Kết quả thực nghiệm của tác giả sẽ giúp cho Chính phủ, NHNNVN và các cơ
quan quản lý giám sát ngân hàng có cái nhìn chính xác nguyên nhân ảnh hưởng đến rủi
ro tín dụng của các NHTMVN thời gian qua và qua đó Chính phủ, NHNNVN và các cơ
quan quản lý giám sát ngân hàng có những biện pháp tái cơ cấu hệ thống ngân hàng hiệu
quả nhằm năng cao khả năng phòng ngừa khủng hoảng ngân hàng trong tương lai.
Thứ hai: Qua kết quả nghiên cứu thực nghiệm, tác giả đã có một số gợi ý chính
sách nhằm giúp cho các nhà quản lý, điều hành có những giải pháp ngăn ngừa rủi ro tín
dụng trong tương lai nhằm đảm bảo cho hoạt động của các NHTMVN ổn định và bền
vững
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,538839 11,52647 0,0000
GGDP -307,9663 26,62690 -11,56598 0,0000
ESI -4,730410 1,671456 -2,830113 0,0051
EXI -0,001761 0,037378 -0,047106 0,9625
R-squared 0,403733 Mean dependent var -0,790059
Adjusted R-squared 0,396217 S.D. dependent var 2,444571
S.E. of regression 1,899516 Akaike info criterion 4,137466
Sum squared resid 858,7426 Schwarz criterion 4,195135
Log likelihood -496,6334 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4,160697
F-statistic 53,71669 Durbin-Watson stat 2,094874
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
= ½ RSS = ½ 858,7426>2(0,05,m-1) = 2(0,05,4)= 9,48773 , với df = m-1 = 4. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có
hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa CPI với các biến khác
185
Phụ lục 15. Kiểm định phương sai thay đổi trong mô hình kiểm định các nhân tố đặc trưng hoạt động ngân hàng
15.1. Mô hình LLR2
15.1.1. Kiểm định biến GLOAN
Dependent Variable: PLOAN
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:00
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 566,5301 346,8875 1,633181 0,1033
LOG(SIZE) -24,29061 26,90665 -0,902774 0,3673
ETA 290,9870 481,8078 0,603948 0,5463
IIR -576,9718 1321,091 -0,436739 0,6626
NIM 5919,532 2277,245 2,599427 0,0097
LDR 33,38507 52,59351 0,634775 0,5260
OEXPR -33215,55 1499,166 -22,15602 0,0000
TTML -62,42509 64,27799 -0,971174 0,3321
GPROV 21286,71 9751,595 2,182895 0,0297
R-squared 0,593970 Mean dependent var -19,10115
Adjusted R-squared 0,584872 S.D. dependent var 1020,509
S.E. of regression 657,5183 Akaike info criterion 15,83911
Sum squared resid 1,54E+08 Schwarz criterion 15,93507
Log likelihood -2889,556 Hannan-Quinn criter. 15,87724
F-statistic 65,28077 Durbin-Watson stat 2,399888
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
= ½ RSS = ½ 154.000.000,00>2(0,05,m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919 , với df = m-1 = 9 . Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là
có hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa GLOAN với các biến khác.
15.1.2. Kiểm định biến Log(SIZE)
Dependent Variable: PSIZE
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:02
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 96,68589 165,8342 0,583027 0,5602
GLOAN -52,61529 66,96462 -0,785718 0,4326
ETA -1275,560 636,1252 -2,005203 0,0457
IIR 641,5317 1891,893 0,339095 0,7347
NIM 743,0685 3454,336 0,215112 0,8298
LDR -102,7271 78,72163 -1,304941 0,1928
OEXPR 33283,89 2208,782 15,06889 0,0000
TTML -54,09670 106,1221 -0,509759 0,6105
GPROV -21039,38 13822,24 -1,522140 0,1289
R-squared 0,406453 Mean dependent var 395,4336
Adjusted R-squared 0,393153 S.D. dependent var 1280,385
S.E. of regression 997,4249 Akaike info criterion 16,67251
Sum squared resid 3,55E+08 Schwarz criterion 16,76848
Log likelihood -3042,070 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16,71065
F-statistic 30,55866 Durbin-Watson stat 2,156463
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
= ½ RSS = ½ 355.000.000,00 >2(0,05,m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919 , với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa
là có hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa Log(SIZE) với các biến khác.
187
15.1.3. Kiểm định biến ETA
Dependent Variable: PETA
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:04
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 46,77383 70,91484 0,659577 0,5100
GLOAN 2,443706 10,45820 0,233664 0,8154
LOG(SIZE) -5,776273 5,548044 -1,041137 0,2985
IIR -495,0826 305,1971 -1,622173 0,1056
NIM -3060,278 505,6194 -6,052533 0,0000
LDR -2,368166 12,27412 -0,192940 0,8471
OEXPR 7687,554 351,3195 21,88194 0,0000
TTML 4,281207 16,52468 0,259080 0,7957
GPROV -847,0532 2287,733 -0,370259 0,7114
R-squared 0,599851 Mean dependent var 12,42407
Adjusted R-squared 0,590884 S.D. dependent var 241,0328
S.E. of regression 154,1698 Akaike info criterion 12,93827
Sum squared resid 8485290. Schwarz criterion 13,03424
Log likelihood -2358,703 Hannan-Quinn criter. 12,97640
F-statistic 66,89602 Durbin-Watson stat 2,534550
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
= ½ RSS = ½ 8.485.290.>2(0,05,m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có hiện
tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa ETA với các biến khác.
