Narrowing gap between the banks and the poor. As shown in Appendix
8.1, poor households or households in poor communes are more likely to access
microcredit, but the ratio of the poor and households in poor communes
participating in microcredit programs are still low. The reason may be from the
rural households themselves (demand side). These households are normally cashconstrained and have high demand for cash. However, these households are
normally very risk averse and less self-confident, thereby they do not apply for
borrowing. Therefore, banking system in the rural areas should be developed to
make the banks closer and more friendly to the poor, which thereby enhances their
accessibility to microcredit programs.
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38 -0.16
Extension Visit 0.3746*** 3.09 5,509 1.15 472.6* 1.96
Information 0.1194 1.27 -1,719 -0.45 230.8 1.18
Education -0.0194 -1.60 341.5 0.51 -40.26* -1.89
Age 0.0015 0.41 309.5 1.40 -0.155 -0.03
Marital Status -0.1105 -0.60 15,530* 1.79 319.7 0.92
Gender 0.1674 0.99 -2,172 -0.31 -237.8 -0.62
Ethnicity 0.2828** 1.97 -6,371 -0.93 535.7** 2.01
Household Size -0.0105 -0.32 -1,807 -0.99 -47.09 -0.81
Work-age member 0.0044 0.11 4,678 1.64 116.3* 1.69
Agricultural Labor 0.0564 1.30 3,535 1.37 168.5** 2.18
Business Help 0.0772 0.87 2,728 0.66 337.3* 1.86
Oranization 0.0043 0.61 454.8 1.55 24.73** 2.18
National Program 0.0385 0.46 -11,594* -1.96 -249.6** -2.01
Permanent Market -0.2380** -2.49 16,138* 1.71 108.6 0.61
Agri-Development -0.0312 -0.86 2,184* 1.70 -19.70 -0.23
Irrigation Program 0.0633 1.32 753.6 0.44 117.4 1.50
Microcredit*Production
asset
0.0178 1.14 -251.1 -1.37 5.215 1.45
Microcredit*Distance 0.0159 0.40 767.6 0.86 51.30 0.43
Microcredit*Market -0.1125 -0.46 -12,662 -1.06 -416.7 -0.92
Mekong Delta River is based
Red River Delta 1.3680*** 7.75 -
188,494*
-1.91 -878.3* -1.94
North East 1.7224*** 8.20 -76,176 -1.89 -267.7 -0.53
North West -0.0263 -0.13 -31,111* -1.76 -1,061* -1.75
North Central 2.2199*** 5.49 -61,281* -1.84 -195.1 -0.39
South Cetral Coast 0.4435*** 2.75 -77,532* -1.89 -1,154** -2.49
Central Highlands 0.6716*** 3.77 -40,804* -1.86 -731.4 -1.06
Constant 0.1151 0.34 -79,922* -1.70 43.11 0.05
SIGMA 9,093*** 3.81 2,774*** 7.13
Obs 1,920 1,586 1,920
Log-L -706 -12,422 -15,090
χ2 test Double-Hurdle versus Tobit, λ = 3924 > χ2(38) = 61.16
208
APPENDIX 5.11
Impact of microcredit on diversifying income sources
Other Crops Livestock Self-Employment
Variable PROBIT
PROBIT PROBIT
Coef t-stat
Coef t-stat Coef t-stat
Microcredit 0.0498 0.42 0.3249** 2.46 0.2669** 2.45
Non-Microcredit 0.0527 0.70 0.1877** 2.29 0.07 0.94
Poverty status -0.0354 -0.37 -0.2302** -2.28 -0.2753*** -2.95
Savings 0.0004 0.82 0.0016** 2.56 0.0030*** 4.98
Production Asset -0.0006 -0.69 -0.0022** -2.44 0.0055 1.52
Durable Asset 0.0007 1.15 0.0011* 1.69 0.0015* 1.83
Remittance 0.002 1.05 -0.0042** -2.47 -0.0047* -1.74
Livestock 5.8099*** 3.46 -0.0045* -1.84
Wage Income -0.0018** -2.32 -0.0033*** -3.46 -0.0089*** -6.02
Non-Farm -0.3363*** -4.08 -0.3938*** -4.35
Other Crop 0.5586*** 6.84 -0.3155*** -4.05
Improved seeds 0.017 0.17 -0.0425 -0.41 -0.1611* -1.77
Irrigated Land -1.1297*** -4.30 -0.042 -0.58 -0.1270* -1.73
Cultivation Land 1.1703*** 4.45 -0.0446 -0.69 0.0579 1.03
Distance 0.0157 1.23 0.0129 1.16 -0.0163 -1.34
Extension Visit 0.0848 0.84 -0.0624 -0.61 -0.0936 -0.92
Information 0.2097** 2.51 0.2336*** 2.71 -0.1791** -2.15
Education 0.0089 0.80 0.0113 0.97 0.0206* 1.91
Age -0.001 -0.34 -0.0024 -0.72 -0.005 -1.56
Marital Status -0.1667 -1.15 -0.1174 -0.77 0.3067** 2.05
Gender 0.1681 1.21 0.0228 0.16 -0.3054** -2.20
Ethnicity -0.2015 -1.51 -0.2428* -1.80 0.4542*** 3.47
Household Size 0.0343 1.12 0.001 0.03 0.1349*** 4.96
Work-age member -0.0313 -0.89 0.0308 0.81 0.0596* 1.65
Agricultural Labor 0.0831** 2.04 0.1185*** 2.94 -0.1520*** -3.99
Business Help 0.1536* 1.96 0.2175** 2.56 0.1774** 2.34
Organization 0.0119** 1.98 0.0115* 1.78 0.0178*** 2.92
National Program 0.0756 1.07 0.021 0.27 -0.1324* -1.91
Permanent Market -0.0483 -0.60 0.0059 0.07 0.3445*** 4.42
Agri-Development 0.0378 1.14 -0.0075 -0.21 -0.022 -0.62
Irrigation Program -0.0005 -0.01 0.0113 0.21 0.0312 0.84
Region Dummies Mekong Delta River is
Based
Red River Delta -0.7824*** -4.88 0.5142*** 3.38 0.6012*** 3.28
North East 0.1349 0.78 1.4672*** 8.67 0.0753 0.40
North West -0.305 -1.43 1.7498*** 7.63 0.7555*** 3.66
North Central -0.026 -0.13 2.2399*** 7.62 0.1627 0.75
South Central
Coast
-0.8019*** -5.05 0.6631*** 4.28 0.2295 1.23
entral Highlands 0.5435*** 2.82 0.5310*** 3.16 -0.3758* -1.89
Constant 0.2525 0.84 -0.5439* -1.76 -1.5283*** -4.98
SIGMA
Obs 2438 2438 2438
Log–L -977.1 -844.3 -964.6
Note: *, ** and *** : Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively.
209
APPENDIX 5.12
Variables used for Analyzing Impact of Microcredit on Adoption
Variables Description Expected
Sign
Dependent Variables
Adoption = 1 if farmer adopts any modern varieties, 0 otherwise
Adoption Intensity Expenditure on modern varieties (Thousand Dong)
Explanatory Variables
Microcredit =1 if borrower, 0 otherwise (+)
Non-Microcredit =1 if borrower, 0 otherwise (+)
Poverty status =1 of poor household, 0 otherwise (-)
Livestock Value of livestock (Million Dong) (+) / (-)
Production Asset Value of production assets (Million Dong) (+)
Durable Asset Value of durable asset (Million Dong) (+)
Savings Value of savings (Million Dong) (+)
Remittance Value of remittance (Million Dong) (+)
Irrigated Land Area of irrigated cultivated Plot (Hectare) (+)
Total Land Total area of cultivated Land (Hectare) (+) / (-)
Wage Income Value of wage income (Million Dong) (+) / (-)
Non-farm =1 if farmers involve in non-farm (non-wage) activities,
0=otherwise)
(+) / (-)
Other Crop =1 if farmers plant any other (non-rice) crops, 0 otherwise (-)
Household Size Number of HH members (+)
Agricultural Labor Number of members actively involving in agricultural
activities
(+)
Working-age member Number of working-members (15-60 years old) (+)
Extension Visit =1 if Farmer is visit by agricultural extension staff, 0
otherwise
(+)
Distance Distance from farmer’s house to main road (kilometers) (-)
Information =1 if farmer receives any seed information, 0 otherwise) (+)
Education Education level of HHH (Grade finished) (+)
Age Age of household head (Number of Years) (+)
Marital Status =1 if married HHH, 0 otherwise (+)
Ethnicity =1 if ethnicity is Kinh (main ethnicity), 0 otherwise (+)
Business Help =1 if HH has business support, 0 otherwise) (+)
Organization Number of organizations that HH participate in (+)
National Program =1 if commune of national target program, 0 otherwise (-)
Permanent Market =1 if commune has daily permanent market, 0 otherwise (+)
Agri-Development No. of agricultural development program in the commune (+)
Irrigation Program No. of irrigation program in the commune (+)
Red River Delta =1 if HH resides in Ha Tay (+) / (-)
North East =1 if HH resides in Lao Cai or Phu Tho (+) / (-)
North West =1 if HH resides in or Dien Bien or Lai Chau (+) / (-)
North Central =1 if HH resides in Nghe An (+) / (-)
South Central Coast =1 if HH resides in Quang Nam or Khanh Hoa (+) / (-)
Central Highlands =1 if HH resides in Dak Lak, Dak Nong or Lam Dong (+) / (-)
Mekong River Delta =1 if HH resides in Long An (+) / (-)
Note: Dummies are in Italic; (+): Positive Effect; (-): Negative Effect
HH=Household; HHH=Household Head
210
211
APPENDIX 5.13
Distribution of borrowers, by adopters and non-adopters
The statistics show that among microcredit and non-microcredit borrowers,
the adopter accounts for larger proportion than the non-adopters.
