 165,178,843 0.900 9.00 0.000810 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 281,405 165,178,843 0.900 10.00 0.000900 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 288,838 165,178,843 0.900 11.00 0.000990 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 296,271 165,178,843 0.900 12.00 0.001080 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 303,704 165,178,843 0.900 13.00 0.001170 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 311,137 165,178,843 0.900 14.00 0.001260 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 318,570 165,178,843 0.900 15.00 0.001350 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 326,003 165,178,843 0.900 16.00 0.001440 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 333,436 165,178,843 0.900 17.00 0.001530 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 340,869 165,178,843 0.900 18.00 0.001620 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 348,302 165,178,843 0.900 19.00 0.001710 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 355,735 165,178,843 0.900 20.00 0.001800 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 363,168 165,178,843 0.900 21.00 0.001890 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 370,601 165,178,843 0.900 22.00 0.001980 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 378,034 165,178,843 0.900 23.00 0.002070 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 385,468 165,178,843 0.900 24.00 0.002160 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 392,901 165,178,843 0.900 25.00 0.002250 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 400,334 165,178,843 0.900 26.00 0.002340 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 407,767 165,178,843 0.900 27.00 0.002430 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 415,200 165,178,843 0.900 28.00 0.002520 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 422,633 165,178,843 0.900 29.00 0.002610 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 430,066 165,178,843 0.900 29.38 0.002644 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 432,911 165,178,843 0.900 30.00 0.002700 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 437,499 165,178,843 0.900 31.00 0.002790 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 444,932 trung bình 14.983 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2010Hp Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Hp 202 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.00134850 30.154 0.869 0.002597275 325,879 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 31.000 0.869 0.002670143 331,897 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 32.000 0.869 0.002756277 339,011 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 33.000 0.869 0.00284241 346,125 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 34.000 0.869 0.002928544 353,238 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 35.000 0.869 0.003014678 360,352 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 36.000 0.869 0.003100811 367,466 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.000 0.869 0.003186945 374,580 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 38.000 0.869 0.003273079 381,693 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 39.000 0.869 0.003359212 388,807 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 40.000 0.869 0.003445346 395,921 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 41.000 0.869 0.003531479 403,035 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 42.000 0.869 0.003617613 410,148 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 43.000 0.869 0.003703747 417,262 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 44.000 0.869 0.00378988 424,376 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 45.200 0.869 0.003893232 432,911 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 46.000 0.869 0.003962148 438,603 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 46.327 0.869 0.003990322 440,930 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 48.000 0.869 0.004134415 452,831 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 49.000 0.869 0.004220549 459,944 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 50.000 0.869 0.004306682 467,058 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 