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Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Vol. 51(3), pp. 635-652, April 2004. 198 PHỤ LỤC Phụ lục 1: Công cụ và mục tiêu CSTT của một số NHTW trên thế giới NHTW các nước Công cụ CSTT Mục tiêu hoạt động Mục tiêu trung gian Mục tiêu cuối cùng NHTW Anh (BOE) - NVTTM - DTBB - LSCB chính thức (Official Interest Rate) - LPMT quanh mức 2% - Ổn định giá cả - Hỗ trợ TTKT và việc làm - Ổn định hệ thống tài chính (từ sau 2008) NHTW Châu Âu (ECB) - NVTTM - Chính sách chiết khấu - DTBB - LSTCV - Lãi suất tiền gửi ký gửi qua đêm khu vực đồng Euro. - Lạm phát gần hoặc thấp hơn mức 2% - Ổn định giá cả - Ổn định hệ thống tài chính (từ sau 2008) NHTW Mỹ (Fed) - NVTTM - Chính sách chiết khấu - DTBB - TGHĐ - Lãi suất liên bang (Federal funds rate: FFR) - LSTCK - Lạm phát quanh mức 2% - Tối đa việc làm - Ổn định giá cả - Lãi suất dài hạn vừa phải - Ổn định hệ thống tài chính (từ sau 2008) NHTW Úc (RBA) - NVTTM - Chính sách chiết khấu - DTBB - Lãi suất cho vay LNH - LPMT 2- 3% - Ổn định giá trị đồng tiền - Duy trì việc làm đầy đủ - TTKT NHTW Nhật Bản (BOJ) - NVTTM - Chính sách chiết khấu - DTBB - Lãi suất cho vay qua đêm không đảm bảo (không thế chấp) - Lãi suất - Ổn định giá cả (lạm phát 2%) - TTKT - Ổn định hệ thống tài chính (từ sau 2008) NHTW Hàn Quốc (BOK) - NVTTM - Chính sách chiết khấu - DTBB - Lãi suất NVTTM (lãi suất mua lại 7 ngày – repo 7 days) - LPMT 2 - 4% - Ổn định giá cả - Hỗ trợ TTKT NHTW Thái Lan (BOT) - NVTTM - Chính sách chiết khấu - DTBB - Lãi suất NVTTM (lãi suất repo song phương 1 ngày) - LPMT 3,5% ± 1,5% (từ 2015) - Ổn định giá cả - Ổn định tỷ giá (ổn định giá trị đồng tiền) - Hỗ trợ TTKT NHTW Trung Quốc (PBoC) - NVTTM - Tái cấp vốn, chiết khấu - DTBB - Lãi suất - TGHĐ - Tiền cơ sở - Dự trữ vượt mức - Lãi suất cho vay LNH - M2 - Ổn định giá trị đồng tiền - TTKT NHNN Việt Nam - NVTTM - Tái cấp vốn, chiết khấu - DTBB - Lãi suất - TGHĐ - HMTD - Tiền cơ sở (từ năm 1995) - Lãi suất LNH (từ năm 2012) - M2 (từ năm 1996) - Tín dụng - Lãi suất (từ năm 2012) - Ổn định giá cả - TTKT - Mức việc làm cao - Ổn định hệ thống tài chính Nguồn: Tác giả tổng hợp 199 Phụ lục 2: Hệ số tương quan giữa các biến số trong các mô hình kiểm định quy tắc CSTT Phụ lục 2.1: Hệ số tương quan giữa các biến số trong mô hình Taylor Tên biến P_RATE(-1) INF_GAP(-1) OUT_GAP(-1) OUT_G_GAP(-1) ER_GROW(-1) P_RATE(-1) 1.00 INF_GAP(-1) 0.70 1.00 OUT_GAP(-1) 0.41 0.14 1.00 OUT_G_GAP(-1) -0.47 -0.54 0.12 1.00 ER_GROW(-1) 0.47 0.32 0.03 -0.38 1.00 Phụ lục 2.2: Hệ số tương quan giữa các biến số trong mô hình McCallum Tên biến MB_GROW(-1) M2_GROW(-1) NGDP_GAP (-1) ER_GROW(-1) MB_GROW(-1) 