15.1.4. Kiểm định biến IIR
Dependent Variable: PIIR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:07
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 12,54488 30,26135 0,414551 0,6787
GLOAN -0,550423 4,291581 -0,128256 0,8980
LOG(SIZE) -2,102628 2,469421 -0,851466 0,3951
ETA -84,03193 45,67534 -1,839766 0,0666
NIM 312,2937 216,7743 1,440640 0,1506
LDR -4,535519 5,026083 -0,902396 0,3675
OEXPR 952,6688 143,7755 6,626085 0,0000
TTML 0,532263 6,769842 0,078623 0,9374
GPROV 526,3659 877,3804 0,599929 0,5489
R-squared 0,138057 Mean dependent var 7,138627
Adjusted R-squared 0,118742 S.D. dependent var 67,30342
S.E. of regression 63,18132 Akaike info criterion 11,15418
Sum squared resid 1425101. Schwarz criterion 11,25014
Log likelihood -2032,214 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11,19231
F-statistic 7,147559 Durbin-Watson stat 2,056058
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
= ½ RSS = ½ 1.425.101.>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có hiện
tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa IIR với các biến khác.
189
15.1.5. Kiểm định biến NIM
Dependent Variable: PNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:09
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -41,85524 46,68709 -0,896506 0,3706
GLOAN 2,839733 5,963513 0,476185 0,6342
LOG(SIZE) 0,486136 3,634722 0,133748 0,8937
ETA -64,41822 61,00046 -1,056029 0,2917
IIR 167,8532 174,7494 0,960536 0,3374
LDR -4,457376 7,010464 -0,635818 0,5253
OEXPR 2506,914 198,7044 12,61630 0,0000
TTML 0,426931 9,407252 0,045383 0,9638
GPROV -429,5597 1317,410 -0,326064 0,7446
R-squared 0,323041 Mean dependent var 8,289341
Adjusted R-squared 0,307871 S.D. dependent var 105,5625
S.E. of regression 87,82198 Akaike info criterion 11,81278
Sum squared resid 2753434. Schwarz criterion 11,90875
Log likelihood -2152,739 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11,85092
F-statistic 21,29478 Durbin-Watson stat 2,193108
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
= ½ RSS = ½ 2.753.434>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có hiện
tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa NIM với các biến khác.
15.1.6. Kiểm định biến LDR
Dependent Variable: PLDR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:11
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 40,46146 428,5717 0,094410 0,9248
GLOAN 25,79298 56,37561 0,457520 0,6476
LOG(SIZE) -26,09654 33,90528 -0,769689 0,4420
ETA -271,3241 606,1308 -0,447633 0,6547
IIR -1860,959 1658,457 -1,122102 0,2626
NIM -11846,51 2869,547 -4,128356 0,0000
OEXPR 38606,83 1899,653 20,32310 0,0000
TTML -2,483479 88,87642 -0,027943 0,9777
GPROV 2456,533 12373,64 0,198530 0,8427
R-squared 0,560578 Mean dependent var 54,04793
Adjusted R-squared 0,550731 S.D. dependent var 1238,750
S.E. of regression 830,3035 Akaike info criterion 16,30574
Sum squared resid 2,46E+08 Schwarz criterion 16,40171
Log likelihood -2974,951 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16,34388
F-statistic 56,92884 Durbin-Watson stat 2,427575
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
= ½ RSS = ½ 246.000.000,00>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có
hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa LDR với các biến khác.
191
15.1.7. Kiểm định biến OEXPR
Dependent Variable: POEXPR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:14
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -2482,658 578,0268 -4,295057 0,0000
GLOAN 76,65086 76,76997 0,998449 0,3187
LOG(SIZE) 194,1368 45,44736 4,271684 0,0000
ETA 2010,151 828,8212 2,425313 0,0158
IIR 4580,411 2266,429 2,020981 0,0440
NIM -3711,765 3885,588 -0,955265 0,3401
LDR 93,20710 90,75214 1,027051 0,3051
TTML 46,36122 121,5387 0,381452 0,7031
GPROV -19807,04 16996,09 -1,165388 0,2446
R-squared 0,054472 Mean dependent var -60,70243
Adjusted R-squared 0,033284 S.D. dependent var 1154,035
S.E. of regression 1134,667 Akaike info criterion 16,93035
Sum squared resid 4,60E+08 Schwarz criterion 17,02632
Log likelihood -3089,254 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16,96848
F-statistic 2,570849 Durbin-Watson stat 2,089273
Prob(F-statistic) 0,009737
= ½ RSS = ½ 460.000.000,00 >2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có
hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa OEXPR với các biến khác.
15.1.8. Kiểm định biến TTML
Dependent Variable: PTTML
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:16
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 222,7140 429,9331 0,518020 0,6048
GLOAN -0,919441 50,62379 -0,018162 0,9855
LOG(SIZE) -14,82480 33,58246 -0,441445 0,6592
ETA 196,0508 599,5733 0,326984 0,7439
IIR 290,8529 1641,294 0,177209 0,8594
NIM 1605,252 2829,194 0,567389 0,5708
LDR 4,899833 65,30100 0,075035 0,9402
OEXPR -10817,34 1869,241 -5,787023 0,0000
GPROV 3370,844 12167,43 0,277038 0,7819
R-squared 0,090371 Mean dependent var -31,15300
Adjusted R-squared 0,069987 S.D. dependent var 847,3246
S.E. of regression 817,1359 Akaike info criterion 16,27377
Sum squared resid 2,38E+08 Schwarz criterion 16,36974
Log likelihood -2969,100 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16,31190
F-statistic 4,433467 Durbin-Watson stat 2,059043
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000039
= ½ RSS = ½ 238.000.000,00>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là
có hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa TTML với các biến khác.