51.000 0.869 0.004392816 474,172 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 52.000 0.869 0.00447895 481,286 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 53.000 0.869 0.004565083 488,399 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 54.000 0.869 0.004651217 495,513 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 55.000 0.869 0.00473735 502,627 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 56.000 0.869 0.004823484 509,740 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 57.000 0.869 0.004909618 516,854 trung bình 37.522 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2010 Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Lp Lp 203 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.100 0.000371844 142,082 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.200 0.000743688 172,793 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.300 0.001115533 203,503 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.400 0.001487377 234,213 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.500 0.001859221 264,924 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.600 0.002231065 295,634 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.700 0.002602909 326,344 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.800 0.002974754 357,055 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 0.900 0.003346598 387,765 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.000 0.003718442 418,476 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.047 0.003893227 432,911 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.100 0.004090286 449,186 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.200 0.00446213 479,896 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.300 0.004833975 510,607 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.400 0.005205819 541,317 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.500 0.005577663 572,028 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.600 0.005949507 602,738 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.700 0.006321351 633,448 165,178,843 0.900 14.983 0.001348498 37.522 1.800 0.006693196 664,159 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2010Ltπ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL (%) (BPM) (BPM) (BPM) (ng) 0.100 142,082 5,151,826 5,293,908 0.99001 164,353,692 1.099 0.200 172,793 5,151,826 5,324,619 0.98902 164,271,845 1.105 0.300 203,503 5,151,826 5,355,329 0.98803 164,189,999 1.111 0.400 234,213 5,151,826 5,386,039 0.98704 164,108,153 1.117 0.500 264,924 5,151,826 5,416,750 0.98605 164,026,307 1.122 0.600 295,634 5,151,826 5,447,460 0.98505 163,944,461 1.128 0.700 326,344 5,151,826 5,478,170 0.98406 163,862,615 1.134 0.800 357,055 5,151,826 5,508,881 0.98307 163,780,769 1.140 0.900 387,765 5,151,826 5,539,591 0.98208 163,698,923 1.145 1.000 418,476 5,151,826 5,570,302 0.98109 163,617,077 1.151 1.047 432,911 5,151,826 5,584,737 0.98062 163,578,605 1.154 1.100 449,186 5,151,826 5,601,012 0.98010 163,535,230 1.157 1.200 479,896 5,151,826 5,631,722 0.97911 163,453,384 1.163 1.300 510,607 5,151,826 5,662,433 0.97812 163,371,538 1.169 1.400 541,317 5,151,826 5,693,143 0.97713 163,289,692 1.174 1.600 572,028 5,151,826 5,723,854 0.97514 163,126,000 1.179 1.600 602,738 5,151,826 5,754,564 0.97514 163,126,000 1.186 1.700 633,448 5,151,826 5,785,274 0.97415 163,044,154 1.192 1.800 664,159 5,151,826 5,815,985 0.97316 162,962,308 1.197 Kết quả ứng dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2010 Ltπ tL1−tN tN ( )ttπλ −− 1)1( 11/ −− tttt LNLN ∧ tN 204 Phụ lục 15: Kết quả vận dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2011 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,995,817 0.1 0.100 0.000001 29.689 0.862 0.00255548 216,017 168,995,817 0.2 0.100 0.000002 29.689 0.862 0.00255292 215,886 168,995,817 0.3 0.100 0.000003 29.689 0.862 0.00255037 215,754 168,995,817 0.4 0.100 0.000004 29.689 0.862 0.00254781 215,622 168,995,817 0.5 0.100 0.000005 29.689 0.862 0.00254525 215,491 168,995,817 0.6 0.100 0.000006 29.689 0.862 0.00254269 215,359 168,995,817 0.7 0.100 0.000007 29.689 0.862 0.00254013 215,227 168,995,817 0.8 0.100 0.000008 29.689 0.862 0.00253758 215,096 168,995,817 0.9 0.100 0.000009 29.689 0.862 0.00253502 214,964 168,995,817 1 0.100 0.000010 29.689 0.862 0.00253246 214,832 168,995,817 1.1 0.100 0.000011 29.689 0.862 0.00252990 214,701 168,995,817 1.2 0.100 0.000012 29.689 0.862 0.00252734 214,569 168,995,817 1.3 0.100 0.000013 29.689 0.862 0.00252479 214,438 168,995,817 1.4 0.100 0.000014 29.689 0.862 0.00252223 214,306 168,995,817 1.5 0.100 0.000015 29.689 0.862 0.00251967 214,174 168,995,817 1.6 0.100 0.000016 29.689 0.862 0.00251711 214,043 168,995,817 1.7 0.100 0.000017 29.689 0.862 0.00251455 213,911 168,995,817 1.8 0.100 0.000018 29.689 0.862 0.00251199 213,779 168,995,817 1.9 0.100 0.000019 29.689 0.862 0.00250944 213,648 168,995,817 2 0.100 0.000020 29.689 0.862 0.00250688 213,516 168,995,817 2.1 0.100 0.000021 29.689 0.862 0.00250432 213,384 168,995,817 2.2 0.100 0.000022 29.689 0.862 0.00250176 213,253 168,995,817 2.3 0.100 0.000023 29.689 0.862 0.00249920 213,121 168,995,817 2.4 0.100 0.000024 29.689 0.862 0.00249665 212,989 168,995,817 2.5 0.100 0.000025 29.689 0.862 0.00249409 212,858 trung bình 0.9 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2011λ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL λ (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,995,817 0.900 0.10 0.00001 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 214,964 168,995,817 0.900 1.00 0.00009 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 221,808 168,995,817 0.900 2.00 0.00018 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 229,413 168,995,817 0.900 3.00 0.00027 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 237,018 168,995,817 0.900 4.00 0.00036 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 244,623 168,995,817 0.900 5.00 0.00045 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 252,228 168,995,817 0.900 6.00 0.00054 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 259,833 168,995,817 0.900 7.00 0.00063 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 267,437 168,995,817 0.900 8.00 0.00072 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 275,042 168,995,817 0.900 9.00 0.00081 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 282,647 168,995,817 0.900 10.00 0.00090 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 290,252 168,995,817 0.900 11.00 0.00099 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 297,857 168,995,817 0.900 12.00 0.00108 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 305,461 168,995,817 0.900 13.00 0.00117 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 313,066 168,995,817 0.900 14.00 0.00126 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 320,671 168,995,817 0.900 15.00 0.00135 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 328,276 168,995,817 0.900 16.00 0.00144 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 335,881 168,995,817 0.900 17.00 0.00153 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 343,485 168,995,817 0.900 18.00 0.00162 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 351,090 168,995,817 0.900 19.00 0.00171 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 358,695 168,995,817 0.900 20.00 0.00180 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 366,300 168,995,817 0.900 21.00 0.00189 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 373,905 168,995,817 0.900 22.00 0.00198 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 381,510 168,995,817 0.900 23.00 0.00207 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 389,114 168,995,817 0.900 24.00 0.00216 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 396,719 168,995,817 0.900 25.00 0.00225 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 404,324 168,995,817 0.900 26.00 0.00234 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 411,929 168,995,817 0.900 27.00 0.00243 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 419,534 168,995,817 0.900 28.00 0.00252 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 427,138 168,995,817 0.900 28.68 0.00258 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 432,298 168,995,817 0.900 29.00 0.00261 29.689 0.874 0.002570961 437,780 168,995,817 0.900 30.00 0.00270 29.689 0.862 0.002535017 442,348 trung bình 14.493 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2011 Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Hp Hp 205 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 