1.00 M2_GROW(-1) 0.69 1.00 NGDP_GAP(-1) 0.08 0.04 1.00 ER_GROW(-1) -0.28 -0.18 -0.32 1.00 Phụ lục 2.3: Hệ số tương quan giữa các biến số trong mô hình Taylor – McCallum (Dạng công thức 3.3) Tên biến P_RATE(-1) NGDP_GAP(-1) ER_GROW(-1) P_RATE(-1) 1.00 NGDP_GAP(-1) -0.52 1.00 ER_GROW(-1) 0.47 -0.32 1.00 Phụ lục 2.4: Hệ số tương quan giữa các biến số trong mô hình Taylor – McCallum (Dạng công thức 3.4) Tên biến MB_GROW(-1) M2_GROW (-1) INF_GAP(-1) OUT_GAP(-1) OUT_G_GAP (-1) ER_GROW(-1) MB_GROW(-1) 1.00 M2_GROW(-1) 0.69 1.00 INF_GAP(-1) -0.28 -0.34 1.00 OUT_GAP(-1) 0.21 0.16 0.14 1.00 OUT_G_GAP(-1) 0.20 0.27 -0.54 0.12 1.00 ER_GROW(-1) -0.28 -0.18 0.32 0.03 -0.38 1.00 200 Phụ lục 3: Kết quả kiểm tra đồng tích hợp Phụ lục 3.1: Kiểm tra đồng tích hợp mô hình với công cụ lãi suất Giả thuyết số véc tơ đồng tích hợp Eigenvalue Trace test Max-Eigen test Statistic 5% Critical Value Prob.** Statistic 5% Critical Value Prob.** Kênh lãi suất None 0.608 164.918 95.754 0.000* 72.075 40.078 0.000* At most 1 0.357 92.843 69.819 0.000* 33.964 33.877 0.049* At most 2 0.300 58.879 47.856 0.003* 27.416 27.584 0.053 At most 3 0.216 31.462 29.797 0.032* 18.715 21.132 0.105 At most 4 0.139 12.748 15.495 0.124 11.551 14.265 0.129 At most 5 0.015 1.197 3.841 0.274 1.197 3.841 0.274 Kênh tỷ giá None 0.449 131.056 95.754 0.000* 45.861 40.078 0.010* At most 1 0.333 85.195 69.819 0.002* 31.176 33.877 0.102 At most 2 0.253 54.019 47.856 0.012* 22.431 27.584 0.199 At most 3 0.225 31.588 29.797 0.031* 19.587 21.132 0.081 At most 4 0.126 12.001 15.495 0.157 10.372 14.265 0.189 At most 5 0.021 1.628 3.841 0.202 1.628 3.841 0.202 Kênh giá tài sản None 0.392 117.890 95.754 0.001* 37.325 40.078 0.099* At most 1 0.296 80.565 69.819 0.005* 26.328 33.877 0.301 At most 2 0.261 54.237 47.856 0.011* 22.701 27.584 0.187 At most 3 0.226 31.536 29.797 0.031* 19.224 21.132 0.091 At most 4 0.145 12.312 15.495 0.143 11.770 14.265 0.120 At most 5 0.007 0.542 3.841 0.462 0.542 3.841 0.462 Kênh tín dụng None 0.387 125.147 95.754 0.000* 37.695 40.078 0.091 At most 1 0.305 87.452 69.819 0.001* 28.056 33.877 0.211 At most 2 0.280 59.396 47.856 0.003* 25.318 27.584 0.095 At most 3 0.210 34.077 29.797 0.015* 18.187 21.132 0.123 At most 4 0.160 15.891 15.495 0.044* 13.468 14.265 0.067 At most 5 0.031 2.423 3.841 0.120 2.423 3.841 0.120 Ghi chú: Ký hiệu * có nghĩa là giả thuyết về số vec tơ đồng tích hợp (null hypothesis) bị bác bỏ tại mức ý nghĩa 5%. 201 Phụ lục 3.2: Kiểm tra đồng tích hợp mô hình với công cụ lượng cung tiền Giả thuyết số véc tơ đồng tích hợp Eigenvalue Trace test Max-Eigen test Statistic 5% Critical Value Prob.** Statistic 5% Critical Value Prob.