Figure 5.13 - Distribution of borrowers, by adopters and non-adopters
Microcredit Non-microcredit
Non-adopter 52 149
Adopter 198 536
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
N
u
m
b
er
o
f
b
o
rr
o
w
er
s
212
APPENDIX 6.1
Definition of welfare variables
Variables Definition
TOTAL OUTPUT VALUE/ INCOME (TOV/INC)
Agriculture TOV/INC from all agricultural activities including
cultivation, raising livestock and aquaculture.
Crop TOV/INC from cultivation activities.
Livestock TOV/INC from rearing activities including livestock and
aquaculture.
Self-employment TOV/INC from self-employment activities.
Common property
resources
TOV/INC from common property resources activities,
such as forestry, sea or river. For instance, collecting
timber or wood, catching aquaculture.
Wage INC from salaried sources.
Total earned sources TOV/INC from such sources as agriculture, self-
employment, common property resources and wage.
FOOD CONSUMPTION
All food Expenditure on all food, including both agricultural and
industrial food.
Agricultural food Expenditure on agricultural food. For instance, meat,
fish, fruit, etc.
Industrial food Expenditure on industrial food. For instance, milk,
canned food, beverages, eating outside house, etc.
DURABLE ASSET VALUE
All durable asset Value of all durable assets currently owned.
Production asset Value of all production durable assets currently owned.
For instance, Feed grinding machine, rice milling
machine, pesticide sprayers, etc.
Non-production
asset
Value of all non-production (consumer) durable assets
currently owned. For instance, television, video player,
cassette player, telephone, refrigerator, etc.
Note: Total output value is the value from production, barter or self-consumption (Million
Dong/year)
Income equal total output value less intermediary production cost (Million Dong/year)
Durable Asset Value (Million Dong); Food consumption (Million Dong/Month)
213
APPENDIX 6.2
Variables for estimation of propensity score
Variable
T=0 T=1
Treated Control Diff
Treated Control Diff
Education of HHH 6.21 6.30 -0.093 6.68 6.56 0.128
Age of HHH 47.22 49.76 -2.54*** 48.63 51.46 -2.835***
Marital Status of HHH 0.86 0.83 0.032 0.87 0.82 0.056**
Gender of HHH 0.86 0.82 0.0408* 0.85 0.80 0.053**
Ethnic of HHH 0.58 0.66 -0.081*** 0.58 0.66 -0.075***
Microcredit 0.29 0.15 0.145***
Non-microcredit 0.32 0.25 0.062** 0.13 0.29 -0.158***
Poverty Status 0.27 0.25 0.012 0.20 0.19 0.016
Saving 17.40 27.83 -10.43 20.22 30.75 -10.53**
Agricultural land 1.03 0.76 0.266*** 1.03 0.73 0.309***
Residential land 0.14 0.10 0.043*** 0.13 0.10 0.035**
Household size 4.89 4.47 0.427*** 4.86 4.41 0.451***
Dependence ratio 0.30 0.35 -0.051*** 0.29 0.36 -0.068***
Agricultural labor 3.05 2.45 0.597*** 3.19 2.49 0.704***
Wage labor 1.09 1.02 0.0735 1.18 1.20 -0.024
Self-employed labor 0.41 0.45 -0.042 0.44 0.37 0.068
Distance to main road 2.03 2.15 -0.115 1.80 1.86 -0.054
Social capital 7.27 7.43 -0.156 7.60 7.36 0.246
Poor commune 0.61 0.51 0.095*** 0.48 0.38 0.095***
Market 0.52 0.57 -0.043 0.63 0.67 -0.049*
Red River Delta 0.13 0.17 -0.038* 0.13 0.17 -0.038*
North East 0.16 0.19 -0.030 0.16 0.19 -0.030
North West 0.21 0.17 0.033 0.21 0.17 0.033
North Central 0.04 0.07 -0.032** 0.04 0.07 -0.032**
South Central Coast 0.04 0.13 -0.096*** 0.04 0.13 -0.096***
Central Highlands 0.34 0.19 0.150*** 0.34 0.19 0.150***
Mekong River Delta 0.10 0.09 0.012 0.10 0.09 0.012
Obs 313 3231 313 3231
Note: Difference = Mean (Treatment) - Mean (Control)
Continuous variables are tested using ttest; Dummies in Italic are tested using prtest.
*, ** and *** : Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively.
214
APPENDIX 6.3
Outcome variables for estimation of the impact of microcredit
VARIABLE
T=0
T=1
Treated Control Diff
Treated Control Diff
TOTAL OUTPUT
VALUE
Agriculture 72.048 47.714 24.33*** 79.293 53.576 25.72***
Crop 45.528 32.011 13.52*** 52.359 35.133 17.23***
Livestock 26.519 15.703 10.82*** 26.934 18.443 8.491
Self-employment 30.019 69.311 -39.29 60.543 70.953 -10.41
Common Property
Resources
2.315 1.715 0.600 2.078 2.125 -0.047
Wage 16.530 22.971 -6.441*** 23.464 30.437 -6.973**
Total Earned Sources 120.912 141.712 -20.80 165.378 157.092 8.286
Total Earned Non-Wage
Sources
104.382 118.740 -14.36 141.914 126.654 15.26
INCOME
Agriculture 33.950 23.411 10.54*** 35.030 26.935 8.094**
Crop 4.172 4.311 -0.139 2.925 5.116 -2.191
Livestock 13.060 6.776 6.284*** 10.571 8.076 2.496
Self-employment 7.534 15.085 -7.551 16.051 16.488 -0.437
Common Property
Resources
2.002 1.614 0.388 1.925 1.885 0.041
Wage 16.530 22.971 -6.441*** 23.464 30.437 -6.973**
Total Earned Sources 60.016 63.081 -3.065 76.470 75.745 0.725
Total Earned Non-Wage
Sources
43.486 40.110 3.376 53.006 45.307 7.698
FOOD
EXPENDITURE
All food 1.415 1.460 -0.045 1.509 1.477 0.032
Agricultural Food 0.926 0.897 0.028 0.886 0.871 0.015
Industrial Food 0.489 0.563 -0.074 0.623 0.605 0.017
DURABLE ASSET VALUE
All Durable Asset 31.851 35.622 -3.772 37.878 38.775 -0.897
Production Asset 2.717 2.198 0.519 6.742 3.364 3.378*
Non-Production Asset 29.133 33.424 -4.291 31.136 35.411 -4.275
Obs 313 3231 313 3231
Note: Difference = Mean (Treatment) - Mean (Control)
Unit in Million dong
*, ** and *** : Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively.
215
APPENDIX 6.4
Probit estimations for calculation of propensity score
Variable Coef. t-stat
Microcredit at T=0 (1=Yes) 0.4612*** 5.77
Non-Microcredit at T=1 (1=Yes) -0.6867*** -8.04
Non-Microcredit at T=0 (1=Yes) 0.1881** 2.54
Education level of HHH 0.0066 0.63
Age of HHH -0.0079*** -2.69
Marital Status of HHH (1=Married) -0.1677 -1.32
Gender of HHH (1=Male) 0.0542 0.44
Ethnicity of HHH (1=Kinh) 0.1068 1.01
Poverty Status (1=Poor) 0.0195 0.24
Saving Value -0.0020** -2.37
Agricultural Land -0.0101 -0.18
Residential Land 0.1523 1.07
Total Land 0.0211 0.44
Household Size 0.0094 0.37
Dependence Ratio -0.2620* -1.79
Agricultural Labor 0.1123*** 3.59
Non-Wage (Non-farm) Labor -0.0249 -0.74
Wage Labor -0.0360 -0.9
Distance to main road -0.0183* -1.89
Social Capital 0.0088 1.52
Poor Commune (1=Poor) 0.0004 0.01
Market (1=Yes) 0.0675 0.91
Mekong River Delta (Base)
Red River Delta -0.3074** -2.08
North East -0.3874** -2.57
North West -0.1281 -0.81
North Central -0.5288*** -2.72
South Central Coast -0.7818 -4.4
Central Highlands 0.0288 0.21
Constant -1.0333*** -4.00
Max VIF 4.53
Balancing test Satisfied
Off-support 148 [151]
On-Support 3396 [3393]
Note: The dummies in Italic (0=Otherwise).