29.689 0.862 0.00253502 324,417 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 31.000 0.862 0.00264699 333,879 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 32.000 0.862 0.00273238 341,094 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 33.000 0.862 0.00281777 348,309 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 34.000 0.862 0.00290315 355,524 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 35.000 0.862 0.00298854 362,739 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 36.000 0.862 0.00307393 369,954 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 37.000 0.862 0.00315932 377,169 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 38.000 0.862 0.00324470 384,384 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 39.000 0.862 0.00333009 391,599 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 40.000 0.862 0.00341548 398,814 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 41.000 0.862 0.00350086 406,029 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 42.000 0.862 0.00358625 413,244 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 43.000 0.862 0.00367164 420,459 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 44.000 0.862 0.00375702 427,674 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 44.641 0.862 0.00381175 432,298 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 45.902 0.862 0.00391946 441,399 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 46.000 0.862 0.00392780 442,104 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 47.000 0.862 0.00401318 449,319 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 48.000 0.862 0.00409857 456,534 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 49.000 0.862 0.00418396 463,749 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 50.000 0.862 0.00426935 470,964 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 51.000 0.862 0.00435473 478,179 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 52.000 0.862 0.00444012 485,394 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 53.000 0.862 0.00452551 492,609 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 54.000 0.862 0.00461089 499,824 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 55.000 0.862 0.00469628 507,039 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304 56.000 0.862 0.00478167 514,254 trung bình 37.458 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2011Lp Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL Lp 206 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.10 0.00037121 141,580 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.20 0.00074242 172,947 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.30 0.00111363 204,313 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.40 0.00148484 235,679 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.50 0.00185605 267,046 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.60 0.00222726 298,412 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.70 0.00259847 329,779 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.80 0.00296968 361,145 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 0.90 0.00334089 392,512 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.00 0.00371210 423,878 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.03 0.00381175 432,298 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.10 0.00408331 455,245 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.20 0.00445452 486,611 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.30 0.00482573 517,977 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.40 0.00519694 549,344 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.50 0.00556815 580,710 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.60 0.00593936 612,077 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.70 0.00631057 643,443 168,995,817 0.900 14.493 0.001304336 37.458 1.80 0.00668177 674,810 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2011 Ltπ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tNL (%) (BPM) (BPM) (BPM) (ng) 0.10 141,580 5,584,737 5,726,317 0.990009 168,151,598 1.054 0.20 172,947 5,584,737 5,757,684 0.989018 168,067,861 1.059 0.30 204,313 5,584,737 5,789,050 0.988027 167,984,123 1.065 0.40 235,679 