193
15.1.9. Kiểm định biến GPROV
Dependent Variable: PGPROV
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:18
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -1,956581 3,161808 -0,618817 0,5364
GLOAN 0,556391 0,413614 1,345194 0,1794
LOG(SIZE) 0,072485 0,235565 0,307705 0,7585
ETA -0,815115 4,470348 -0,182338 0,8554
IIR 2,699925 11,45572 0,235683 0,8138
NIM -10,47728 21,33770 -0,491022 0,6237
LDR 0,229935 0,489618 0,469622 0,6389
OEXPR 29,94180 14,07753 2,126922 0,0341
TTML 0,100605 0,655278 0,153531 0,8781
R-squared 0,018724 Mean dependent var -0,376965
Adjusted R-squared -0,003265 S.D. dependent var 6,159376
S.E. of regression 6,169424 Akaike info criterion 6,501371
Sum squared resid 13588,06 Schwarz criterion 6,597337
Log likelihood -1180,751 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6,539505
F-statistic 0,851507 Durbin-Watson stat 1,987531
Prob(F-statistic) 0,557880
= ½ RSS = ½ 13.588,06>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có
hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa GPROV với các biến khác
15.2. Mô hình SigNIM2
15.2.1. Kiểm định biến GLOAN
Dependent Variable: PLOAN
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:29
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1583,777 885,4689 1,788631 0,0750
LOG(SIZE) -129,0705 70,19940 -1,838627 0,0672
ETA -1891,394 1207,276 -1,566662 0,1186
IIR -361,1332 2661,323 -0,135697 0,8922
NIM 764,6426 4082,248 0,187309 0,8516
LDR -19,29257 81,46668 -0,236815 0,8130
OEXPR 1814,673 9911,488 0,183088 0,8549
TTML 120,2504 136,4284 0,881418 0,3790
GPROV 17553,36 37251,89 0,471207 0,6379
R-squared 0,022982 Mean dependent var 89,42904
Adjusted R-squared -0,010563 S.D. dependent var 939,2830
S.E. of regression 944,2310 Akaike info criterion 16,57510
Sum squared resid 2,08E+08 Schwarz criterion 16,70485
Log likelihood -1996,587 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16,62737
F-statistic 0,685105 Durbin-Watson stat 2,083856
Prob(F-statistic) 0,704508
= ½ RSS = ½ 208.000.000,00>2(0,05,m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919 , với df = m-1 = 9 . Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là
có hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa GLOAN với các biến khác.
195
15.2.2. Kiểm định biến Log(SIZE)
Dependent Variable: PSIZE
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:33
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 231,7738 574,0657 0,403741 0,6868
GLOAN -402,8544 237,4279 -1,696744 0,0911
ETA 20,40916 1658,552 0,012305 0,9902
IIR -1636,209 4677,752 -0,349785 0,7268
NIM 3233,484 7293,457 0,443340 0,6579
LDR -40,44691 143,5825 -0,281698 0,7784
OEXPR 961,2471 17216,50 0,055833 0,9555
TTML -168,7191 239,2533 -0,705191 0,4814
GPROV 2182,800 65530,42 0,033310 0,9735
R-squared 0,019220 Mean dependent var 88,97113
Adjusted R-squared -0,014455 S.D. dependent var 1657,349
S.E. of regression 1669,285 Akaike info criterion 17,71466
Sum squared resid 6,49E+08 Schwarz criterion 17,84441
Log likelihood -2134,474 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17,76693
F-statistic 0,570738 Durbin-Watson stat 2,031950
Prob(F-statistic) 0,801411
= ½ RSS = ½ 649.000.000,00 >2(0,05,m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919 , với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là
có hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa Log(SIZE) với các biến khác.
15.2.3. Kiểm định biến ETA
Dependent Variable: PETA
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:35
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 41,01632 105,1807 0,389960 0,6969
GLOAN -22,65398 19,92689 -1,136855 0,2568
LOG(SIZE) -4,816474 8,094005 -0,595067 0,5524
IIR 362,5859 393,4656 0,921519 0,3577
NIM 289,4483 586,9266 0,493159 0,6224
LDR -0,220592 11,97273 -0,018425 0,9853
OEXPR -969,3396 1381,151 -0,701835 0,4835
TTML -2,431740 20,21086 -0,120319 0,9043
GPROV 779,1768 5510,024 0,141411 0,8877
R-squared 0,012333 Mean dependent var -4,491383
Adjusted R-squared -0,021579 S.D. dependent var 137,9150
S.E. of regression 139,3950 Akaike info criterion 12,74898
Sum squared resid 4527417. Schwarz criterion 12,87874
Log likelihood -1533,627 Hannan-Quinn criter. 12,80125
F-statistic 0,363670 Durbin-Watson stat 2,009152
Prob(F-statistic) 0,938770
= ½ RSS = ½ 4.527.417.>2(0,05,m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có hiện
tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa ETA với các biến khác.
197
15.2.4. Kiểm định biến IIR
Dependent Variable: PIIR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:36
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 19,90805 120,0970 0,165766 0,8685
GLOAN -0,999552 18,72683 -0,053375 0,9575
LOG(SIZE) -1,749202 9,732075 -0,179736 0,8575
ETA 75,96949 167,7415 0,452896 0,6510
NIM -22,71554 558,1252 -0,040700 0,9676
LDR 1,467328 11,09698 0,132228 0,8949
OEXPR -174,7001 1360,897 -0,128371 0,8980
TTML -2,004265 18,61629 -0,107662 0,9144
GPROV -2739,852 5102,972 -0,536913 0,5918
R-squared 0,004899 Mean dependent var -11,94026
Adjusted R-squared -0,029268 S.D. dependent var 127,3932
S.E. of regression 129,2441 Akaike info criterion 12,59776
Sum squared resid 3892039. Schwarz criterion 12,72752
Log likelihood -1515,329 Hannan-Quinn criter. 12,65003
F-statistic 0,143377 Durbin-Watson stat 2,026200
Prob(F-statistic) 0,997032
= ½ RSS = ½ 3.892.039.>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có hiện
tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa IIR với các biến khác.