** Kênh lãi suất None 0.604 166.396 95.754 0.000* 71.385 40.078 0.000* At most 1 0.420 95.011 69.819 0.000* 41.896 33.877 0.005* At most 2 0.302 53.115 47.856 0.015* 27.634 27.584 0.049* At most 3 0.194 25.481 29.797 0.145 16.599 21.132 0.192 At most 4 0.087 8.882 15.495 0.376 6.967 14.265 0.493 At most 5 0.025 1.915 3.841 0.166 1.915 3.841 0.166 Kênh tỷ giá None 0.528 142.340 95.754 0.000* 57.817 40.078 0.000* At most 1 0.351 84.522 69.819 0.002* 33.287 33.877 0.059 At most 2 0.291 51.236 47.856 0.023* 26.459 27.584 0.069 At most 3 0.213 24.777 29.797 0.170 18.475 21.132 0.113 At most 4 0.067 6.301 15.495 0.660 5.377 14.265 0.694 At most 5 0.012 0.925 3.841 0.336 0.925 3.841 0.336 Kênh giá tài sản None 0.469 138.128 95.754 0.000* 47.505 40.078 0.006* At most 1 0.392 90.623 69.819 0.001* 37.317 33.877 0.019* At most 2 0.360 53.305 47.856 0.014* 33.436 27.584 0.008* At most 3 0.153 19.869 29.797 0.432 12.483 21.132 0.501 At most 4 0.087 7.386 15.495 0.533 6.819 14.265 0.511 At most 5 0.008 0.568 3.841 0.451 0.568 3.841 0.451 Kênh tín dụng None 0.399 120.685 95.754 0.000* 39.168 40.078 0.063 At most 1 0.356 81.517 69.819 0.004* 33.937 33.877 0.049* At most 2 0.245 47.580 47.856 0.053 21.627 27.584 0.240 At most 3 0.161 25.953 29.797 0.130 13.476 21.132 0.409 At most 4 0.118 12.476 15.495 0.136 9.636 14.265 0.237 At most 5 0.036 2.840 3.841 0.092 2.840 3.841 0.092 Ghi chú: Ký hiệu * có nghĩa là giả thuyết về số vec tơ đồng tích hợp (null hypothesis) bị bác bỏ tại mức ý nghĩa 5%. 202 Phụ lục 4: Lựa chọn độ trễ tối ưu của mô hình VAR Phụ lục 4.1: Độ trễ của mô hình VAR với công cụ lãi suất Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ Kênh lãi suất 0 -484.7107 NA 7.135262 13.31650 13.56559 13.41587 1 238.7833 1329.665 3.55e-08 -5.804954 -5.057690 -5.506861 2 327.5647 153.5679 4.98e-09 -7.772020 -6.526579 -7.275198 3 362.2218 56.20061 3.05e-09 -8.276264 -6.532647* -7.580714 4 393.6461 47.56108 2.05e-09 -8.693137 -6.451344 -7.798858 5 411.4862 25.07268 2.02e-09 -8.742871 -6.002902 -7.649864 6 449.9686 49.92307* 1.16e-09* -9.350503* -6.112357 -8.058767* Kênh tỷ giá 0 -145.4080 NA 0.000743 4.146162 4.395250 4.245526 1 597.0642 1364.543 2.21e-12 -15.48822 -14.74096 -15.19013 2 632.9502 62.07309 1.30e-12 -16.02568 -14.78024* -15.52886 3 663.2998 49.21553 8.91e-13 -16.41351 -14.66989 -15.71796* 4 681.3145 27.26554 8.62e-13 -16.46796 -14.22617 -15.57368 5 704.5671 32.67938* 7.33e-13* -16.66398* -13.92401 -15.57097 6 717.2850 16.49884 8.43e-13 -16.57527 -13.33712 -15.28353 Kênh giá tài sản 0 -267.8687 NA 0.025011 7.663020 7.915982 7.763725 1 431.2537 1281.724 1.44e-10 -11.31260 -10.55372* -11.01049 2 464.6266 57.47546 