Luận án Xác định quy mô đất tối ưu trong sản xuất nông nghiệp của người dân đồng bằng sông Cửu Long
Tác giả sử dụng phương pháp hồi quy đa biến để phân tích mối quan hệ giữa quy mô đất và hiệu quả hoạt động sản xuất được thể hiện qua năm khía cạnh đo lường khác nhau gồm năng suất đất, năng suất lao động, năng suất nhân tố tổng hợp, hiệu quả đồng vốn và hiệu quả kinh tế. Trong đó, bốn thước đo đầu tiên thể hiện HQHĐSX được sử dụng phương pháp ước lượng từng phần (đầu tiên tính toán hoặc ước lượng từng thước đo, sau đó mới ước lượng mối quan hệ giữa quy mô với từng thước đo cụ thể), riêng thước đo về hiệu quả kinh tế thì luận án sử dụng phương pháp ước lượng đồng thời (ước lượng một bước) để xác định mối quan hệ giữa quy mô và hiệu quả kinh tế bởi những ưu điểm của nó so với phương pháp ước lượng hai bước (như nhiều nghiên cứu trước đây sử dụng). Luận án tiến hành phân tích mối quan hệ giữa quy mô và HQHĐSX để làm cơ sở xác định ngưỡng quy mô tối ưu nhằm tối đa hóa hiệu quả hoạt động sản xuất. Kết quả phân tích cho thấy, mô hình có ý nghĩa thống kê cao và xác định được mối quan hệ phi tuyến có dạng Ungược giữa quy mô và hiệu quả hoạt động sản xuất được đo lường thông qua năng suất nhân tố tổng hợp trong ba vụ canh tác lúa cũng như cả năm. Từ đó, xác định được ngưỡng quy mô tối ưu là 9,7 ha (trong đó, vụ thu đông là 9,3 ha; vụ đông xuân là 9,8 ha và vụ hè thu là 10 ha) sẽ mang lại hiệu quả hoạt động
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regressionNumberofobs=498
>amnienkcruongtaphuan,robust
.reghqdvqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthueldgdangiangdongthaptvonth
155
2.3.2.Hiệuquảđồngvốnròng
*Vụthuđông
_cons1.096655.11746279.340.000.86585291.327457
taphuan.042758.02770511.540.123-.0116798.0971958
kcruong.0007862.00127350.620.537-.0017161.0032886
thamnien-.0031234.0012793-2.440.015-.005637-.0006097
tvontd-.0350484.0038113-9.200.000-.0425372-.0275596
dongthap.0804362.04234051.900.058-.0027585.163631
angiang.1096352.04473522.450.015.021735.1975354
ldgdtd-.0012349.0012506-0.990.324-.0036922.0012225
ldthuetd-.0019995.0010335-1.930.054-.0040303.0000312
somanh.0906982.04597791.970.049.0003563.1810402
tnkhac.0005778.00064740.890.373-.0006943.0018498
tdhvch.0030049.00398670.750.451-.0048285.0108383
nuch.0615311.04618571.330.183-.029219.1522813
qmld.0106092.01682190.630.529-.0224441.0436625
qmdatsq-.0017822.0015523-1.150.251-.0048323.0012678
qmdat.0051479.01631620.320.753-.0269118.0372075
hqdvrtdCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total55.8347698497.112343601RootMSE=.3001
AdjR-squared=0.1983
Residual43.4093647482.090060923R-squared=0.2225
Model12.425405215.828360344Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=9.20
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
>tvontdthamnienkcruongtaphuan
.reghqdvrtdqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthuetdldgdtdangiangdongthap
Prob>chi2=0.0000
chi2(1)=50.49
Variables:fittedvaluesofhqdvrtd
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
.hettest
_cons1.096655.12335238.890.000.85428031.33903
taphuan.042758.0271091.580.115-.0105084.0960243
kcruong.0007862.00122470.640.521-.0016201.0031926
thamnien-.0031234.0012152-2.570.010-.0055112-.0007356
tvontd-.0350484.0038754-9.040.000-.0426632-.0274336
dongthap.0804362.04787531.680.094-.0136338.1745062
angiang.1096352.05142962.130.034.0085813.2106891
ldgdtd-.0012349.0010291-1.200.231-.0032568.0007871
ldthuetd-.0019995.0007014-2.850.005-.0033776-.0006214
somanh.0906982.04811831.880.060-.0038493.1852458
tnkhac.0005778.00070830.820.415-.0008139.0019695