*, ** and ***: Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively.
Common support region is identified using such commands as diff and pscore [in bracket].
216
APPENDIX 6.5
Common support region
Treatment assignment
Common Support
Total
Off Support On-support
Control 147 3,084 3,231
Treated 1 312 313
Total 148 3,396 3,544
APPENDIX 6.6
Distribution of the treated and the control, on- and off-support
Figure 6.6 – Common support region
0
2
4
6
8
1
0
k
d
e
n
s
it
y
_
p
s
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5
propensity score
treated control
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5
Propensity Score
Untreated: Off support Untreated: On support
Treated: On support Treated: Off support
217
APPENDIX 7.1
Variables for analysis of impact of health shocks and role of microcredit
Code Variable Description
PANEL 1: Outcome variables
Income
EINC Earned Revenue Revenue per capita from earned sources,
including production, employment, self-
business, common property resources.
TINC Total Revenue Revenue per capita from all sources,
including earned sources and un-earned
sources such as private and public transfer.
Consumption
TCON Total expenditure Real total expenditure per capita
ECON Education expenditure Real expenditures on education per capita
HCON Healthcare expenditure Real Healthcare expenditure per capita
FCON Food expenditure Real Food and drink expenditure per capita
NFCD Daily non-food
expenditure
Real Daily Non-food (non-education, non-
medical, non-other-non-food) expenditure
per capita. For instance, gas, petroleum,
shampoo, soap, newspaper, regular worship
activities, brush and tooth paste and so
forth.
NFCA Other (Annual) Non-
food expenditure
Real Other Non-food (non-education, non-
medical, non-daily-non-food) expenditure
per capita. For instance, durables, home
appliances, housing, clean water, sanitary
system, fees and charges on administrative
and legal services, taxes and so forth.
Labor
CHILD Children with job Number of children with at least one job
OLD Elderly with job Number of elderly with at least one job
NWW Out-of-working-age
member with job
Number of out-of-working-age members
with at least one job
218
CODE Variable Description
PANEL 2: Other control variables
MARI Marital Status of HHH Dummy (1=Married; 0=single,
widow, divorced)
GENDER Gender of HHH Dummy (1=Male; 0=Female)
GRAD Education of HHH Grade completed (from 1 to 12)
ETHI Ethnic of HHH Dummy (1=Kinh; 0=Otherwise)
SIZE Household size Number of members
SFEM Female members Number of female members
SAGE1 Children members Number of members less than or
equal to 14 years old
SAGE3 Elderly members Number of members above or equal
to 61 years old
LAND1 Land for cultivation and
raising aquaculture
Total area of land used for
cultivation and water surface used
for raising aquaculture (Hectare)
LAND2 Total land Total area of land used or managed
by households (Hectare)
POOR Poverty status Dummy (1=Poor, 0=Non-poor)
HOME Private house Dummy (1=Own; 0=Renting)
INSU Insurance card Number of Insurance Card
possessed by households
CO135 Commune of program 135 Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
COFAR Remote commune Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
ROAD Commune accessible by all-
weather road
Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
IMARK Market within commune Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
REGI1 Red River Delta region; Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
REGI2 Midlands and Northern
Mountainous Areas
Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
REGI3 Northern and Coastal
Central Region
Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
REGI4 Central Highlands Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
REGI5 Southeast Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
REGI6 Mekong Delta Dummy (1=Yes; 0=Otherwise)
Note: Dummies are in italic.
219
220
APPENDIX 7.2
Unanticipation of health shocks
HS1W in 2012 (HS1Wt) HS1A in 2012 (HS1At)
HS1W in 2010 (HS1Wt-1) 0.142*** 0.207***
(5.343) (8.434)
HS1A in 2010 (HS1At-1)
0.103*** 0.209***
(4.167) (10.44)
MARI 0.0104 0.0145
0.0448 0.0441*
(0.496) (0.851)
(1.439) (1.733)
GENDER 0.0129 0.0140
-0.00658 0.00530
(0.652) (0.837)
(-0.232) (0.225)
ETHI 0.00979 0.0331*
0.0863 0.0631***
(0.308) (1.930)
(1.515) (2.628)
GRAD -0.000878 -0.00199
-0.000584 -0.00261
(-0.397) (-1.181)
(-0.209) (-1.175)
SIZE 0.0274*** 0.0203***
0.0166* 0.00688
(3.791) (3.095)
(1.726) (0.825)
SFEM 0.00969 0.0180**
0.00930 0.0219**
(1.119) (2.239)
(0.791) (2.153)
SAGE12 -0.0453*** -0.0511***
0.00553 -0.00546
(-5.408) (-7.205)
(0.524) (-0.594)
SAGE6 -0.0703*** -0.0601***
0.0244* 0.0100
(-7.359) (-8.997)
(1.853) (0.919)
LAND1 0.00264 0.0184*
-0.000811 0.0192
(0.256) (1.803)
(-0.0608) (1.523)
LAND2 -0.00125 -0.00244
-0.00249 -0.00465
(-0.248) (-0.404)
(-0.389) (-0.587)
HOME 0.0358 0.0514
0.0546 0.0642
(1.009) (1.596)
(0.825) (1.212)
POOR -0.0177 -0.00664
0.00307 0.00603
(-0.992) (-0.474)
(0.129) (0.295)
ISURE 0.00759 0.0105**
0.0114 0.0142**
(1.314) (2.189)
(1.480) (2.387)
CO135 0.0681 -0.00745
-0.706 -0.0114
(0.393) (-0.431)
(-1.160) (-0.480)
COFAR 0.0897 -0.0282*
0.359 -0.0538**
(0.631) (-1.680)
(1.110) (-2.421)
ROAD -0.0970 -7.42e-05
0.419 0.000793
(-0.597) (-0.00347)
(0.809) (0.0298)
IMARK -0.573 -0.00531
-0.402 0.00157
(-1.436) (-0.477)
(-0.916) (0.106)
REGI2 0.634 -0.0190
0.394 -0.00529
(1.537) (-1.225)
(0.880) (-0.243)
REGI3 1.400*** 0.00414
1.338*** 0.0294
(3.450) (0.280)
(2.976) (1.467)
REGI4 1.061** -0.00532
0.746 0.0711**
(2.012) (-0.225)
(1.185) (2.042)
REGI5 0.494 0.00539
0.348 0.0598**
(1.271) (0.248)
(0.559) (1.984)
REGI6 0.445 0.0931***
0.881 0.213***
(1.072) (4.822)
(1.294) (8.343)
Constant -0.0552 -0.0897**
-0.751 -0.136**
(-0.316) (-2.000)
(-1.429) (-2.024)