8.93e-11 -11.79518 -10.53037 -11.29166 3 497.5460 53.03681 5.65e-11 -12.26517 -10.49443 -11.56023 4 517.9233 30.56596 5.12e-11 -12.38676 -10.11009 -11.48041 5 544.9021 37.47053* 3.92e-11 -12.69172 -9.909133 -11.58397* 6 563.9044 24.28077 3.81e-11* -12.77512* -9.486605 -11.46595 Kênh tín dụng 0 -244.0279 NA 0.010675 6.811566 7.060654 6.910930 1 585.0161 1523.648 3.06e-12 -15.16260 -14.41533 -14.86450 2 621.4418 63.00668 1.77e-12 -15.71464 -14.46920* -15.21782 3 640.5646 31.00989 1.65e-12 -15.79904 -14.05543 -15.10349 4 666.7963 39.70200 1.28e-12 -16.07558 -13.83378 -15.18130 5 697.4523 43.08407* 8.89e-13* -16.47168* -13.73171 -15.37868* 6 707.6890 13.28016 1.09e-12 -16.31592 -13.07777 -15.02418 203 Phụ lục 4.2: Độ trễ của mô hình VAR với công cụ lượng cung tiền M2 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ Kênh lãi suất 0 -280.4750 NA 0.028586 7.796621 8.045709 7.895985 1 514.8217 1461.626 2.04e-11 -13.26545 -12.51819 -12.96736 2 617.7020 177.9552 1.96e-12 -15.61357 -14.36813 -15.11675 3 656.8002 63.40252 1.06e-12 -16.23784 -14.49423* -15.54229 4 686.4978 44.94766 7.49e-13 -16.60805 -14.36626 -15.71377* 5 698.1729 16.40832 8.71e-13 -16.49116 -13.75119 -15.39815 6 731.0215 42.61438* 5.82e-13* -16.94653* -13.70838 -15.65479 Kênh tỷ giá 0 70.58196 NA 2.17e-06 -1.691404 -1.442316 -1.592040 1 879.6325 1486.904 1.07e-15 -23.12520 -22.37794 -22.82711 2 929.4697 86.20487 4.29e-16 -24.03972 -22.79428 -23.54290 3 966.8776 60.66152 2.44e-16 -24.61831 -22.87470* -23.92276* 4 985.7195 28.51745* 2.30e-16 -24.69512 -22.45333 -23.80084 5 1003.673 25.23263 2.26e-16* -24.74793* -22.00796 -23.65492 6 1012.355 11.26199 2.90e-16 -24.55012 -21.31198 -23.25839 Kênh giá tài sản 0 -37.90270 NA 4.21e-05 1.275075 1.528038 1.375780 1 711.3858 1373.696 6.00e-14 -19.09405 -18.33516 -18.79194 2 758.4113 80.98836 2.55e-14 -19.95587 -18.69106* -19.45234 3 790.0128 50.91349 1.67e-14 -20.38924 -18.61850 -19.68431* 4 808.7816 28.15316* 1.59e-14* -20.46616* -18.18949 -19.55981 5 821.2867 17.36825 1.82e-14 -20.36908 -17.58648 -19.26132 6 838.5487 22.05692 1.85e-14 -20.40413 -17.11561 -19.09496 Kênh tín dụng 0 41.14140 NA 4.80e-06 -0.895713 -0.646625 -0.796349 1 879.4479 1540.671 1.07e-15 -23.12021 -22.37295 -22.82212 2 935.3863 96.75831 3.66e-16 -24.19963 -22.95419* -23.70281 3 957.2187 35.40390 3.16e-16 -24.35726 -22.61364 -23.66171 4 985.2292 42.39429* 2.33e-16* -24.68187* -22.44008 -23.78759* 5 996.1379 15.33121 2.77e-16 -24.54427 -21.80430 -23.45126 6 1011.688 20.17325 2.95e-16 -24.53211 -21.29397 -23.24038 204 Phụ lục 5: Kiểm định tính bền vững của mô hình VAR Phụ lục 5.1: Kiểm định tính bền vững của mô hình VAR với công cụ lãi suất Kênh lãi suất -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Kênh tỷ giá -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Kênh giá tài sản -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Kênh tín dụng -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial 205 Phụ lục 5.2: Kiểm định tính bền vững của mô hình VAR với công cụ M2 Kênh lãi suất -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Kênh tỷ giá -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Kênh giá tài sản -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Kênh tín dụng -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial Phụ lục 6: Kết quả phân rã phương sai Phụ lục 6.1: Kết quả phân rã phương sai khi sử dụng công cụ lãi suất Biến số Phân rã Quý S.E. OIL FFR PR Kênh CPI GDP Kênh lãi suất PR 1 0.94 0.26 0.00 99.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 2.51 5.17 23.64 32.08 32.77 3.60 2.73 8 3.00 5.64 18.80 26.31 42.60 3.21 3.43 10 3.05 5.49 18.19 25.50 44.27 3.19 3.36 206 12 3.12 6.59 17.47 25.23 43.49 3.66 3.57 LR 1 0.74 1.96 1.46 50.66 45.91 0.00 0.00 4 2.18 3.80 22.64 16.45 18.89 33.80 4.41 8 4.47 11.96 27.57 5.37 25.31 22.09 7.69 10 4.70 11.26 27.91 7.96 23.08 21.36 8.43 12 4.73 11.11 27.85 8.79 22.76 21.18 8.32 CPI 1 0.01 1.04 21.73 14.07 21.72 41.45 0.00 4 0.05 9.09 25.90 2.54 36.34 21.76 4.37 8 0.08 9.21 19.39 6.23 43.79 18.27 3.11 10 0.09 8.68 17.69 6.08 47.53 17.26 2.77 12 0.10 7.64 16.11 5.13 50.24 18.49 2.39 GDP 1 0.00 2.47 1.59 4.90 0.63 1.22 89.19 4 0.01 5.70 22.15 13.81 4.41 4.36 49.56 8 0.01 3.57 39.36 9.17 20.50 2.75 24.64 10 0.01 2.57 42.08 7.69 29.86 1.77 16.04 12 0.02 3.37 39.91 5.85 38.61 1.37 10.88 Kênh tỷ giá PR 1 0.92 0.06 0.15 99.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 2.40 4.07 13.64 45.06 17.14 18.34 1.74 8 3.04 2.65 9.20 34.20 31.14 16.10 6.70 10 3.08 2.63 9.07 34.17 31.51 16.07 6.55 12 3.10 2.60 9.19 34.01 31.44 16.15 6.61 REER 1 0.01 0.17 1.78 5.20 92.85 0.00 0.00 4 0.03 2.87 15.29 2.01 77.09 0.96 1.77 8 0.04 7.54 22.17 1.71 63.85 1.38 3.34 10 0.04 8.05 21.76 1.88 62.02 2.95 3.35 12 0.04 8.31 22.33 1.83 58.76 5.52 3.26 CPI 1 0.01 2.53 9.95 29.88 1.07 56.56 0.00 4 0.04 6.48 17.91 14.61 16.98 43.46 0.56 8 0.07 2.39 9.03 15.19 41.30 27.17 4.91 10 0.08 1.81 6.83 16.71 44.67 25.68 4.30 12 0.09 1.42 5.32 17.46 46.34 25.12 4.34 GDP 1 0.01 0.29 0.75 3.32 0.02 1.06 94.56 4 0.01 4.75 14.76 8.06 0.80 2.39 69.24 8 0.01 5.02 26.16 9.88 7.96 6.33 44.65 10 0.02 6.25 28.24 9.71 10.85 9.71 35.24 12 0.02 6.09 24.94 11.14 15.57 11.57 30.70 Kênh giá tài sản PR 1 0.86 0.87 5.22 93.