tdhvch.0030049.0039370.760.446-.0047309.0107408
nuch.0615311.05061441.220.225-.0379209.1609832
qmld.0106092.01849440.570.566-.0257304.0469488
qmdatsq-.0017822.0011311-1.580.116-.0040048.0004404
qmdat.0051479.01454210.350.723-.0234259.0337217
hqdvrtdCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=.3001
R-squared=0.2225
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=8.27
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
>tvontdthamnienkcruongtaphuan,robust
.reghqdvrtdqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthuetdldgdtdangiangdongthap
156
*Vụđôngxuân
_cons1.705617.129436313.180.0001.4512881.959946
taphuan-.0130599.0303009-0.430.667-.072598.0464782
kcruong-.0028631.0014036-2.040.042-.005621-.0001051
thamnien-.0027832.0014037-1.980.048-.0055414-.000025
tvondx-.0515939.0040082-12.870.000-.0594696-.0437182
dongthap.1830986.04629943.950.000.092125.2740721
angiang.2845034.04878265.830.000.1886505.3803563
ldgddx.0025845.001581.640.103-.00052.005689
ldthuedx.0012936.00173490.750.456-.0021153.0047024
somanh-.0148716.0504903-0.290.768-.1140798.0843366
tnkhac.0000121.00070950.020.986-.001382.0014062
tdhvch.004967.00439871.130.259-.003676.0136099
nuch.0320595.05052010.630.526-.0672074.1313264
qmld-.0252242.0186249-1.350.176-.0618202.0113717
qmdatsq-.0020938.0017078-1.230.221-.0054494.0012619
qmdat.024206.01794511.350.178-.0110543.0594664
hqdvrdxCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total81.2003991497.163381085RootMSE=.32959
AdjR-squared=0.3351
Residual52.358329482.108627238R-squared=0.3552
Model28.8420702151.92280468Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=17.70
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
>tvondxthamnienkcruongtaphuan
.reghqdvrdxqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthuedxldgddxangiangdongthap
Prob>chi2=0.0000
chi2(1)=30.30
Variables:fittedvaluesofhqdvrdx
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
.hettest
_cons1.705617.133358112.790.0001.4435821.967652
taphuan-.0130599.0299528-0.440.663-.0719141.0457944
kcruong-.0028631.0009607-2.980.003-.0047507-.0009754
thamnien-.0027832.0014442-1.930.055-.005621.0000546
tvondx-.0515939.003838-13.440.000-.0591351-.0440527
dongthap.1830986.04373324.190.000.0971673.2690298
angiang.2845034.04771585.960.000.1907467.3782601
ldgddx.0025845.00137811.880.061-.0001234.0052923
ldthuedx.0012936.00157610.820.412-.0018033.0043904
somanh-.0148716.0548949-0.270.787-.1227344.0929912
tnkhac.0000121.00073760.020.987-.0014372.0014615
tdhvch.004967.00430561.150.249-.003493.0134269
nuch.0320595.04594690.700.486-.0582215.1223404
qmld-.0252242.0179451-1.410.160-.0604845.010036
qmdatsq-.0020938.0012445-1.680.093-.0045391.0003515
qmdat.024206.01712821.410.158-.0094492.0578612
hqdvrdxCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=.32959
R-squared=0.3552
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=16.59
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
>tvondxthamnienkcruongtaphuan,robust
.reghqdvrdxqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthuedxldgddxangiangdongthap
157
*Vụhèthu
_cons1.151701.110134110.460.000.93529921.368104
taphuan-.0138211.0260469-0.530.596-.0650006.0373583
kcruong-.000452.0011956-0.380.706-.0028012.0018972
thamnien-.0025919.0012031-2.150.032-.0049558-.000228
tvonht-.0323293.0036792-8.790.000-.0395584-.0251001
dongthap.0756225.03967561.910.057-.0023361.1535811
angiang.1269214.04202313.020.003.0443504.2094924
ldgdht.0002325.00140960.160.869-.0025371.0030022
ldthueht-.0007117.0016897-0.420.674-.0040318.0026083
