Microcredit and welfare of the rural households in Vietnam

38 -0.16 Extension Visit 0.3746*** 3.09 5,509 1.15 472.6* 1.96 Information 0.1194 1.27 -1,719 -0.45 230.8 1.18 Education -0.0194 -1.60 341.5 0.51 -40.26* -1.89 Age 0.0015 0.41 309.5 1.40 -0.155 -0.03 Marital Status -0.1105 -0.60 15,530* 1.79 319.7 0.92 Gender 0.1674 0.99 -2,172 -0.31 -237.8 -0.62 Ethnicity 0.2828** 1.97 -6,371 -0.93 535.7** 2.01 Household Size -0.0105 -0.32 -1,807 -0.99 -47.09 -0.81 Work-age member 0.0044 0.11 4,678 1.64 116.3* 1.69 Agricultural Labor 0.0564 1.30 3,535 1.37 168.5** 2.18 Business Help 0.0772 0.87 2,728 0.66 337.3* 1.86 Oranization 0.0043 0.61 454.8 1.55 24.73** 2.18 National Program 0.0385 0.46 -11,594* -1.96 -249.6** -2.01 Permanent Market -0.2380** -2.49 16,138* 1.71 108.6 0.61 Agri-Development -0.0312 -0.86 2,184* 1.70 -19.70 -0.23 Irrigation Program 0.0633 1.32 753.6 0.44 117.4 1.50 Microcredit*Production asset 0.0178 1.14 -251.1 -1.37 5.215 1.45 Microcredit*Distance 0.0159 0.40 767.6 0.86 51.30 0.43 Microcredit*Market -0.1125 -0.46 -12,662 -1.06 -416.7 -0.92 Mekong Delta River is based Red River Delta 1.3680*** 7.75 - 188,494* -1.91 -878.3* -1.94 North East 1.7224*** 8.20 -76,176 -1.89 -267.7 -0.53 North West -0.0263 -0.13 -31,111* -1.76 -1,061* -1.75 North Central 2.2199*** 5.49 -61,281* -1.84 -195.1 -0.39 South Cetral Coast 0.4435*** 2.75 -77,532* -1.89 -1,154** -2.49 Central Highlands 0.6716*** 3.77 -40,804* -1.86 -731.4 -1.06 Constant 0.1151 0.34 -79,922* -1.70 43.11 0.05 SIGMA 9,093*** 3.81 2,774*** 7.13 Obs 1,920 1,586 1,920 Log-L -706 -12,422 -15,090 χ2 test Double-Hurdle versus Tobit, λ = 3924 > χ2(38) = 61.16 208 APPENDIX 5.11 Impact of microcredit on diversifying income sources Other Crops Livestock Self-Employment Variable PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT Coef t-stat Coef t-stat Coef t-stat Microcredit 0.0498 0.42 0.3249** 2.46 0.2669** 2.45 Non-Microcredit 0.0527 0.70 0.1877** 2.29 0.07 0.94 Poverty status -0.0354 -0.37 -0.2302** -2.28 -0.2753*** -2.95 Savings 0.0004 0.82 0.0016** 2.56 0.0030*** 4.98 Production Asset -0.0006 -0.69 -0.0022** -2.44 0.0055 1.52 Durable Asset 0.0007 1.15 0.0011* 1.69 0.0015* 1.83 Remittance 0.002 1.05 -0.0042** -2.47 -0.0047* -1.74 Livestock 5.8099*** 3.46 -0.0045* -1.84 Wage Income -0.0018** -2.32 -0.0033*** -3.46 -0.0089*** -6.02 Non-Farm -0.3363*** -4.08 -0.3938*** -4.35 Other Crop 0.5586*** 6.84 -0.3155*** -4.05 Improved seeds 0.017 0.17 -0.0425 -0.41 -0.1611* -1.77 Irrigated Land -1.1297*** -4.30 -0.042 -0.58 -0.1270* -1.73 Cultivation Land 1.1703*** 4.45 -0.0446 -0.69 0.0579 1.03 Distance 0.0157 1.23 0.0129 1.16 -0.0163 -1.34 Extension Visit 0.0848 0.84 -0.0624 -0.61 -0.0936 -0.92 Information 0.2097** 2.51 0.2336*** 2.71 -0.1791** -2.15 Education 0.0089 0.80 0.0113 0.97 0.0206* 1.91 Age -0.001 -0.34 -0.0024 -0.72 -0.005 -1.56 Marital Status -0.1667 -1.15 -0.1174 -0.77 0.3067** 2.05 Gender 0.1681 1.21 0.0228 0.16 -0.3054** -2.20 Ethnicity -0.2015 -1.51 -0.2428* -1.80 0.4542*** 3.47 Household Size 0.0343 1.12 0.001 0.03 0.1349*** 4.96 Work-age member -0.0313 -0.89 0.0308 0.81 0.0596* 1.65 Agricultural Labor 0.0831** 2.04 0.1185*** 2.94 -0.1520*** -3.99 Business Help 0.1536* 1.96 0.2175** 2.56 0.1774** 2.34 Organization 0.0119** 1.98 0.0115* 1.78 0.0178*** 2.92 National Program 0.0756 1.07 0.021 0.27 -0.1324* -1.91 Permanent Market -0.0483 -0.60 0.0059 0.07 0.3445*** 4.42 Agri-Development 0.0378 1.14 -0.0075 -0.21 -0.022 -0.62 Irrigation Program -0.0005 -0.01 0.0113 0.21 0.0312 0.84 Region Dummies Mekong Delta River is Based Red River Delta -0.7824*** -4.88 0.5142*** 3.38 0.6012*** 3.28 North East 0.1349 0.78 1.4672*** 8.67 0.0753 0.40 North West -0.305 -1.43 1.7498*** 7.63 0.7555*** 3.66 North Central -0.026 -0.13 2.2399*** 7.62 0.1627 0.75 South Central Coast -0.8019*** -5.05 0.6631*** 4.28 0.2295 1.23 entral Highlands 0.5435*** 2.82 0.5310*** 3.16 -0.3758* -1.89 Constant 0.2525 0.84 -0.5439* -1.76 -1.5283*** -4.98 SIGMA Obs 2438 2438 2438 Log–L -977.1 -844.3 -964.6 Note: *, ** and *** : Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. 209 APPENDIX 5.12 Variables used for Analyzing Impact of Microcredit on Adoption Variables Description Expected Sign Dependent Variables Adoption = 1 if farmer adopts any modern varieties, 0 otherwise Adoption Intensity Expenditure on modern varieties (Thousand Dong) Explanatory Variables Microcredit =1 if borrower, 0 otherwise (+) Non-Microcredit =1 if borrower, 0 otherwise (+) Poverty status =1 of poor household, 0 otherwise (-) Livestock Value of livestock (Million Dong) (+) / (-) Production Asset Value of production assets (Million Dong) (+) Durable Asset Value of durable asset (Million Dong) (+) Savings Value of savings (Million Dong) (+) Remittance Value of remittance (Million Dong) (+) Irrigated Land Area of irrigated cultivated Plot (Hectare) (+) Total Land Total area of cultivated Land (Hectare) (+) / (-) Wage Income Value of wage income (Million Dong) (+) / (-) Non-farm =1 if farmers involve in non-farm (non-wage) activities, 0=otherwise) (+) / (-) Other Crop =1 if farmers plant any other (non-rice) crops, 0 otherwise (-) Household Size Number of HH members (+) Agricultural Labor Number of members actively involving in agricultural activities (+) Working-age member Number of working-members (15-60 years old) (+) Extension Visit =1 if Farmer is visit by agricultural extension staff, 0 otherwise (+) Distance Distance from farmer’s house to main road (kilometers) (-) Information =1 if farmer receives any seed information, 0 otherwise) (+) Education Education level of HHH (Grade finished) (+) Age Age of household head (Number of Years) (+) Marital Status =1 if married HHH, 0 otherwise (+) Ethnicity =1 if ethnicity is Kinh (main ethnicity), 0 otherwise (+) Business Help =1 if HH has business support, 0 otherwise) (+) Organization Number of organizations that HH participate in (+) National Program =1 if commune of national target program, 0 otherwise (-) Permanent Market =1 