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 1.73 1.90 26.33 60.72 7.19 3.21 0.65 8 2.78 3.58 18.61 36.85 35.53 2.12 3.30 10 3.12 3.02 16.63 30.61 43.14 1.74 4.86 12 3.22 2.97 16.13 29.06 42.61 2.24 7.00 VNI 1 0.11 1.47 1.06 0.17 97.30 0.00 0.00 4 0.25 7.44 21.03 2.44 59.58 6.04 3.48 8 0.33 7.00 32.51 5.45 36.02 13.88 5.14 10 0.37 5.78 26.85 11.75 31.23 19.84 4.55 12 0.39 5.80 25.27 12.67 29.98 21.83 4.45 CPI 1 0.01 0.34 9.77 9.78 0.11 79.99 0.00 4 0.03 3.39 32.44 2.30 8.41 51.09 2.37 8 0.05 2.71 12.54 13.76 46.23 22.46 2.30 10 0.07 2.40 9.28 13.02 54.99 17.23 3.08 12 0.08 2.40 8.17 10.75 57.15 17.07 4.46 GDP 1 0.01 1.02 1.32 0.05 9.89 0.92 86.80 4 0.01 3.68 2.85 10.16 8.56 0.93 73.82 8 0.01 2.77 8.73 15.52 10.33 2.91 59.74 10 0.01 2.56 7.26 21.00 19.30 2.47 47.41 12 0.02 1.96 5.56 22.29 27.08 1.91 41.21 Kênh tín dụng PR 1 0.94 0.02 0.02 99.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 2.14 10.50 32.81 43.56 6.58 5.78 0.77 207 8 2.50 8.46 29.71 33.12 8.74 17.87 2.08 10 2.58 8.08 28.10 32.55 8.34 20.81 2.11 12 2.68 7.52 26.37 35.94 7.95 20.12 2.09 CREDIT 1 0.02 0.47 3.77 20.60 75.16 0.00 0.00 4 0.06 1.43 1.02 41.39 44.87 10.11 1.18 8 0.10 0.83 1.20 43.50 33.41 19.56 1.49 10 0.12 0.63 0.91 48.02 29.88 19.01 1.53 12 0.13 0.53 0.77 50.46 27.26 19.40 1.57 CPI 1 0.01 6.30 14.68 17.25 1.20 60.58 0.00 4 0.03 22.13 29.08 3.27 7.28 37.43 0.81 8 0.04 23.44 32.77 2.14 16.38 23.78 1.50 10 0.05 23.78 32.76 2.64 18.15 21.02 1.66 12 0.05 22.44 29.71 6.98 20.12 18.83 1.92 GDP 1 0.01 1.95 0.93 2.23 0.18 3.15 91.55 4 0.01 4.39 11.86 6.85 6.95 9.95 60.00 8 0.01 4.59 36.82 7.94 7.67 8.09 34.89 10 0.01 8.97 44.38 5.06 8.48 6.66 26.45 12 0.02 9.85 46.61 3.68 9.20 7.90 22.76 Phụ lục 6.2: Phân rã phương sai đối với công cụ cung tiền M2 Biến số Phân rã Quý S.E. OIL FFR M2 Kênh CPI GDP Kênh lãi suất M2 1 0.02 1.03 0.01 98.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.05 6.57 0.59 85.97 1.40 0.22 5.25 8 0.06 4.43 3.59 78.96 2.59 2.06 8.36 10 0.07 3.42 3.85 76.34 2.88 4.69 8.81 12 0.08 3.08 3.79 74.39 2.78 6.17 9.80 LR 1 0.86 16.28 17.38 15.34 51.00 0.00 0.00 4 1.84 10.40 7.69 12.07 16.57 50.33 2.93 8 3.38 14.86 8.58 33.84 7.50 31.57 3.65 10 3.58 13.45 8.53 35.23 6.94 32.42 3.42 12 3.81 12.03 9.23 38.28 6.89 29.27 4.31 CPI 1 0.01 11.11 0.97 8.82 19.38 59.72 0.00 4 0.02 37.03 11.36 6.89 22.94 21.67 0.11 8 0.04 40.31 10.97 9.75 25.69 12.92 0.36 10 0.04 41.93 9.85 8.36 24.51 14.62 0.74 12 0.04 41.55 9.46 8.03 24.62 14.50 1.83 GDP 1 0.00 2.80 0.29 8.74 4.26 1.10 82.80 4 0.01 10.81 16.61 10.01 12.72 2.46 47.38 8 0.01 6.96 31.49 7.48 19.78 4.76 29.52 10 0.01 6.04 35.21 7.11 22.36 3.73 25.55 12 0.01 7.25 32.99 5.44 24.73 7.20 22.39 Kênh tỷ giá M2 1 0.02 1.34 0.10 98.