Luận án Sở thích rủi ro, vốn xã hội và rủi ro cho vay tín dụng vi mô – Nghiên cứu thí nghiệm tại vùng đồng bằng sông Cửu Long

biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 20.509 9 .015 Block 20.509 9 .015 Model 20.509 9 .015 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 146.388a .110 .180 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 6.241 8 .620 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 143 1 99.3 no xau 29 3 9.4 Overall Percentage 83.0 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.367 .137 7.207 1 .007 .693 .553 .867 age -.171 .093 3.425 1 .064 .842 .723 .981 gender -.315 .458 .473 1 .492 .730 .344 1.549 age_2 .002 .001 2.885 1 .089 1.002 1.000 1.003 edu -.406 .223 3.324 1 .068 .666 .462 .961 work_member .883 .947 .869 1 .351 2.417 .509 11.477 living_area -.192 .456 .178 1 .673 .825 .390 1.746 loan_size -.040 .019 4.642 1 .031 .961 .932 .991 loan_term -.009 .014 .412 1 .521 .991 .968 1.014 Constant 5.730 2.738 4.379 1 .036 307.884 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, age, gender, age_2, edu, work_member, living_area, loan_size, loan_term. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm đóng góp cho cộng đồng đến nợ xấu. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 26.428 1 .000 Block 26.428 1 .000 Model 26.428 1 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 140.469a .139 .228 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. .000 0 0 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 129 15 89.6 no xau 15 17 53.1 Overall Percentage 83.0 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.277 .447 25.934 1 .000 .103 .049 .214 Constant .125 .354 .125 1 .724 1.133 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 27.829 3 .000 Block 27.829 3 .000 Model 27.829 3 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 139.068a .146 .239 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 6.725 8 .567 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 135 9 93.8 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 83.5 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.260 .451 25.111 1 .000 .104 .050 .219 age .007 .017 .152 1 .697 1.007 .979 1.035 gender -.494 .456 1.171 1 .279 .610 .288 1.293 Constant -.002 .864 .000 1 .998 .998 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, age, gender. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2 và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 28.462 4 .000 Block 28.462 4 .000 Model 28.462 4 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 138.435a .149 .244 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 2.800 8 .946 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 134 10 93.1 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 83.0 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.222 .454 23.979 1 .000 .108 .051 .229 age -.068 .094 .527 1 .468 .934 .801 1.090 gender -.493 .457 1.161 1 .281 .611 .288 1.296 age_2 .001 .001 .657 1 .418 1.001 .999 1.002 Constant 1.659 2.224 .556 1 .456 5.253 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, age, gender, age_2. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính và Trình độ học vấn. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 29.383 5 .000 Block 29.383 5 .000 Model 29.383 5 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 137.514a .154 .251 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 6.624 8 .578 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 134 10 93.1 no xau 22 10 31.3 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.167 .457 22.481 1 .000 .115 .054 .243 age -.095 .099 .923 1 .337 .909 .773 1.070 gender -.451 .462 .954 1 .329 .637 .298 1.362 age_2 .001 .001 .962 1 .327 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.203 .215 .886 1 .346 .817 .573 1.163 Constant 2.934 2.630 1.244 1 .265 18.795 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, age, gender, age_2, edu. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 34.057 9 .000 Block 34.057 9 .000 Model 34.057 9 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 132.840a .176 .287 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 5.435 8 .710 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 135 9 93.8 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 83.5 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.164 .473 20.894 1 .000 .115 .053 .250 age -.094 .102 .860 1 .354 .910 .770 1.076 gender -.314 .491 .407 1 .523 .731 .326 1.639 age_2 .001 .001 .838 1 .360 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.256 .231 1.229 1 .268 .774 .530 1.132 work_member 1.288 .996 1.672 1 .196 3.625 .704 18.651 living_area -.230 .488 .223 1 .637 .794 .356 1.771 loan_size -.032 .020 2.647 1 .104 .968 .937 1.000 loan_term -.002 .015 .027 1 .870 .998 .974 1.022 Constant 2.962 2.798 1.120 1 .290 19.332 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, age, gender, age_2, edu, work_member, living_area, loan_size, loan_term. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sự tin tưởng đến nợ xấu. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 8.636 1 .003 Block 8.636 1 .003 Model 8.636 1 .003 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 158.261a .048 .078 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 9.775 8 .281 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 144 0 100.0 no xau 32 0 .0 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a amount_passed -2.420 .901 7.214 1 .007 .089 .020 .391 Constant -.589 .360 2.683 1 .101 .555 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: amount_passed. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 9.239 3 .026 Block 9.239 3 .026 Model 9.239 3 .026 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 157.658a .051 .083 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 1 Chi-square df Sig. 4.729 8 .786 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 144 0 100.0 no xau 32 0 .0 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a amount_passed -2.284 .937 5.943 1 .015 .102 .022 .476 age -.004 .016 .068 1 .794 .996 .969 1.023 gender -.316 .438 .520 1 .471 .729 .355 1.498 Constant -.321 .893 .129 1 .719 .725 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: amount_passed, age, gender. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2 và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 11.125 4 .025 Block 11.125 4 .025 Model 11.125 4 .025 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 155.772a .061 .100 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 4.913 8 .767 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 143 1 99.3 no xau 31 1 3.1 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a amount_passed -2.301 .944 5.949 1 .015 .100 .021 .473 age -.121 .085 2.023 1 .155 .886 .770 1.019 gender -.295 .441 .445 1 .505 .745 .360 1.540 age_2 .001 .001 1.938 1 .164 1.001 1.000 1.003 Constant 2.328 2.073 1.261 1 .262 10.254 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: amount_passed, age, gender, age_2. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính và Trình độ học vấn. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 13.526 5 .019 Block 13.526 5 .019 Model 13.526 5 .019 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 153.371a .074 .121 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 7.647 8 .469 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 143 1 99.3 no xau 31 1 3.1 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a amount_passed -2.228 .920 5.859 1 .015 .108 .024 .490 age -.171 .093 3.353 1 .067 .843 .723 .983 gender -.189 .450 .175 1 .675 .828 .395 1.737 age_2 .002 .001 2.924 1 .087 1.002 1.000 1.003 edu -.313 .210 2.233 1 .135 .731 .518 1.032 Constant 4.523 2.580 3.073 1 .080 92.136 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 20.384 9 .016 Block 20.384 9 .016 Model 20.384 9 .016 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 146.513a .109 .179 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 7.714 8 .462 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 141 3 97.9 no xau 29 3 9.4 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a amount_passed -2.427 .948 6.561 1 .010 .088 .019 .420 age -.172 .094 3.359 1 .067 .842 .722 .983 gender .092 .483 .036 1 .849 1.097 .495 2.429 age_2 .002 .001 2.802 1 .094 1.002 1.000 1.003 edu -.395 .226 3.048 1 .081 .673 .464 .977 living_area -.029 .455 .004 1 .948 .971 .460 2.051 work_member .890 .917 .943 1 .332 2.435 .539 10.994 loan_size -.041 .019 4.800 1 .028 .960 .931 .990 loan_term -.006 .014 .185 1 .667 .994 .972 1.017 Constant 5.149 2.690 3.665 1 .056 172.325 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu, living_area, work_member, loan_size, loan_term. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sở thích rủi ro và thí nghiệm đóng góp cho cộng đồng đến nợ xấu. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 31.872 2 .000 Block 31.872 2 .000 Model 31.872 2 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 135.026a .166 .270 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 5.344 5 .375 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 138 6 95.8 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 85.2 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.308 .137 5.054 1 .025 .735 .587 .921 game_2 -2.277 .461 24.352 1 .000 .103 .048 .219 Constant 1.199 .603 3.949 1 .047 3.316 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sở thích rủi ro và đóng góp cho cộng đồng khi thêm các biến đặc điểm nhân khẩu học. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 33.361 4 .000 Block 33.361 4 .000 Model 33.361 4 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 133.536a .173 .282 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 7.853 8 .448 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 137 7 95.1 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 84.7 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.319 .141 5.132 1 .023 .727 .577 .916 game_2 -2.244 .465 23.251 1 .000 .106 .049 .228 age .000 .018 .000 1 .996 1.000 .972 1.029 gender -.560 .466 1.443 1 .230 .571 .266 1.230 Constant 1.427 1.087 1.724 1 .189 4.167 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, age, gender. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2 và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 34.058 5 .000 Block 34.058 5 .000 Model 34.058 5 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 132.839a .176 .287 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 8.678 8 .370 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 137 7 95.1 no xau 19 13 40.6 Overall Percentage 85.2 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.322 .142 5.178 1 .023 .725 .574 .915 game_2 -2.210 .468 22.334 1 .000 .110 .051 .237 age -.079 .095 .700 1 .403 .924 .791 1.079 gender -.550 .466 1.391 1 .238 .577 .268 1.242 age_2 .001 .001 .727 1 .394 1.001 .999 1.002 Constant 3.192 2.342 1.858 1 .173 24.344 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, age, gender, age_2. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính và Trình độ học vấn. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 35.035 6 .000 Block 35.035 6 .000 Model 35.035 6 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 131.863a .180 .295 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step Chi-square df Sig. 7.894 8 .444 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 137 7 95.1 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 84.7 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.327 .143 5.214 1 .022 .721 .569 .913 game_2 -2.154 .471 20.901 1 .000 .116 .053 .252 age -.106 .099 1.140 1 .286 .899 .764 1.059 gender -.519 .470 1.216 1 .270 .595 .275 1.290 age_2 .001 .001 1.041 1 .307 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.212 .219 .933 1 .334 .809 .564 1.160 Constant 4.517 2.738 2.722 1 .099 91.544 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, age, gender, age_2, edu. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 40.703 10 .000 Block 40.703 10 .000 Model 40.703 10 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 126.194a .206 .337 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 5.379 8 .716 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 136 8 94.4 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 84.1 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.360 .146 6.090 1 .014 .698 .549 .887 game_2 -2.139 .486 19.395 1 .000 .118 .053 .262 age -.110 .101 1.186 1 .276 .896 .758 1.058 gender -.317 .502 .400 1 .527 .728 .319 1.662 age_2 .001 .001 1.004 1 .316 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.288 .237 1.471 1 .225 .750 .508 1.108 living_area -.352 .509 .479 1 .489 .703 .304 1.624 work_member 1.270 1.021 1.547 1 .214 3.560 .664 19.091 loan_size -.039 .021 3.319 1 .068 .962 .928 .996 loan_term -.006 .015 .139 1 .710 .994 .969 1.020 Constant 5.042 2.951 2.918 1 .088 154.766 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, age, gender, age_2, edu, living_area, work_member, loan_size, loan_term. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sở thích rủi ro và sự tin tưởng đến nợ xấu. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 13.417 2 .001 Block 13.417 2 .001 Model 13.417 2 .001 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 153.480a .073 .120 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 7.407 8 .493 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 144 0 100.0 no xau 30 2 6.3 Overall Percentage 83.0 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.281 .133 4.468 1 .035 .755 .607 .940 amount_passed -2.159 .902 5.736 1 .017 .115 .026 .508 Constant .285 .542 .277 1 .599 1.330 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, amount_passed. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 14.905 4 .005 Block 14.905 4 .005 Model 14.905 4 .005 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 151.992a .081 .133 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 16.400 8 .037 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 143 1 99.3 no xau 31 1 3.1 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.313 .136 5.261 1 .022 .731 .585 .915 amount_passed -2.018 .925 4.757 1 .029 .133 .029 .609 age -.010 .017 .363 1 .547 .990 .963 1.018 gender -.463 .445 1.081 1 .299 .629 .302 1.310 Constant .989 1.068 .858 1 .354 2.689 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, amount_passed, age, gender. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2 và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 16.668 5 .005 Block 16.668 5 .005 Model 16.668 5 .005 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 150.229a .090 .147 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 7.326 8 .502 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 142 2 98.6 no xau 31 1 3.1 Overall Percentage 81.3 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.311 .137 5.150 1 .023 .733 .585 .918 amount_passed -2.046 .933 4.807 1 .028 .129 .028 .600 age -.124 .086 2.070 1 .150 .883 .766 1.018 gender -.423 .448 .890 1 .346 .655 .314 1.369 age_2 .001 .001 1.802 1 .180 1.001 1.000 1.003 Constant 3.573 2.185 2.673 1 .102 35.622 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính và Trình độ học vấn. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 18.868 6 .004 Block 18.868 6 .004 Model 18.868 6 .004 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 148.029a .102 .166 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 5.019 8 .756 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 141 3 97.9 no xau 31 1 3.1 Overall Percentage 80.7 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.312 .140 4.965 1 .026 .732 .582 .922 amount_passed -1.952 .914 4.564 1 .033 .142 .032 .638 age -.170 .094 3.265 1 .071 .843 .722 .985 gender -.335 .457 .539 1 .463 .715 .337 1.516 age_2 .001 .001 2.660 1 .103 1.001 1.000 1.003 edu -.303 .211 2.050 1 .152 .739 .522 1.046 Constant 5.630 2.662 4.473 1 .034 278.645 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 26.418 10 .003 Block 26.418 10 .003 Model 26.418 10 .003 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 140.479a .139 .228 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 15.037 8 .058 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 139 5 96.5 no xau 26 6 18.8 Overall Percentage 82.4 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.337 .143 5.581 1 .018 .714 .565 .903 amount_passed -2.121 .937 5.125 1 .024 .120 .026 .560 age -.179 .094 3.617 1 .057 .836 .716 .976 gender -.030 .490 .004 1 .951 .970 .433 2.174 age_2 .002 .001 2.743 1 .098 1.002 1.000 1.003 edu -.421 .235 3.205 1 .073 .657 .446 .966 living_area -.094 .467 .040 1 .841 .911 .423 1.962 work_member 1.186 .987 1.445 1 .229 3.275 .646 16.603 loan_size -.042 .019 4.827 1 .028 .958 .928 .989 loan_term -.007 .014 .273 1 .601 .993 .970 1.016 Constant 6.543 2.817 5.394 1 .020 694.134 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu, living_area, work_member, loan_size, loan_term. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm đóng góp cho cộng đồng và sự tin tưởng đến nợ xấu. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 32.395 2 .000 Block 32.395 2 .000 Model 32.395 2 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 134.502a .168 .274 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 7.158 7 .413 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 137 7 95.1 no xau 17 15 46.9 Overall Percentage 86.4 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.221 .461 23.212 1 .000 .108 .051 .232 amount_passed -2.097 .917 5.225 1 .022 .123 .027 .555 Constant .890 .492 3.273 1 .070 2.435 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, amount_passed. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 32.665 4 .000 Block 32.665 4 .000 Model 32.665 4 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 134.232a .169 .277 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 5.804 8 .669 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correc t no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 137 7 95.1 no xau 17 15 46.9 Overall Percentage 86.4 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.208 .462 22.865 1 .000 .110 .051 .235 amount_passed -1.989 .964 4.257 1 .039 .137 .028 .668 age -.002 .018 .009 1 .925 .998 .969 1.028 gender -.245 .481 .259 1 .611 .783 .355 1.726 Constant 1.010 1.010 .999 1 .318 2.745 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, amount_passed, age, gender. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2 và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 33.312 5 .000 Block 33.312 5 .000 Model 33.312 5 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 133.585a .172 .281 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 5.072 8 .750 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 137 7 95.1 no xau 17 15 46.9 Overall Percentage 86.4 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.168 .465 21.768 1 .000 .114 .053 .246 amount_passed -2.003 .971 4.256 1 .039 .135 .027 .666 age -.078 .095 .673 1 .412 .925 .791 1.082 gender -.237 .482 .241 1 .624 .789 .357 1.745 age_2 .001 .001 .670 1 .413 1.001 .999 1.002 Constant 2.709 2.317 1.367 1 .242 15.016 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính và Trình độ học vấn. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 34.406 6 .000 Block 34.406 6 .000 Model 34.406 6 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 132.491a .178 .290 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 8.206 8 .414 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 136 8 94.4 no xau 18 14 43.8 Overall Percentage 85.2 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.114 .467 20.512 1 .000 .121 .056 .260 amount_passed -2.020 .964 4.394 1 .036 .133 .027 .647 age -.110 .101 1.187 1 .276 .895 .758 1.058 gender -.180 .490 .134 1 .714 .836 .373 1.871 age_2 .001 .001 1.042 1 .307 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.228 .222 1.058 1 .304 .796 .552 1.147 Constant 4.200 2.769 2.301 1 .129 66.692 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 39.742 10 .000 Block 39.742 10 .000 Model 39.742 10 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 127.155a .202 .330 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 4.807 8 .778 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 140 4 97.2 no xau 18 14 43.8 Overall Percentage 87.5 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_2 -2.099 .484 18.769 1 .000 .123 .055 .272 amount_passed -2.202 .992 4.934 1 .026 .111 .022 .565 age -.111 .105 1.109 1 .292 .895 .753 1.064 gender .039 .535 .005 1 .941 1.040 .431 2.509 age_2 .001 .001 .874 1 .350 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.314 .243 1.669 1 .196 .731 .490 1.089 living_area -.067 .503 .018 1 .894 .935 .409 2.141 work_member 1.413 1.011 1.955 1 .162 4.109 .779 21.669 loan_size -.036 .021 3.037 1 .081 .965 .932 .998 loan_term -.003 .015 .030 1 .863 .997 .973 1.022 Constant 4.354 2.954 2.172 1 .141 77.754 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_2, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu, living_area, work_member, loan_size, loan_term. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của cả 3 thí nghiệm đến nợ xấu bằng mô hình Logit. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 36.578 3 .000 Block 36.578 3 .000 Model 36.578 3 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 130.319a .188 .306 a. Estimtion terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 6.049 8 .642 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 138 6 95.8 no xau 19 13 40.6 Overall Percentage 85.8 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.282 .142 3.944 1 .047 .755 .597 .953 game_2 -2.236 .473 22.393 1 .000 .107 .049 .232 amount_passed -1.928 .934 4.259 1 .039 .146 .031 .676 Constant 1.813 .701 6.688 1 .010 6.131 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, amount_passed. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của cả 3 thí nghiệm khi thêm biến Tuổi và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 37.290 5 .000 Block 37.290 5 .000 Model 37.290 5 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 129.607a .191 .312 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 4.554 8 .804 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 140 4 97.2 no xau 19 13 40.6 Overall Percentage 86.9 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.302 .145 4.351 1 .037 .740 .583 .938 game_2 -2.206 .474 21.686 1 .000 .110 .051 .240 amount_passed -1.840 .974 3.569 1 .059 .159 .032 .788 age -.008 .018 .165 1 .684 .993 .963 1.023 gender -.360 .487 .545 1 .460 .698 .313 1.555 Constant 2.310 1.219 3.595 1 .058 10.079 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, amount_passed, age, gender. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2 và biến Giới tính. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 38.065 6 .000 Block 38.065 6 .000 Model 38.065 6 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 128.832a .194 .317 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 4.569 8 .802 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 140 4 97.2 no xau 19 13 40.6 Overall Percentage 86.9 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.308 .146 4.454 1 .035 .735 .578 .934 game_2 -2.172 .476 20.807 1 .000 .114 .052 .249 amount_passed -1.870 .982 3.624 1 .057 .154 .031 .776 age -.092 .096 .921 1 .337 .912 .778 1.068 gender -.343 .488 .493 1 .483 .710 .318 1.584 age_2 .001 .001 .811 1 .368 1.001 .999 1.002 Constant 4.227 2.471 2.926 1 .087 68.542 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính và Trình độ học vấn. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 39.066 7 .000 Block 39.066 7 .000 Model 39.066 7 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 127.831a .199 .325 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 5.149 8 .742 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 140 4 97.2 no xau 20 12 37.5 Overall Percentage 86.4 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.308 .147 4.371 1 .037 .735 .577 .936 game_2 -2.121 .479 19.652 1 .000 .120 .055 .263 amount_passed -1.854 .972 3.635 1 .057 .157 .032 .775 age -.123 .102 1.449 1 .229 .884 .747 1.046 gender -.303 .494 .376 1 .540 .739 .328 1.665 age_2 .001 .001 1.181 1 .277 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.222 .227 .961 1 .327 .801 .551 1.163 Constant 5.660 2.910 3.783 1 .052 287.094 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu. Kết quả hồi quy khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 45.189 11 .000 Block 45.189 11 .000 Model 45.189 11 .000 Model Summary Step 1 -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 121.708a .226 .370 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step 1 Chi-square df Sig. 13.887 8 .085 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Q1 Percentage Correct no du chuan no xau Step 1 Q1 no du chuan 139 5 96.5 no xau 19 13 40.6 Overall Percentage 86.4 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 90% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a game_1 -.337 .150 5.066 1 .024 .714 .558 .913 game_2 -2.104 .495 18.065 1 .000 .122 .054 .275 amount_passed -1.980 .988 4.013 1 .045 .138 .027 .702 age -.127 .105 1.455 1 .228 .881 .740 1.047 gender -.050 .538 .008 1 .927 .952 .393 2.306 age_2 .001 .001 1.057 1 .304 1.001 .999 1.003 edu -.330 .251 1.724 1 .189 .719 .476 1.087 living_area -.188 .527 .128 1 .721 .828 .348 1.970 work_member 1.491 1.041 2.049 1 .152 4.440 .801 24.627 loan_size -.041 .022 3.495 1 .062 .960 .926 .995 loan_term -.005 .016 .106 1 .744 .995 .969 1.021 Constant 6.168 3.125 3.896 1 .048 477.190 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: game_1, game_2, amount_passed, age, gender, age_2, edu, living_area, work_member, loan_size, loan_term. Phụ lục 5: Kết quả phân tích hồi quy mô hình Probit. Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sở thích rủi ro đến nợ xấu. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 6 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C -0.292656 0.262023 -1.116909 0.2640 GAME_1 -0.174663 0.069943 -2.497224 0.0125 McFadden R-squared 0.040069     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.380308 Akaike info criterion 0.933009     Sum squared resid 25.16630 Schwarz criterion 0.969038     Log likelihood -80.10482 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.947622     Deviance 160.2096 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 6.687404     Avg. log likelihood -0.455141 Prob(LR statistic) 0.009710 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sở thích rủi ro khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay bằng mô hình Probit. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 38 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C 3.241232 1.479419 2.190882 0.0285 GAME_1 -0.203021 0.073095 -2.777493 0.0055 AGE -0.099831 0.051831 -1.926092 0.0541 AGE^2 0.000889 0.000512 1.736582 0.0825 GENDER -0.158304 0.242833 -0.651905 0.5145 EDU -0.231593 0.110806 -2.090078 0.0366 LIVING_AREA -0.152507 0.237072 -0.643293 0.5200 WORK_MEMBER 0.558856 0.470456 1.187901 0.2349 LOAN_SIZE -0.022922 0.008011 -2.861250 0.0042 LOAN_TERM -0.004744 0.008139 -0.582888 0.5600 McFadden R-squared 0.123805     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.373886 Akaike info criterion 0.944514     Sum squared resid 23.20524 Schwarz criterion 1.124655     Log likelihood -73.11720 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.017578     Deviance 146.2344 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 20.66263     Avg. log likelihood -0.415439 Prob(LR statistic) 0.014236 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm đóng góp cho cộng đồng đến nợ xấu. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 4 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C 0.078412 0.221804 0.353521 0.7237 GAME_2 -1.336574 0.262724 -5.087372 0.0000 McFadden R-squared 0.158347     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.350748 Akaike info criterion 0.820849     Sum squared resid 21.40625 Schwarz criterion 0.856877     Log likelihood -70.23473 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.835462     Deviance 140.4695 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 26.42758     Avg. log likelihood -0.399061 Prob(LR statistic) 0.000000 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm đóng góp cho cộng đồng khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 44 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C 2.022921 1.505578 1.343618 0.1791 GAME_2 -1.260666 0.277343 -4.545513 0.0000 AGE -0.065730 0.057526 -1.142625 0.2532 AGE^2 0.000617 0.000557 1.108154 0.2678 GENDER -0.145865 0.258138 -0.565066 0.5720 EDU -0.149108 0.113766 -1.310649 0.1900 LIVING_AREA -0.143761 0.265726 -0.541012 0.5885 WORK_MEMBER 0.701647 0.456464 1.537135 0.1243 LOAN_SIZE -0.019095 0.008274 -2.307910 0.0210 LOAN_TERM 0.000262 0.008824 0.029743 0.9763 McFadden R-squared 0.207221     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.354060 Akaike info criterion 0.865412     Sum squared resid 20.80952 Schwarz criterion 1.045553     Log likelihood -66.15626 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.938476     Deviance 132.3125 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 34.58451     Avg. log likelihood -0.375888 Prob(LR statistic) 0.000071 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sự tin tưởng đến nợ xấu. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 8 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C -0.405253 0.211742 -1.913902 0.0556 AMOUNT_PASS -1.295582 0.502077 -2.580445 0.0099 McFadden R-squared 0.050678     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.378049 Akaike info criterion 0.922949     Sum squared resid 24.86823 Schwarz criterion 0.958978     Log likelihood -79.21954 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.937562     Deviance 158.4391 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 8.457960     Avg. log likelihood -0.450111 Prob(LR statistic) 0.003634 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 Kết quả hồi quy tác động của thí nghiệm sự tin tưởng khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 35 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C 3.117044 1.459221 2.136101 0.0327 AMOUNT_PASS -1.349107 0.510459 -2.642930 0.0082 AGE -0.108013 0.055058 -1.961798 0.0498 AGE^2 0.000963 0.000548 1.757590 