if commune has daily permanent market, 0 otherwise (+) Agri-Development No. of agricultural development program in the commune (+) Irrigation Program No. of irrigation program in the commune (+) Red River Delta =1 if HH resides in Ha Tay (+) / (-) North East =1 if HH resides in Lao Cai or Phu Tho (+) / (-) North West =1 if HH resides in or Dien Bien or Lai Chau (+) / (-) North Central =1 if HH resides in Nghe An (+) / (-) South Central Coast =1 if HH resides in Quang Nam or Khanh Hoa (+) / (-) Central Highlands =1 if HH resides in Dak Lak, Dak Nong or Lam Dong (+) / (-) Mekong River Delta =1 if HH resides in Long An (+) / (-) Note: Dummies are in Italic; (+): Positive Effect; (-): Negative Effect HH=Household; HHH=Household Head 210 211 APPENDIX 5.13 Distribution of borrowers, by adopters and non-adopters The statistics show that among microcredit and non-microcredit borrowers, the adopter accounts for larger proportion than the non-adopters. Figure 5.13 - Distribution of borrowers, by adopters and non-adopters Microcredit Non-microcredit Non-adopter 52 149 Adopter 198 536 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 N u m b er o f b o rr o w er s 212 APPENDIX 6.1 Definition of welfare variables Variables Definition TOTAL OUTPUT VALUE/ INCOME (TOV/INC) Agriculture TOV/INC from all agricultural activities including cultivation, raising livestock and aquaculture. Crop TOV/INC from cultivation activities. Livestock TOV/INC from rearing activities including livestock and aquaculture. Self-employment TOV/INC from self-employment activities. Common property resources TOV/INC from common property resources activities, such as forestry, sea or river. For instance, collecting timber or wood, catching aquaculture. Wage INC from salaried sources. Total earned sources TOV/INC from such sources as agriculture, self- employment, common property resources and wage. FOOD CONSUMPTION All food Expenditure on all food, including both agricultural and industrial food. Agricultural food Expenditure on agricultural food. For instance, meat, fish, fruit, etc. Industrial food Expenditure on industrial food. For instance, milk, canned food, beverages, eating outside house, etc. DURABLE ASSET VALUE All durable asset Value of all durable assets currently owned. Production asset Value of all production durable assets currently owned. For instance, Feed grinding machine, rice milling machine, pesticide sprayers, etc. Non-production asset Value of all non-production (consumer) durable assets currently owned. For instance, television, video player, cassette player, telephone, refrigerator, etc. Note: Total output value is the value from production, barter or self-consumption (Million Dong/year) Income equal total output value less intermediary production cost (Million Dong/year) Durable Asset Value (Million Dong); Food consumption (Million Dong/Month) 213 APPENDIX 6.2 Variables for estimation of propensity score Variable T=0 T=1 Treated Control Diff Treated Control Diff Education of HHH 6.21 6.30 -0.093 6.68 6.56 0.128 Age of HHH 47.22 49.76 -2.54*** 48.63 51.46 -2.835*** Marital Status of HHH 0.86 0.83 0.032 0.87 0.82 0.056** Gender of HHH 0.86 0.82 0.0408* 0.85 0.80 0.053** Ethnic of HHH 0.58 0.66 -0.081*** 0.58 0.66 -0.075*** Microcredit 0.29 0.15 0.145*** Non-microcredit 0.32 0.25 0.062** 0.13 0.29 -0.158*** Poverty Status 0.27 0.25 0.012 0.20 0.19 0.016 Saving 17.40 27.83 -10.43 20.22 30.75 -10.53** Agricultural land 1.03 0.76 0.266*** 1.03 0.73 0.309*** Residential land 0.14 0.10 0.043*** 0.13 0.10 0.035** Household size 4.89 4.47 0.427*** 4.86 4.41 0.451*** Dependence ratio 0.30 0.35 -0.051*** 0.29 0.36 -0.068*** Agricultural labor 3.05 2.45 0.597*** 3.19 2.49 0.704*** Wage labor 1.09 1.02 0.0735 1.18 1.20 -0.024 Self-employed labor 0.41 0.45 -0.042 0.44 0.37 0.068 Distance to main road 2.03 2.15 -0.115 1.80 1.86 -0.054 Social capital 7.27 7.43 -0.156 7.60 7.36 0.246 Poor commune 0.61 0.51 0.095*** 0.48 0.38 0.095*** Market 0.52 0.57 -0.043 0.63 0.67 -0.049* Red River Delta 0.13 0.17 -0.038* 0.13 0.17 -0.038* North East 0.16 0.19 -0.030 0.16 0.19 -0.030 North West 0.21 0.17 0.033 0.21 0.17 0.033 North Central 0.04 0.07 -0.032** 0.04 0.07 -0.032** South Central Coast 0.04 0.13 -0.096*** 0.04 0.13 -0.096*** Central Highlands 0.34 0.19 0.150*** 0.34 0.19 0.150*** Mekong River Delta 0.10 0.09 0.012 0.10 0.09 0.012 Obs 313 3231 313 3231 Note: Difference = Mean (Treatment) - Mean (Control) Continuous variables are tested using ttest; Dummies in Italic are tested using prtest. *, ** and *** : Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. 214 APPENDIX 6.3 Outcome variables for estimation of the impact of microcredit VARIABLE T=0 T=1 Treated Control Diff Treated Control Diff TOTAL OUTPUT VALUE Agriculture 72.048 47.714 24.33*** 79.293 53.576 25.72*** Crop 45.528 32.011 13.52*** 52.359 35.133 17.23*** Livestock 26.519 15.703 10.82*** 26.934 18.443 8.491 Self-employment 30.019 69.311 -39.29 60.543 70.953 -10.41 Common Property Resources 2.315 1.715 0.600 2.078 2.125 -0.047 Wage 16.530 22.971 -6.441*** 23.464 30.437 -6.973** Total Earned Sources 120.912 141.712 -20.80 165.378 157.092 8.286 Total Earned Non-Wage Sources 104.382 118.740 -14.36 141.914 126.654 15.26 INCOME Agriculture 33.950 23.411 10.54*** 35.030 26.935 8.094** Crop 4.172 4.311 -0.139 2.925 5.116 -2.191 Livestock 13.060 6.776 6.284*** 10.571 8.076 2.496 Self-employment 7.534 15.085 -7.551 16.051 16.488 -0.437 Common Property Resources 2.002 1.614 0.388 1.925 1.885 0.041 Wage 16.530 22.971 -6.441*** 23.464 30.437 -6.973** Total Earned Sources 60.016 63.081 -3.065 76.470 75.745 0.725 Total Earned Non-Wage Sources 43.486 40.110 3.376 53.006 45.307 7.698 FOOD EXPENDITURE All food 1.415 1.460 -0.045 1.509 1.477 0.032 Agricultural Food 0.926 0.897 0.028 0.886 0.871 0.015 Industrial Food 0.489 0.563 -0.074 0.623 0.605 0.017 DURABLE ASSET VALUE All Durable Asset 31.851 35.622 -3.772 37.878 38.775 -0.897 Production Asset 2.717 2.198 0.519 6.742 3.364 3.378* Non-Production Asset 29.133 33.424 -4.291 31.136 35.411 -4.275 Obs 313 3231 313 3231 Note: Difference = Mean (Treatment) - Mean (Control) Unit in Million dong *, ** and *** : Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. 