Tóm tắt Luận án Agricultural Development in the Northern mountainous midland provinces towards Sustainability

The research thesis applied the summarized theoretical framework and practices to analyze and assess the situation of agricultural development towards sustainability in the Northern mountainous midland of Vietnaminthe period 2000 to 2012 in all three aspects: economic, social and environmental sustainability. Through analysis and assessment, the thesis highlights the initial encouraging results of local authorities in the development of agricultural production in a sustainable way, as well as indicating the limitations and weaknesses that need to be solved and the factors that influence (both positively and negatively) to develop sustainable agriculture in the region during this period

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ter 2: Theories and practices of the sustainable agricultural development Chapter 3: Situation of the sustainable agricultural development in the Northern mountainous midland provinces in the period of 2000-2012 Chapter 4: Recommendations for improvement of the sustainability of agricultural development in the Northern moutainous midlands region until 2020. 6 CHAPTER 1 LITERATURE REVIEW The thesis mentioned 6 overseas and 21 domestic researches. From these researches, a number of issues are clearly shown, as below: - Firstly, it is affirmable that researches overseas and domestic have given a clear picture of sustainable development, from definition to content and indicators of evaluation that countries all over the world basically agree with. Certainly, depending on the certain context of each country, in each development stage, there is an emphasis on one point or the other. - Secondly, agricultural development towards sustainability has already been mentioned in a number of researches, however, merely in the range of one or a couple of agricultural products and within a province or a district. - Thirdly, particularly with the Northern mountainous midland region, there have been researches directly or indirectly addressing sustainability-oriented agricultural production development, yet the scopes of these researches are limited at a particular product, in a particular locality. There has not been any research project on sustainable agricultural development in the entire region. Provinces located in the Northern mountainous midland region share similarity in their natural, economic and social conditions and have close relation with the Red River Delta, specifically the weather, climate and water sources. This region is also important in terms of national defense. Therefore, it is needed to develop sustainable agriculture in the whole region so as to ensure the ecological balance of the region and the Red River Delta. This is a gap that has not been tackled by previous researches. This thesis will try to fill this gap. There are a large number of researches related to sustainable agricultural development. It must be said that conducted researches in Vietnam and elsewhere have been analysed comprehensively and thoroughly about sustainable development in general and sustainable agricultural development in particular. Nevertheless, these researches either discussed on sustainable development generally or sustainable agricultural development specifically at the macro level or at a certain sector or locality; there is yet a research on agricultural development towards sustainability in the Northern mountainous midland provinces, in both theoretical and practical aspects. 7 CHAPTER 2 THEORIES AND PRACTICES OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 2.1- Perception of sustainable development The content of sustainable development is defined to comprise three pillars 1 : (i) Economic sustainability: Ensuring stable, long-term and efficient economic growth; (ii) Social sustainability: Ensuring social equality and human development; (iii) Environmental sustainability: Exploiting and utilizing natural resources properly, preserving and continously improving the quality of living environment, ensuring that people enjoy their lives in a clean, healthy and safe environment, which harmonizes the relations between the people, the society and the nature. Figure 2.1: Three pillars of sustainable development Three pillars of sustainable development mentioned above are targets to achieve in the development process, as well as features of the development process in the modern context. 2.2-Sustainable agricultural development 2.2.1.Agriculture and features of agricultural production Agriculture, in a narrow sense includes cultivation, husbandry and agricultural services (services in agricultural production), while in a broaden sense it also covers forestry and fishery. In this thesis, the researcher will study agriculture in its broaden sense. Agricultural production differs from other production, the differences are: a- If in other economic industries land is only a condition and a basis for production, business and services, in agricultural production it is the key material for production, a special irreplaceable material. b- In other industries, production time almost coincides with labour time, this is not the case in agricultural production. In agricultural production, especially cultivation, production time and labour time are quite different. The reason is beside the time being influenced by human, plants and animals are also effected by other natural factors including physical, 1Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Son, Dr. Bui Duc Tuan, Economic Development Textbook, National Economics University, 2012. Sustainable development Environmental target Social target Economic target Economy Society Environment SD 8 chemical and biological elements. Under these two types of intervention, plants and animals survive, grow and provide valuable products. Thus, labour time in agriculture are regularly in turns with production time, this makes labour in agriculture always seasonal. As a result, addressing the seasonal labour in agriculture is a critical requirement of sustainable agricultural development in all countries around the world. c- Objects of production in other industries are lifeless and inanimate things, while objects of production in agriculture are living plants and animals, having their own rules of growth and development. Therefore, understanding these rules and making proper intervention will help them grow well and produce quality products that ensure sustainability, otherwise human beings will have to face with unexpected consequences. 