VFE With Without
With Without
Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021
Note: Robust t-statistics in parentheses
*** indicates that the coefficients are significant at 1%.
221
APPENDIX 7.3
First stage estimates using IV for HS1W
IV Model 1 IV Model 2 IV Model 3
Model 1a Model 1b Model 2a Model 2b Model 3a Model 3b
Commune Poverty Rate 13,659.9397** 1,093.7289 3,648.5445 1,061.7638
(2.0193) (0.7489) (0.9427) (0.7326)
Distance to Bank -243.7123* -1.4218 88.8183 1.5706
(-1.6981) (-0.0844) (0.9427) (0.0944)
HS1W 626.9243 1,041.2241** 626.9243 1,041.2513** 626.9243 1,036.2436**
(1.0492) (2.1590) (1.0492) (2.1591) (1.0492) (2.1431)
MARI -845.2798* -468.5526 -845.2798* -469.5609 -845.2798* -467.4307
(-1.7560) (-1.1266) (-1.7560) (-1.1305) (-1.7560) (-1.1239)
GENDER 381.1359 28.7795 381.1359 29.6914 381.1359 40.5524
(0.8772) (0.0789) (0.8772) (0.0815) (0.8772) (0.1115)
ETHI 101.8705 -594.5730 101.8705 -592.0406 101.8705 -696.8731
(0.0938) (-0.9531) (0.0938) (-0.9487) (0.0938) (-1.1657)
GRAD 119.1608** 103.3335** 119.1608** 103.4810** 119.1608** 103.4639**
(2.2130) (2.3661) (2.2130) (2.3708) (2.2130) (2.3697)
SIZE 476.4076*** 277.2925** 476.4076*** 277.4325** 476.4076*** 276.4138**
(3.0839) (2.0926) (3.0839) (2.0942) (3.0839) (2.0909)
SFEM -548.6763** -219.6011 -548.6763** -219.1086 -548.6763** -227.3900
(-2.3364) (-1.1068) (-2.3364) (-1.1049) (-2.3364) (-1.1439)
SAGE12 -230.5495 -411.6684** -230.5495 -412.7582** -230.5495 -411.7194**
(-1.1505) (-2.2017) (-1.1505) (-2.2168) (-1.1505) (-2.2029)
SAGE6 -389.7263* -620.2460*** -389.7263* -620.3566*** -389.7263* -628.1187***
(-1.8196) (-3.6644) (-1.8196) (-3.6637) (-1.8196) (-3.7169)
LAND1 -58.8141 -792.9602*** -58.8141 -793.3275*** -58.8141 -795.5234***
(-0.2084) (-2.7515) (-0.2084) (-2.7516) (-0.2084) (-2.7629)
LAND2 20.7281 567.1252** 20.7281 566.2769** 20.7281 571.5016**
(0.0818) (2.1716) (0.0818) (2.1743) (0.0818) (2.1898)
HOME 767.3200 1,180.8813*** 767.3200 1,181.3963*** 767.3200 1,203.8612***
(1.2304) (3.7743) (1.2304) (3.7747) (1.2304) (3.9030)
POOR 3,731.1428*** 3,977.1004*** 3,731.1428*** 3,977.1129*** 3,731.1428*** 4,046.0841***
(7.3412) (7.4342) (7.3412) (7.4353) (7.3412) (7.6155)
222
ISURE 70.4204 135.9132 70.4204 136.1313 70.4204 141.2917
(0.6028) (1.3628) (0.6028) (1.3664) (0.6028) (1.4334)
CO135 -308.6317 -198.2406 -3,317.6204 -201.7970 -4,414.2137* -57.0020
(-0.1158) (-0.3552) (-1.5756) (-0.3601) (-1.7061) (-0.1083)
COFAR 1,859.7922 581.7074 2,489.8352** 578.0149 2,719.4476** 612.5620
(1.4351) (1.2695) (1.9872) (1.2793) (2.0484) (1.3648)
ROAD -583.0596 430.7269 2,403.7349* 437.1220 3,492.2398* 406.3000
(-0.2772) (1.1071) (1.8886) (1.1337) (1.7281) (1.0505)
IMARK 1,217.9758 -551.0578** -2,687.7245* -551.7264** -4,111.1146* -571.4919**
(0.5210) (-2.0499) (-1.8208) (-2.0516) (-1.7286) (-2.1279)
REGI2 -2,023.0941 1,510.9221*** 2,764.4787* 1,507.8317*** 4,509.2578* 1,576.6798***
(-0.7117) (3.0497) (1.6951) (3.0597) (1.6567) (3.1926)
REGI3 4,233.8704 1,493.7910*** 1,649.2837 1,492.7548*** 707.3591 1,555.8851***
(1.5297) (3.4352) (0.8690) (3.4449) (0.3562) (3.7249)
REGI4 -4,915.8163** -285.4030 -3,212.4437 -290.0257 -2,591.6681 -271.1791
(-2.3500) (-0.6277) (-1.5810) (-0.6413) (-1.2406) (-0.5919)
REGI5 -9,297.4691* -272.4921 -812.3093 -274.1020 2,280.0152 -304.8192
(-1.7619) (-0.9081) (-0.2897) (-0.9147) (0.7465) (-1.0261)
REGI6 -642.2161 -234.0533 2,652.1227 -235.8311 3,852.7087 -233.8677
(-0.2956) (-0.8217) (1.5484) (-0.8296) (1.6216) (-0.8206)
Constant -1,260.1138 -816.2711 -4,431.6879** -829.2350 -5,587.5337** -635.9776
(-0.4732) (-0.9106) (-2.3065) (-0.9335) (-2.0338) (-0.7317)
VFE With Without With Without With Without
Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021
F(i,df) 2.04 0.28 0.89 0.54 0.89 0.1132
Prob>F 0.13 0.755 0.346 0.4639 0.346 0.9248
Note : Robust t-statistics in parentheses;
*, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively
aF-test for H0: Week instrumentts. If F-test > 10, reject H0, and vice versa.
223
APPENDIX 7.4
First stage estimates using IV for HS1A
IV Model 1 IV Model 2 IV Model 3
Model 1a Model 1b Model 2a Model 2b Model 3a Model 3b
Commune Poverty Rate 15,859.3601** 1,109.5086 5,723.2638 1,071.6630
(2.2844) (0.7592) (1.2671) (0.7387)
Distance to Bank -246.7480* -1.6820 139.3242 1.3552
(-1.7240) (-0.0999) (1.2671) (0.0815)
HS1A 483.7621 639.9030** 483.7621 639.5026** 483.7621 633.1655**
(1.1553) (2.0058) (1.1553) (2.0063) (1.1553) (1.9762)
MARI -861.4867* -482.2099 -861.4867* -483.3813 -861.4867* -480.8176
(-1.7770) (-1.1590) (-1.7770) (-1.1632) (-1.7770) (-1.1557)
GENDER 393.0971 40.2658 393.0971 41.3491 393.0971 52.1852
(0.9022) (0.1105) (0.9022) (0.1136) (0.9022) (0.1437)
ETHI 63.8295 -599.7323 63.8295 -596.7055 63.8295 -703.1787
(0.0588) (-0.9582) (0.0588) (-0.9532) (0.0588) (-1.1723)
GRAD 119.0418** 103.5256** 119.0418** 103.6988** 119.0418** 103.6460**
(2.2130) (2.3699) (2.2130) (2.3751) (2.2130) (2.3731)
SIZE 487.3533*** 297.7141** 487.3533*** 297.8828** 487.3533*** 296.7450**
(3.1664) (2.2623) (3.1664) (2.2640) (3.1664) (2.2601)
SFEM -546.1679** -212.4477 -546.1679** -211.8552 -546.1679** -220.2975
(-2.3245) (-1.0734) (-2.3245) (-1.0710) (-2.3245) (-1.1108)
SAGE12 -266.6846 -476.0918** -266.6846 -477.3821** -266.6846 -475.8238**
(-1.3167) (-2.5241) (-1.3167) (-2.5392) (-1.3167) (-2.5239)
SAGE6 -452.1848** -704.2950*** -452.1848** -704.4231*** -452.1848** -711.8252***
(-2.1497) (-4.1969) (-2.1497) (-4.1956) (-2.1497) (-4.2588)
LAND1 -56.0098 -784.3585*** -56.0098 -784.7843*** -56.0098 -786.9265***
(-0.1988) (-2.7255) (-0.1988) (-2.7260) (-0.1988) (-2.7369)
LAND2 20.9273 567.5436** 20.9273 566.5395** 20.9273 571.9750**
(0.0827) (2.1765) (0.0827) (2.1786) (0.0827) (2.1950)
HOME 762.0062 1,188.3569*** 762.0062 1,188.9997*** 762.0062 1,211.9126***
(1.2192) (3.7748) (1.2192) (3.7755) (1.2192) (3.9046)
POOR 3,717.0654*** 3,964.6511*** 3,717.0654*** 3,964.6717*** 3,717.0654*** 4,034.7214***
(7.3177) (7.4078) (7.3177) (7.4088) (7.3177) (7.5870)
224
ISURE 69.4474 137.8526 69.4474 138.1189 69.4474 143.3686
(0.5941) (1.3799) (0.5941) (1.3840) (0.5941) (1.4524)
CO135 -70.1190 -196.3834 -3,116.5874 -200.5958 -4,836.7508* -53.2106
(-0.0263) (-0.3519) (-1.4655) (-0.3579) (-1.8219) (-0.1010)
COFAR 1,791.2516 587.1233 2,429.1424* 582.7332 2,789.3223** 618.1945
(1.3621) (1.2781) (1.9059) (1.2866) (2.0540) (1.3738)
ROAD -598.2011 427.4368 2,425.7967* 435.0073 4,133.2723* 402.7305
(-0.2871) (1.1002) (1.9544) (1.1296) (1.9405) (1.0429)
IMARK 941.2239 -556.2737** -3,013.1255** -557.0646** -5,245.9165** -576.9694**
(0.4001) (-2.0649) (-2.1120) (-2.0670) (-2.0512) (-2.1440)
REGI2 -1,749.9955 1,498.9866*** 3,097.2109* 1,495.3255*** 5,834.1463** 1,565.6855***
(-0.6101) (3.0195) (1.9433) (3.0281) (1.9772) (3.1622)
REGI3 4,640.4905* 1,479.0580*** 2,023.7104 1,477.8512*** 546.1669 1,542.2661***
(1.7956) (3.3976) (1.1848) (3.4066) (0.2730) (3.6877)
REGI4 -4,632.7318** -338.4919 -2,908.1422 -343.9146 -1,934.3667 -323.4014
(-2.2604) (-0.7400) (-1.4896) (-0.7555) (-0.9702) (-0.7012)
REGI5 -10,016.5133* -313.8323 -1,425.6631 -315.7007 3,425.0902 -346.0919
(-1.9041) (-1.0362) (-0.4953) (-1.0435) (1.0931) (-1.1558)
REGI6 -613.1201 -279.1939 2,722.2526 -281.1858 4,605.5436* -277.8136
(-0.2838) (-0.9578) (1.6276) (-0.9662) (1.9070) (-0.9524)
Constant -1,358.5667 -826.9309 -4,569.6456** -842.3339 -6,382.7550** -644.6256
(-0.5095) (-0.9213) (-2.3945) (-0.9470) (-2.2118) (-0.7403)
VFE With Without With Without With Without
Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021
F(i,df) 2.61 0.29 1.61 0.55 1.61 0.01
Prob>F 0.0738 0.7495 0.2053 0.4602 0.2053 0.9351
Note : Robust t-statistics in parentheses;
*, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively
aF-test for H0: Week instrumentts. If F-test > 10, reject H0, and vice versa.