215 APPENDIX 6.4 Probit estimations for calculation of propensity score Variable Coef. t-stat Microcredit at T=0 (1=Yes) 0.4612*** 5.77 Non-Microcredit at T=1 (1=Yes) -0.6867*** -8.04 Non-Microcredit at T=0 (1=Yes) 0.1881** 2.54 Education level of HHH 0.0066 0.63 Age of HHH -0.0079*** -2.69 Marital Status of HHH (1=Married) -0.1677 -1.32 Gender of HHH (1=Male) 0.0542 0.44 Ethnicity of HHH (1=Kinh) 0.1068 1.01 Poverty Status (1=Poor) 0.0195 0.24 Saving Value -0.0020** -2.37 Agricultural Land -0.0101 -0.18 Residential Land 0.1523 1.07 Total Land 0.0211 0.44 Household Size 0.0094 0.37 Dependence Ratio -0.2620* -1.79 Agricultural Labor 0.1123*** 3.59 Non-Wage (Non-farm) Labor -0.0249 -0.74 Wage Labor -0.0360 -0.9 Distance to main road -0.0183* -1.89 Social Capital 0.0088 1.52 Poor Commune (1=Poor) 0.0004 0.01 Market (1=Yes) 0.0675 0.91 Mekong River Delta (Base) Red River Delta -0.3074** -2.08 North East -0.3874** -2.57 North West -0.1281 -0.81 North Central -0.5288*** -2.72 South Central Coast -0.7818 -4.4 Central Highlands 0.0288 0.21 Constant -1.0333*** -4.00 Max VIF 4.53 Balancing test Satisfied Off-support 148 [151] On-Support 3396 [3393] Note: The dummies in Italic (0=Otherwise). *, ** and ***: Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. Common support region is identified using such commands as diff and pscore [in bracket]. 216 APPENDIX 6.5 Common support region Treatment assignment Common Support Total Off Support On-support Control 147 3,084 3,231 Treated 1 312 313 Total 148 3,396 3,544 APPENDIX 6.6 Distribution of the treated and the control, on- and off-support Figure 6.6 – Common support region 0 2 4 6 8 1 0 k d e n s it y _ p s 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 propensity score treated control 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Propensity Score Untreated: Off support Untreated: On support Treated: On support Treated: Off support 217 APPENDIX 7.1 Variables for analysis of impact of health shocks and role of microcredit Code Variable Description PANEL 1: Outcome variables Income EINC Earned Revenue Revenue per capita from earned sources, including production, employment, self- business, common property resources. TINC Total Revenue Revenue per capita from all sources, including earned sources and un-earned sources such as private and public transfer. Consumption TCON Total expenditure Real total expenditure per capita ECON Education expenditure Real expenditures on education per capita HCON Healthcare expenditure Real Healthcare expenditure per capita FCON Food expenditure Real Food and drink expenditure per capita NFCD Daily non-food expenditure Real Daily Non-food (non-education, non- medical, non-other-non-food) expenditure per capita. For instance, gas, petroleum, shampoo, soap, newspaper, regular worship activities, brush and tooth paste and so forth. NFCA Other (Annual) Non- food expenditure Real Other Non-food (non-education, non- medical, non-daily-non-food) expenditure per capita. For instance, durables, home appliances, housing, clean water, sanitary system, fees and charges on administrative and legal services, taxes and so forth. Labor CHILD Children with job Number of children with at least one job OLD Elderly with job Number of elderly with at least one job NWW Out-of-working-age member with job Number of out-of-working-age members with at least one job 218 CODE Variable Description PANEL 2: Other control variables MARI Marital Status of HHH Dummy (1=Married; 0=single, widow, divorced) GENDER Gender of HHH Dummy (1=Male; 0=Female) GRAD Education of HHH Grade completed (from 1 to 12) ETHI Ethnic of HHH Dummy (1=Kinh; 0=Otherwise) SIZE Household size Number of members SFEM Female members Number of female members SAGE1 Children members Number of members less than or equal to 14 years old SAGE3 Elderly members Number of members above or equal to 61 years old LAND1 Land for cultivation and raising aquaculture Total area of land used for cultivation and water surface used for raising aquaculture (Hectare) LAND2 Total land Total area of land used or managed by households (Hectare) POOR Poverty status Dummy (1=Poor, 0=Non-poor) HOME Private house Dummy (1=Own; 0=Renting) INSU Insurance card Number of Insurance Card possessed by households CO135 Commune of program 135 Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) COFAR Remote commune Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) ROAD Commune accessible by all- weather road Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) IMARK Market within commune Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) REGI1 Red River Delta region; Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) REGI2 Midlands and Northern Mountainous Areas Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) REGI3 Northern and Coastal Central Region Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) REGI4 Central Highlands Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) REGI5 Southeast Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) REGI6 Mekong Delta Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise) Note: Dummies are in italic. 