2.2.2- Sustainable agricultural development and indicators for evaluation Generally, sustainable agricultural development is similar to sustainable economic development in ensuring three pillars: economic sustainability, social sustainability and environment sustainability. In 1992, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) defined sustainable agricultural development as: “the management and conservation of the natural resource base, and the orientation of technological and institutional change in such a manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human needs for present and future generations. Such sustainable development (in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors) conserves land, water, plant and animal genetic resources, is environmentally non-degrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable”. Nevertheless, due to the characteristics of agricultural production as mentioned above, sustainability in each aspect has its unique features. Economic sustainability: In agriculture, economic sustainability is understood as the steady increase of productivity and yield of crops and livestock in each certain stage. To evaluate economic sustainability in agricultural development, many indicators can be used, however, following are the most important in our opinion: - Productivity of crops (unit: cwt/ha) - Productivity of livestock (unit: kg/animal or liter/animal/year as for milk) - Production value of the entire agriculture sector (in broaden sense) and of each sub- sector (agriculture, forestry, fishery). - Growth rate of overall agricultural production, of each individual sub-sector, or of each specific product (this indicator is calculated in %) - Production value on each hecta of agriculture land, unit: million VND/ha (given the features of agricultural production, land used for production is divided into 3 types) - Production value generated by 1 labour (unit: million VND/1 person). This indicator can also be used for each sub-sector or each product depending on purpose of calculation. - Proportion of sub-sectors of agricultural production (agriculture, forestry and fisheries) and proportion of smaller divisions within each sub-sector (in narrow sense of agriculture, 9 they are cultivation, husbandry and supportive agricultural services). This indicator is calculated in percentage that each sub-sector or division accounts for. - Yield of grain products per capita. Unit: kg / person / year. Social sustainability: There are many social requirements in regard to sustainable agricultural development, but the most important one is to raise incomes of the population quickly and ensure fairness in the enjoyment of the fruits that development brought about. There are several indicators to determine social sustainability of agricultural development, in our perspective, the following are the most important: - The average income per household member/ month (unit: 1000 VND/ person/ month). - The poverty rate (in %). - Ratio of literacy of adults. Environmental sustainability: Here are key indicators often used to reflect the environmental sustainability of production development: - The area of degraded land. - The area of improperly irrigated land. - The forest area and forest coverage rate - The number of incidents and areas of forest fire and destroyed forest 2.3- Factors influencing sustainable development of agricultural production There are objective and subjective factors that influence the sustainable development of agricultural production, in summary, there are 3 groups as below: - First, factors of natural condition: have great impacts to sustainable development of agricultural production - Second, factors of economic condition: many factors fall in this group, namely infrastructure and facilities for agricultural production, policy system, development of market system, etc. - Third, factors of social condition: have quite a lot of impacts to agricultural development towards sustainability, noticably education level and population distribution. 2.4- Best practice on sustainable agricultural development in other countries and territories 2.4.1- Best practice of the Netherlands 2.4.2. Best practice of South Korea 2.4.3- Best practice of Thailand 2.4.4- Best practice of China 2.4.5- Lessons learnt for Vietnam in general, for Northern mountainous midland provinces in particular in terms of sustainable agricultural development - First of all, in order to develop agriculture in a sustainable way, the decisive 10 factor is having strong supports from the State, particularly to difficult areas, ethnic minority areas, mountainous areas, remoted and distanced areas. The State’s supports must be given in various aspects, in a suitable timeframe and ideally through national programmes. The State must provide a policy system that actually encourages the mobilization of all economic sectors to actively invest in developing agricultural production in a sustainable way. - Second, in order to develop the agriculture in a sustainable way, it is needed to follow seriously and efficiently the motto: "coordination of the State and the People”. The State plays a very important