225
APPENDIX 7.5
Impact of HS1W and the Role of Microcredit – VFE
VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW
HS1W (β1) -0.0956* -0.0794* 0.117** 0.0577 0.341*** 0.0307 -0.00664 0.0504 0.00764 0.104*** 0.0898**
(-1.829) (-1.776) (2.205) (0.690) (3.640) (0.888) (-0.134) (0.735) (0.265) (2.842) (2.490)
HS1W*CR (β2) -0.00395 -0.00317 0.00530 -0.00703 0.000434 -1.03e-06 0.00417 0.00696 -0.00434 -0.00527 -0.00749*
(-0.688) (-0.605) (1.196) (-0.862) (0.0397) (-0.000350) (0.926) (1.227) (-1.250) (-1.269) (-1.752)
MARI 0.0655 -0.00185 0.0419 -0.0602 0.152 -0.0338 -0.00548 -0.0212 0.0102 0.0427 0.0362
(1.362) (-0.0448) (0.829) (-0.715) (1.518) (-1.055) (-0.115) (-0.339) (0.513) (1.096) (1.099)
GENDER 0.0744* 0.0723** -0.0177 -0.0571 -0.0317 0.00877 -0.0103 -0.0182 0.00369 -0.0106 0.00622
(1.811) (1.997) (-0.381) (-0.730) (-0.352) (0.303) (-0.241) (-0.317) (0.206) (-0.333) (0.219)
ETHI 0.161 0.169* 0.116 0.159 -0.00832 0.131* -0.0793 0.187* 0.0914 0.00558 0.0887
(1.590) (1.871) (1.305) (0.978) (-0.0368) (1.878) (-0.996) (1.705) (1.624) (0.0898) (1.485)
GRAD 0.00291 -0.00107 -0.0134*** 0.00475 -0.00675 0.00184 0.000931 -0.00759 0.00116 0.00908*** 0.00681**
(0.617) (-0.266) (-2.857) (0.605) (-0.741) (0.596) (0.219) (-1.318) (0.526) (2.845) (2.317)
SIZE 0.0658*** 0.0121 -0.0404*** -0.0418 -0.0178 0.0442*** 0.0531*** 0.0264 -0.0258*** 0.0197* -0.00955
(4.055) (0.889) (-2.653) (-1.560) (-0.579) (4.164) (3.557) (1.351) (-3.420) (1.724) (-0.977)
SFEM -0.0274 -0.00145 -0.00846 0.0222 -0.0245 -0.0117 -0.0281 -0.00748 -0.0125 -0.0301** -0.0331***
(-1.532) (-0.0904) (-0.452) (0.708) (-0.672) (-0.926) (-1.564) (-0.310) (-1.390) (-2.154) (-2.821)
SAGE1 -0.0226 -0.0111 0.000730 0.254*** 0.0194 -0.00159 0.0186 0.00864 0.0755*** -0.00280 0.0516***
(-1.373) (-0.771) (0.0436) (8.851) (0.581) (-0.142) (1.186) (0.411) (7.085) (-0.233) (4.072)
SAGE3 -0.0388* -0.0379** -0.0459** -0.0114 0.0590 -0.0223 -0.0195 -0.0342 0.0218** 0.147*** 0.127***
(-1.690) (-2.095) (-2.210) (-0.326) (1.408) (-1.498) (-0.976) (-1.287) (2.158) (7.919) (8.117)
LAND1 -0.0591** -0.0540** -0.00357 -0.0503 0.0532 -0.0324* -0.0336 -0.0252 0.0316** 0.00879 0.0297
(-2.309) (-2.296) (-0.133) (-0.974) (1.055) (-1.780) (-1.485) (-0.758) (1.963) (0.526) (1.601)
LAND2 0.00512 0.0146 0.0209 -0.0113 -0.0385 -0.00291 0.00443 0.0200 -0.0186 -0.00148 -0.0119
(0.326) (1.054) (1.238) (-0.285) (-1.049) (-0.268) (0.353) (0.948) (-1.340) (-0.134) (-0.791)
HOME -0.102 0.0567 0.0913 -0.173 0.181 0.0134 0.00303 0.0138 -0.0200 -0.0643 -0.0735
(-0.771) (0.520) (0.835) (-0.941) (0.784) (0.165) (0.0293) (0.102) (-0.342) (-0.774) (-1.112)
POOR -0.0695* -0.0771** -0.0258 -0.0980 0.0294 -0.0228 0.0217 0.00499 -0.0309 -0.00490 -0.0182
(-1.678) (-2.203) (-0.663) (-1.421) (0.340) (-0.799) (0.526) (0.0962) (-1.219) (-0.148) (-0.554)
INSU -0.0230** -0.00894 0.0251** 0.0325* 0.0292 0.00817 0.0133 0.0117 0.000626 -0.00728 -0.00800
226
(-2.108) (-0.906) (2.151) (1.647) (1.246) (1.039) (1.157) (0.797) (0.118) (-0.926) (-1.056)
CO135 0.337 0.364 1.739** 0.575 -0.0251 0.818** 0.983 0.730 0.102 0.710 0.781
(0.396) (0.449) (2.236) (0.499) (-0.0115) (2.034) (1.159) (0.677) (1.026) (1.087) (1.148)
COFAR 0.131 -0.00440 -0.460 -0.756 0.328 -0.304** -0.586 -0.0593 -0.0285 -0.000100 -0.0169
(0.406) (-0.0166) (-1.178) (-1.462) (0.256) (-2.298) (-1.159) (-0.0891) (-0.446) (-0.00133) (-0.381)
ROAD -0.131 -0.109 -1.169** 0.254 0.299 -0.759** -1.302*** -0.458 0.0362 0.00664 0.0467
(-0.191) (-0.158) (-2.213) (0.247) (0.157) (-2.214) (-2.637) (-0.833) (0.605) (0.0904) (1.075)
IMARK 0.518*** 0.622*** 1.146*** 1.503 1.985* 0.473 0.643*** 0.576 0.0247 0.518 0.315
(3.014) (3.074) (2.607) (1.206) (1.853) (1.140) (2.848) (0.990) (0.339) (1.348) (1.337)
REGI1 is based
REGI2 -0.118 -0.565 -1.209** -1.725 -4.118*** -0.500 -0.0974 -0.425 -0.0319 -0.855 -0.645
(-0.157) (-0.875) (-2.391) (-1.358) (-3.366) (-0.961) (-0.248) (-0.532) (-0.295) (-1.622) (-1.497)
REGI3 -0.264 -0.667 -1.445** -2.497* -2.725** -0.422 -0.537 -0.340 -0.0655 -0.579 -0.403
(-0.314) (-0.867) (-2.042) (-1.816) (-2.258) (-0.754) (-1.436) (-0.378) (-0.552) (-1.454) (-1.590)
REGI4 -0.811 -1.022 -0.986* -0.272 -2.510*** -0.204 0.555 -0.516 -0.560 -0.603 -0.493
(-0.981) (-1.417) (-1.691) (-0.212) (-2.711) (-0.420) (0.909) (-0.609) (-0.868) (-1.543) (-1.403)
REGI5 -0.793 -0.938 -0.913 -0.595 -3.338** -0.296 0.312 -0.342 -0.00371 -0.548 -0.339
(-0.969) (-1.272) (-1.354) (-0.400) (-2.375) (-0.503) (0.609) (-0.345) (-0.0445) (-1.413) (-1.385)
REGI6 -0.714 -1.019 -2.030*** -0.614 -2.357 -0.921 -0.958* -0.701 -0.0180 -0.460 -0.272
(-0.713) (-1.085) (-2.900) (-0.393) (-1.196) (-1.621) (-1.797) (-0.900) (-0.171) (-1.167) (-1.095)
Constant 0.00334 0.224 1.359** 0.0188 0.118 0.494 0.796 0.0891 -0.0707 -0.122 -0.133
(0.00336) (0.242) (2.408) (0.0177) (0.0598) (1.217) (1.502) (0.154) (-0.664) (-1.166) (-1.442)
Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021
Note: T-statistics in parentheses
*, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively
227
APPENDIX 7.6
Impact of HS1W and the Role of Microcredit – Without VFE
VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW
HS1W (β1) -0.0654* -0.0478 0.114*** 0.0561 0.412*** 0.0413 0.0230 0.0740 -0.0165 0.0314 0.0223
(-1.764) (-1.453) (3.038) (0.865) (6.485) (1.497) (0.638) (1.547) (-0.705) (1.238) (0.860)