219 220 APPENDIX 7.2 Unanticipation of health shocks HS1W in 2012 (HS1Wt) HS1A in 2012 (HS1At) HS1W in 2010 (HS1Wt-1) 0.142*** 0.207*** (5.343) (8.434) HS1A in 2010 (HS1At-1) 0.103*** 0.209*** (4.167) (10.44) MARI 0.0104 0.0145 0.0448 0.0441* (0.496) (0.851) (1.439) (1.733) GENDER 0.0129 0.0140 -0.00658 0.00530 (0.652) (0.837) (-0.232) (0.225) ETHI 0.00979 0.0331* 0.0863 0.0631*** (0.308) (1.930) (1.515) (2.628) GRAD -0.000878 -0.00199 -0.000584 -0.00261 (-0.397) (-1.181) (-0.209) (-1.175) SIZE 0.0274*** 0.0203*** 0.0166* 0.00688 (3.791) (3.095) (1.726) (0.825) SFEM 0.00969 0.0180** 0.00930 0.0219** (1.119) (2.239) (0.791) (2.153) SAGE12 -0.0453*** -0.0511*** 0.00553 -0.00546 (-5.408) (-7.205) (0.524) (-0.594) SAGE6 -0.0703*** -0.0601*** 0.0244* 0.0100 (-7.359) (-8.997) (1.853) (0.919) LAND1 0.00264 0.0184* -0.000811 0.0192 (0.256) (1.803) (-0.0608) (1.523) LAND2 -0.00125 -0.00244 -0.00249 -0.00465 (-0.248) (-0.404) (-0.389) (-0.587) HOME 0.0358 0.0514 0.0546 0.0642 (1.009) (1.596) (0.825) (1.212) POOR -0.0177 -0.00664 0.00307 0.00603 (-0.992) (-0.474) (0.129) (0.295) ISURE 0.00759 0.0105** 0.0114 0.0142** (1.314) (2.189) (1.480) (2.387) CO135 0.0681 -0.00745 -0.706 -0.0114 (0.393) (-0.431) (-1.160) (-0.480) COFAR 0.0897 -0.0282* 0.359 -0.0538** (0.631) (-1.680) (1.110) (-2.421) ROAD -0.0970 -7.42e-05 0.419 0.000793 (-0.597) (-0.00347) (0.809) (0.0298) IMARK -0.573 -0.00531 -0.402 0.00157 (-1.436) (-0.477) (-0.916) (0.106) REGI2 0.634 -0.0190 0.394 -0.00529 (1.537) (-1.225) (0.880) (-0.243) REGI3 1.400*** 0.00414 1.338*** 0.0294 (3.450) (0.280) (2.976) (1.467) REGI4 1.061** -0.00532 0.746 0.0711** (2.012) (-0.225) (1.185) (2.042) REGI5 0.494 0.00539 0.348 0.0598** (1.271) (0.248) (0.559) (1.984) REGI6 0.445 0.0931*** 0.881 0.213*** (1.072) (4.822) (1.294) (8.343) Constant -0.0552 -0.0897** -0.751 -0.136** (-0.316) (-2.000) (-1.429) (-2.024) VFE With Without With Without Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 Note: Robust t-statistics in parentheses *** indicates that the coefficients are significant at 1%. 221 APPENDIX 7.3 First stage estimates using IV for HS1W IV Model 1 IV Model 2 IV Model 3 Model 1a Model 1b Model 2a Model 2b Model 3a Model 3b Commune Poverty Rate 13,659.9397** 1,093.7289 3,648.5445 1,061.7638 (2.0193) (0.7489) (0.9427) (0.7326) Distance to Bank -243.7123* -1.4218 88.8183 1.5706 (-1.6981) (-0.0844) (0.9427) (0.0944) HS1W 626.9243 1,041.2241** 626.9243 1,041.2513** 626.9243 1,036.2436** (1.0492) (2.1590) (1.0492) (2.1591) (1.0492) (2.1431) MARI -845.2798* -468.5526 -845.2798* -469.5609 -845.2798* -467.4307 (-1.7560) (-1.1266) (-1.7560) (-1.1305) (-1.7560) (-1.1239) GENDER 381.1359 28.7795 381.1359 29.6914 381.1359 40.5524 (0.8772) (0.0789) (0.8772) (0.0815) (0.8772) (0.1115) ETHI 101.8705 -594.5730 101.8705 -592.0406 101.8705 -696.8731 (0.0938) (-0.9531) (0.0938) (-0.9487) (0.0938) (-1.1657) GRAD 119.1608** 103.3335** 119.1608** 103.4810** 119.1608** 103.4639** (2.2130) (2.3661) (2.2130) (2.3708) (2.2130) (2.3697) SIZE 476.4076*** 277.2925** 476.4076*** 277.4325** 476.4076*** 276.4138** (3.0839) (2.0926) (3.0839) (2.0942) (3.0839) (2.0909) SFEM -548.6763** -219.6011 -548.6763** -219.1086 -548.6763** -227.3900 (-2.3364) (-1.1068) (-2.3364) (-1.1049) (-2.3364) (-1.1439) SAGE12 -230.5495 -411.6684** -230.5495 -412.7582** -230.5495 -411.7194** (-1.1505) (-2.2017) (-1.1505) (-2.2168) (-1.1505) (-2.2029) SAGE6 -389.7263* -620.2460*** -389.7263* -620.3566*** -389.7263* -628.1187*** (-1.8196) (-3.6644) (-1.8196) (-3.6637) (-1.8196) (-3.7169) LAND1 -58.8141 -792.9602*** -58.8141 -793.3275*** -58.8141 -795.5234*** (-0.2084) (-2.7515) (-0.2084) (-2.7516) (-0.2084) (-2.7629) LAND2 20.7281 567.1252** 20.7281 566.2769** 20.7281 571.5016** (0.0818) (2.1716) (0.0818) (2.1743) (0.0818) (2.1898) HOME 767.3200 1,180.8813*** 767.3200 1,181.3963*** 767.3200 1,203.8612*** (1.2304) (3.7743) (1.2304) (3.7747) (1.2304) (3.9030) POOR 3,731.1428*** 3,977.1004*** 3,731.1428*** 3,977.1129*** 3,731.1428*** 4,046.0841*** (7.3412) (7.4342) (7.3412) (7.4353) (7.3412) (7.6155) 222 ISURE 70.4204 135.9132 70.4204 136.1313 70.4204 141.2917 (0.6028) (1.3628) (0.6028) (1.3664) (0.6028) (1.4334) CO135 -308.6317 -198.2406 -3,317.6204 -201.7970 -4,414.2137* -57.0020 (-0.1158) (-0.3552) (-1.5756) (-0.3601) (-1.7061) (-0.1083) COFAR 1,859.7922 581.7074 2,489.8352** 578.0149 2,719.4476** 612.5620 (1.4351) (1.2695) (1.9872) (1.2793) (2.0484) (1.3648) ROAD -583.0596 430.7269 2,403.7349* 437.1220 3,492.2398* 406.3000 (-0.2772) (1.1071) (1.8886) (1.1337) (1.7281) (1.0505) IMARK 1,217.9758 -551.0578** -2,687.7245* -551.7264** -4,111.1146* -571.4919** (0.5210) (-2.0499) (-1.8208) (-2.0516) (-1.7286) (-2.1279) REGI2 -2,023.0941 1,510.9221*** 2,764.4787* 1,507.8317*** 4,509.2578* 1,576.6798*** (-0.7117) (3.0497) (1.6951) (3.0597) (1.6567) (3.1926) REGI3 4,233.8704 1,493.7910*** 1,649.2837 1,492.7548*** 707.3591 1,555.8851*** (1.5297) (3.4352) (0.8690) (3.4449) (0.3562) (3.7249) REGI4 -4,915.8163** -285.4030 -3,212.4437 -290.0257 -2,591.6681 -271.1791 (-2.3500) (-0.6277) (-1.5810) (-0.6413) (-1.2406) (-0.5919) REGI5 -9,297.4691* -272.4921 -812.3093 -274.1020 2,280.0152 -304.8192 (-1.7619) (-0.9081) (-0.2897) (-0.9147) (0.7465) (-1.0261) REGI6 -642.2161 -234.0533 2,652.1227 -235.8311 3,852.7087 -233.8677 (-0.2956) (-0.8217) (1.5484) (-0.8296) (1.6216) (-0.8206) Constant -1,260.1138 -816.2711 -4,431.6879** -829.2350 -5,587.5337** -635.9776 (-0.4732) (-0.9106) (-2.3065) (-0.9335) (-2.0338) (-0.7317) VFE With Without With Without With Without Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 F(i,df) 2.04 0.28 0.89 0.54 0.89 0.1132 Prob>F 0.13 0.755 0.346 0.4639 0.346 0.9248 Note : Robust t-statistics in parentheses; *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively aF-test for H0: Week instrumentts. If F-test > 10, reject H0, and vice versa. 