15.2.5. Kiểm định biến NIM
Dependent Variable: PNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:37
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 3,798758 23,77019 0,159812 0,8732
GLOAN -1,533143 3,564765 -0,430082 0,6675
LOG(SIZE) 0,654732 1,883070 0,347694 0,7284
ETA -7,081050 31,05149 -0,228042 0,8198
IIR -56,23289 69,26223 -0,811884 0,4177
LDR -0,152543 2,144467 -0,071133 0,9434
OEXPR -36,54817 250,7527 -0,145754 0,8842
TTML -1,075426 3,603926 -0,298404 0,7657
GPROV -729,1532 971,3494 -0,750660 0,4536
R-squared 0,011291 Mean dependent var 1,055859
Adjusted R-squared -0,022656 S.D. dependent var 24,58700
S.E. of regression 24,86396 Akaike info criterion 9,301197
Sum squared resid 144044,5 Schwarz criterion 9,430951
Log likelihood -1116,445 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9,353467
F-statistic 0,332599 Durbin-Watson stat 1,995078
Prob(F-statistic) 0,952828
= ½ RSS = ½ 144.044,5>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có hiện
tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa NIM với các biến khác.
199
15.2.6. Kiểm định biến LDR
Dependent Variable: PLDR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:38
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 377,2802 927,8650 0,406611 0,6847
GLOAN -52,23907 141,5288 -0,369106 0,7124
LOG(SIZE) -26,93250 73,75102 -0,365181 0,7153
ETA -326,0324 1260,158 -0,258723 0,7961
IIR 2315,865 2739,701 0,845299 0,3988
NIM -676,7825 4266,312 -0,158634 0,8741
OEXPR 596,3696 10240,92 0,058234 0,9536
TTML -99,25020 141,3124 -0,702346 0,4832
GPROV -18764,83 38517,57 -0,487176 0,6266
R-squared 0,006371 Mean dependent var 1,352995
Adjusted R-squared -0,027746 S.D. dependent var 961,3126
S.E. of regression 974,5574 Akaike info criterion 16,63832
Sum squared resid 2,21E+08 Schwarz criterion 16,76808
Log likelihood -2004,237 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16,69059
F-statistic 0,186731 Durbin-Watson stat 2,011874
Prob(F-statistic) 0,992571
= ½ RSS = ½ 221.000.000,00>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là
có hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa LDR với các biến khác.
15.2.7. Kiểm định biến OEXPR
Dependent Variable: POEXPR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:41
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1,157474 18,60717 0,062206 0,9505
GLOAN 0,405948 2,803972 0,144776 0,8850
LOG(SIZE) 0,251493 1,440063 0,174640 0,8615
ETA -14,52744 23,67245 -0,613686 0,5400
IIR -12,02203 54,71339 -0,219727 0,8263
NIM 42,71646 81,23608 0,525831 0,5995
LDR 0,178506 1,667666 0,107040 0,9148
TTML 0,154332 2,813662 0,054851 0,9563
GPROV -396,6985 766,3380 -0,517655 0,6052
R-squared 0,005015 Mean dependent var 0,629903
Adjusted R-squared -0,029148 S.D. dependent var 19,12347
S.E. of regression 19,40017 Akaike info criterion 8,804922
Sum squared resid 87693,41 Schwarz criterion 8,934675
Log likelihood -1056,396 Hannan-Quinn criter. 8,857191
F-statistic 0,146789 Durbin-Watson stat 2,015869
Prob(F-statistic) 0,996775
= ½ RSS = ½ 87.693,41>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có hiện
tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa OEXPR với các biến khác.
201
15.2.8. Kiểm định biến TTML
Dependent Variable: PTTML
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:42
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 635,2937 394,0064 1,612394 0,1082
GLOAN 104,6896 60,63805 1,726468 0,0856
LOG(SIZE) -46,03017 31,44127 -1,464005 0,1445
ETA -165,3225 544,2424 -0,303766 0,7616
IIR -1146,218 1175,891 -0,974766 0,3307
NIM -1264,027 1834,361 -0,689083 0,4915
LDR -34,33839 36,15399 -0,949782 0,3432
OEXPR 876,4621 4420,562 0,198269 0,8430
GPROV 8506,147 16165,12 0,526204 0,5992
R-squared 0,033925 Mean dependent var 76,71209
Adjusted R-squared 0,000755 S.D. dependent var 419,2880
S.E. of regression 419,1296 Akaike info criterion 14,95072
Sum squared resid 40931014 Schwarz criterion 15,08047
Log likelihood -1800,037 Hannan-Quinn criter. 15,00299
F-statistic 1,022773 Durbin-Watson stat 2,049314
Prob(F-statistic) 0,419467
= ½ RSS = ½ 40.931.014>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có
hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa TTML với các biến khác.