5,584,737 5,820,416 0.987036 167,900,386 1.070 0.50 267,046 5,584,737 5,851,783 0.986045 167,816,648 1.075 0.60 298,412 5,584,737 5,883,149 0.985054 167,732,911 1.080 0.70 329,779 5,584,737 5,914,516 0.984063 167,649,174 1.085 0.80 361,145 5,584,737 5,945,882 0.983072 167,565,436 1.091 0.90 392,512 5,584,737 5,977,249 0.982081 167,481,699 1.096 1.00 423,878 5,584,737 6,008,615 0.981090 167,397,961 1.101 1.03 432,298 5,584,737 6,017,035 0.980824 167,375,482 1.102 1.10 455,245 5,584,737 6,039,982 0.980099 167,314,224 1.106 1.20 486,611 5,584,737 6,071,348 0.979108 167,230,486 1.111 1.30 517,977 5,584,737 6,102,714 0.978117 167,146,749 1.117 1.40 549,344 5,584,737 6,134,081 0.977126 167,063,012 1.122 1.50 580,710 5,584,737 6,165,447 0.976135 166,979,274 1.127 1.60 612,077 5,584,737 6196814 0.975144 166,895,537 1.132 1.70 643,443 5,584,737 6228180 0.974153 166,811,799 1.137 1.80 674,810 5,584,737 6259547 0.973162 166,728,062 1.142 Kết quả ứng dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2011 Ltπ tL1−tN tN ( )ttπλ −− 1)1( 11/ −− tttt LNLN ∧ tN 207 Phụ lục 16: Kết quả vận dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2012 (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 169,163,803 0.1 0.1 0.000001 29.839 0.874 0.0026049 220,409 169,163,803 0.2 0.1 0.000002 29.839 0.874 0.0026023 220,273 169,163,803 0.3 0.1 0.000003 29.839 0.874 0.0025996 220,137 169,163,803 0.4 0.1 0.000004 29.839 0.874 0.0025970 220,001 169,163,803 0.5 0.1 0.000005 29.839 0.874 0.0025944 219,865 169,163,803 0.6 0.1 0.000006 29.839 0.874 0.0025918 219,729 169,163,803 0.7 0.1 0.000007 29.839 0.874 0.0025892 219,593 169,163,803 0.8 0.1 0.000008 29.839 0.874 0.0025866 219,457 169,163,803 0.9 0.1 0.000009 29.839 0.874 0.0025840 219,321 169,163,803 1 0.1 0.000010 29.839 0.874 0.0025814 219,185 169,163,803 1.1 0.1 0.000011 29.839 0.874 0.0025788 219,049 169,163,803 1.2 0.1 0.000012 29.839 0.874 0.0025762 218,913 169,163,803 1.3 0.1 0.000013 29.839 0.874 0.0025736 218,777 169,163,803 1.4 0.1 0.000014 29.839 0.874 0.0025710 218,641 169,163,803 1.5 0.1 0.000015 29.839 0.874 0.0025684 218,505 169,163,803 1.6 0.1 0.000016 29.839 0.874 0.0025657 218,369 169,163,803 1.7 0.1 0.000017 29.839 0.874 0.0025631 218,233 169,163,803 1.8 0.1 0.000018 29.839 0.874 0.0025605 218,097 169,163,803 1.9 0.1 0.000019 29.839 0.874 0.0025579 217,961 169,163,803 2 0.1 0.000020 29.839 0.874 0.0025553 217,825 169,163,803 2.1 0.1 0.000021 29.839 0.874 0.0025527 217,689 169,163,803 2.2 0.1 0.000022 29.839 0.874 0.0025501 217,553 169,163,803 2.3 0.1 0.000023 29.839 0.874 0.0025475 217,417 169,163,803 2.4 0.1 0.000024 29.839 0.874 0.0025449 217,281 169,163,803 2.5 0.1 0.000025 29.839 0.874 0.0025423 217,145 169,163,803 2.6 0.1 0.000026 29.839 0.874 0.0025397 217,009 trung bình 0.90 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số năm 2012 Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tN λ L λ L (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 169,163,803 0.900 0.10 0.000009 29.839 0.874 0.002584 219,321 169,163,803 0.900 1.00 0.000090 29.839 0.874 0.002584 226,172 169,163,803 0.900 2.00 0.000180 29.839 0.874 0.002584 233,784 169,163,803 0.900 3.00 0.000270 29.839 0.874 0.002584 241,397 169,163,803 0.900 4.00 0.000360 29.839 0.874 0.002584 249,009 169,163,803 0.900 5.00 0.000450 29.839 0.874 0.002584 256,621 169,163,803 0.900 6.00 0.000540 29.839 0.874 0.002584 264,234 169,163,803 0.900 7.00 0.000630 29.839 0.874 0.002584 271,846 169,163,803 0.900 8.00 0.000720 29.839 0.874 0.002584 279,459 169,163,803 0.900 9.00 0.000810 29.839 0.874 0.002584 287,071 169,163,803 0.900 10.00 0.000900 29.839 0.874 0.002584 294,683 169,163,803 0.900 11.00 0.000990 29.839 0.874 0.002584 302,296 169,163,803 0.900 12.00 0.001080 29.839 0.874 0.002584 309,908 169,163,803 0.900 13.00 0.001170 29.839 0.874 0.002584 317,520 169,163,803 0.900 14.00 0.001260 29.839 0.874 0.002584 325,133 169,163,803 0.900 15.00 0.001350 29.839 0.874 0.002584 332,745 169,163,803 0.900 16.00 0.001440 29.839 0.874 0.002584 340,358 169,163,803 0.900 17.00 0.001530 29.839 0.874 0.002584 347,970 169,163,803 0.900 18.00 0.001620 29.839 0.874 0.002584 355,582 169,163,803 0.900 19.00 0.001710 29.839 0.874 0.002584 363,195 169,163,803 0.900 20.00 0.001800 29.839 0.874 0.002584 370,807 169,163,803 0.900 21.00 