somanh-.000048.0432947-0.000.999-.0851177.0850217
tnkhac-.0004255.0006072-0.700.484-.0016186.0007675
tdhvch.004709.00377951.250.213-.0027173.0121353
nuch.0776833.04343081.790.074-.0076539.1630204
qmld.013922.01582750.880.380-.0171774.0450214
qmdatsq.0002733.00146590.190.852-.0026071.0031536
qmdat-.0198188.0154133-1.290.199-.0501045.0104668
hqdvrhtCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total48.03171497.09664328RootMSE=.28283
AdjR-squared=0.1723
Residual38.5552244482.079990092R-squared=0.1973
Model9.4764855315.631765702Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=7.90
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
>tvonhtthamnienkcruongtaphuan
.reghqdvrhtqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthuehtldgdhtangiangdongthap
Prob>chi2=0.0000
chi2(1)=38.79
Variables:fittedvaluesofhqdvrht
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
.hettest
_cons1.151701.11556959.970.000.92461921.378784
taphuan-.0138211.0267356-0.520.605-.0663539.0387116
kcruong-.000452.0010322-0.440.662-.0024802.0015763
thamnien-.0025919.0012036-2.150.032-.0049569-.000227
tvonht-.0323293.0037333-8.660.000-.0396649-.0249937
dongthap.0756225.04238311.780.075-.007656.1589011
angiang.1269214.04556782.790.006.0373854.2164574
ldgdht.0002325.00131580.180.860-.0023528.0028179
ldthueht-.0007117.001601-0.440.657-.0038575.002434
somanh-.000048.0439897-0.000.999-.0864833.0863873
tnkhac-.0004255.00056-0.760.448-.0015259.0006749
tdhvch.004709.00380331.240.216-.0027641.0121821
nuch.0776833.04127471.880.060-.0034172.1587838
qmld.013922.016970.820.412-.0194223.0472663
qmdatsq.0002733.00099010.280.783-.0016722.0022188
qmdat-.0198188.0137626-1.440.151-.0468609.0072232
hqdvrhtCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=.28283
R-squared=0.1973
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=8.48
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
>tvonhtthamnienkcruongtaphuan,robust
.reghqdvrhtqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthuehtldgdhtangiangdongthap
158
*Cảnăm
_cons3.625424.337084410.760.0002.9630884.287761
taphuan.0171854.0710160.240.809-.1223537.1567245
kcruong-.0032031.0032736-0.980.328-.0096354.0032293
thamnien-.0082628.0032867-2.510.012-.0147208-.0018047
tvon-.0356534.0040349-8.840.000-.0435817-.0277252
dongthap.3439469.10843333.170.002.1308865.5570074
angiang.5101049.11456794.450.000.2849906.7352191
ldgd-.0049255.0013897-3.540.000-.007656-.002195
ldthue-.0011463.0016964-0.680.500-.0044795.002187
somanh.1025187.1178940.870.385-.129131.3341683
tnkhac.0002781.00166160.170.867-.0029867.0035428
tdhvch.0099533.01026920.970.333-.0102246.0301313
nuch.1550876.11875161.310.192-.0782473.3884224
qmld.0023383.04344450.050.957-.0830258.0877024
qmdatsq-.0032339.0040022-0.810.419-.0110979.00463
qmdat.0025105.0420560.060.952-.0801253.0851462
hqdvrCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total366.72633497.737879939RootMSE=.77255
AdjR-squared=0.1912
Residual287.673053482.596832061R-squared=0.2156
Model79.0532764155.27021843Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=8.83
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
>hamnienkcruongtaphuan
.reghqdvrqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthueldgdangiangdongthaptvont
Prob>chi2=0.0008
chi2(1)=11.34
Variables:fittedvaluesofhqdvr
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
.hettest
_cons3.625424.337747110.730.0002.9617864.289063
taphuan.0171854.07072330.240.808-.1217786.1561494
kcruong-.0032031.0028539-1.120.262-.0088106.0024045
thamnien-.0082628.0033211-2.490.013-.0147883-.0017372