role, however, the State does not do the work on behalf of farmers. The State merely creates a favourable conditions for the farmers to promote their ability in agricultural development, as well as makes an initial push to create a momentum for the farmers to continue their path (certainly, the State shall always supervise and support farmers should they meet difficulties or obstacles). Specifically, the State issues incentive policies for agricultural development, especially land policy, credit policy, science and technology policy, pricing policy, taxation policy, etc., as well as provides partial supports for physical resources (seeds, animal feed and supplies, machinery, equipment, finance, etc.) to farmers to facilitate the production and business activities. -Third, experiences from other countries have shown that in order to develop agriculture in a sustainable way, the State and the people must focus on addressing comprehensively various economic, technical and management issues. Above all, it is required to rapidly set up modern facilities; to timely apply advanced science and technology in production and trading; and to quickly train and build capacity of qualified human resource meeting the demand for development. 11 CHAPTER 3 CURRENT SITUATION OF SUSTAINABLEAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS MIDLAND PROVINCES IN THE PERIOD OF 2000 TO 2012 3.1- Natural, social economic features of the Northern mountains midland provinces related to sustainable agricultural development 3.1.1- Natural features Table 3.1: Generalizing the basic situation of the Northern mountains midland provinces in 2012 No Province Natural land (1.000 ha) Agricultural land (1.000 ha) Forestry land (1.000 ha) Population in 2012 (1.000 person) 1 Ha Giang 791.5 152.6 548.2 763.5 2 Cao Bang 670.8 94.4 534.0 515.2 3 Bac Kan 485.9 36.5 378.7 320.5 4 Tuyen Quang 586.7 82.5 446.9 712.1 5 Lao Cai 638.4 83.4 333.6 646.8 6 Yen Bai 688.6 107.8 474.1 764.4 7 Thai Nguyen 353.5 108.7 180.2 1,150.2 8 Lang Son 832.1 106.3 559.9 740.8 9 Bac Giang 384.9 129.6 140.1 1,588.5 10 Phu Tho 353.3 98.5 178.6 1,340.8 11 Đien Bien 956.3 154.4 602.1 519.3 12 Lai Chau 906.9 89.7 418.7 403.2 13 Son La 1,417.4 261.5 624.6 1,134.3 14 Hoa Binh 460.8 65.2 688.3 806.1 15 Total 9,527.1 1,571.1 5,708.0 11,405.7 % compare with national 28.78 14.94 37.13 12.84 Source: GSO, 2012 The table above shows that the Northern mountains midland provinces areas account for 28.78% of the country's, but the populationaccounted for only 12.84%. Agricultural land accounts for 14.94% of the of the country's agricultureland area, forestry land areas account for 37.13%. This is shown that the forestry sector plays a very important role for the development of the region. Among the 14 provinces of the Northern mountainous midland area, Phu Tho has the smallest natural area with 353,300 ha, and Son La has the largest with 1,417.5 million ha. The province with a smallest population is Bac Kan with 320,500 people and with a largest population is Bac Giang with 1,588.5 million people. 12 3.1.2- Economic features Due to the complex terrain and deeply divided, the Northern mountainous midland provinces have the poor economic conditions, including notably: - Infrastructure development to serve the economic, social and environmental development of the area was invested by the Communist Party and the Government but still backward. - Despite the region's economy has shifted and developed rapidly in recent years, it has shifted and developed by backward knowledge in limited scale. (this is generally in the region also has a number of local qualified relatively well developed as Lao Cai, Lang Son, Thai Nguyen, Phu Tho, Bac Giang). 3.1.3- Social features The Northern mountainous midland provinces is largely inhabited by ethnic minorities in our country (more than 30 different ethnic groups), including notably the ethnic Thai, Tay, Nung, Muong, H .Mong, Knives, Khomu, Resistance, Giay ... Unless the Kinh people, the other ethnic groups, the most populous nation and only about 1 million people, and the most a few tens of thousands of people, even some ethnic people populationis just under 1 thousand. - History and development of The Northern mountainous midland provinces tied to the history and development of the people of Vietnam. - Natural conditions are complex and fragmented, poor infrastructure, underdeveloped economic, ethnic minorities much and lower intellectual level and has brought no less a disadvantage in terms of social opportunity for the region, especially the problem of poverty, the existence of old traditions, social evils, and taking advantage of this weakness to instigate people against the authorities, against the regime of social socialist enemy. 3.2- Current stituation of the development of agricultural production of the Northern mountainous midland provinces from 2000 to 2012 3.2.1- Agricultural production growth and stable continuous From 2000 to 2012, all the three sectors: agriculture, forestry and fisheries of the region had a relatively well developed. 13 Figure 3.2 : The value of Agricultural-Foresty and Aquatic Production in the Northern mountainous midland provinces 2000 to 2010 Source: GSO, 2005, 2010 3.2.2-Crop industry grows steadily over the years: Appendix: Productivity and yield of local maize of the Northern mountainous midland provinces from 2000 to 2012 Unit: 100kg/ha, 1,000 tons Provinces 2000 2003 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 1-Ha Giang -Productivity 17.2 19.5 21.0 20.9 24.1 28.0 31.8 -Yield 71.7 88.0 92.6 90.7 111.7 133.4 167.2 2-Cao Bang -Productivity 24.1 26.0 27.