Luận án Phát triển thị trường chứng khoán và tăng trưởng kinh tế: Vai trò độ mở thương mại và kiểm soát tham nhũng tại các nước đang phát triển

doanh nghiệp. Bên cạnh đó, ở Việt Nam, việc công khai số điện thoại đường dây nóng, thực hiện thu nộp thuế hải quan qua hệ thống ngân hàng, quy trình và thủ tục hải quan thực hiện tự động hóa 100% trên cả nước kể từ năm 2018 là những giải pháp cụ thể nhằm hạn 12 bangladesh_t114c52n139094 132 chế tình trạng tham nhũng ở khâu xuất nhập khẩu hàng hóa13. Tuy nhiên, đặc thù công việc của cán bộ công chức hải quan là “gác cửa nền kinh tế”, luôn tiếp xúc với mặt trái của cơ chế thị trường nên rủi ro sai phạm cao. Có không ít đối tượng đã tìm cách mua chuộc, câu móc cán bộ công chức để gian lận thương mại, buôn lậu và vận chuyển hàng quốc cấm8. Vì vậy cần có sự luân chuyển cán bộ công chức và có những hình thức xử lý nặng (như đuổi việc và ghi nhận vào hồ sơ cá nhân) để mang tính răn đe cao cho những cán bộ làm việc ở lĩnh vực nhạy cảm này. Thay vào đó, cơ chế tiền lương, tiền thưởng của cán bộ công chức ngành hải quan phải thực sự hấp dẫn để phát huy hết trách nhiệm của cán bộ hải quan. Việc nâng cao ý thức và tinh thần trách nhiệm của doanh nghiệp tham gia hoạt động xuất nhập khẩu cũng là một công cụ phòng chống tham nhũng hữu hiệu. Chính phủ nên đưa ra những chính sách thưởng phạt thích đáng trong công tác phòng chống tham nhũng ở khâu xuất nhập khẩu hàng hóa thì sẽ giúp doanh nghiệp phát huy được quyền lợi của mình đồng thời góp phần cho chính phủ hạn chế tham nhũng. Chẳng hạn, khi doanh nghiệp cung cấp bằng chứng chứng minh sự nhũng nhiễu của cán bộ hải quan, hay hành vi gây khó dễ kéo dài thời gian xuất nhập khẩu của doanh nghiệp, hay hành vi nhận hối lộ của hải quan thì doanh nghiệp được thưởng bằng tiền ở một mức thỏa đáng. Việc phát huy vai trò chủ động của doanh nghiệp cũng là một kênh giám sát hiệu quả góp phần KSTN. Tuy nhiên, việc doanh nghiệp mua chuộc cán bộ hải quan để nhập khẩu hàng quốc cấm thì tuyệt đối xử lý nặng cho cả doanh nghiệp và cán bộ hải quan thì mới hạn chế thấp thiệt hại cho nền kinh tế của quốc gia. 5.3. HẠN CHẾ VÀ HƯỚNG MỞ RỘNG NGHIÊN CỨU TRONG TƯƠNG LAI Hạn chế của luận án là số quốc gia đang phát triển có số liệu về TTCK còn khiêm tốn, mẫu nghiên cứu có 36 quốc gia. Trong tương lai, khi có nhiều quốc gia đang phát triển có TTCK sẽ bổ sung thêm vào mẫu nghiên cứu. Với số quan sát nhiều hơn, kết quả ước lượng mang tính đại diện cho tổng thể tốt hơn. 13 chong-tieu-cuc-trong-nganh-hai-quan-58595.aspx 133 Số liệu của ngân hàng thế giới về TTCK chỉ cung cấp giá trị vốn hóa thị trường các cổ phiếu của công ty cổ phần nội địa, còn thiếu phần giá trị trái phiếu của doanh nghiệp. Vì vậy các phân tích về phát triển TTCK là hàm ý về nguồn vốn chủ sở hữu đầu tư vào doanh nghiệp (công ty cổ phần có niêm yết), chưa phản ánh đủ giá trị vốn hóa của các chứng khoán trên thị trường. Bên cạnh đó, trong khoảng thời gian nghiên cứu thì thị trường tín dụng hoạt động chưa hiệu quả do khủng hoảng tài chính và bùng nổ thị trường bất động sản, tuổi đời của TTCK thì còn quá non trẻ nên cũng gặp hạn chế về hiệu quả hoạt động. Trong tương lai, việc bổ sung thêm mẫu nghiên cứu với số quốc gia nhiều hơn, ngoài thang đo về phát triển TTCK thể hiện qua quy mô sẽ bổ sung thêm thang đo đánh giá về hiệu quả hoạt động của TTCK sẽ giúp cho nghiên cứu xác định cụ thể