0.0788 GENDER 0.056060 0.256729 0.218362 0.8271 EDU -0.222948 0.113543 -1.963556 0.0496 LIVING_AREA -0.046221 0.235406 -0.196344 0.8443 WORK_MEMBER 0.500936 0.445035 1.125611 0.2603 LOAN_SIZE -0.023411 0.007950 -2.944861 0.0032 LOAN_TERM -0.001437 0.007918 -0.181474 0.8560 McFadden R-squared 0.124344     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.375099 Akaike info criterion 0.944002     Sum squared resid 23.35607 Schwarz criterion 1.124143     Log likelihood -73.07217 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.017066     Deviance 146.1443 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 20.75269     Avg. log likelihood -0.415183 Prob(LR statistic) 0.013795 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 Kết quả hồi quy tác động của cả 3 thí nghiệm đến nợ xấu. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 14 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C 0.956594 0.386665 2.473959 0.0134 GAME_1 -0.150284 0.081890 -1.835208 0.0665 GAME_2 -1.286349 0.263499 -4.881803 0.0000 AMOUNT_PASS -0.975264 0.520961 -1.872047 0.0612 McFadden R-squared 0.214422     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.336352 Akaike info criterion 0.790402     Sum squared resid 19.45885 Schwarz criterion 0.862458     Log likelihood -65.55534 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.819627     Deviance 131.1107 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 35.78636     Avg. log likelihood -0.372474 Prob(LR statistic) 0.000000 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 Kết quả hồi quy tác động của cả 3 thí nghiệm khi thêm biến Tuổi, Tuổi2, Giới tính, Trình độ học vấn, Nơi sống, Tỷ lệ có việc làm, Khoản vay và Kỳ hạn vay. Dependent Variable: DEFAULT Method: ML - Binary Probit (OPG - BHHH / Marquardt steps) Sample: 1 176 Included observations: 176 Convergence achieved after 50 iterations Coefficient covariance computed using the Huber-White method Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.   C 3.737667 1.486729 2.514020 0.0119 GAME_1 -0.183777 0.083232 -2.207994 0.0272 GAME_2 -1.198339 0.280665 -4.269634 0.0000 AMOUNT_PASS -1.069280 0.531459 -2.011971 0.0442 AGE -0.082835 0.054507 -1.519709 0.1286 AGE^2 0.000684 0.000533 1.283130 0.1994 GENDER -0.001200 0.275535 -0.004354 0.9965 EDU -0.187778 0.116336 -1.614110 0.1065 LIVING_AREA -0.138077 0.273366 -0.505100 0.6135 WORK_MEMBER 0.839642 0.477343 1.758992 0.0786 LOAN_SIZE -0.023525 0.008510 -2.764491 0.0057 LOAN_TERM -0.001642 0.009205 -0.178360 0.8584 McFadden R-squared 0.269894     Mean dependent var 0.181818 S.D. dependent var 0.386795     S.E. of regression 0.337329 Akaike info criterion 0.828707     Sum squared resid 18.66175 Schwarz criterion 1.044877     Log likelihood -60.92624 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.916384     Deviance 121.8525 Restr. deviance 166.8970     Restr. log likelihood -83.44852 LR statistic 45.04456     Avg. log likelihood -0.346172 Prob(LR statistic) 0.000005 Obs with Dep=0 144      Total obs 176 Obs with Dep=1 32 vvv&vvv Phụ lục 6: Bản đồ các tỉnh miền Tây và các tỉnh khảo sát thí nghiệm (Các tỉnh có dấu sao màu xanh). Phụ lục 7: Bản đồ chi tiết vùng ĐBSCL. Phụ lục 8: Số liệu chủ yếu về ĐBSCL. (Nguồn: Tổng hợp của tác giả từ niên giám thống kê năm 2016). Diện tích (Km2) Dân số ( Nghìn người) Mật độ dân số (Người /km2) Thu nhập BQ tháng (Nghìn đồng) Chi tiêu BQ tháng (Nghìn đồng) Tỷ lệ hộ nghèo (%) Cả nước 331.230,8 92.695,1 280 3.049 2.016 5,8 ĐBSCL 40.816,3 17.660,7 433 2.798 1.741 5,2 6 tỉnh nghiên cứu 18.896 8.093,8 499 2.554 - - Long An 4.494,8 1.490,6 332 3.225 - 4,2 Tiền Giang 2.510,5 1.740,2 693 3.122 - 5,3 Bến Tre 2.394,6 1.265,2 528 2.442 - 7,1 Trà Vinh 2.358,2 1.040,5 441 2.213 - 10,0 Vĩnh Long 1.525,6 1.048,6 687 2.372 - 4,3 Đồng Tháp 3.384,0 1.687,3 499 2.678 - 5,8 An Giang 3.536,7 2.159,9 611 2.909 - 2,7 Kiên Giang 6.348,7 1.776,7 280 3.001 - 2,7 Cần Thơ 1.439,2 1.257,9 874 3.347 - 1,7 Hậu Giang 1.621,8 772,5 476 2.601 - 7,7 Sóc Trăng 3.311,9 1.312,5 396 2.536 - 8,7 Bạc Liêu 2.669,1 886,2 332 2.312 - 6,9 Cà Mau 5.221,2 1.222,6 234 2.364 - 4,0 Phụ lục 9: Một số hình ảnh của khách hàng tại các địa bàn khảo sát. Hình khách hàng tại Bến Tre Hình khách hàng tại Hậu Giang Hình khách hàng tại Kiên Giang Hình khách hàng tại Long An Hình khách hàng tại Tiền Giang vvv&vvv Hình khách hàng tại Vĩnh Long