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 32.5 -Yield 75.8 86.2 96.1 109.1 112.7 113.8 127.7 3-Bac Kan -Productivity 21.4 26.5 27.3 34.5 35.0 36.7 37.2 -Yield 21.2 35.0 39.8 55.6 58.4 58.3 61.4 4-Tuyen Quang -Productivity 33.0 37.6 40.7 41.4 41.2 42.3 43.1 -Yield 38.6 53.0 59.9 73.2 66.7 70.2 60.4 5-Lao Cai -Productivity 17.0 23.3 24.2 28.5 28.0 32.4 34.0 -Yield 38.3 57.3 64.6 75.8 80.7 100.8 114.6 6-Yen Bai -Productivity 19.7 22.9 23.5 25.3 26.0 28.5 30.6 -Yield 19.5 26.3 33.4 39.9 45.3 64.3 75.5 7-Thai Nguyen -Productivity 28.8 32.6 34.7 42.0 41.1 42.1 42.2 -Yield 30.8 43.7 55.1 74.8 84.6 75.4 75.5 8-Lang Son -Productivity 35.3 41.1 43.4 46.6 45.8 47.9 47.8 14 -Yield 44.8 61.7 79.8 89.0 94.9 96.8 104.3 9-Bac Giang -Productivity 25.8 28.2 33.3 35.0 32.7 36.5 39.1 -Yield 29.4 29.0 44.3 49.7 51.0 44.9 33.6 10-Phu Tho -Productivity 26.2 34.5 36.8 38.1 38.7 43.7 45.5 -Yield 42.5 66.5 74.8 82.2 89.5 90.4 79.1 11-Đien Bien -Productivity - - 19.3 20.7 22.2 23.1 24.5 -Yield - - 49.1 56.5 64.3 67.3 71.6 12-Lai Chau -Productivity - - 18.1 21.1 22.1 25.5 26.9 -Yield - - 28.9 37.5 40.2 48.5 57.3 13-Son La -Productivity 26.3 31.1 28.2 37.7 38.1 31.5 39.2 -Yield 135.8 200.9 228.0 444.0 503.5 418.5 524.2 14-Hoa Binh -Productivity 22.7 26.6 28.7 36.4 39.3 40.3 39.7 -Yield 48.8 74.3 96.9 123.7 141.1 144.5 143.8 15-Region yield 23.9 28.2 29.2 32.9 33.6 33.2 36.3 16-Nation yield 27.5 34.4 36.0 39.3 40.1 40.9 43.0 17-Region productivity 640.4 883.0 1,043.3 1,401.7 1,544.6 1,527.1 1,696.2 18-% compare with nation 31.9 28.2 27.5 32,6 33.8 33.1 35.3 Source: GSO 2005, 2010, 2012 Table 3.3:Value horticultural products per 1 ha of arable land of the Northern mountainous midland provinces Unit: Million VND No Province 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 Ha Giang 17.72 22.17 22.00 27.12 2 Cao Bang 18.64 22.19 24.15 25.41 3 Bac Kan 14.88 23.38 32.62 39.18 4 Tuyen Quang 37.26 39.67 50.21 58.61 5 Lao Cai 24.23 30.08 31.71 37.01 6 Yen Bai 27.98 32.22 33.79 38.35 7 Thai Nguyen 35.48 40.10 44.43 52.86 8 Lang Son 22.31 26.28 39.90 40.82 9 Bac Giang 39.48 41.05 46.75 57.29 10 Phu Tho 43.90 48.34 51.64 61.23 11 Đien Bien 15.31 18.28 23.66 28.02 12 Lai Chau 8.60 9.54 10.14 12.69 13 Son La 15.76 18.32 19.47 30.86 14 Hoa Binh 39.99 46.11 55.47 65.68 15 Regional Average 25.17 28.62 32.78 39.91 16 National Average 43.89 45.52 54.56 72.24 Source: GSO, 2012. The table above shows that, there is still a small gap between the value horticultural 15 products per 1 ha of arable land in the Northern mountainous midland provinces in comparison withthe national average, but it had regular and not small progress from 2008 to 2011. 3.2.3-The livestock sector of the local area has gradually developed towards commodity production Appendix 3:Current Development status of the livestock sector in the Northern mountainous midland provinces period 2000 to 2012 Unit: 1.000 animals Provinces 2000 2003 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 1-Ha Giang -Buffalows 132.2 133.0 138.1 147.0 146.4 158.3 158.7 -Cows 54.6 65.6 72.7 84.3 90.1 101.7 103.8 -Pigs 248.0 290.6 329.1 352.9 373.0 431.7 449.5 -Poultry 1,223.0 2,055.0 2,139.0 2,595.0 2,742.0 3,041.0 3,166.0 2-Cao Bang -Buffalows 108.7 108.8 112.5 117.4 107.1 109.3 100.8 -Cows 104.3 114.5 124.4 129.5 123.1 129.8 121.1 -Pigs 245.0 284.1 308.8 310.8 322.3 339.8 356.0 -Poultry 1,549.0 1,845.0 1,968.0 2,089.0 2,113.0 2,145.0 1,975.0 3-Bac Kan -Buffalows 87.0 81.7 83.0 87.9 77.7 73.9 53.0 -Cows 32.5 35.3 38.6 44.9 36.2 27.1 20.2 -Pigs 157.2 154.0 157.7 155.0 164.1 193.2 178.9 -Poultry 1,227.0 1,208.0 1,205.0 1,012.0 1,200.0 1,182.0 1,142.0 4-Tuyen Quang -Buffalows 137.4 129.5 133.1 143.2 145.1 146.6 104.9 -Cows 19.3 32.5 43.0 55.3 56.2 46.7 18.4 -Pigs 266.1 315.0 343.0 418.1 441.1 519.6 419.9 -Poultry 2,432.0 3,982.0 4,374.0 3,032.0 3,611.0 5,118.0 3,519.0 5-Lao Cai -Buffalows 100.3 124.4 106.7 127.0 125.5 134.9 123.7 -Cows 17.6 19.2 19.5 23.9 23.3 23.4 16.3 -Pigs 229.1 342.9 334.4 353.4 382.1 459.3 413.3 -Poultry 1,376.0 2,100.0 1,981.0 2,506.0 2,623.0 2,881.0 2,390.0 6-Yen Bai -Buffalows 83.3 93.2 101.1 111.7 110.0 112.4 97.4 -Cows 30.1 26.5 28.1 38.8 36.5 34.3 19.0 -Pigs 283.0 321.2 354.4 376.0 397.8 422.6 423.3 -Poultry 2,411.0 2,674.0 2,507.0 2,784.0 2,881.0 3,097.0 3,363.0 7-Thai Nguyen -Buffalows 135.9 114.7 111.1 108.6 106.9 93.5 70.6 -Cows 23.4 32.4 43.3 57.0 55.0 42.9 34.8 -Pigs 348.1 465.9 519.3 509.0 529.2 577.5 514.8 -Poultry 2,621.0 4,818.0 4,669.0 5,071.0 5,295.0 6,823.0 7,564.0 8-Lang Son -Buffalows 188.8 188.2 188.5 182.2 160.9 155.3 122.7 -Cows 42.5 48.4 52.7 57.1 50.4 44.3 31.9 -Pigs 277.5 333.6 350.6 332.8 372.7 369.0 328.4 -Poultry 2,962.0 3,641.0 3,703.0 3,055.0 3,284.0 3,758.0 3,330.0 9-Bac Giang -Buffalows 125.3 94.2 92.0 91.2 87.3 83.7 68.8 -Cows 68.0 82.4 99.8 148.4 149.4 151.0 132.8 -Pigs 718.3 843.0 928.4 1,002.3 1,050.6 1,162.4 1,173.1 16 Provinces 2000 2003 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 -Poultry 7,077.0 9,662.0 9,075.0 10,979.0 12,067.0 15,425.0 14,962.0 10-Phu Tho -Buffalows 88.5 94.3 97.1 95.2 89.2 88.5 735.0 -Cows 100.5 105.2 129.3 163.4 142.8 122.1 91.9 -Pigs 448.3 530.4 568.0 552.3 593.0 665.7 658.0 -Poultry 6,559.0 7,757.0 7,887.0 8,068.0 8,495.0 11,127.0 9,499.0 11-Đien Bien -Buffalows - - 99.6 105.2 107.9 115.4 1,162.0 -Cows - - 27.7 32.2 34.7 39.1 42.0 -Pigs - - 210.6 232.3 245.3 276.8 288.6 -Poultry - - 917.0 1,417.0 1,634.0 2,020.0 2,302.0 12-Lai Chau -Buffalows - - 84.7 92.4 89.0 98.8 89.3 -Cows - - 12.4 12.4 13.6 15.1 14.9 -Pigs - - 155.8 160.6 179.4 209.6 181.4 -Poultry - - 526.0 853.0 900.0 1,011.0 915.0 13-Son La -Buffalows 119.2 133.1 155.2 162.1 158.5 170.2 168.5 -Cows 87.6 106.4 119.9 159.9 169.8 191.3 196.5 -Pigs 340.4 441.0 476.0 405.1 460.8 523.8 535.3 -Poultry 2,016.0 3,306.0 3,402.0 4,848.0 5,014.0 4,890.0 4,604.0 14-Hoa Binh -Buffalows 128.3 122.2 122.6 126.1 112.8 113.4 105.5 -Cows 48.0 56.5 64.3 81.7 77.8 72.9 61.0 -Pigs 294.7 370.6 410.3 398.0 416.0 451.2 426.4 -Poultry 2,323.0 3,543.0 3,483.0 3,383.0 3,588.0 3,882.0 3,876.0 Source: GSO 2005, 2010, 2012 The table above shows that, cattle, pigs and poultry in the Northern mountainous midland provinces, from 2000 to 2012, were well developed. 