15.2.9. Kiểm định biến GPROV
Dependent Variable: PGPROV
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/31/18 Time: 21:43
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1,659513 3,618752 0,458587 0,6470
GLOAN 0,184033 0,551891 0,333459 0,7391
LOG(SIZE) -0,003557 0,287045 -0,012391 0,9901
ETA 0,813861 4,945677 0,164560 0,8694
IIR -14,74143 10,74389 -1,372076 0,1714
NIM -5,273615 16,47969 -0,320007 0,7492
LDR -0,088973 0,328473 -0,270870 0,7867
OEXPR -26,41599 40,13198 -0,658228 0,5110
TTML 0,154114 0,538820 0,286021 0,7751
R-squared 0,013122 Mean dependent var 0,280622
Adjusted R-squared -0,020762 S.D. dependent var 3,768661
S.E. of regression 3,807582 Akaike info criterion 5,548347
Sum squared resid 3377,960 Schwarz criterion 5,678101
Log likelihood -662,3500 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5,600616
F-statistic 0,387273 Durbin-Watson stat 1,979449
Prob(F-statistic) 0,926788
= ½ RSS = ½ 3.377,96>2(0,05, m-1) = 2(0,05,9)= 16,919, với df = m-1 = 9. Ta bác bỏ giả thiết H0, nghĩa là có
hiện tượng phương sai thay đổi giữa GPROV với các biến khác
203
Phụ lục 16. Kiểm định biến nội sinh trong các mô hình kiểm định các nhân tố vĩ mô
16.1. Mô hình LLR1
16.1.1. Biến GGDP
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 08:49
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
White period standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,013009 0,027796 -0,468009 0,6401
GGDP 0,443084 0,475368 0,932086 0,3519
UGDP -0,604330 0,268308 -2,252375 0,0249
R-squared 0,003022 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared -0,002471 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032307 Akaike info criterion -4,018894
Sum squared resid 0,378882 Schwarz criterion -3,986905
Log likelihood 738,4576 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,006182
F-statistic 0,550102 Durbin-Watson stat 1,031447
Prob(F-statistic) 0,577371
16.1.2. Biến ESI
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 08:53
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
White period standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,016752 0,003259 5,139403 0,0000
ESI -0,017027 0,008184 -2,080687 0,0382
UESI 0,049338 0,014691 3,358417 0,0009
R-squared 0,001508 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared -0,003993 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032332 Akaike info criterion -4,017376
Sum squared resid 0,379457 Schwarz criterion -3,985388
Log likelihood 738,1799 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,004665
F-statistic 0,274095 Durbin-Watson stat 1,032763
Prob(F-statistic) 0,760417
205
16.1.3.Biến EXI
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 08:54
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
White period standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,014877 0,006674 2,229018 0,0264
EXI 0,000103 0,001390 0,074234 0,9409
UEXI -0,000468 0,001071 -0,437322 0,6621
R-squared 0,001234 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared -0,004268 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032336 Akaike info criterion -4,017103
Sum squared resid 0,379561 Schwarz criterion -3,985114
Log likelihood 738,1298 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,004391
F-statistic 0,224337 Durbin-Watson stat 1,031565
Prob(F-statistic) 0,799156
16.1.4. Biến CPI
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 08:55
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
White period standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,016106 0,003554 4,532521 0,0000
CPI -0,009901 0,011138 -0,888973 0,3746
UCPI -0,037656 0,015466 -2,434796 0,0154
R-squared 0,001251 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared -0,004252 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032336 Akaike info criterion -4,017119
Sum squared resid 0,379555 Schwarz criterion -3,985130
Log likelihood 738,1327 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,004407
F-statistic 0,227263 Durbin-Watson stat 1,032375
Prob(F-statistic) 0,796824
207
16.2. Mô hình SigNIM1
16.2.1. Biến GGDP
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:03
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,015949 0,008211 -1,942445 0,0533
GGDP 0,432244 0,139893 3,089817 0,0022
UGDP -0,516932 0,162075 -3,189459 0,0016
R-squared 0,042536 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,034524 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005354 Akaike info criterion -7,609596
Sum squared resid 0,006851 Schwarz criterion -7,566344
Log likelihood 923,7611 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,592173
F-statistic 5,308853 Durbin-Watson stat 0,953159
Prob(F-statistic) 0,005548
16.2.2. Biến ESI
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:05
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,008488 0,000582 14,57768 0,0000
ESI 0,009369 0,004825 1,941544 0,0534
UESI 0,025106 0,014526 1,728298 0,0852
R-squared 0,040548 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,032519 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005360 Akaike info criterion -7,607521
Sum squared resid 0,006865 Schwarz criterion -7,564270
Log likelihood 923,5101 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,590098
F-statistic 5,050227 Durbin-Watson stat 0,991943
Prob(F-statistic) 0,007109
209
16.2.3. EXI
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:06
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,007573 0,001001 7,568460 0,0000
EXI 0,000450 0,000232 1,943089 0,0532
UEXI -0,000174 0,000255 -0,683434 0,4950
R-squared 0,042622 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,034610 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005354 Akaike info criterion -7,609685
Sum squared resid 0,006851 Schwarz criterion -7,566434
Log likelihood 923,7719 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,592262
F-statistic 5,320029 Durbin-Watson stat 0,913565
Prob(F-statistic) 0,005489
16.3.4. Biến CPI
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:07
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,008041 0,000630 12,77068 0,0000
CPI 0,013609 0,005282 2,576484 0,0106
UCPI -0,043659 0,016037 -2,722435 0,0070
R-squared 0,042379 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,034365 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005355 Akaike info criterion -7,609432
Sum squared resid 0,006852 Schwarz criterion -7,566181
Log likelihood 923,7413 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,592009
F-statistic 5,288401 Durbin-Watson stat 0,991368
Prob(F-statistic) 0,005658
211
Phụ lục 17. Kiểm định biến nội sinh trong các mô hình kiểm định các nhân tố đặc trưng hoạt động ngân hàng
17.1. Mô hình LLR2
17.1.1. Biến GLOAN
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:13
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,012772 0,002526 5,056534 0,0000
GLOAN 0,005201 0,004059 1,281126 0,2010
ULOAN -0,008532 0,004611 -1,850455 0,0651