223 APPENDIX 7.4 First stage estimates using IV for HS1A IV Model 1 IV Model 2 IV Model 3 Model 1a Model 1b Model 2a Model 2b Model 3a Model 3b Commune Poverty Rate 15,859.3601** 1,109.5086 5,723.2638 1,071.6630 (2.2844) (0.7592) (1.2671) (0.7387) Distance to Bank -246.7480* -1.6820 139.3242 1.3552 (-1.7240) (-0.0999) (1.2671) (0.0815) HS1A 483.7621 639.9030** 483.7621 639.5026** 483.7621 633.1655** (1.1553) (2.0058) (1.1553) (2.0063) (1.1553) (1.9762) MARI -861.4867* -482.2099 -861.4867* -483.3813 -861.4867* -480.8176 (-1.7770) (-1.1590) (-1.7770) (-1.1632) (-1.7770) (-1.1557) GENDER 393.0971 40.2658 393.0971 41.3491 393.0971 52.1852 (0.9022) (0.1105) (0.9022) (0.1136) (0.9022) (0.1437) ETHI 63.8295 -599.7323 63.8295 -596.7055 63.8295 -703.1787 (0.0588) (-0.9582) (0.0588) (-0.9532) (0.0588) (-1.1723) GRAD 119.0418** 103.5256** 119.0418** 103.6988** 119.0418** 103.6460** (2.2130) (2.3699) (2.2130) (2.3751) (2.2130) (2.3731) SIZE 487.3533*** 297.7141** 487.3533*** 297.8828** 487.3533*** 296.7450** (3.1664) (2.2623) (3.1664) (2.2640) (3.1664) (2.2601) SFEM -546.1679** -212.4477 -546.1679** -211.8552 -546.1679** -220.2975 (-2.3245) (-1.0734) (-2.3245) (-1.0710) (-2.3245) (-1.1108) SAGE12 -266.6846 -476.0918** -266.6846 -477.3821** -266.6846 -475.8238** (-1.3167) (-2.5241) (-1.3167) (-2.5392) (-1.3167) (-2.5239) SAGE6 -452.1848** -704.2950*** -452.1848** -704.4231*** -452.1848** -711.8252*** (-2.1497) (-4.1969) (-2.1497) (-4.1956) (-2.1497) (-4.2588) LAND1 -56.0098 -784.3585*** -56.0098 -784.7843*** -56.0098 -786.9265*** (-0.1988) (-2.7255) (-0.1988) (-2.7260) (-0.1988) (-2.7369) LAND2 20.9273 567.5436** 20.9273 566.5395** 20.9273 571.9750** (0.0827) (2.1765) (0.0827) (2.1786) (0.0827) (2.1950) HOME 762.0062 1,188.3569*** 762.0062 1,188.9997*** 762.0062 1,211.9126*** (1.2192) (3.7748) (1.2192) (3.7755) (1.2192) (3.9046) POOR 3,717.0654*** 3,964.6511*** 3,717.0654*** 3,964.6717*** 3,717.0654*** 4,034.7214*** (7.3177) (7.4078) (7.3177) (7.4088) (7.3177) (7.5870) 224 ISURE 69.4474 137.8526 69.4474 138.1189 69.4474 143.3686 (0.5941) (1.3799) (0.5941) (1.3840) (0.5941) (1.4524) CO135 -70.1190 -196.3834 -3,116.5874 -200.5958 -4,836.7508* -53.2106 (-0.0263) (-0.3519) (-1.4655) (-0.3579) (-1.8219) (-0.1010) COFAR 1,791.2516 587.1233 2,429.1424* 582.7332 2,789.3223** 618.1945 (1.3621) (1.2781) (1.9059) (1.2866) (2.0540) (1.3738) ROAD -598.2011 427.4368 2,425.7967* 435.0073 4,133.2723* 402.7305 (-0.2871) (1.1002) (1.9544) (1.1296) (1.9405) (1.0429) IMARK 941.2239 -556.2737** -3,013.1255** -557.0646** -5,245.9165** -576.9694** (0.4001) (-2.0649) (-2.1120) (-2.0670) (-2.0512) (-2.1440) REGI2 -1,749.9955 1,498.9866*** 3,097.2109* 1,495.3255*** 5,834.1463** 1,565.6855*** (-0.6101) (3.0195) (1.9433) (3.0281) (1.9772) (3.1622) REGI3 4,640.4905* 1,479.0580*** 2,023.7104 1,477.8512*** 546.1669 1,542.2661*** (1.7956) (3.3976) (1.1848) (3.4066) (0.2730) (3.6877) REGI4 -4,632.7318** -338.4919 -2,908.1422 -343.9146 -1,934.3667 -323.4014 (-2.2604) (-0.7400) (-1.4896) (-0.7555) (-0.9702) (-0.7012) REGI5 -10,016.5133* -313.8323 -1,425.6631 -315.7007 3,425.0902 -346.0919 (-1.9041) (-1.0362) (-0.4953) (-1.0435) (1.0931) (-1.1558) REGI6 -613.1201 -279.1939 2,722.2526 -281.1858 4,605.5436* -277.8136 (-0.2838) (-0.9578) (1.6276) (-0.9662) (1.9070) (-0.9524) Constant -1,358.5667 -826.9309 -4,569.6456** -842.3339 -6,382.7550** -644.6256 (-0.5095) (-0.9213) (-2.3945) (-0.9470) (-2.2118) (-0.7403) VFE With Without With Without With Without Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 F(i,df) 2.61 0.29 1.61 0.55 1.61 0.01 Prob>F 0.0738 0.7495 0.2053 0.4602 0.2053 0.9351 Note : Robust t-statistics in parentheses; *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively aF-test for H0: Week instrumentts. If F-test > 10, reject H0, and vice versa. 225 APPENDIX 7.5 Impact of HS1W and the Role of Microcredit – VFE VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW HS1W (β1) -0.0956* -0.0794* 0.117** 0.0577 0.341*** 0.0307 -0.00664 0.0504 0.00764 0.104*** 0.0898** (-1.829) (-1.776) (2.205) (0.690) (3.640) (0.888) (-0.134) (0.735) (0.265) (2.842) (2.490) HS1W*CR (β2) -0.00395 -0.00317 0.00530 -0.00703 0.000434 -1.03e-06 0.00417 0.00696 -0.00434 -0.00527 -0.00749* (-0.688) (-0.605) (1.196) (-0.862) (0.0397) (-0.000350) (0.926) (1.227) (-1.250) (-1.269) (-1.752) MARI 0.0655 -0.00185 0.0419 -0.0602 0.152 -0.0338 -0.00548 -0.0212 0.0102 0.0427 0.0362 (1.362) (-0.0448) (0.829) (-0.715) (1.518) (-1.055) (-0.115) (-0.339) (0.513) (1.096) (1.099) GENDER 0.0744* 0.0723** -0.0177 -0.0571 -0.0317 0.00877 -0.0103 -0.0182 0.00369 -0.0106 0.00622 (1.811) (1.997) (-0.381) (-0.730) (-0.352) (0.303) (-0.241) (-0.317) (0.206) (-0.333) (0.219) ETHI 0.161 0.169* 0.116 0.159 -0.00832 0.131* -0.0793 0.187* 0.0914 0.00558 0.0887 (1.590) (1.871) (1.305) (0.978) (-0.0368) (1.878) (-0.996) (1.705) (1.624) (0.0898) (1.485) GRAD 0.00291 -0.00107 -0.0134*** 0.00475 -0.00675 0.00184 0.000931 -0.00759 0.00116 0.00908*** 0.00681** (0.617) (-0.266) (-2.857) (0.605) (-0.741) (0.596) (0.219) (-1.318) (0.526) (2.845) (2.317) SIZE 0.0658*** 0.0121 -0.0404*** -0.0418 -0.0178 0.0442*** 0.0531*** 0.0264 -0.0258*** 0.0197* -0.00955 (4.055) (0.889) (-2.653) (-1.560) (-0.579) (4.164) (3.557) (1.351) (-3.420) (1.724) (-0.977) SFEM -0.0274 -0.00145 -0.00846 0.0222 -0.0245 -0.0117 -0.0281 -0.00748 -0.0125 -0.0301** -0.0331*** (-1.532) (-0.0904) (-0.452) (0.708) (-0.672) (-0.926) (-1.564) (-0.310) (-1.390) (-2.154) (-2.821) SAGE1 -0.0226 -0.0111 0.000730 0.254*** 0.0194 -0.00159 0.0186 0.00864 0.0755*** -0.00280 0.0516*** (-1.373) (-0.771) (0.0436) (8.851) (0.581) (-0.142) (1.186) (0.411) (7.085) (-0.233) (4.072) SAGE3 -0.0388* -0.0379** -0.0459** -0.0114 0.0590 -0.0223 -0.0195 -0.0342 0.0218** 0.147*** 0.127*** (-1.690) (-2.095) (-2.210) (-0.326) (1.408) (-1.498) (-0.976) (-1.287) (2.158) (7.919) (8.117) LAND1 -0.0591** -0.0540** -0.00357 -0.0503 0.0532 -0.0324* -0.0336 -0.0252 0.0316** 0.00879 0.0297 (-2.309) (-2.296) (-0.133) (-0.974) (1.055) (-1.780) (-1.485) (-0.758) (1.963) (0.526) (1.601) LAND2 0.00512 0.0146 0.0209 -0.0113 -0.0385 -0.00291 0.00443 0.0200 -0.0186 -0.00148 -0.0119 (0.326) (1.054) (1.238) (-0.285) (-1.049) (-0.268) (0.353) (0.948) (-1.340) (-0.134) (-0.791) HOME -0.102 0.0567 0.0913 -0.173 0.181 0.0134 0.00303 0.0138 -0.0200 -0.0643 -0.0735 (-0.771) (0.520) (0.835) (-0.941) (0.784) (0.165) (0.0293) (0.102) (-0.342) (-0.774) (-1.112) POOR -0.0695* -0.0771** -0.0258 -0.0980 0.0294 -0.0228 0.0217 0.00499 -0.0309 -0.00490 -0.0182 (-1.678) (-2.203) (-0.663) (-1.421) (0.340) (-0.799) (0.526) (0.0962) (-1.219) (-0.148) (-0.554) INSU -0.0230** -0.00894 0.0251** 0.0325* 0.0292 0.00817 0.0133 0.0117 0.000626 -0.00728 -0.00800 226 (-2.108) (-0.906) (2.151) (1.647) (1.246) (1.039) (1.157) (0.797) (0.118) (-0.926) (-1.056) CO135 