tvon-.0356534.0039684-8.980.000-.043451-.0278559
dongthap.3439469.12143362.830.005.1053422.5825516
angiang.5101049.13088223.900.000.2529346.7672751
ldgd-.0049255.0012401-3.970.000-.0073622-.0024888
ldthue-.0011463.0016674-0.690.492-.0044225.0021299
somanh.1025187.13076140.780.433-.1544142.3594515
tnkhac.0002781.00166270.170.867-.0029889.003545
tdhvch.0099533.01031670.960.335-.010318.0302246
nuch.1550876.1232681.260.209-.0871215.3972967
qmld.0023383.04757130.050.961-.0911345.0958111
qmdatsq-.0032339.0028004-1.150.249-.0087365.0022686
qmdat.0025105.03803940.070.947-.0722331.0772541
hqdvrCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=.77255
R-squared=0.2156
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=7.67
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
>hamnienkcruongtaphuan,robust
.reghqdvrqmdatqmdatsqqmldnuchtdhvchtnkhacsomanhldthueldgdangiangdongthaptvont
159
2.4.Hiệuquảkinhtế
*Vụthuđông
lambda.9425685.036137226.080.000.87174091.013396
sigma_v.1626208.006361625.560.000.1506184.1755797
sigma_u.1532813.03365934.550.000.0996718.2357251
_cons-3.632668.0782379-46.430.000-3.786011-3.479324
Vsigma
_cons-3.750961.4391831-8.540.000-4.611744-2.890178
Usigma
_cons.52734591.1474120.460.646-1.7215412.776233
taphuan-.1429434.1019497-1.400.161-.3427611.0568742
kcruong.0019735.00309810.640.524-.0040986.0080456
thamnien.0069989.00424451.650.099-.0013201.0153179
tvontd.0604389.01489934.060.000.0312368.089641
dongthap.1879405.18462381.020.309-.1739155.5497964
angiang.2648415.21198821.250.212-.1506476.6803307
ldgdtd-.0206793.0056365-3.670.000-.0317267-.0096319
ldthuetd-.0176207.0090021-1.960.050-.0352644.000023
somanh-2.0357211.020207-2.000.046-4.03529-.0361518
tnkhac-.002785.0024747-1.130.260-.0076353.0020654
tdhvch-.020854.0146211-1.430.154-.049511.0078029
nuch-.1821361.1692403-1.080.282-.5138411.1495688
qmld.0800656.04866631.650.100-.0153186.1754498
qmdatsq.0195051.00900572.170.030.0018542.0371559
qmdat-.1637153.1058025-1.550.122-.3710843.0436537
Mu
_cons1.887731.27696366.820.0001.3448922.43057
th.0178632.01979670.900.367-.0209376.0566641
lnf_td.0075084.00933840.800.421-.0107946.0258113
lnl_td.0235907.01258681.870.061-.001079.0482603
lnt_td-.2933249.029432-9.970.000-.3510105-.2356393
lnpg_td-.0797877.0267677-2.980.003-.1322514-.027324
lnpk_td-.0014844.002594-0.570.567-.0065685.0035997
lnpp_td-.0004676.0046689-0.100.920-.0096183.0086832
lnpn_td-.1266266.0290639-4.360.000-.1835908-.0696625
Frontier
Lnπ_TDCoef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]
Loglikelihood=179.8257
Prob>chi2=0.0000
Waldchi2(8)=135.86
Stoc.frontiernormal/tnormalmodelNumberofobs=498
160
*Vụđôngxuân
lambda5.116898.0132547386.040.0005.0909195.142877
sigma_v.0370681.00722355.130.000.0253003.0543094
sigma_u.1896735.012032915.760.000.1674967.2147864
_cons-6.589999.3897431-16.910.000-7.353882-5.826117
Vsigma
_cons-3.324903.12688-26.210.000-3.573583-3.076222
Usigma
_cons-.5372198.1283218-4.190.000-.7887259-.2857137
taphuan-.0145947.0336889-0.430.665-.0806237.0514343
kcruong.0026386.0010182.590.010.0006433.0046338
thamnien.0022061.0011171.980.048.0000169.0043954
tvondx.037362.00435498.580.000.0288265.0458976
dongthap-.1635382.0360828-4.530.000-.2342593-.0928171
angiang-.1977102.0391478-5.050.000-.2744385-.1209819
ldgddx-.0071021.0015395-4.610.000-.0101194-.0040848
ldthuedx-.0072291.0019846-3.640.000-.0111189-.0033393
somanh.0600732.03916491.530.125-.0166886.1368349
tnkhac-.0003877.0005904-0.660.511-.0015449.0007694
tdhvch-.006288.0035346-1.780.075-.0132157.0006398
nuch-.0343212.0396102-0.870.386-.1119558.0433133