3.2.4-The forestry industry in the provinces has growing concerns Figure 3.3: Forestry production value of the Northern mountainous midland provinces from 2000-2012 (price 1994 - 2012 price 2010) Souce: GSO 2005, 2010, 2012 The table above shows that forestry production value throughout the Northern mountainous midlands has grown relatively steadily over the years. 2012 compared with 2000, the value of the forest produced additional 443.2 billion, an average annual increase 17 was 44.32 billion. Two of the provinces are increasing relatively: Lang Son Province, adding 94.1 billion, an average annual increase 9.41 billion; Yen Bai province increased by 93.1 billion, an average annual increase of 9.31 billion. Unfortunately there are 2 provincial forestry production value decreased significantly: Son La decreased 93.7 billion, an average annual reduction of 9.37 billion; Cao Bang province decreased by 27.6 billion, an average annual decrease of 2.76 billion. 3.2.5-Fisheries have also been growingly concerned in the Northern mountainous midland provinces Table 3.4: The value of fisheries production in the Northern mountainous midland provinces period 2000-2010 (1994 prices) * Unit: billion VND No Provinces 2000 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 Ha Giang 7.0 8.1 8.7 10.0 10.7 11.2 11.4 2 Cao Bang 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 3 Bac Kan 2.3 3.1 3.6 5.4 5.9 6.4 6.8 4 Tuyen Quang 11.5 13.2 16.2 21.6 25.7 27.4 29.0 5 Lao Cai 4.2 7.6 9.3 13.4 14.8 22.4 25.3 6 Yen Bai 9.7 22.2 29.0 34.8 37.8 41.4 45.2 7 Thai Nguyen 24.4 28.4 29.6 32.8 33.9 38.9 44.9 8 Lang Son 3.5 8.0 9.0 9.2 9.8 13.7 9.2 9 Bac Giang 49.0 57.1 66.3 88.7 111.4 145.8 168.5 10 Phu Tho 67.1 88.7 99.7 131.7 126.3 139.7 152.9 11 Đien Bien - - 6.2 7.7 9.6 9.9 10.1 12 Lai Chau - - 5.9 7.9 8.8 9.0 8.8 13 Son La 17.7 24.5 26.4 39.3 37.1 39.5 49.9 14 Hoa Binh 10.4 18.7 22.7 27.9 28.8 32.9 33.4 15 Region 213.0 287.2 334.8 433.3 463.5 541.0 598.2 The table above shows that, in 2010 compared to 2000, the production value of the fishery sector throughout the region increased from 213 billion to 598.2 billion, an increase of 2.8 times. Some provinces have very high growth rates: Yen Bai Province from 9.7 billion in 2000 increased up to 45.2 billion in 2010, an increase of 4.6 times; Bac Giang province increased from 49 billion VND up to 168.5 billion VND, 3.4 times. 3.2.6. The organizational forms of agricultural production has been paid attention to reinforce and construct. 3.3–Assessment of the sustainability of agricultural development in the Northern mountainous midland provinces Based on some basic criteria outlined in Chapter 1, readers can review and see the situation of the development of the sustainable agriculture in the Northern mountainous midland provinces in Vietnam over time as follows: 18 3.3.1-Sustainable economy Agricultural production has had better growth and increased steadily over the years, especially productivity, crop production, livestock farming has basically met the increasing demands for food of the ethnic minority groups living in the area. Based on the criteria: production value, growth, crop yields, livestock, food production per capita, manufacturing value obtained on 1ha. The thesis show that The Northern mountainous midland provinces last time was initially developed in a sustainable way. However, such development is not sustainable, in particular: - First, the capacity of the plant is low. Figure 3.6: Rice and maize yields in the period of 2000-2012 Source: GSO 2005, 2010, 2012 The diagram above shows the period from 2000 to 2012 rice yield as well as yield corn of The Northern mountainous midland provinces has a relatively large distance compared to the average productivity of the country. - Second, the production values obtained on 1 ha and 1 labor day are low; value horticultural products obtained per hectare of arable land from 25.17 million in 2008 increased to 39.91 million in 2011, however, this figure far apart compared to the average of all water (72.24 million East by 55.2%), especially very low compared to the Red river Delta (94.25-by 42.3% million) and the Mekong river delta (91,1million by 43.8%). 19 Figure 3.8: The structure of agricultural productionThe Northern mountainous midland provinces 2000-2010 unit: % Source: GSO, 2005, 2010. 3.3.2-Sustainability in society Agriculture of The Northern mountainous midland provinces relatively developed, have created favorable conditions, in which the most important is the financial condition of the Party committees, governments and people here are addressed and development of social problems. On the basis of the following criteria: per-capita income one month, the poverty rate, the development of infrastructure. According to the author, socially initial agricultural of The Northern mountainous midland provinces sustainable development. However, this field is still difficult, in particular: - Income per capita in May 2012 of the Northern mountainous midland provinces reached 1,285,000 contracts, while North and Central coast is 1.469 million contract, Highlands 1.631 million, and Mekong Delta is 1.785 million contract, the Red river Delta and the Southeast 2.304 million contract was 3.241 million contract. - The poverty rate of the northern mountainous province 2012 was 24.2%, while 18.6% Highlands, North Central and South Central Coast is 16.7%, the Mekong Delta is 10.6%, the Red River Delta is 6.1%, and the South East is 1.4%. - Low income, low educational level, difficult communication conditions inevitably lead to cultural life, spirit and people benefiting low. 3.3.3 – Sustainable in enviroment Initial environmental issues has also been the lead agency of the local people's attention and preserve, protect, especially the natural environment. The percentage of forest cover in the area has increased from 33% in 1993 to 48.8% in 2010, however this area much longer existed as well. - Wastes from agricultural production and human-made environments the soil, the more water pollution. - The phenomenon of landslides, soil run off, flash floods happening more and more, increasing damage. - The phenomenon of forest fires is still increasing and a high proportion of the whole country. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 79.34 81.59 82.68 83.97 83.95 83.7 83.49 18.97 16.45 15.23 13.78 13.64 13.56 13.63 1.690 1.960 2.090 2.250 2.410 2.740 2.880 Thuỷ sản Lâm nghiệp Nông nghiệp 20 Table 3.12: The forest area burnt in the Northern mountainous midland provinces in the period 2000-2012 Unit: ha No Province 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 1 Ha Giang 6.0 113.7 66.5 97.8 381.0 660.1 60.9 2 Cao Bang 47.0 190.3 64.9 75.8 95.7 433.0 40.3 3 Bac Kan 10.2 14.5 3.4 4.9 16.0 43.0 68.6 4 Tuyen Quang 2.1 97.1 32.1 82.6 5.0 9.3 2.2 5 Lao Cai 92.6 110.0 28.7 43.0 27.0 794.0 99.5 6 Yen Bai 3.4 274.1 190.1 709.2 201.4 917.9 22.9 7 Thai Nguyen 2.7 5.0 3.5 21.0 15.0 26.1 18.0 8 Lang Son 268.2 544.0 85.8 251.8 144.8 164.0 51.4 9 Bac Giang 5.8 34.2 17.2 59.0 23.9 28.1 23.3 10 Phu Tho 2.0 332.0 8.9 13.9 - 45.6 - 11 Đien Bien 47.3 313.6 876.9 151.8 34.6 32.4 85.4 12 Lai Chau 156.4 360.2 71.7 330.4 - 13 Son La 20.5 71.0 238.0 1,188.0 103.0 548.3 72.1 14 Hoa Binh 0.1 715.0 208.0 - 5.2 53.2 25.3 15 Region 507.9 2,814.0 1,980.4 3,059.0 1,124.3 4,085.4 569.9 16 Nation 1,045.9 5,510.6 6,829.3 5.136,4 1.658,0 6.723,3 1.324,9 17 % compare with nation 48.6 51.1 29.0 59.6 67.8 60.8 43.0 Source: GSO 2005, 2010, 2012 The table above shows that except for 2005, burnt forest area of the Northern mountainous province accounts for 29% of the country's forest fires, while the other five were approximately 50% or more. In particular, in 2009 this percentage up to 67.81% and 60.71% in 2010 to. In 2012, forest fires in the region decreased, but the whole country has a high level of 43%. 3.4. Evaluation of factors affecting the development of sustainable agriculture in the Northern mountainous midland provinces -The influence of natural conditions Is the height above sea level, the large and fragmented terrain is complex, so the locality northern mountainous province region made up of many small land areas, climate pretty special weather conditions this has created favorable, but also brings difficulties for the sustainable development of agriculture. -The influence of social economic + First, the government has mobilized more capital to invest and build modern infrastructure system of socio-economic in the Northern mountainous province, especially the road system, communication system load and power supply, postal-system telecommunication, school systems, hospitals ...; as well as construction and development of infrastructure systems, technology for production agriculture, especially irrigation-system 21 standards, system production plant varieties and livestock, fertilizer production system, production forage production, plant protection systems and animal health, preservation systems and processing agricultural products. + Second, the government has launched many programs, mechanisms and policies to support the economic development of the society and the nation in general mountainous, agricultural development sustainable agriculture industrial, rural highlands north in particular. However, the policy of the Party and State are still some limitations: - Planning of agricultural production is not good. - The program supports the mountainous ethnic overlap, spreading investment, great loss. About farming practices are outdated, still producing extensive way, based on natural and hereditary experience is key. Market inputs and outputs of agricultural production midland provinces in the north have formed quite strong and active. However, the market's been pretty badly governed China. - The influence of social conditions Due to the complex topography, deeply divided, and the area has many ethnic minorities live most of the country, so people living here quite dispersed and educational level of the general population is relatively low. This situation has brought back to the difficulties in building infrastructure and technical service of agricultural development, as well as for making rapid advances in science and technology applications in agricultural production. This difficulty is not small hindrance to the development of sustainable agriculture in the region over time. 22 CHAPTER 4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS MIDLAND PROVINCES UNTIL 2020 4.1- Anticipation of the world and Vietnam’s context with impact to the sustainable development of agricultural production in the Northern mountainous midland provinces of Vietnam until 2020 4.1.1- The international context In the coming time the world economy will witnessrather complicated developments and newly emergedissues in the trend of sustainable development, integration, cooperation and competition. The increasingly close connection and interdependence between countries, on one hand create many opportunities for cooperation and development, but on the other handalso create new difficulties and challenges, making negative fluctuations and economic crisis easy to spread and deepen their impact. All these factors will have alternative and multi-dimension influence on sustainable agricultural development in The Northern mountainous midland provinces from now until 2020. 