R-squared 0,010800 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,005350 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032181 Akaike info criterion -4,026726
Sum squared resid 0,375926 Schwarz criterion -3,994738
Log likelihood 739,8909 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,014015
F-statistic 1,981627 Durbin-Watson stat 1,011124
Prob(F-statistic) 0,139333
17.1.2. Biến Log(SIZE)
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:14
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,007931 0,013957 -0,568201 0,5702
LOG(SIZE) 0,002226 0,001335 1,668334 0,0961
USIZE -0,004977 0,001882 -2,644854 0,0085
R-squared 0,019135 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,013731 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032045 Akaike info criterion -4,035188
Sum squared resid 0,372758 Schwarz criterion -4,003200
Log likelihood 741,4395 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,022477
F-statistic 3,540845 Durbin-Watson stat 1,014874
Prob(F-statistic) 0,029994
213
17.1.3. Biến ETA
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:14
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,011782 0,003817 3,086694 0,0022
ETA 0,028845 0,029040 0,993316 0,3212
UETA -0,071799 0,037422 -1,918655 0,0558
R-squared 0,011703 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,006258 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032166 Akaike info criterion -4,027640
Sum squared resid 0,375583 Schwarz criterion -3,995651
Log likelihood 740,0581 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,014928
F-statistic 2,149305 Durbin-Watson stat 1,036070
Prob(F-statistic) 0,118046
17.1.4. Biến IIR
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:15
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,035941 0,006581 -5,461080 0,0000
IIR 0,932488 0,116616 7,996206 0,0000
UIIR -0,905358 0,131116 -6,905012 0,0000
R-squared 0,150170 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,145488 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,029828 Akaike info criterion -4,178586
Sum squared resid 0,322961 Schwarz criterion -4,146598
Log likelihood 767,6813 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,165875
F-statistic 32,07211 Durbin-Watson stat 1,234782
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
215
17.1.5. Biến NIM
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:16
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,002121 0,007090 0,299163 0,7650
NIM 0,434523 0,229072 1,896888 0,0586
UNIM -0,511905 0,254757 -2,009389 0,0452
R-squared 0,011115 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,005666 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032176 Akaike info criterion -4,027044
Sum squared resid 0,375806 Schwarz criterion -3,995056
Log likelihood 739,9491 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,014333
F-statistic 2,040015 Durbin-Watson stat 1,060412
Prob(F-statistic) 0,131515
17.1.6. Biến LDR
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:16
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,000605 0,007350 0,082307 0,9344
LDR 0,015180 0,007449 2,037892 0,0423
ULDR -0,013651 0,007881 -1,732164 0,0841
R-squared 0,012261 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,006819 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,032157 Akaike info criterion -4,028204
Sum squared resid 0,375371 Schwarz criterion -3,996216
Log likelihood 740,1614 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,015493
F-statistic 2,253025 Durbin-Watson stat 1,009999
Prob(F-statistic) 0,106548
217
17.1.7. Biến OEXPR
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:17
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,004892 0,004250 1,151094 0,2505
OEXPR 0,529925 0,203731 2,601107 0,0097
UOEXPR 0,012418 0,214701 0,057838 0,9539
R-squared 0,163296 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,158686 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,029597 Akaike info criterion -4,194153
Sum squared resid 0,317973 Schwarz criterion -4,162164
Log likelihood 770,5299 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,181441
F-statistic 35,42264 Durbin-Watson stat 1,512132
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
17.1.8. Biến TTML
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:18
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,022329 0,002423 9,215296 0,0000
TTML -0,024467 0,006068 -4,032238 0,0001
UTTML 0,027119 0,006951 3,901581 0,0001
R-squared 0,044412 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,039147 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,031629 Akaike info criterion -4,061296
Sum squared resid 0,363152 Schwarz criterion -4,029307
Log likelihood 746,2171 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,048584
F-statistic 8,435408 Durbin-Watson stat 1,012004
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000263
219
17.1.9. Biến GPROV
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:18
Sample: 2004 2015
Periods included: 12
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 366
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,001112 0,004076 -0,272797 0,7852
GPROV 2,957198 0,692364 4,271161 0,0000
UGPROV 1,647779 0,805504 2,045649 0,0415
R-squared 0,283138 Mean dependent var 0,015186
Adjusted R-squared 0,279189 S.D. dependent var 0,032267
S.E. of regression 0,027395 Akaike info criterion -4,348740
Sum squared resid 0,272429 Schwarz criterion -4,316751
Log likelihood 798,8194 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4,336028
F-statistic 71,68688 Durbin-Watson stat 1,458892
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
17.2. Mô hình SigNIM2
17.2.1. Biến GLOAN
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:20
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,009764 0,000740 13,20036 0,0000
GLOAN -0,001270 0,002262 -0,561416 0,5750
ULOAN 0,001525 0,002397 0,636019 0,5254
R-squared 0,001747 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared -0,006607 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005467 Akaike info criterion -7,567877
Sum squared resid 0,007143 Schwarz criterion -7,524626
Log likelihood 918,7131 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,550454
F-statistic 0,209090 Durbin-Watson stat 0,902807
Prob(F-statistic) 0,811471
221
17.2.2. Biến Log(SIZE)
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:21
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,035108 0,004189 8,381515 0,0000
LOG(SIZE) -0,002313 0,000376 -6,156441 0,0000
USIZE 0,002456 0,000539 4,560647 0,0000
R-squared 0,137305 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,130086 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005082 Akaike info criterion -7,713823
Sum squared resid 0,006173 Schwarz criterion -7,670572
Log likelihood 936,3726 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,696400
F-statistic 19,01941 Durbin-Watson stat 1,068107