qmld.02215.01405871.580.115-.0054046.0497046
qmdatsq.0016351.00140241.170.244-.0011135.0043838
qmdat-.0280646.0151896-1.850.065-.0578356.0017064
Mu
_cons.9100517.21035614.330.000.49776141.322342
th-.0054415.0142636-0.380.703-.0333977.0225147
lnf_dx.0094016.0042152.230.026.0011404.0176629
lnl_dx.0029708.00943340.310.753-.0155184.02146
lnt_dx-.1354091.0217601-6.220.000-.1780581-.0927601
lnpg_dx-.0555473.020523-2.710.007-.0957716-.015323
lnpk_dx-.0012292.0016688-0.740.461-.0045.0020416
lnpp_dx.0001073.00260360.040.967-.0049956.0052102
lnpn_dx-.017798.0090036-1.980.048-.0354447-.0001513
Frontier
Lnπ_DXCoef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]
Loglikelihood=293.6040
Prob>chi2=0.0000
Waldchi2(8)=56.68
Stoc.frontiernormal/tnormalmodelNumberofobs=498
161
*Vụhèthu
lambda1203113.00779641.5e+080.00012031131203113
sigma_v1.52e-079.96e-060.020.9881.78e-631.29e+49
sigma_u.1823455.007796423.390.000.1676876.1982847
_cons-31.40455131.4147-0.240.811-288.9726226.1635
Vsigma
_cons-3.403704.0855122-39.800.000-3.571305-3.236103
Usigma
_cons-.1176307.0844814-1.390.164-.2832113.0479498
taphuan-.0137644.0213754-0.640.520-.0556594.0281306
kcruong.0000268.00086310.030.975-.0016649.0017184
thamnien.0020016.00086772.310.021.0003009.0037023
tvonht.021854.00272558.020.000.0165122.0271958
dongthap-.0594311.0283292-2.100.036-.1149553-.003907
angiang-.0802936.0301264-2.670.008-.1393403-.021247
ldgdht-.0078929.0015023-5.250.000-.0108373-.0049485
ldthueht-.0007503.001208-0.620.535-.0031179.0016174
somanh.0190083.03032470.630.531-.0404271.0784437
tnkhac.0002294.00043710.520.600-.0006274.0010862
tdhvch-.0041267.0027574-1.500.135-.0095312.0012778
nuch-.0754745.033186-2.270.023-.1405179-.0104311
qmld-.0013458.0113586-0.120.906-.0236082.0209166
qmdatsq-.000038.0010038-0.040.970-.0020053.0019294
qmdat.0121363.01086181.120.264-.0091526.0334251
Mu
_cons1.148934.....
th-.0116275.0082756-1.410.160-.0278474.0045923
lnf_ht-.004903.0070494-0.700.487-.0187196.0089136
lnl_ht.0190621.000265371.850.000.0185421.0195821
lnt_ht-.1669087.0029678-56.240.000-.1727254-.161092
lnpg_ht-.1260761.0284677-4.430.000-.1818718-.0702803
lnpk_ht-.0026053.0025922-1.010.315-.0076859.0024753
lnpp_ht.0001492.00059730.250.803-.0010215.0013199
lnpn_ht.0070285.00091657.670.000.0052322.0088248
Frontier
Lnπ_HTCoef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]
Loglikelihood=218.4231
Prob>chi2=0.0000
Waldchi2(8)=1.15e+09
Stoc.frontiernormal/tnormalmodelNumberofobs=498
162
*Cảnăm
lambda1.06e+07.01649086.4e+080.0001.06e+071.06e+07
sigma_v3.92e-088.76e-060.000.9962.6e-1985.9e+182
sigma_u.4151193.016490725.170.000.3840243.4487322
_cons-34.10812446.851-0.080.939-909.92841.7038
Vsigma
_cons-1.758378.0794506-22.130.000-1.914099-1.602658
Usigma
_cons-.3168652.2020742-1.570.117-.7129234.0791929
taphuan-.1921862.0595297-3.230.001-.3088624-.0755101
kcruong.001812.00185260.980.328-.001819.005443
thamnien.005368.00190222.820.005.0016399.0090962
tvon.0213835.00241638.850.000.0166477.0261194
dongthap-.2001619.0612647-3.270.001-.3202385-.0800853
angiang-.2278391.0652929-3.490.000-.3558107-.0998674
ldgd-.006414.0013638-4.700.000-.0090871-.003741
ldthue.0010866.00096581.130.261-.0008064.0029796
somanh.0409177.06759360.610.545-.0915633.1733988
tnkhac-.0008428.0009791-0.860.389-.0027618.0010762
tdhvch-.0098917.0060509-1.630.102-.0217513.0019679
nuch-.11473.0704186-1.630.103-.2527478.0232879
qmld.0088635.02486640.360.722-.0398737.0576007
qmdatsq.0027604.0022391.230.218-.0016279.0071488
qmdat-.0171488.0240535-0.710.476-.0642929.0299952
Mu
_cons2.450272.....