0.001890 29.839 0.874 0.002584 378,419 169,163,803 0.900 22.00 0.001980 29.839 0.874 0.002584 386,032 169,163,803 0.900 23.00 0.002070 29.839 0.874 0.002584 393,644 169,163,803 0.900 24.00 0.002160 29.839 0.874 0.002584 401,257 169,163,803 0.900 25.00 0.002250 29.839 0.874 0.002584 408,869 169,163,803 0.900 26.00 0.002340 29.839 0.874 0.002584 416,481 169,163,803 0.900 27.00 0.002430 29.839 0.874 0.002584 424,094 169,163,803 0.900 28.00 0.002520 29.839 0.874 0.002584 431,706 169,163,803 0.900 29.00 0.002610 29.839 0.874 0.002584 439,318 169,163,803 0.900 29.23 0.002631 29.839 0.874 0.002584 441,089 169,163,803 0.900 30.50 0.002745 29.839 0.874 0.002584 450,737 trung bình: 14.978 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2012 Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tN Hp 208 L (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 29.839 0.874 0.002584 332,581 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 31.000 0.874 0.0026845 341,084 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 32.000 0.874 0.0027711 348,409 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 33.000 0.874 0.0028577 355,733 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 34.000 0.874 0.0029443 363,058 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 35.000 0.874 0.0030309 370,382 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 36.000 0.874 0.0031175 377,707 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 37.000 0.874 0.0032041 385,031 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 38.000 0.874 0.0032907 392,356 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 39.000 0.874 0.0033773 399,681 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 40.000 0.874 0.0034639 407,005 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 41.000 0.874 0.0035505 414,330 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 42.000 0.874 0.0036371 421,654 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 43.000 0.874 0.0037237 428,979 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 44.000 0.874 0.0038103 436,304 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 44.653 0.874 0.0038669 441,089 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 46.000 0.874 0.0039835 450,953 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 47.000 0.874 0.0040701 458,277 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 48.000 0.874 0.0041567 465,602 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 49.000 0.874 0.0042433 472,927 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 50.000 0.874 0.0043299 480,251 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 51.000 0.874 0.0044165 487,576 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 52.000 0.874 0.0045031 494,900 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 53.000 0.874 0.0045897 502,225 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 54.000 0.874 0.0046763 509,549 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 55.000 0.874 0.0047629 516,874 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 56.000 0.874 0.0048495 524,199 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.00134806 57.000 0.874 0.0049361 531,523 trung bình 37.468 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số tại Mỹ năm 2012 Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tN Lp Lp 209 L (ng) (%) (%) (%) (%) (BPM) 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.100 0.0003713 145,428 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.200 0.0007426 176,834 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.300 0.0011139 208,240 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.400 0.0014852 239,646 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.500 0.0018566 271,052 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.600 0.0022279 302,459 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.700 0.0025992 333,865 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.800 0.0029705 365,271 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 0.900 0.0033418 396,677 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.000 0.0037131 428,083 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.041 0.0038669 441,089 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.100 0.0040844 