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
17.2.3. Biến ETA
Dependent Variable: SIGNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:22
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,004011 0,000626 6,405333 0,0000
ETA 0,047494 0,004886 9,721013 0,0000
UETA -0,025236 0,007654 -3,297038 0,0011
R-squared 0,312763 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,307012 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,004536 Akaike info criterion -7,941204
Sum squared resid 0,004918 Schwarz criterion -7,897953
Log likelihood 963,8857 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,923781
F-statistic 54,38461 Durbin-Watson stat 1,245828
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
223
17.2.4. Biến IIR
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:23
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,000120 0,002486 -0,048172 0,9616
IIR 0,177220 0,045843 3,865807 0,0001
UIIR -0,158749 0,048219 -3,292239 0,0011
R-squared 0,064472 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,056643 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005292 Akaike info criterion -7,632773
Sum squared resid 0,006694 Schwarz criterion -7,589522
Log likelihood 926,5655 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,615350
F-statistic 8,235367 Durbin-Watson stat 0,910990
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000348
17.2.5. Biến NIM
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:23
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,000371 0,000809 -0,457998 0,6474
NIM 0,334768 0,026242 12,75677 0,0000
UNIM -0,234414 0,031705 -7,393641 0,0000
R-squared 0,448740 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,444126 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,004063 Akaike info criterion -8,161677
Sum squared resid 0,003945 Schwarz criterion -8,118425
Log likelihood 990,5629 Hannan-Quinn criter. -8,144253
F-statistic 97,27592 Durbin-Watson stat 1,324057
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
225
17.2.6. Biến LDR
Dependent Variable: SIGNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:24
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,000835 0,001401 -0,595810 0,5519
LDR 0,011180 0,001491 7,499955 0,0000
ULDR -0,011233 0,001550 -7,247104 0,0000
R-squared 0,190557 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,183784 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,004923 Akaike info criterion -7,777538
Sum squared resid 0,005792 Schwarz criterion -7,734287
Log likelihood 944,0821 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,760115
F-statistic 28,13246 Durbin-Watson stat 1,146933
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
17.2.7. Biến OEXPR
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:25
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,005132 0,001242 -4,133754 0,0000
OEXPR 0,790749 0,065910 11,99737 0,0000
UOEXPR -0,622454 0,079680 -7,811928 0,0000
R-squared 0,398084 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,393047 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,004245 Akaike info criterion -8,073765
Sum squared resid 0,004307 Schwarz criterion -8,030514
Log likelihood 979,9256 Hannan-Quinn criter. -8,056342
F-statistic 79,03254 Durbin-Watson stat 1,364712
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
227
17.2.8. Biến TTML
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:26
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0,009215 0,000511 18,03653 0,0000
TTML 0,001017 0,002051 0,496063 0,6203
UTTML -0,001684 0,002199 -0,765862 0,4445
R-squared 0,003976 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared -0,004359 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005461 Akaike info criterion -7,570113
Sum squared resid 0,007127 Schwarz criterion -7,526861
Log likelihood 918,9836 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,552690
F-statistic 0,477036 Durbin-Watson stat 0,897244
Prob(F-statistic) 0,621210
17.2.9. Biến GPROV
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 02/01/18 Time: 09:26
Sample: 2008 2015
Periods included: 8
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 242
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0,002020 0,003991 -0,506173 0,6132
GPROV 1,753235 0,610460 2,871990 0,0044
UGPROV -1,734028 0,646437 -2,682440 0,0078
R-squared 0,033392 Mean dependent var 0,009399
Adjusted R-squared 0,025304 S.D. dependent var 0,005449
S.E. of regression 0,005380 Akaike info criterion -7,600091
Sum squared resid 0,006917 Schwarz criterion -7,556840
Log likelihood 922,6111 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7,582668
F-statistic 4,128241 Durbin-Watson stat 0,896234
Prob(F-statistic) 0,017274
229
Phụ lục 18. Kết quả ước lượng các mô hình kiểm định các nhân tố vĩ mô
18.1. Kết quả ước lượng mô hình LLR1
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Generalized Method of Moments
Transformation: First Differences
Sample (adjusted): 2006 2015
Periods included: 10
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 304
White period instrument weighting matrix
Instrument specification: @DYN(LLR,-2) GGDP ESI CPI
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LLR(-1) 0,366160 0,000267 1372,600 0,0000
GGDP 0,190704 0,006974 27,34472 0,0000
ESI -0,033201 0,000872 -38,05361 0,0000
EXI -0,000322 7,29E-06 -44,20262 0,0000
CPI 0,033313 0,000703 47,37028 0,0000
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (first differences)
Mean dependent var 3,38E-05 S.D. dependent var 0,032094
S.E. of regression 0,036160 Sum squared resid 0,390957
J-statistic 30,54291 Instrument rank 32
Prob(J-statistic) 0,290319
Arellano-Bond Serial
Correlation Test
Sample: 2004 2015
Included observations:
304
Test order m-Statistic rho SE(rho) Prob.
AR(1) -1,016635 -0,178310 0,175393 0,309300
AR(2) 1,029355 0,013691 0,013300 0,303300
231
18.2. Kết quả ước lượng mô hình SigNIM1
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Generalized Method of Moments
Transformation: First Differences
Sample (adjusted): 2010 2015
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 180
Difference specification instrument weighting matrix
White period standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
Instrument specification: @DYN(SIGNIM,-2) GDP ESI CPI
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
SIGNIM(-1) 0,366105 0,121125 3,022533 0,0029
GGDP 0,003922 0,080407 0,048778 0,9612
ESI -0,011402 0,016013 -0,712035 0,4774
EXI -0,000224 0,000129 -1,734018 0,0847
CPI 0,001279 0,024526 0,052160 0,9585
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (first differences)
Mean dependent var -0,000275 S.D. dependent var 0,005111
S.E. of regression 0,005852 Sum squared resid 0,005994
J-statistic 9,756071 Instrument rank 25
Prob(J-statistic) 0,972382
Arellano-Bond Serial
Correlation Test
Sample: 2008 2015
Included observations:
180
Test order m-Statistic rho SE(rho) Prob.