th-.1369181.0353753-3.870.000-.2062525-.0675838
lnf.0047031.00976070.480.630-.0144275.0238338
lnl.0475468.002752217.280.000.0421526.052941
lnt-.1565895.0060966-25.680.000-.1685386-.1446405
lnpg-.2892805.0665413-4.350.000-.419699-.1588619
lnpk-.0001626.0022949-0.070.944-.0046606.0043354
lnpp.0001868.00079460.240.814-.0013707.0017443
lnpn-.0015473.000114-13.580.000-.0017707-.001324
Frontier
LnπCoef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]
Loglikelihood=-216.3955
Prob>chi2=0.0000
Waldchi2(8)=6.47e+09
Stoc.frontiernormal/tnormalmodelNumberofobs=498
163
2.5.Năngsuấtnhântốtổnghợp
*Vụthuđông
_cons1.987029.25641437.750.0001.4832012.490857
taphuan.056647.06047920.940.349-.0621884.1754824
kcruong.000526.00278010.190.850-.0049366.0059885
thamnien-.0095018.0027926-3.400.001-.014989-.0040146
tvontd.0121166.00831981.460.146-.004231.0284643
dongthap.2727303.09242722.950.003.0911203.4543403
angiang.2598138.09765592.660.008.06793.4516976
ldgdtd-.0014447.0027301-0.530.597-.006809.0039196
ldthuetd-.0034464.0022561-1.530.127-.0078794.0009866
somanh.1716565.10036791.710.088-.0255561.3688691
tnkhac.001017.00141320.720.472-.0017599.0037938
tdhvch-.000826.0087027-0.090.924-.017926.016274
nuch.1106869.10082131.100.273-.0874167.3087906
qmld.0192741.03672150.520.600-.0528799.091428
qmdatsq-.034966.0033885-10.320.000-.0416241-.0283079
qmdat.6535886.035617318.350.000.5836041.723573
tfptdCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total465.065593497.93574566RootMSE=.65511
AdjR-squared=0.5414
Residual206.85869482.429167406R-squared=0.5552
Model258.2069031517.2137936Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=40.11
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
Prob>chi2=0.0000
chi2(1)=33.63
Variables:fittedvaluesoftfptd
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
_cons1.987029.26476557.500.0001.4667912.507266
taphuan.056647.0601930.940.347-.061626.17492
kcruong.000526.00222530.240.813-.0038465.0048985
thamnien-.0095018.0028283-3.360.001-.0150592-.0039444
tvontd.0121166.00848811.430.154-.0045617.0287949
dongthap.2727303.0941182.900.004.0877981.4576624
angiang.2598138.11126122.340.020.0411969.4784307
ldgdtd-.0014447.0025481-0.570.571-.0064514.003562
ldthuetd-.0034464.0018853-1.830.068-.0071509.0002581
somanh.1716565.08834091.940.053-.0019243.3452374
tnkhac.001017.00134630.760.450-.0016285.0036624
tdhvch-.000826.008259-0.100.920-.017054.015402
nuch.1106869.1062041.040.298-.0979931.3193669
qmld.0192741.03783640.510.611-.0550705.0936186
qmdatsq-.034966.0048408-7.220.000-.0444777-.0254543
qmdat.6535886.043158815.140.000.5687859.7383912
tfptdCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=.65511
R-squared=0.5552
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=34.19
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
164
*Đôngxuân
_cons5.051783.452203811.170.0004.1632495.940318
taphuan-.029607.1058605-0.280.780-.2376121.1783981
kcruong-.0086013.0049037-1.750.080-.0182366.001034
thamnien-.0160272.0049041-3.270.001-.0256633-.0063911
tvondx.0113933.01400320.810.416-.0161216.0389081
dongthap.8484219.16175335.250.000.53059331.166251
angiang.9682006.17043075.680.000.63332181.30308
ldgddx.0042611.00551980.770.441-.0065849.015107