HS1W*CR (β2) -0.00237 -0.00190 -0.00142 -0.00538 0.00832 0.000388 0.00598* 0.00252 -0.00189 -0.00428 -0.00383
(-0.505) (-0.476) (-0.503) (-0.673) (1.527) (0.218) (1.817) (0.681) (-0.603) (-1.474) (-1.201)
MARI 0.0370 -0.00826 0.0242 -0.0404 0.123 -0.0257 -0.0465 0.00857 -0.0104 0.0628* 0.0391
(0.891) (-0.237) (0.600) (-0.613) (1.498) (-0.840) (-1.124) (0.166) (-0.638) (1.757) (1.400)
GENDER 0.0670* 0.0733** 0.00682 -0.0453 -0.0187 0.0107 0.00219 -0.0345 -0.00199 -0.0356 -0.0223
(1.893) (2.397) (0.189) (-0.736) (-0.262) (0.389) (0.0591) (-0.747) (-0.144) (-1.186) (-0.928)
ETHI 0.123*** 0.123*** 0.0698* -0.0338 -0.0310 0.0306 0.0268 0.123** 0.0176 -0.0434 -0.000564
(3.095) (3.451) (1.774) (-0.526) (-0.375) (1.103) (0.625) (2.426) (0.904) (-1.498) (-0.0218)
GRAD -0.00216 -0.00458 -0.0107*** 0.00686 -0.00111 -0.00236 -2.68e-05 -0.00913** 0.00319* 0.00598** 0.00709***
(-0.618) (-1.551) (-3.179) (1.199) (-0.158) (-0.976) (-0.00787) (-2.071) (1.720) (2.368) (2.998)
SIZE 0.0338*** -0.0140 -0.0368*** -0.0211 -0.00974 0.0362*** 0.0431*** 0.0371** -0.0213*** 0.0115 -0.0112
(2.640) (-1.251) (-3.005) (-0.974) (-0.385) (3.971) (3.453) (2.319) (-3.498) (1.279) (-1.497)
SFEM -0.00646 0.0168 -0.00257 -0.0134 -0.0347 -0.00992 -0.00823 -0.00685 -0.0138* -0.0159 -0.0284***
(-0.455) (1.289) (-0.169) (-0.525) (-1.143) (-0.921) (-0.547) (-0.344) (-1.884) (-1.589) (-3.323)
SAGE1 -0.0261** -0.0164 -0.00304 0.249*** 0.0331 0.00215 0.0248* 0.00159 0.0695*** -0.00294 0.0490***
(-1.992) (-1.371) (-0.228) (10.59) (1.186) (0.228) (1.854) (0.0908) (7.634) (-0.315) (4.966)
SAGE3 -0.0652*** -0.0479*** -0.0472*** -0.0152 0.0633* -0.0348*** -0.0274 -0.0469** 0.0214*** 0.119*** 0.108***
(-3.463) (-3.153) (-2.712) (-0.562) (1.827) (-2.699) (-1.606) (-2.101) (2.833) (7.253) (8.182)
LAND1 -0.0359** -0.0307* -0.00218 -0.0536 0.0385 -0.00596 -0.00841 -0.0190 0.00349 -0.00814 -0.00203
(-2.123) (-1.919) (-0.124) (-1.547) (1.066) (-0.432) (-0.467) (-0.763) (0.297) (-0.591) (-0.150)
LAND2 0.00284 0.00487 0.00729 -0.0201 -0.0568** -0.00887 -0.00538 0.0140 -0.00625 0.00419 -0.00204
(0.310) (0.560) (0.613) (-0.781) (-2.149) (-0.915) (-0.416) (0.768) (-0.647) (0.382) (-0.179)
HOME -0.0758 -0.0160 0.0171 0.0862 -0.278 0.00314 -0.0438 0.0283 0.0279 -0.0398 0.00233
(-0.848) (-0.222) (0.206) (0.571) (-1.441) (0.0487) (-0.507) (0.265) (0.675) (-0.909) (0.0467)
POOR -0.0454 -0.0556* -0.00696 -0.0973* 0.0294 -0.0198 0.0161 0.0321 -0.0165 0.00646 -0.00819
(-1.307) (-1.943) (-0.215) (-1.839) (0.425) (-0.819) (0.468) (0.754) (-0.824) (0.245) (-0.319)
INSU -0.00410 0.00219 0.0203** 0.0222 0.0359** 0.0142** 0.0142 0.00288 -0.00253 -0.00512 -0.00635
228
(-0.498) (0.293) (2.449) (1.526) (2.061) (2.303) (1.556) (0.268) (-0.592) (-0.850) (-1.191)
CO135 0.0297 0.0265 0.00496 0.0401 0.0185 0.00743 -0.0845** 0.0136 0.00618 0.00624 0.0242
(0.868) (0.865) (0.136) (0.652) (0.242) (0.302) (-2.419) (0.287) (0.298) (0.229) (0.912)
COFAR 0.0618** 0.0544** 0.0294 0.0421 -0.0416 0.0392* 0.112*** 0.0226 -0.00459 0.00965 0.00425
(2.003) (1.986) (0.931) (0.799) (-0.639) (1.729) (3.558) (0.559) (-0.279) (0.437) (0.200)
ROAD 0.00929 0.0151 -0.00399 0.0474 0.0586 0.0241 -0.0446 0.0203 0.0281 0.0281 0.0537*
(0.254) (0.465) (-0.102) (0.697) (0.712) (0.893) (-1.148) (0.408) (1.124) (0.980) (1.897)
IMARK -0.0350 -0.0169 0.0243 -0.0160 -0.0392 -0.00839 0.0448* 0.0290 -0.00472 -0.0153 -0.0266*
(-1.495) (-0.820) (1.050) (-0.415) (-0.849) (-0.517) (1.953) (0.970) (-0.418) (-0.938) (-1.724)
REGI1 is based
REGI2 -0.0459 -0.0439 0.0341 -0.000864 -0.0787 -0.0590** -0.0429 0.0742 -0.0270 -0.00208 -0.0298
(-1.109) (-1.198) (0.871) (-0.0133) (-0.974) (-2.151) (-1.041) (1.419) (-1.576) (-0.0740) (-1.151)
REGI3 -0.0309 -0.0124 -0.0221 0.0235 -0.103 -0.0799*** -0.105*** -0.0341 -0.0133 -0.00366 -0.0151
(-0.888) (-0.427) (-0.669) (0.448) (-1.608) (-3.352) (-3.166) (-0.793) (-1.040) (-0.153) (-0.691)
REGI4 0.115** 0.119*** 0.0213 0.0806 -0.0877 -0.115*** -0.0960* 0.0355 -0.0500** -0.00792 -0.0280
(2.231) (2.624) (0.413) (1.021) (-0.842) (-3.115) (-1.917) (0.523) (-2.304) (-0.226) (-0.901)
REGI5 -0.0644 -0.0755* -0.0237 0.00699 -0.114 -0.00165 -0.0243 0.0633 -0.00344 -0.0110 -0.0136
(-1.308) (-1.859) (-0.529) (0.0945) (-1.314) (-0.0454) (-0.543) (1.099) (-0.217) (-0.429) (-0.556)
REGI6 -0.0357 -0.0743** -0.0995*** 0.0833 -0.0405 -0.139*** -0.153*** -0.0757 -0.00430 0.0195 0.0157
(-0.915) (-2.270) (-2.761) (1.431) (-0.587) (-5.582) (-4.156) (-1.627) (-0.290) (0.744) (0.676)
Constant 0.0184 0.123 0.141 -0.150 0.148 -0.0139 0.0212 -0.190 -0.0415 -0.00720 -0.0539
(0.160) (1.315) (1.260) (-0.802) (0.611) (-0.168) (0.184) (-1.368) (-0.758) (-0.111) (-0.802)
Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021
Note: T-statistics in parentheses
*, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively
229
APPENDIX 7.7
Impact of HS1A and the Role of Microcredit – VFE
VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW
HS1A (β1) -0.0159 -0.0324 0.0586 0.0452 0.355*** 0.00237 -0.0385 0.0213 0.00161 0.0363 0.0125
(-0.407) (-0.961) (1.436) (0.703) (4.911) (0.0914) (-1.028) (0.407) (0.0898) (1.351) (0.519)
HS1A*CR (β2) -0.00136 -7.87e-05 0.00675* -0.00549 0.00794 0.000448 0.00969** 0.01000* -0.00448* -1.42e-05 -0.00376
(-0.273) (-0.0174) (1.696) (-0.787) (0.859) (0.166) (2.204) (1.930) (-1.712) (-0.00374) (-1.149)
MARI 0.0653 -0.000864 0.0413 -0.0620 0.140 -0.0334 -0.00199 -0.0203 0.00980 0.0429 0.0369