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.05 1.11 0.22 89.52 5.26 3.37 0.53 8 0.07 3.23 8.31 74.55 10.01 3.39 0.51 10 0.07 3.46 10.20 72.84 9.79 3.17 0.54 12 0.08 3.99 11.17 71.46 9.60 3.27 0.51 REER 1 0.01 2.86 6.46 0.02 90.66 0.00 0.00 4 0.03 3.51 14.22 2.46 71.35 8.40 0.06 8 0.04 2.38 20.58 7.57 51.24 17.65 0.60 10 0.04 4.09 18.87 8.77 49.91 17.64 0.72 12 0.04 5.68 19.31 10.43 46.27 17.60 0.71 CPI 1 0.01 4.04 4.52 12.44 0.32 78.67 0.00 4 0.03 7.21 22.15 5.87 17.53 47.11 0.13 8 0.05 11.04 19.00 14.60 29.04 26.04 0.27 10 0.05 17.35 16.99 14.04 27.98 23.16 0.48 12 0.06 20.89 15.12 16.75 25.57 20.85 0.82 208 GDP 1 0.01 3.06 0.69 14.74 0.18 0.49 80.84 4 0.01 11.26 13.40 12.27 3.61 7.65 51.80 8 0.01 13.24 26.24 22.90 2.43 3.72 31.47 10 0.02 18.36 27.64 21.04 2.31 3.84 26.81 12 0.02 22.10 26.13 21.61 2.35 3.42 24.39 Kênh giá tài sản M2 1 0.02 1.86 0.15 97.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.04 2.25 0.22 89.25 0.35 7.41 0.52 8 0.06 4.48 2.30 78.19 3.33 11.32 0.38 10 0.07 4.68 2.67 77.00 4.32 10.91 0.42 12 0.08 4.98 3.06 75.18 4.47 11.90 0.41 VNI 1 0.12 10.25 7.55 9.41 72.79 0.00 0.00 4 0.19 6.65 25.55 12.24 44.60 9.67 1.28 8 0.26 3.47 37.65 10.22 32.64 14.35 1.68 10 0.29 3.54 37.43 9.42 35.68 12.35 1.59 12 0.29 4.13 37.40 8.86 36.48 11.63 1.50 CPI 1 0.01 5.55 3.51 7.89 0.56 82.48 0.00 4 0.03 17.08 14.68 6.16 1.05 59.46 1.57 8 0.05 20.52 8.81 26.56 9.62 30.79 3.71 10 0.05 24.03 7.44 28.69 11.93 24.45 3.45 12 0.06 25.43 6.45 33.38 11.08 20.58 3.09 GDP 1 0.01 0.00 1.16 7.60 0.04 0.37 90.82 4 0.01 7.22 21.38 5.28 1.90 3.80 60.41 8 0.01 8.50 38.12 10.64 2.37 1.74 38.64 10 0.02 11.49 39.22 11.91 3.88 1.31 32.19 12 0.02 14.30 38.17 14.54 5.26 1.05 26.68 Kênh tín dụng M2 1 0.02 2.69 0.72 96.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.05 2.59 3.79 91.00 0.86 1.52 0.24 8 0.07 5.65 14.79 76.63 1.30 1.50 0.13 10 0.08 6.04 16.30 74.27 1.75 1.51 0.12 12 0.08 6.64 17.38 72.09 1.75 2.03 0.11 CREDIT 1 0.02 0.02 9.22 10.82 79.94 0.00 0.00 4 0.06 1.41 3.73 65.46 24.43 3.90 1.06 8 0.08 2.04 1.61 76.16 13.90 5.41 0.88 10 0.10 2.63 1.29 79.76 10.49 5.13 0.70 12 0.11 3.61 1.50 80.88 8.42 5.02 0.57 CPI 1 0.01 1.49 2.41 11.43 1.05 83.62 0.00 4 0.03 5.50 37.15 5.76 3.16 45.49 2.94 8 0.04 3.28 41.35 18.19 6.94 28.01 2.24 10 0.05 3.37 38.78 20.11 11.05 24.70 1.99 12 0.05 3.10 34.99 25.36 13.22 21.58 1.74 GDP 1 0.01 0.06 1.08 16.15 0.45 2.41 79.84 4 0.01 2.10 17.07 8.93 5.60 7.40 58.90 8 0.01 0.99 37.69 13.64 11.20 2.75 33.72 10 0.02 0.96 41.34 14.51 14.08 1.91 27.19 12 0.02 0.97 42.68 16.25 15.30 1.46 23.33 Ghi chú: Tất cả các số liệu trong phần định lượng ở các Phụ lục trên là do tác giả tính toán và tổng hợp trên phần mềm kinh tế lượng.