hơn nguyên nhân của tác động TTCK đến tăng trưởng kinh tế. Ngoài ra, với chiến dịch phòng chống tham nhũng đang được triển khai rầm rộ tại các nước, nếu được xem xét ở một thời điểm xa hơn trong tương lai, chẳng hạn dữ liệu đến năm 2020 thì khi đó kết quả tác động của KSTN sẽ mạnh mẽ hơn. Có thể các tương tác của KSTN với TTCK hay ĐMTM sẽ theo một chiều hướng tích cực. 134 DANH MỤC CÁC CÔNG TRÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU ĐÃ CÔNG BỐ Đề tài nghiên cứu khoa học: Chủ nhiệm đề tài nghiên cứu khoa học cấp trường: “Độ mở thương mại, phát triển thị trường chứng khoán và tăng trưởng Kinh tế tại các nước đang phát triển”, Đại Học Văn Lang. Quyết định giao đề tài: 75/QĐ-ĐHVL, ngày 26/01/2019. Quyết định nghiệm thu đề tài số: 281/QĐ- ĐHVL ngày 25/04/2019 và Biên bản nghiệm thu ngày 21/01/2019. Chủ nhiệm đề tài nghiên cứu khoa học cấp trường: “Phát triển thị trường chứng khoán, tăng trưởng kinh tế: vai trò kiểm soát tham nhũng tại các quốc gia đang phát triển”, Đại Học Kinh tế TP. HCM. Quyết định giao đề tài nghiên cứu khoa học cấp trường – Đợt 2 năm 2018. Mã số NCS–2018–18. Nghiệm thu tháng 1/2020. Các bài báo: Phạm Thị Hồng Vân (2019). Độ mở thương mại, phát triển thị trường chứng khoán và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các nước đang phát triển. 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IRN Pakistan PAK United Arab Emirates ARE Jordan JOR Panama PAN Vietnam VNM 162 Phụ lục 2: Kiểm định hiện tượng tự tương quan Mô hình (3.11) Mô hình (3.12) Mô hình (3.13) 163 Phụ lục 3: Kiểm định phương sai thay đổi Mô hình (3.11) Mô hình (3.12) Mô hình (3.13) 164 Phụ lục 4: Thống kê mô tả các biến 165 Phụ lục 5: Hệ số tương quan giữa các biến Phụ lục 6: Nhân tử phóng đại phương sai của các biến độc lập 166 Phụ lục 7: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.4 - Cột M1 Mô hình (3.9) 167 Phụ lục 8: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.4 - Cột M2 Mô hình (3.10) 168 Phụ lục 9: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.5 - Cột M3 Mô hình (3.10*) theo thang đo kiểm soát tham nhũng 169 Phụ lục 10: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.4 - Cột M4 Mô hình (3.11) theo thang đo kiểm soát tham nhũng 170 Phụ lục 11: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.6 - Cột M4 Mô hình (3.11) theo thang đo kiểm soát tham nhũng 171 Phụ lục 12: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.6 - Cột M5 Mô hình (3.11) theo thang đo cảm nhận tham nhũng 172 Phụ lục 13: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.7 - Cột M6 Mô hình (3.10*) theo thang đo cảm nhận tham nhũng 173 Phụ lục 14: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.8 - Cột M7 Mô hình (3.10**) theo thang đo kiểm soát tham nhũng 174 Phụ lục 15: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.8 - Cột M8 Mô hình (3.12) theo thang đo kiểm soát tham nhũng 175 Phụ lục 16: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.9 - Cột M9 Mô hình (3.12) theo thang đo cảm nhận tham nhũng 176 Phụ lục 17: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.10 - Cột M10 Mô hình (3.10**) theo thang đo cảm nhận tham nhũng 177 Phụ lục 18: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.11 - Cột M11 Mô hình (3.13) theo thang đo kiểm soát tham nhũng 178 Phụ lục 19: Kết quả hồi quy theo bảng 4.12 - Cột M12 Mô hình (3.13) theo thang đo cảm nhận tham nhũng