(1.352) (-0.0209) (0.815) (-0.737) (1.414) (-1.043) (-0.0420) (-0.324) (0.495) (1.101) (1.117)
GENDER 0.0726* 0.0704* -0.0163 -0.0561 -0.0263 0.00906 -0.0123 -0.0184 0.00398 -0.0102 0.00674
(1.760) (1.938) (-0.350) (-0.718) (-0.294) (0.314) (-0.288) (-0.321) (0.223) (-0.319) (0.237)
ETHI 0.162 0.171* 0.109 0.159 -0.0423 0.131* -0.0805 0.181* 0.0937* 0.00372 0.0909
(1.590) (1.882) (1.231) (0.969) (-0.189) (1.880) (-1.007) (1.664) (1.666) (0.0596) (1.519)
GRAD 0.00296 -0.00106 -0.0135*** 0.00478 -0.00691 0.00181 0.000764 -0.00774 0.00120 0.00899*** 0.00676**
(0.625) (-0.265) (-2.881) (0.609) (-0.761) (0.587) (0.180) (-1.344) (0.546) (2.814) (2.294)
SIZE 0.0627*** 0.00970 -0.0381** -0.0409 -0.0147 0.0450*** 0.0525*** 0.0270 -0.0255*** 0.0214* -0.00753
(3.880) (0.716) (-2.508) (-1.532) (-0.480) (4.264) (3.554) (1.387) (-3.420) (1.886) (-0.778)
SFEM -0.0283 -0.00197 -0.00743 0.0223 -0.0235 -0.0113 -0.0274 -0.00670 -0.0126 -0.0291** -0.0322***
(-1.577) (-0.122) (-0.396) (0.710) (-0.649) (-0.897) (-1.527) (-0.278) (-1.399) (-2.086) (-2.740)
SAGE1 -0.0169 -0.00608 -0.00582 0.252*** 0.000179 -0.00308 0.0200 0.00598 0.0754*** -0.00711 0.0481***
(-1.041) (-0.425) (-0.351) (8.803) (0.00543) (-0.278) (1.296) (0.288) (7.108) (-0.596) (3.817)
SAGE3 -0.0301 -0.0301* -0.0569*** -0.0165 0.0239 -0.0248* -0.0174 -0.0387 0.0213** 0.139*** 0.120***
(-1.326) (-1.682) (-2.757) (-0.476) (0.582) (-1.682) (-0.889) (-1.477) (2.188) (7.627) (7.862)
LAND1 -0.0591** -0.0540** -0.00332 -0.0496 0.0553 -0.0323* -0.0336 -0.0253 0.0319** 0.00967 0.0305*
(-2.317) (-2.298) (-0.124) (-0.960) (1.106) (-1.777) (-1.487) (-0.760) (1.984) (0.577) (1.646)
LAND2 0.00487 0.0145 0.0217 -0.0121 -0.0376 -0.00290 0.00534 0.0211 -0.0192 -0.00180 -0.0127
(0.309) (1.040) (1.280) (-0.304) (-1.031) (-0.267) (0.425) (1.001) (-1.385) (-0.161) (-0.842)
HOME -0.105 0.0550 0.0923 -0.175 0.172 0.0142 0.00441 0.0144 -0.0202 -0.0639 -0.0723
(-0.797) (0.504) (0.836) (-0.948) (0.749) (0.176) (0.0427) (0.106) (-0.344) (-0.774) (-1.093)
POOR -0.0679 -0.0764** -0.0316 -0.0973 0.0154 -0.0237 0.0162 -0.00133 -0.0290 -0.00845 -0.0193
(-1.636) (-2.175) (-0.813) (-1.407) (0.179) (-0.829) (0.394) (-0.0257) (-1.139) (-0.255) (-0.582)
INSU -0.0238** -0.00941 0.0250** 0.0324 0.0267 0.00836 0.0131 0.0113 0.000824 -0.00722 -0.00752
230
(-2.171) (-0.953) (2.139) (1.642) (1.145) (1.063) (1.139) (0.771) (0.155) (-0.917) (-0.989)
CO135 0.319 0.336 1.791** 0.610 0.252 0.822** 0.959 0.752 0.103 0.746 0.797
(0.378) (0.422) (2.236) (0.522) (0.120) (2.043) (1.152) (0.693) (1.017) (1.135) (1.169)
COFAR 0.133 0.00248 -0.477 -0.767 0.222 -0.304** -0.579 -0.0688 -0.0273 -0.0102 -0.0184
(0.427) (0.00980) (-1.180) (-1.471) (0.167) (-2.324) (-1.169) (-0.103) (-0.418) (-0.128) (-0.411)
ROAD -0.114 -0.0870 -1.209** 0.232 0.112 -0.763** -1.290*** -0.477 0.0369 -0.0192 0.0340
(-0.167) (-0.129) (-2.206) (0.221) (0.0635) (-2.230) (-2.687) (-0.860) (0.598) (-0.237) (0.740)
IMARK 0.561*** 0.651*** 1.113*** 1.490 1.959* 0.459 0.637*** 0.564 0.0194 0.482 0.275
(3.544) (3.447) (2.638) (1.195) (1.870) (1.083) (2.793) (0.989) (0.264) (1.186) (1.045)
REGI1 is based
REGI2 -0.167 -0.599 -1.169** -1.708 -4.075*** -0.484 -0.0931 -0.411 -0.0259 -0.813 -0.599
(-0.226) (-0.937) (-2.364) (-1.345) (-3.356) (-0.914) (-0.237) (-0.518) (-0.239) (-1.511) (-1.362)
REGI3 -0.382 -0.740 -1.361** -2.472* -2.730** -0.380 -0.502 -0.305 -0.0530 -0.478 -0.287
(-0.459) (-0.968) (-1.963) (-1.801) (-2.296) (-0.673) (-1.349) (-0.343) (-0.465) (-1.146) (-1.042)
REGI4 -0.902 -1.083 -0.906 -0.242 -2.418** -0.172 0.577 -0.479 -0.552 -0.515 -0.401
(-1.117) (-1.534) (-1.557) (-0.189) (-2.359) (-0.346) (0.954) (-0.570) (-0.855) (-1.263) (-1.130)
REGI5 -0.835 -0.968 -0.891 -0.570 -3.323** -0.281 0.301 -0.348 0.0108 -0.507 -0.286
(-1.036) (-1.337) (-1.279) (-0.382) (-2.175) (-0.471) (0.596) (-0.347) (0.129) (-1.246) (-1.056)
REGI6 -0.742 -1.026 -2.036*** -0.625 -2.533 -0.910 -0.936* -0.706 -0.0126 -0.448 -0.242
(-0.748) (-1.109) (-2.877) (-0.397) (-1.379) (-1.581) (-1.797) (-0.909) (-0.118) (-1.076) (-0.880)
Constant -0.00119 0.208 1.403** 0.0435 0.373 0.495 0.782 0.115 -0.0750 -0.0984 -0.131
(-0.00120) (0.228) (2.402) (0.0403) (0.203) (1.217) (1.511) (0.196) (-0.695) (-0.880) (-1.404)
Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021
Note: T-statistics in parentheses
*, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively
231
APPENDIX 7.8
Impact of HS1A and the Role of Microcredit – Without VFE
VARIABLES EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW
HS1A (β1) -0.00882 -0.0169 0.0669** 0.0832* 0.313*** 0.0138 -0.0218 0.0479 -0.00417 0.0117 -0.000247
(-0.292) (-0.661) (2.299) (1.761) (5.919) (0.682) (-0.783) (1.295) (-0.289) (0.563) (-0.0134)
HS1A*CR (β2) 0.000469 0.000326 0.000632 -0.00357 0.0127** 0.000263 0.00832*** 0.00388 -0.00228 -0.000824 -0.00216
(0.120) (0.0977) (0.214) (-0.546) (2.304) (0.145) (2.765) (1.119) (-0.980) (-0.253) (-0.846)
MARI 0.0365 -0.00809 0.0230 -0.0439 0.116 -0.0257 -0.0440 0.00795 -0.0107 0.0630* 0.0395
(0.877) (-0.232) (0.570) (-0.666) (1.418) (-0.839) (-1.066) (0.154) (-0.661) (1.765) (1.411)
GENDER 0.0655* 0.0723** 0.00780 -0.0450 -0.0165 0.0113 0.00162 -0.0343 -0.00194 -0.0355 -0.0219
(1.852) (2.363) (0.215) (-0.730) (-0.231) (0.409) (0.0438) (-0.743) (-0.142) (-1.187) (-0.914)