4.1.2- The context of Vietnam After 25 years of implementing the renovation, establishment and development of the socialist-oriented market economy, the country’s society and economy has had remarkable growth. Compared to 25 years ago, the country’s status and power have changed completely, in terms of: - Economy, from a poor country where GDP per capita per year was below USD 200; in 2012 this number increased to USD 1,540, so the country has becomes one of the world’s leading agricultural products export countries: taking the first rank in exporting pepper, the second rank in exporting rice, and the third rank in exporting rubber, coffee, cashew nuts and so on. With the country’s potential, we are enabled to invest in many areas of economic, social and environment development, including agriculture, rural areas and farmers. - Regarding human resources, in 2005 the rate of trained labours accounted for 12.5% of the total number of labours in the society; in 2010, the ratio has increased to 14.6%, in which more than 2 million labours obtained university and graduate degrees. - Regarding international cooperation, Vietnam had diplomatic relations and economic ties with over 150 countries and territories in all continents. The total foreign direct investment reached around 195 billion US dollars. Apart from the above-mentioned advantages, we also face numerous difficulties, namely natural disasters, complicated diseases, critical and spreading pollution, climate change, especially sea level rise, which have become visible threats to the life and production of people. The country’s economy will also have to cope with the increasingly fierceful competition in the world and domestic markets, the interaction and dependence to the world’s economy, as well as the higher risks from the integration and globalisation process. Another major difficulty is our economy is not really sustainable, quality, productive and efficient, its competitiveness remains weak. Despite the rapid economic growth, the growth model is outdated and the economic structure is unsuitable. 23 4.1.3- Regional context As production blooms, the income and living stardard of ethnic minority people are lifted significantly. Their living conditions, housing, transportation, communication, learning and healthcare are also better. People have more confidence in the leadership of the Party and the State. However, the Northern midlands and mountainous region has many difficulties in the development. In which the most significant are: unsynchronised and outdated infrastructure, low educational level; limited financial resources of the province and local people; scattered terrain, infavourable weather; the constant and cunning sabotage of hostile forces, especially from China, etc. These advantages and disadvantages will have negative impact during the course of agricultural development towards sustainability in The Northern mountainous midland provinces in the years to come. 4.2- Key viewpoints in sustainable agricultural development in the Northern mountainous midland provinces until 2020 From the reality of development in agriculture towards sustainability in the Northern mountainous midland provinces recently, as well as from the anticipation of the world and domestic contexts influencing sustainable agricultural development of the region in the coming time, we believe that in order to succeed, provinces in this region must understand thoroughly the following key viewpoints: - First, sustainable agricultural development in the Northern midlands and mountainous region until 2020 must be conducted comprehensively in all aspects. - Second, sustainable agricultural development in the Northern midlands and mountainous region until 2020 must be based on maximising the region’s advantages. 4.3- Main directions for sustainable agricultural development in the Northern mountainous midland provinces until 2020 Overall direction is a strong development of agriculture, forestry and fishery towards commodity, intensive production and sustainability, based on rational and efficient exploitation of advantages in each locality in the region. By 2020, it is expected that efforts be made to achieve the average of 85% to 90% of the country’s targets. 4.3.1- Cultivation - Expand and invest intensive cultivation in areas of industrial crops, famous fruit trees of the region: tea planting areas in Thai Nguyen and Phu Tho; lychee planting areas in Luc Ngan, Bac Giang; plum planting areas in Bac Ha, Lao Cai; orange planting areas in Bac Quang, Ha Giang; grapefruit planting areas in Doan Hung, Phu Tho; rubber areas in Lai Chau, etc. - Expand areas for vegetables and flowers. Create large-scale and specialised areas cultivating vegetables and flowers in each locality, particularly locations with favourable conditions of soil and weather like Sapa in Lao Cai, Moc Chau in Son La, suburb areas of Lang Son city, etc. In addition to vegetables and flowers, the Northern mountainous midland provinces also enjoys great advantage in cultivating and exploiting medicinal herbs and plants. 4.3.2- Animal husbandry - Take advantage of pastures and grazing land to promote cattle husbandry in the region. 24 Gradually shift from raising cattle for traction to gaining meat. Continue to encourage local people develop pig husbandry, particularly in industrial and semi industrial methods. Take advantage of large grazing land and abundant food resources, encourage local people to continue the development of poultry husbandry, especially high quality poultry breeds. In terms of methods, industrial and semi industrial methods should be applied in the forms of farms or enterprises. 4.3.3- Forestry The general direction is to accept forestry as a key production industry of the Northern mountainous midland provinces, to enable people to earn their living and build on their wealth from forestry activities. To that end, beside the strict management and protection of special use forests and protective forests, it is needed to allocate forest land to local people for their management and use. Efforts should be made to increase the production value of forestry of the whole region from 13.63% of the total agro-forestry-fishery production value in 2010 to over 20% in 2020. 