ldthuedx-.0024823.0060611-0.410.682-.0143917.009427
somanh-.119564.1763952-0.680.498-.4661626.2270345
tnkhac-.0002428.0024788-0.100.922-.0051133.0046277
tdhvch.0050922.01536740.330.741-.0251031.0352875
nuch.1849084.17649951.050.295-.1618951.5317119
qmld-.0157895.0650686-0.240.808-.1436428.1120637
qmdatsq-.023131.0059664-3.880.000-.0348544-.0114077
qmdat.4503518.06269367.180.000.3271652.5735384
tfpdxCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total883.081474971.77682388RootMSE=1.1515
AdjR-squared=0.2538
Residual639.0635084821.3258579R-squared=0.2763
Model244.0179621516.2678641Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=12.27
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
Prob>chi2=0.0003
chi2(1)=12.93
Variables:fittedvaluesoftfpdx
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
_cons5.051783.446782811.310.0004.1739015.929666
taphuan-.029607.1055219-0.280.779-.2369467.1777327
kcruong-.0086013.0036865-2.330.020-.0158448-.0013578
thamnien-.0160272.0050968-3.140.002-.0260419-.0060125
tvondx.0113933.01281420.890.374-.0137853.0365718
dongthap.8484219.15241385.570.000.54894441.1479
angiang.9682006.17169765.640.000.63083241.305569
ldgddx.0042611.00538590.790.429-.0063216.0148438
ldthuedx-.0024823.0053205-0.470.641-.0129367.007972
somanh-.119564.1716716-0.700.486-.4568812.2177531
tnkhac-.0002428.0024709-0.100.922-.0050978.0046122
tdhvch.0050922.01498550.340.734-.0243527.0345371
nuch.1849084.1716051.080.282-.1522778.5220946
qmld-.0157895.0655563-0.240.810-.1446011.113022
qmdatsq-.023131.0043187-5.360.000-.0316168-.0146452
qmdat.4503518.05890137.650.000.3346168.5660868
tfpdxCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=1.1515
R-squared=0.2763
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=11.43
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
165
*Vụhèthu
_cons2.123463.24895768.530.0001.6342872.61264
taphuan-.05136.0588792-0.870.383-.1670517.0643316
kcruong-.0013486.0027026-0.500.618-.0066589.0039617
thamnien-.0089475.0027195-3.290.001-.0142911-.0036038
tvonht.0162244.00831671.950.052-.0001171.032566
dongthap.2118512.08968692.360.019.0356257.3880768
angiang.2799117.09499422.950.003.0932578.4665657
ldgdht.0058226.00318631.830.068-.0004382.0120833
ldthueht-.0046183.0038196-1.210.227-.0121234.0028867
somanh-.0101787.0978681-0.100.917-.2024796.1821221
tnkhac-.0008189.0013726-0.600.551-.0035158.001878
tdhvch.0031943.00854360.370.709-.0135929.0199816
nuch.190562.09817581.940.053-.0023433.3834674
qmld.0287029.03577820.800.423-.0415976.0990034
qmdatsq-.030775.0033137-9.290.000-.037286-.024264
qmdat.6165286.034841917.700.000.5480679.6849894
tfphtCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total450.054529497.905542312RootMSE=.63933
AdjR-squared=0.5486
Residual197.013265482.408741213R-squared=0.5622
Model253.0412641516.8694176Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=41.27
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
Prob>chi2=0.0000
chi2(1)=29.12
Variables:fittedvaluesoftfpht
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
_cons2.123463.2547928.330.0001.6228232.624104
taphuan-.05136.0590953-0.870.385-.1674763.0647563
kcruong-.0013486.0025076-0.540.591-.0062758.0035786
thamnien-.0089475.0027173-3.290.001-.0142866-.0036083