AR(1) -5,598125 -0,002505 0,000447 0,000000
AR(2) -0,328035 -0,000166 0,000505 0,742900
233
Phụ lục 19. Kết quả ước lượng các mô hình kiểm định các nhân tố đặc trưng hoạt động ngân hàng
19.1. Kết quả ước lượng mô hình LLR2
Dependent Variable: LLR
Method: Panel Generalized Method of Moments
Transformation: First Differences
Sample (adjusted): 2006 2015
Periods included: 10
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 304
White period instrument weighting matrix
White period standard errors & covariance (no d.f. correction)
Instrument specification: @DYN(LLR,-2) @DYN(IIR,-2) GLOAN LOG(SIZE)
ETA IIR NIM LDR TTML GPROV
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LLR(-1) -0,577836 0,163998 -3,523421 0,0005
GLOAN -0,002450 0,000789 -3,106016 0,0021
LOG(SIZE) -0,012350 0,002774 -4,452435 0,0000
ETA -0,064805 0,033708 -1,922556 0,0555
IIR 0,012581 0,049076 0,256350 0,7979
NIM -0,067638 0,293766 -0,230244 0,8181
LDR 0,000125 0,000741 0,169387 0,8656
OEXPR 0,691901 0,257333 2,688741 0,0076
TTML 0,007853 0,003859 2,034849 0,0428
GPROV -10,15695 1,370710 -7,409987 0,0000
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (first differences)
Mean dependent var 3,38E-05 S.D. dependent var 0,032094
S.E. of regression 0,033382 Sum squared resid 0,327625
J-statistic 20,35324 Instrument rank 31
Prob(J-statistic) 0,498996
Arellano-Bond Serial
Correlation Test
Sample: 2004 2015
Included observations:
304
Test order m-Statistic rho SE(rho) Prob.
AR(1) -0,283145 -0,171993 0,607439 0,777100
AR(2) 0,194174 0,027779 0,143063 0,846000
235
19.2. Kết quả ước lượng mô hình SigNIM2
Dependent Variable: SigNIM
Method: Panel Generalized Method of Moments
Transformation: First Differences
Sample (adjusted): 2010 2015
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 31
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 180
White period instrument weighting matrix
White period standard errors & covariance (no d.f. correction)
Instrument specification: @DYN(SIGNIM,-2) LOG(SIZE) ETA IIR NIM
LDR OEXPR GPROV
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
SIGNIM(-1) 0,337205 0,025124 13,42174 0,0000
GLOAN -0,003470 0,000275 -12,61670 0,0000
LOG(SIZE) -0,002840 0,000503 -5,644258 0,0000
ETA -0,015956 0,004004 -3,984759 0,0001
IIR 0,034234 0,007707 4,442210 0,0000
NIM 0,097157 0,012281 7,911178 0,0000
LDR -0,000274 0,000287 -0,954434 0,3412
OEXPR 0,100037 0,031928 3,133160 0,0020
TTML 0,002978 0,000735 4,049302 0,0001
GPROV -0,354388 0,104144 -3,402874 0,0008
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (first differences)
Mean dependent var -0,000275 S.D. dependent var 0,005111
S.E. of regression 0,005541 Sum squared resid 0,005220
J-statistic 25,25390 Instrument rank 30
Prob(J-statistic) 0,191890
Arellano-Bond Serial
Correlation Test
Sample: 2008 2015
Included observations:
180
Test order m-Statistic rho SE(rho) Prob.
AR(1) -2,182936 -0,002088 0,000956 0,029000
AR(2) -0,252121 -9,90E-05 0,000393 0,800900
237
Phụ lục 20. Cơ cấu, tăng trưởng GDP giai đoạn 2005 - 2015
20.1. Cơ cấu GDP giai đoạn 2004 - 2015 (ĐVT: %)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tổng số 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Trong đó
- Nông, lâm nghiệp và thủy sản 21,76 19,3 18,73 18,66 20,42 19,17 18,38 19,57 19,22 17,96 17,7 17
- Công nghiệp chế biến, chế tạo 20,32 18,83 19,38 19,39 18,59 18,3 12,95 13,35 13,28 13,34 13,18 13,69
- Xây dựng và KD BĐS 10,63 12,55 12,72 13,07 12,29 12,47 12,25 11,48 10,88 10,44 10,24 10,52
Nguồn: Tổng cục thống kê
20.2. Tăng trưởng GDP theo giá so sánh 2010 (ĐVT: %)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP 7,69 7,55 6,98 7,13 5,66 5,4 6,42 6,24 5,25 5,42 5,98 6,68
Trong đó
- Nông, lâm nghiệp và thủy sản 3,5 4,19 3,8 3,96 4,69 1,91 3,29 4,23 2,92 2,63 3,44 2,41
- Công nghiệp chế biến, chế tạo 10,12 12,92 13,36 12,37 9,78 2,76 8,38 14,08 9,05 7,22 7,22 10,6
- Xây dựng và KD BĐS 7,5 8,23 8,87 8,45 2,56 7,67 2,93 1,76 2,47 4 4,89 702
Nguồn: Tổng cục thống kê
20.3. Tỷ lệ lạm phát, chỉ số tăng trưởng giá nhà ở và tỷ giá USD (ĐVT: %)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tỷ lệ lạm phát 7,71 8,29 7,48 8,3 22,97 6,88 9,19 18,58 9,21 6,6 4,09 0,63
Chỉ số tăng giảm giá nhà ở 6,43 7,05 8,09 11,02 20,51 3,46 14,68 19,66 10,64 4,72 3,74 -1,62
Chỉ số tăng giảm tỷ giá 1,57 0,56 0,95 0,62 2,35 9,17 7,63 8,47 0,18 0,66 0,56 3,16
Nguồn: Tổng cục thống kê