0.337 0.364 1.739** 0.575 -0.0251 0.818** 0.983 0.730 0.102 0.710 0.781 (0.396) (0.449) (2.236) (0.499) (-0.0115) (2.034) (1.159) (0.677) (1.026) (1.087) (1.148) COFAR 0.131 -0.00440 -0.460 -0.756 0.328 -0.304** -0.586 -0.0593 -0.0285 -0.000100 -0.0169 (0.406) (-0.0166) (-1.178) (-1.462) (0.256) (-2.298) (-1.159) (-0.0891) (-0.446) (-0.00133) (-0.381) ROAD -0.131 -0.109 -1.169** 0.254 0.299 -0.759** -1.302*** -0.458 0.0362 0.00664 0.0467 (-0.191) (-0.158) (-2.213) (0.247) (0.157) (-2.214) (-2.637) (-0.833) (0.605) (0.0904) (1.075) IMARK 0.518*** 0.622*** 1.146*** 1.503 1.985* 0.473 0.643*** 0.576 0.0247 0.518 0.315 (3.014) (3.074) (2.607) (1.206) (1.853) (1.140) (2.848) (0.990) (0.339) (1.348) (1.337) REGI1 is based REGI2 -0.118 -0.565 -1.209** -1.725 -4.118*** -0.500 -0.0974 -0.425 -0.0319 -0.855 -0.645 (-0.157) (-0.875) (-2.391) (-1.358) (-3.366) (-0.961) (-0.248) (-0.532) (-0.295) (-1.622) (-1.497) REGI3 -0.264 -0.667 -1.445** -2.497* -2.725** -0.422 -0.537 -0.340 -0.0655 -0.579 -0.403 (-0.314) (-0.867) (-2.042) (-1.816) (-2.258) (-0.754) (-1.436) (-0.378) (-0.552) (-1.454) (-1.590) REGI4 -0.811 -1.022 -0.986* -0.272 -2.510*** -0.204 0.555 -0.516 -0.560 -0.603 -0.493 (-0.981) (-1.417) (-1.691) (-0.212) (-2.711) (-0.420) (0.909) (-0.609) (-0.868) (-1.543) (-1.403) REGI5 -0.793 -0.938 -0.913 -0.595 -3.338** -0.296 0.312 -0.342 -0.00371 -0.548 -0.339 (-0.969) (-1.272) (-1.354) (-0.400) (-2.375) (-0.503) (0.609) (-0.345) (-0.0445) (-1.413) (-1.385) REGI6 -0.714 -1.019 -2.030*** -0.614 -2.357 -0.921 -0.958* -0.701 -0.0180 -0.460 -0.272 (-0.713) (-1.085) (-2.900) (-0.393) (-1.196) (-1.621) (-1.797) (-0.900) (-0.171) (-1.167) (-1.095) Constant 0.00334 0.224 1.359** 0.0188 0.118 0.494 0.796 0.0891 -0.0707 -0.122 -0.133 (0.00336) (0.242) (2.408) (0.0177) (0.0598) (1.217) (1.502) (0.154) (-0.664) (-1.166) (-1.442) Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively 227 APPENDIX 7.6 Impact of HS1W and the Role of Microcredit – Without VFE VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW HS1W (β1) -0.0654* -0.0478 0.114*** 0.0561 0.412*** 0.0413 0.0230 0.0740 -0.0165 0.0314 0.0223 (-1.764) (-1.453) (3.038) (0.865) (6.485) (1.497) (0.638) (1.547) (-0.705) (1.238) (0.860) HS1W*CR (β2) -0.00237 -0.00190 -0.00142 -0.00538 0.00832 0.000388 0.00598* 0.00252 -0.00189 -0.00428 -0.00383 (-0.505) (-0.476) (-0.503) (-0.673) (1.527) (0.218) (1.817) (0.681) (-0.603) (-1.474) (-1.201) MARI 0.0370 -0.00826 0.0242 -0.0404 0.123 -0.0257 -0.0465 0.00857 -0.0104 0.0628* 0.0391 (0.891) (-0.237) (0.600) (-0.613) (1.498) (-0.840) (-1.124) (0.166) (-0.638) (1.757) (1.400) GENDER 0.0670* 0.0733** 0.00682 -0.0453 -0.0187 0.0107 0.00219 -0.0345 -0.00199 -0.0356 -0.0223 (1.893) (2.397) (0.189) (-0.736) (-0.262) (0.389) (0.0591) (-0.747) (-0.144) (-1.186) (-0.928) ETHI 0.123*** 0.123*** 0.0698* -0.0338 -0.0310 0.0306 0.0268 0.123** 0.0176 -0.0434 -0.000564 (3.095) (3.451) (1.774) (-0.526) (-0.375) (1.103) (0.625) (2.426) (0.904) (-1.498) (-0.0218) GRAD -0.00216 -0.00458 -0.0107*** 0.00686 -0.00111 -0.00236 -2.68e-05 -0.00913** 0.00319* 0.00598** 0.00709*** (-0.618) (-1.551) (-3.179) (1.199) (-0.158) (-0.976) (-0.00787) (-2.071) (1.720) (2.368) (2.998) SIZE 0.0338*** -0.0140 -0.0368*** -0.0211 -0.00974 0.0362*** 0.0431*** 0.0371** -0.0213*** 0.0115 -0.0112 (2.640) (-1.251) (-3.005) (-0.974) (-0.385) (3.971) (3.453) (2.319) (-3.498) (1.279) (-1.497) SFEM -0.00646 0.0168 -0.00257 -0.0134 -0.0347 -0.00992 -0.00823 -0.00685 -0.0138* -0.0159 -0.0284*** (-0.455) (1.289) (-0.169) (-0.525) (-1.143) (-0.921) (-0.547) (-0.344) (-1.884) (-1.589) (-3.323) SAGE1 -0.0261** -0.0164 -0.00304 0.249*** 0.0331 0.00215 0.0248* 0.00159 0.0695*** -0.00294 0.0490*** (-1.992) (-1.371) (-0.228) (10.59) (1.186) (0.228) (1.854) (0.0908) (7.634) (-0.315) (4.966) SAGE3 -0.0652*** -0.0479*** -0.0472*** -0.0152 0.0633* -0.0348*** -0.0274 -0.0469** 0.0214*** 0.119*** 0.108*** (-3.463) (-3.153) (-2.712) (-0.562) (1.827) (-2.699) (-1.606) (-2.101) (2.833) (7.253) (8.182) LAND1 -0.0359** -0.0307* -0.00218 -0.0536 0.0385 -0.00596 -0.00841 -0.0190 0.00349 -0.00814 -0.00203 (-2.123) (-1.919) (-0.124) (-1.547) (1.066) (-0.432) (-0.467) (-0.763) (0.297) (-0.591) (-0.150) LAND2 0.00284 0.00487 0.00729 -0.0201 -0.0568** -0.00887 -0.00538 0.0140 -0.00625 0.00419 -0.00204 (0.310) (0.560) (0.613) (-0.781) (-2.149) (-0.915) (-0.416) (0.768) (-0.647) (0.382) (-0.179) HOME -0.0758 -0.0160 0.0171 0.0862 -0.278 0.00314 -0.0438 0.0283 0.0279 -0.0398 0.00233 (-0.848) (-0.222) (0.206) (0.571) (-1.441) (0.0487) (-0.507) (0.265) (0.675) (-0.909) (0.0467) POOR -0.0454 -0.0556* -0.00696 -0.0973* 0.0294 -0.0198 0.0161 0.0321 -0.0165 0.00646 -0.00819 (-1.307) (-1.943) (-0.215) (-1.839) (0.425) (-0.819) (0.468) (0.754) (-0.824) (0.245) (-0.319) INSU -0.00410 0.00219 0.0203** 0.0222 0.0359** 0.0142** 0.0142 0.00288 -0.00253 -0.00512 -0.00635 228 (-0.498) (0.293) (2.449) (1.526) (2.061) (2.303) (1.556) (0.268) (-0.592) (-0.850) (-1.191) CO135 0.0297 0.0265 0.00496 0.0401 0.0185 0.00743 -0.0845** 0.0136 0.00618 0.00624 0.0242 (0.868) (0.865) (0.136) (0.652) (0.242) (0.302) (-2.419) (0.287) (0.298) (0.229) (0.912) COFAR 0.0618** 0.0544** 0.0294 0.0421 -0.0416 0.0392* 0.112*** 0.0226 -0.00459 0.00965 0.00425 (2.003) (1.986) (0.931) (0.799) (-0.639) (1.729) (3.558) (0.559) (-0.279) (0.437) (0.200) ROAD 0.00929 0.0151 -0.00399 0.0474 0.0586 0.0241 -0.0446 0.0203 0.0281 0.0281 0.0537* (0.254) (0.465) (-0.102) (0.697) (0.712) (0.893) (-1.148) (0.408) (1.124) (0.980) (1.897) IMARK -0.0350 -0.0169 0.0243 -0.0160 -0.0392 -0.00839 0.0448* 0.0290 -0.00472 -0.0153 -0.0266* (-1.495) (-0.820) (1.050) (-0.415) (-0.849) (-0.517) (1.953) (0.970) (-0.418) (-0.938) (-1.724) REGI1 is based REGI2 -0.0459 -0.0439 0.0341 -0.000864 -0.0787 -0.0590** -0.0429 0.0742 -0.0270 -0.00208 -0.0298 (-1.109) (-1.198) (0.871) (-0.0133) (-0.974) (-2.151) (-1.041) (1.419) (-1.576) (-0.0740) (-1.151) REGI3 -0.0309 -0.0124 -0.0221 0.0235 -0.103 -0.0799*** -0.105*** -0.0341 -0.0133 -0.00366 -0.0151 (-0.888) (-0.427) (-0.669) (0.448) (-1.608) (-3.352) (-3.166) (-0.793) (-1.040) (-0.153) (-0.691) REGI4 0.115** 0.119*** 0.0213 0.0806 -0.0877 -0.115*** -0.0960* 0.0355 -0.0500** -0.00792 -0.0280 (2.231) (2.624) (0.413) (1.021) (-0.842) (-3.115) (-1.917) (0.523) (-2.304) (-0.226) (-0.901) REGI5 -0.0644 -0.0755* -0.0237 0.00699 -0.114 -0.00165 -0.0243 0.0633 -0.00344 -0.0110 -0.0136 (-1.308) (-1.859) (-0.529) (0.0945) (-1.314) (-0.0454) (-0.543) (1.099) (-0.217) (-0.429) (-0.556) REGI6 -0.0357 -0.0743** -0.0995*** 0.0833 -0.0405 -0.139*** -0.153*** -0.0757 -0.00430 0.0195 0.0157 (-0.915) (-2.270) (-2.761) (1.431) (-0.587) (-5.582) (-4.156) (-1.627) (-0.290) (0.744) (0.676) Constant 0.0184 0.123 0.141 -0.150 0.148 -0.0139 0.0212 -0.190 -0.0415 -0.00720 -0.0539 (0.160) (1.315) (1.260) (-0.802) (0.611) (-0.168) (0.184) (-1.368) (-0.758) (-0.111) (-0.802) Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively 229 APPENDIX 7.7 Impact of HS1A and the Role of Microcredit – VFE VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW HS1A (β1) -0.0159 -0.0324 0.0586 0.0452 0.355*** 0.00237 -0.0385 0.0213 0.00161 0.0363 0.0125 (-0.407) (-0.961) (1.436) (0.703) (4.911) (0.0914) (-1.028) (0.407) (0.0898) (1.351) (0.519) HS1A*CR (β2) -0.00136 -7.87e-05 0.00675* -0.00549 0.00794 0.000448 0.00969** 0.01000* -0.00448* -1.42e-05 -0.00376 (-0.273) (-0.0174) (1.696) (-0.787) (0.859) (0.166) (2.204) (1.930) (-1.712) (-0.00374) (-1.149) MARI 0.0653 -0.000864 0.0413 -0.0620 0.140 -0.0334 -0.00199 -0.0203 0.00980 0.0429 0.0369 (1.352) (-0.0209) (0.815) (-0.737) (1.414) (-1.043) (-0.0420) (-0.324) (0.495) (1.101) (1.117) GENDER 0.0726* 0.0704* -0.0163 -0.0561 -0.0263 0.00906 -0.0123 -0.0184 0.00398 -0.0102 0.00674 (1.760) (1.938) (-0.350) (-0.718) (-0.294) (0.314) (-0.288) (-0.321) (0.223) (-0.319) (0.237) ETHI 0.162 0.171* 0.109 0.159 -0.0423 0.131* -0.0805 0.181* 0.0937* 0.00372 0.0909 (1.590) (1.882) (1.231) (0.969) (-0.189) (1.880) (-1.007) (1.664) (1.666) (0.0596) (1.519) GRAD 0.00296 -0.00106 -0.0135*** 0.00478 -0.00691 0.00181 0.000764 -0.00774 0.00120 0.00899*** 0.00676** (0.625) (-0.265) (-2.881) (0.609) (-0.761) (0.587) (0.180) (-1.344) (0.546) (2.814) (2.294) SIZE 0.0627*** 0.00970 -0.0381** -0.0409 -0.0147 0.0450*** 0.0525*** 0.0270 -0.0255*** 0.0214* -0.00753 (3.880) (0.716) (-2.508) (-1.532) (-0.480) (4.264) (3.554) (1.387) (-3.420) (1.886) (-0.778) SFEM -0.0283 -0.00197 -0.00743 0.0223 -0.0235 -0.0113 -0.0274 -0.00670 -0.0126 -0.0291** -0.0322*** (-1.577) (-0.122) (-0.396) (0.710) (-0.649) (-0.897) (-1.527) (-0.278) (-1.399) (-2.086) (-2.740) SAGE1 -0.0169 -0.00608 -0.00582 0.252*** 0.000179 -0.00308 0.0200 0.00598 0.0754*** -0.00711 0.0481*** (-1.041) (-0.425) (-0.351) (8.803) (0.00543) (-0.278) (1.296) (0.288) (7.108) (-0.596) (3.817) SAGE3 -0.0301 -0.0301* -0.0569*** -0.0165 0.0239 -0.0248* -0.0174 -0.0387 0.0213** 0.139*** 0.120*** (-1.326) (-1.682) (-2.757) (-0.476) (0.582) (-1.682) (-0.889) (-1.477) (2.188) (7.627) (7.862) LAND1 -0.0591** -0.0540** -0.00332 -0.0496 0.0553 -0.0323* -0.0336 -0.0253 0.0319** 0.00967 0.0305* (-2.317) (-2.298) (-0.124) (-0.960) (1.106) (-1.777) (-1.487) (-0.760) (1.984) (0.577) (1.646) LAND2 0.00487 0.0145 0.0217 -0.0121 -0.0376 -0.00290 0.00534 0.0211 -0.0192 -0.00180 -0.0127 (0.309) (1.040) (1.280) (-0.304) (-1.031) (-0.267) (0.425) (1.001) (-1.385) (-0.161) (-0.842) HOME -0.105 0.0550 0.0923 -0.175 0.172 0.0142 0.00441 0.0144 -0.0202 -0.0639 -0.0723 (-0.797) (0.504) (0.836) (-0.948) (0.749) (0.176) (0.0427) (0.106) (-0.344) (-0.774) (-1.093) POOR -0.0679 -0.0764** -0.0316 -0.0973 0.0154 -0.0237 0.0162 -0.00133 -0.0290 -0.00845 -0.0193 (-1.636) (-2.175) (-0.813) (-1.407) (0.179) (-0.829) (0.394) (-0.0257) (-1.139) (-0.255) (-0.582) INSU -0.0238** -0.00941 0.0250** 0.0324 0.0267 0.00836 0.0131 0.0113 0.000824 -0.00722 -0.00752 230 (-2.171) (-0.953) (2.139) (1.642) (1.145) (1.063) (1.139) (0.771) (0.155) (-0.917) (-0.989) CO135 0.319 0.336 1.791** 0.610 0.252 0.822** 0.959 0.752 0.103 0.746 0.797 (0.378) (0.422) (2.236) (0.522) (0.120) (2.043) (1.152) (0.693) (1.017) (1.135) (1.169) COFAR 0.133 0.00248 -0.477 -0.767 0.222 -0.304** -0.579 -0.0688 -0.0273 -0.0102 -0.0184 (0.427) (0.00980) (-1.180) (-1.471) (0.167) (-2.324) (-1.169) (-0.103) (-0.418) (-0.128) (-0.411) ROAD -0.114 -0.0870 -1.209** 0.232 0.112 -0.763** -1.290*** -0.477 0.0369 -0.0192 0.0340 (-0.167) (-0.129) (-2.206) (0.221) (0.0635) (-2.230) (-2.687) (-0.860) (0.598) (-0.237) (0.740) IMARK 0.561*** 0.651*** 1.113*** 1.490 1.959* 0.459 0.637*** 0.564 0.0194 0.482 0.275 (3.544) (3.447) (2.638) (1.195) (1.870) (1.083) (2.793) (0.989) (0.264) (1.186) (1.045) REGI1 is based REGI2 -0.167 -0.599 -1.169** -1.708 -4.075*** -0.484 -0.0931 -0.411 -0.0259 -0.813 -0.599 (-0.226) (-0.937) (-2.364) (-1.345) (-3.356) (-0.914) (-0.237) (-0.518) (-0.239) (-1.511) (-1.362) REGI3 -0.382 -0.740 -1.361** -2.472* -2.730** -0.380 -0.502 -0.305 -0.0530 -0.478 -0.287 (-0.459) (-0.968) (-1.963) (-1.801) (-2.296) (-0.673) (-1.349) (-0.343) (-0.465) (-1.146) (-1.042) REGI4 -0.902 -1.083 -0.906 -0.242 -2.418** -0.172 0.577 -0.479 -0.552 -0.515 -0.401 (-1.117) (-1.534) (-1.557) (-0.189) (-2.359) (-0.346) (0.954) (-0.570) (-0.855) (-1.263) (-1.130) REGI5 -0.835 -0.968 -0.891 -0.570 -3.323** -0.281 0.301 -0.348 0.0108 -0.507 -0.286 (-1.036) (-1.337) (-1.279) (-0.382) (-2.175) (-0.471) (0.596) (-0.347) (0.129) (-1.246) (-1.056) REGI6 -0.742 -1.026 -2.036*** -0.625 -2.533 -0.910 -0.936* -0.706 -0.0126 -0.448 -0.242 (-0.748) (-1.109) (-2.877) (-0.397) (-1.379) (-1.581) (-1.797) (-0.909) (-0.118) (-1.076) (-0.880) Constant -0.00119 0.208 1.403** 0.0435 0.373 0.495 0.782 0.115 -0.0750 -0.0984 -0.131 (-0.00120) (0.228) (2.402) (0.0403) (0.203) (1.217) (1.511) (0.196) (-0.695) (-0.880) (-1.404) Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively 231 APPENDIX 7.8 Impact of HS1A and the Role of Microcredit – Without VFE VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW HS1A (β1) -0.00882 -0.0169 0.0669** 0.0832* 0.313*** 0.0138 -0.0218 0.0479 -0.00417 0.0117 -0.000247 (-0.292) (-0.661) (2.299) (1.761) (5.919) (0.682) (-0.783) (1.295) (-0.289) (0.563) (-0.0134) HS1A*CR (β2) 0.000469 0.000326 0.000632 -0.00357 0.0127** 0.000263 0.00832*** 0.00388 -0.00228 -0.000824 -0.00216 (0.120) (0.0977) (0.214) (-0.546) (2.304) (0.145) (2.765) (1.119) (-0.980) (-0.253) (-0.846) MARI 0.0365 -0.00809 0.0230 -0.0439 0.116 -0.0257 -0.0440 0.00795 -0.0107 0.0630* 0.0395 (0.877) (-0.232) (0.570) (-0.666) (1.418) (-0.839) (-1.066) (0.154) (-0.661) (1.765) (1.411) GENDER 0.0655* 0.0723** 0.00780 -0.0450 -0.0165 0.0113 0.00162 -0.0343 -0.00194 -0.0355 -0.0219 (1.852) (2.363) (0.215) (-0.730) (-0.231) (0.409) (0.0438) (-0.743) (-0.142) (-1.187) (-0.914) ETHI 0.122*** 0.123*** 0.0701* -0.0370 -0.0378 0.0312 0.0296 0.122** 0.0173 -0.0415 0.00135 (3.060) (3.452) (1.791) (-0.574) (-0.459) (1.127) (0.692) (2.425) (0.887) (-1.427) (0.0520) GRAD -0.00211 -0.00458 -0.0107*** 0.00701 -0.000937 -0.00239 -0.000184 -0.00913** 0.00322* 0.00592** 0.00704*** (-0.606) (-1.552) (-3.179) (1.226) (-0.133) (-0.986) (-0.0541) (-2.071) (1.733) (2.349) (2.974) SIZE 0.0322** -0.0151 -0.0347*** -0.0205 -0.00167 0.0371*** 0.0441*** 0.0387** -0.0218*** 0.0118 -0.0108 (2.518) (-1.354) (-2.836) (-0.951) (-0.0661) (4.076) (3.536) (2.422) (-3.559) (1.326) (-1.468) SFEM -0.00780 0.0161 -0.00184 -0.0141 -0.0339 -0.00937 -0.00763 -0.00659 -0.0139* -0.0157 -0.0279*** (-0.549) (1.230) (-0.121) (-0.555) (-1.118) (-0.870) (-0.507) (-0.332) (-1.915) (-1.566) (-3.277) SAGE1 -0.0214* -0.0129 -0.00956 0.247*** 0.00756 -0.000446 0.0234* -0.00294 0.0706*** -0.00382 0.0483*** (-1.646) (-1.083) (-0.723) (10.57) (0.274) (-0.0478) (1.790) (-0.170) (7.747) (-0.414) (4.979) SAGE3 -0.0596*** -0.0437*** -0.0559*** -0.0199 0.0301 -0.0380*** -0.0284* -0.0526** 0.0225*** 0.118*** 0.107*** (-3.204) (-2.909) (-3.236) (-0.745) (0.878) (-2.977) (-1.688) (-2.381) (3.074) (7.215) (8.165) LAND1 -0.0371** -0.0313* -0.00118 -0.0540 0.0403 -0.00540 -0.00774 -0.0186 0.00331 -0.00764 -0.00146 (-2.187) (-1.951) (-0.0672) (-1.559) (1.122) (-0.392) (-0.431) (-0.745) (0.282) (-0.555) (-0.108) LAND2 0.00299 0.00497 0.00742 -0.0201 -0.0559** -0.00887 -0.00505 0.0142 -0.00634 0.00430 -0.00207 (0.330) (0.572) (0.622) (-0.780) (-2.126) (-0.916) (-0.391) (0.778) (-0.656) (0.392) (-0.181) HOME -0.0796 -0.0179 0.0177 0.0823 -0.281 0.00438 -0.0415 0.0283 0.0275 -0.0399 0.00311 (-0.892) (-0.250) (0.210) (0.543) (-1.465) (0.0679) (-0.481) (0.264) (0.664) (-0.913) (0.0623) POOR -0.0457 -0.0557* -0.00891 -0.0968* 0.0164 -0.0203 0.0112 0.0288 -0.0151 0.00606 -0.00739 (-1.310) (-1.940) (-0.276) (-1.822) (0.237) (-0.838) (0.324) (0.677) (-0.742) (0.230) (-0.285) INSU -0.00516 0.00160 0.0203** 0.0212 0.0347** 0.0145** 0.0145 0.00273 -0.00258 -0.00528 -0.00617 232 (-0.627) (0.213) (2.450) (1.459) (1.990) (2.347) (1.587) (0.253) (-0.600) (-0.878) (-1.156) CO135 0.0313 0.0275 0.00598 0.0418 0.0234 0.00724 -0.0838** 0.0146 0.00597 0.00737 0.0244 (0.914) (0.896) (0.165) (0.680) (0.306) (0.295) (-2.404) (0.309) (0.287) (0.270) (0.918) COFAR 0.0627** 0.0545** 0.0294 0.0448 -0.0374 0.0387* 0.110*** 0.0228 -0.00422 0.00882 0.00337 (2.022) (1.983) (0.932) (0.848) (-0.575) (1.711) (3.479) (0.564) (-0.256) (0.399) (0.158) ROAD 0.00856 0.0147 -0.00456 0.0466 0.0553 0.0241 -0.0450 0.0197 0.0282 0.0276 0.0538* (0.233) (0.451) (-0.116) (0.683) (0.668) (0.894) (-1.159) (0.393) (1.129) (0.966) (1.901) IMARK -0.0341 -0.0163 0.0241 -0.0161 -0.0404 -0.00860 0.0455** 0.0290 -0.00478 -0.0148 -0.0264* (-1.457) (-0.787) (1.041) (-0.419) (-0.872) (-0.530) (1.981) (0.969) (-0.424) (-0.907) (-1.713) REGI1 is based REGI2 -0.0442 -0.0428 0.0330 0.000269 -0.0839 -0.0597** -0.0448 0.0730 -0.0263 -0.00176 -0.0295 (-1.067) (-1.167) (0.843) (0.00414) (-1.041) (-2.179) (-1.089) (1.396) (-1.539) (-0.0626) (-1.143) REGI3 -0.0321 -0.0129 -0.0241 0.0203 -0.113* -0.0800*** -0.105*** -0.0358 -0.0131 -0.00470 -0.0152 (-0.924) (-0.445) (-0.732) (0.387) (-1.766) (-3.356) (-3.167) (-0.834) (-1.020) (-0.196) (-0.694) REGI4 0.115** 0.120*** 0.0157 0.0727 -0.117 -0.116*** -0.0943* 0.0309 -0.0495** -0.00861 -0.0273 (2.221) (2.640) (0.304) (0.917) (-1.123) (-3.132) (-1.885) (0.455) (-2.267) (-0.246) (-0.879) REGI5 -0.0646 -0.0746* -0.0280 0.000423 -0.136 -0.00227 -0.0222 0.0600 -0.00326 -0.0115 -0.0132 (-1.306) (-1.833) (-0.624) (0.00569) (-1.566) (-0.0623) (-0.495) (1.042) (-0.204) (-0.451) (-0.538) REGI6 -0.0416 -0.0758** -0.104*** 0.0679 -0.0764 -0.138*** -0.146*** -0.0802* -0.00488 0.0199 0.0186 (-1.047) (-2.300) (-2.849) (1.138) (-1.091) (-5.458) (-3.896) (-1.701) (-0.312) (0.766) (0.789) Constant 0.0249 0.126 0.139 -0.143 0.156 -0.0163 0.0165 -0.189 -0.0407 -0.00855 -0.0567 (0.216) (1.350) (1.241) (-0.759) (0.648) (-0.197) (0.143) (-1.361) (-0.745) (-0.132) (-0.843) Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively 233 APPENDIX 8.1 Access to Credit by Poverty status Source NTP Commune Poverty Status Total No Yes No Yes Microcredit 401 (45.3%) 484 (54.7%) 649 (73.3%) 236 (26.7%) 885 (100%) Non-microcredit 1005 (53.0%) 891 (47.0%) 1496 (78.9%) 400 (21.1%) 1896 (100%) Formal 975 (51.1%) 933 (48.9%) 1468 (76.9%) 440 (23.1%) 1908 (100%) Informal 487 (50.4%) 480 (49.6%) 755 (78.1%) 212 (21.9%) 967 (100%) Any Sources 1355 (51.1%) 1299 (48.9%) 2058 (77.5%) 596 (22.5%) 2654 (100%) Total 3849 (54.3%) 3239 (45.7%) 5514 (77.8%) 1574 (22.2%) 7088 (100%) 234 APPENDIX 8.2 Difficulties in Accessing to Agricultural Input (Seed, Fertilizers) Difficulties Non-adopters Adopters Whole Sample No. % No. % No. % No difficulties 305 63.7% 1,424 72.7% 1729 70.9% Lack of suppliers 18 3.8% 84 4.3% 102 4.2% Prices too high 37 7.7% 217 11.1% 254 10.4% Not enough information 16 3.3% 55 2.8% 71 2.9% Not able to buy on credit 15 3.1% 73 3.7% 88 3.6% Not enough access to credit 6 1.3% 4 0.2% 10 0.4% Poor transport infrastructure 76 15.9% 97 5.0% 173 7.1% Other Difficulties 6 1.3% 5 0.3% 11 0.5% Total 479 100.0% 1,959 100.0% 2,438 100.0%