459,489 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.200 0.0044557 490,896 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.300 0.0048270 522,302 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.400 0.0051983 553,708 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.500 0.0055697 585,114 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.600 0.0059410 616,520 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.700 0.0063123 647,926 169,163,803 0.900 14.978 0.0013481 37.468 1.800 0.0066836 679,333 Biện luận về sự biến động của tham số năm 2012Ltπ Hpλ Lp Ltπλ Hp ( ) LtLp πλ−1 ∧ tN (%) (BPM) (BPM) (BPM) (ng) 0.100 145,428 6,017,035 6,162,463 0.99001 168,318,745 1.030 0.200 176,834 6,017,035 6,193,869 0.98902 168,234,924 1.035 0.300 208,240 6,017,035 6,225,275 0.98803 168,151,103 1.039 0.400 239,646 6,017,035 6,256,681 0.98704 168,067,283 1.044 0.500 271,052 6,017,035 6,288,087 0.98605 167,983,462 1.049 0.600 302,459 6,017,035 6,319,494 0.98505 167,899,641 1.054 0.700 333,865 6,017,035 6,350,900 0.98406 167,815,821 1.058 0.800 365,271 6,017,035 6,382,306 0.98307 167,732,000 1.063 0.900 396,677 6,017,035 6,413,712 0.98208 167,648,179 1.068 1.000 428,083 6,017,035 6,445,118 0.98109 167,564,359 1.072 1.041 441,089 6,017,035 6,458,124 0.98068 167,529,649 1.074 1.100 459,489 6,017,035 6,476,524 0.98010 167,480,538 1.077 1.200 490,896 6,017,035 6,507,931 0.97911 167,396,717 1.082 1.300 522,302 6,017,035 6,539,337 0.97812 167,312,897 1.086 1.400 553,708 6,017,035 6,570,743 0.97713 167,229,076 1.091 1.500 585,114 6,017,035 6,602,149 0.97614 167,145,255 1.096 1.600 616,520 6,017,035 6,633,555 0.97514 167,061,435 1.100 1.700 647,926 6,017,035 6,664,961 0.97415 166,977,614 1.105 1.800 679,333 6,017,035 6,696,368 0.97316 166,893,793 1.110 Kết quả ứng dụng mô hình tại Mỹ năm 2012 Ltπ 1−tN tN ( )ttπλ −− 1)1( tL 11/ −− tttt LNLN ∧ tN 210 Phụ lục 17: Lượng tài trợ cho hoạt động R&D ở một số quốc gia trên thế giới [74][85][90] Nước Năm 2006 Năm 2007 Năm 2008 Năm 2009 Năm 2010 Năm 2011 Năm 2012 Năm 2013 Mỹ 343.00 353.00 365.00 383.60 395.80 412.40 418.60 423.70 Trung Quốc 141.71 174.96 216.82 123.70 141.40 177.30 197.30 220.20 Nhật Bản 136.69 143.50 150.38 139.60 142.00 156.00 159.90 161.80 Đức 63.54 64.61 65.69 68.00 68.20 89.50 90.90 91.10 Pháp 42.14 43.98 45.90 41.10 41.50 49.60 50.40 50.60 Ấn Độ 38.85 41.81 45.00 28.10 33.30 38.40 40.30 45.20 Anh 37.54 40.08 42.82 37.20 37.60 41.40 42.00 42.40 Hàn Quốc 34.73 37.73 41.00 41.40 42.90 53.50 55.80 57.80 Canada 23.06 24.53 26.00 23.20 23.70 27.60 28.80 30.90 Đài Loan 17.91 19.85 22.00 17.60 18.20 20.80 21.40 22.40 Ý 18.59 19.04 19.50 18.70 18.70 24.30 24.10 24.00 Nga 17.33 18.00 18.69 21.80 22.10 35.70 37.00 38.50 Tây Ban Nha 14.12 15.03 16.00 17.30 17.20 20.00 20.00 19.80 Úc 12.97 13.71 14.50 15.00 15.30 20.80 21.80 22.70 Việt Nam 0.57 0.62 0.67 0.71 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 ĐVT: tỷ USD 211 05000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Kiểu dáng CN Tên thương mại Lượng BPM mới Năm Lượng BPM mới Tên thương mại Kiểu dáng CN Tới năm1996 870,023 978,568 86,759 1997 202,420 426,854 21,522 1998 234,818 447,077 22,646 1999 258,469 518,287 24,817 2000 280,456 624,017 26,555 2001 290,467 459,416 21,955 2002 291,639 428,800 21,362 2003 302,779 458,047 38,318 2004 332,233 573,929 58,554 2005 384,136 641,233 67,172 2006 406,859 691,790 73,159 2007 497,920 777,715 76,982 2008 498,602 732,964 77,919 2009 301,005 637,742 66,961 2010 432,911 716,276 81,294 2011 432,298 789,800 83,222 2012 441,089 836,760 85,342 2013 470,450 886,540 88,769 LƯỢNG BẰNG PHÁT MINH MỚI CỦA MỸ 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Kiểu dáng CN Tên thương mại Lượng BPM mới Năm Lượng BPM mớ Tên thương mại Kiểu dáng CN Tới năm 1996 85 15,228 8,215 1997 31 1,645 999 1998 40 1,615 931 1999 63 2,383 899 2000 69 3,487 1,084 2001 86 3,161 813 2002 134 6,931 595 2003 152 9,259 449 2004 212 11,077 686 2005 365 13,381 990 2006 202 16,701 1,156 2007 352 20,168 1,392 2008 334 21,832 1,172 2009 397 23,259 1,566 2010 325 22,159 1,271 2011 321 24,052 1,272 2012 332 25,230 1,298 2013 345 26,120 1,350 LƯỢNG BẰNG PHÁT MINH MỚI CỦA ViỆT NAM Phụ lục 19: Lượng bằng phát minh mới của Mỹ [74][85][90] Phụ lục 18: Lượng bằng phát minh mới của Việt Nam [74][85][90] 212