tvonht.0162244.00862371.880.061-.0007202.0331691
dongthap.2118512.09160612.310.021.0318547.3918478
angiang.2799117.10643832.630.009.0707714.4890521
ldgdht.0058226.00326741.780.075-.0005975.0122426
ldthueht-.0046183.0040821-1.130.258-.0126393.0034027
somanh-.0101787.0912315-0.110.911-.1894393.1690819
tnkhac-.0008189.0013156-0.620.534-.0034039.0017661
tdhvch.0031943.00852830.370.708-.0135628.0199515
nuch.190562.09610341.980.048.0017287.3793954
qmld.0287029.0373030.770.442-.0445937.1019995
qmdatsq-.030775.0044871-6.860.000-.0395917-.0219583
qmdat.6165286.042334314.560.000.533346.6997113
tfphtCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=.63933
R-squared=0.5622
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=37.55
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
166
*Cảnăm
_cons8.325769.91954849.050.0006.51895110.13259
taphuan-.0119148.1910624-0.060.950-.3873329.3635034
kcruong-.0099877.0088148-1.130.258-.0273079.0073326
thamnien-.034792.0088439-3.930.000-.0521694-.0174146
tvon.0241854.01087932.220.027.0028088.0455621
dongthap1.297871.29173654.450.000.72463871.871103
angiang1.46952.3082884.770.000.86376522.075274
ldgd.0048536.00396971.220.222-.0029464.0126537
ldthue-.0043962.004538-0.970.333-.013313.0045206
somanh.0689751.3172870.220.828-.5544615.6924117
tnkhac.0000229.00447020.010.996-.0087607.0088064
tdhvch.0061587.02766440.220.824-.0481991.0605165
nuch.4793862.31943551.500.134-.14827181.107044
qmld.0274354.11677220.230.814-.2020102.2568809
qmdatsq-.0889145.0107654-8.260.000-.1100674-.0677615
qmdat1.719587.113092315.210.0001.4973721.941801
tfpCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Total4240.294634978.53177995RootMSE=2.0788
AdjR-squared=0.4935
Residual2082.921714824.32141434R-squared=0.5088
Model2157.3729215143.824861Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=33.28
SourceSSdfMSNumberofobs=498
Prob>chi2=0.0005
chi2(1)=11.95
Variables:fittedvaluesoftfp
Ho:Constantvariance
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisbergtestforheteroskedasticity
_cons8.325769.99268838.390.0006.37523810.2763
taphuan-.0119148.191018-0.060.950-.3872456.3634161
kcruong-.0099877.007345-1.360.175-.0244198.0044445
thamnien-.034792.0091493-3.800.000-.0527694-.0168146
tvon.0241854.01132772.140.033.0019277.0464431
dongthap1.297871.30545864.250.000.6976761.898066
angiang1.46952.35021384.200.000.78138532.157654
ldgd.0048536.0040851.190.235-.003173.0128803
ldthue-.0043962.0045675-0.960.336-.0133709.0045785
somanh.0689751.31827810.220.829-.5564088.694359
tnkhac.0000229.00420890.010.996-.0082472.0082929
tdhvch.0061587.02695030.230.819-.0467959.0591133
nuch.4793862.34333011.400.163-.19522241.153995
qmld.0274354.12641710.220.828-.2209613.2758321
qmdatsq-.0889145.0115713-7.680.000-.1116509-.066178
qmdat1.719587.122367114.050.0001.4791481.960025
tfpCoef.Std.Err.tP>|t|[95%Conf.Interval]
Robust
RootMSE=2.0788
R-squared=0.5088
Prob>F=0.0000
F(15,482)=29.81
LinearregressionNumberofobs=498
Các file đính kèm theo tài liệu này:
luan_an_xac_dinh_quy_mo_dat_toi_uu_trong_san_xuat_nong_nghie.pdf- Tom tat LATS - LanDuyen - EN.pdf
- Tom tat LATS - LanDuyen - VI.pdf
Trang thong tin luan an-LanDuyen-EN.docx- Trang thong tin luan an-LanDuyen-VI.docx