ETHI 0.122*** 0.123*** 0.0701* -0.0370 -0.0378 0.0312 0.0296 0.122** 0.0173 -0.0415 0.00135
(3.060) (3.452) (1.791) (-0.574) (-0.459) (1.127) (0.692) (2.425) (0.887) (-1.427) (0.0520)
GRAD -0.00211 -0.00458 -0.0107*** 0.00701 -0.000937 -0.00239 -0.000184 -0.00913** 0.00322* 0.00592** 0.00704***
(-0.606) (-1.552) (-3.179) (1.226) (-0.133) (-0.986) (-0.0541) (-2.071) (1.733) (2.349) (2.974)
SIZE 0.0322** -0.0151 -0.0347*** -0.0205 -0.00167 0.0371*** 0.0441*** 0.0387** -0.0218*** 0.0118 -0.0108
(2.518) (-1.354) (-2.836) (-0.951) (-0.0661) (4.076) (3.536) (2.422) (-3.559) (1.326) (-1.468)
SFEM -0.00780 0.0161 -0.00184 -0.0141 -0.0339 -0.00937 -0.00763 -0.00659 -0.0139* -0.0157 -0.0279***
(-0.549) (1.230) (-0.121) (-0.555) (-1.118) (-0.870) (-0.507) (-0.332) (-1.915) (-1.566) (-3.277)
SAGE1 -0.0214* -0.0129 -0.00956 0.247*** 0.00756 -0.000446 0.0234* -0.00294 0.0706*** -0.00382 0.0483***
(-1.646) (-1.083) (-0.723) (10.57) (0.274) (-0.0478) (1.790) (-0.170) (7.747) (-0.414) (4.979)
SAGE3 -0.0596*** -0.0437*** -0.0559*** -0.0199 0.0301 -0.0380*** -0.0284* -0.0526** 0.0225*** 0.118*** 0.107***
(-3.204) (-2.909) (-3.236) (-0.745) (0.878) (-2.977) (-1.688) (-2.381) (3.074) (7.215) (8.165)
LAND1 -0.0371** -0.0313* -0.00118 -0.0540 0.0403 -0.00540 -0.00774 -0.0186 0.00331 -0.00764 -0.00146
(-2.187) (-1.951) (-0.0672) (-1.559) (1.122) (-0.392) (-0.431) (-0.745) (0.282) (-0.555) (-0.108)
LAND2 0.00299 0.00497 0.00742 -0.0201 -0.0559** -0.00887 -0.00505 0.0142 -0.00634 0.00430 -0.00207
(0.330) (0.572) (0.622) (-0.780) (-2.126) (-0.916) (-0.391) (0.778) (-0.656) (0.392) (-0.181)
HOME -0.0796 -0.0179 0.0177 0.0823 -0.281 0.00438 -0.0415 0.0283 0.0275 -0.0399 0.00311
(-0.892) (-0.250) (0.210) (0.543) (-1.465) (0.0679) (-0.481) (0.264) (0.664) (-0.913) (0.0623)
POOR -0.0457 -0.0557* -0.00891 -0.0968* 0.0164 -0.0203 0.0112 0.0288 -0.0151 0.00606 -0.00739
(-1.310) (-1.940) (-0.276) (-1.822) (0.237) (-0.838) (0.324) (0.677) (-0.742) (0.230) (-0.285)
INSU -0.00516 0.00160 0.0203** 0.0212 0.0347** 0.0145** 0.0145 0.00273 -0.00258 -0.00528 -0.00617
232
(-0.627) (0.213) (2.450) (1.459) (1.990) (2.347) (1.587) (0.253) (-0.600) (-0.878) (-1.156)
CO135 0.0313 0.0275 0.00598 0.0418 0.0234 0.00724 -0.0838** 0.0146 0.00597 0.00737 0.0244
(0.914) (0.896) (0.165) (0.680) (0.306) (0.295) (-2.404) (0.309) (0.287) (0.270) (0.918)
COFAR 0.0627** 0.0545** 0.0294 0.0448 -0.0374 0.0387* 0.110*** 0.0228 -0.00422 0.00882 0.00337
(2.022) (1.983) (0.932) (0.848) (-0.575) (1.711) (3.479) (0.564) (-0.256) (0.399) (0.158)
ROAD 0.00856 0.0147 -0.00456 0.0466 0.0553 0.0241 -0.0450 0.0197 0.0282 0.0276 0.0538*
(0.233) (0.451) (-0.116) (0.683) (0.668) (0.894) (-1.159) (0.393) (1.129) (0.966) (1.901)
IMARK -0.0341 -0.0163 0.0241 -0.0161 -0.0404 -0.00860 0.0455** 0.0290 -0.00478 -0.0148 -0.0264*
(-1.457) (-0.787) (1.041) (-0.419) (-0.872) (-0.530) (1.981) (0.969) (-0.424) (-0.907) (-1.713)
REGI1 is based
REGI2 -0.0442 -0.0428 0.0330 0.000269 -0.0839 -0.0597** -0.0448 0.0730 -0.0263 -0.00176 -0.0295
(-1.067) (-1.167) (0.843) (0.00414) (-1.041) (-2.179) (-1.089) (1.396) (-1.539) (-0.0626) (-1.143)
REGI3 -0.0321 -0.0129 -0.0241 0.0203 -0.113* -0.0800*** -0.105*** -0.0358 -0.0131 -0.00470 -0.0152
(-0.924) (-0.445) (-0.732) (0.387) (-1.766) (-3.356) (-3.167) (-0.834) (-1.020) (-0.196) (-0.694)
REGI4 0.115** 0.120*** 0.0157 0.0727 -0.117 -0.116*** -0.0943* 0.0309 -0.0495** -0.00861 -0.0273
(2.221) (2.640) (0.304) (0.917) (-1.123) (-3.132) (-1.885) (0.455) (-2.267) (-0.246) (-0.879)
REGI5 -0.0646 -0.0746* -0.0280 0.000423 -0.136 -0.00227 -0.0222 0.0600 -0.00326 -0.0115 -0.0132
(-1.306) (-1.833) (-0.624) (0.00569) (-1.566) (-0.0623) (-0.495) (1.042) (-0.204) (-0.451) (-0.538)
REGI6 -0.0416 -0.0758** -0.104*** 0.0679 -0.0764 -0.138*** -0.146*** -0.0802* -0.00488 0.0199 0.0186
(-1.047) (-2.300) (-2.849) (1.138) (-1.091) (-5.458) (-3.896) (-1.701) (-0.312) (0.766) (0.789)
Constant 0.0249 0.126 0.139 -0.143 0.156 -0.0163 0.0165 -0.189 -0.0407 -0.00855 -0.0567
(0.216) (1.350) (1.241) (-0.759) (0.648) (-0.197) (0.143) (-1.361) (-0.745) (-0.132) (-0.843)
Observations 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021
Note: T-statistics in parentheses
*, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively
233
APPENDIX 8.1
Access to Credit by Poverty status
Source
NTP Commune Poverty Status
Total
No Yes
No Yes
Microcredit 401
(45.3%)
484
(54.7%)
649
(73.3%)
236
(26.7%)
885
(100%)
Non-microcredit 1005
(53.0%)
891
(47.0%)
1496
(78.9%)
400
(21.1%)
1896
(100%)
Formal 975
(51.1%)
933
(48.9%)
1468
(76.9%)
440
(23.1%)
1908
(100%)
Informal 487
(50.4%)
480
(49.6%)
755
(78.1%)
212
(21.9%)
967
(100%)
Any Sources 1355
(51.1%)
1299
(48.9%)
2058
(77.5%)
596
(22.5%)
2654
(100%)
Total
3849
(54.3%)
3239
(45.7%)
5514
(77.8%)
1574
(22.2%)
7088
(100%)
234
APPENDIX 8.2
Difficulties in Accessing to Agricultural Input (Seed, Fertilizers)
Difficulties
Non-adopters Adopters Whole Sample
No. % No. % No. %
No difficulties 305 63.7% 1,424 72.7% 1729 70.9%
Lack of suppliers 18 3.8% 84 4.3% 102 4.2%
Prices too high 37 7.7% 217 11.1% 254 10.4%
Not enough information 16 3.3% 55 2.8% 71 2.9%
Not able to buy on credit 15 3.1% 73 3.7% 88 3.6%
Not enough access to credit 6 1.3% 4 0.2% 10 0.4%
Poor transport infrastructure 76 15.9% 97 5.0% 173 7.1%
Other Difficulties 6 1.3% 5 0.3% 11 0.5%
Total 479 100.0% 1,959 100.0% 2,438 100.0%