4.3.4-Fishery Concentrate on maximise the utilisation of the water surface in aquaculture, especially water surface of large hydro power reservoirs such as Son La, Hoa Binh, Lai Chau, Thac Ba. etc. It is needed to invest in expanding cold water fish farming, e.g. sturgeon, salmon, etc. Efforts should be made to increase the production value of fishery of the whole region from 2.88% of the total value of agro-forestry-fishery production value in 2010 to around 5% in 2020. 4.4- Key solutions for sustainable agricultural development in the Northern mountainous midland provinces until 2020 To succeed in realising the Northern midlands mountainous provinces’ proposed sustainable agricultural development direction towards 2020, it is necessary to carry out a system of synchronized solutions, which have scientific basis and high feasibility. Following are the main solutions: 4.4.1- Focus efforts on the planning of agricultural development in the whole region as well as in each locality in the region: planning has an important role in social and economic development in general and agricultural development towards sustainability in particular. Planning has to be one step ahead, based on scientific basis and is highly feasible. 4.4.2- Build on specialised production zones at advantaged provinces or inter-provinces: focus investment on facilities and actively apply advanced techniques and technology, improve production efficiency in order to promote advantages of the region. 4.4.3- Set up facilities serving the production development of the whole region as well as each province in the region: appropriate policies and mechanisms are needed to mobilise all available resources for investment, improve infrastructure and facilities towards modernisation and synchronization, serving the course of sustainable agricultural development. 4.4.4- Select models of organising agricultural production suitable with conditions and 25 features of The Northern mountainous midland region: model of organising production has a crucial role in agricultural production; a suitable model will be a huge motivation boosting production; farmer household and farm is the main model of the region until 2020. 4.4.5- Select method of cultivation suitable with conditions of the Northern mountainous midland region as a whole and of each province in the region: there are many methods ensuring intensive cultivation in provinces of the Northern midlands and mountainous region, such as: field–pond–barn or garden–pond–barn or forest–pond–barn with the common method of agriculture- forestry- fishery combination. 4.4.6- Apply advances of science and technology in agricultural production in localities of the region: it is necessary to select and apply new advances of science and technology in line with the conditions of each locality; priotise investment on biotechnology, water resource, cultivation, mechanisation and electrification. 4.4.7- Adequate investment in training human resources for agricultural production in the region: this is not an easy task and needs adequate financial investment, the engagement of the whole political system. It must be conducted continuously and intensively in a certain time with concrete method and content. 4.4.8- Invest in supportive services of agricultural development: aiming at stimulating specialization in agricultural production and development of modern agricultura. In the Northern midlands and mountainous region, priority is needed in such services as irrigation, provision of animal breeds and plants varieties, equipment, fertilizers, plant protection products, veterinary services and plant protection. 4.4.9-Expanding consumption market of agricultural commodities provided by local people: this is an urgent requirement associated with the manufacturing process, with focus on strengthening and promoting the market system for agricultural products; cautious consideration is needed before penetrating the Chinese market. 4.4.10- Effectively address the issue of social welfare for farmers: people’s lives are still difficult in this region, the Government and local authorities should have policies to harmonise the use of incomes from the hydropower, minerals and forest exploitation and pay more attention to rapid and sustainable poverty reduction; policies to basically solve issues of jobs and income for people with meritorious services to the revolution. 4.4.11- Adjust a number of policies targeted at ethnic minority and mountainous area in general, at agricultural production in particular: such as investment policy, land and forest allocation and protection policies; investment in hydropower development policy; taxation on mineral resources exploitation and regulatory mechanism for the region; policy of border trade with China; policy of training human resources specifically applied for the region. 26 CONCLUSION The Northern mountainous midland is an extremely important areas of Vietnam, both in socio-economic, environmental and national security aspects. The area processes rich natural resources including millions of hectares of forestry, water resources, vast land and many kinds of minerals. The Northern mountainous Midlands is one of the economic region that rely agriculture. Although having certain advantages for agricultural developmentwith various ecological areas, creating favourable conditions for developing different types of agricultural, forestry and water specialties. However, because of the low starting point, over the past years, it has been difficult for commodity economic developmet; local government management and promotion was limited at provincial level. Therefore, the potentials and advantages of the region has not been taken full use of. This Northern midlands region is still facing difficulties and challenges in the trend of international economic integration and globalization. For the rapid sustainable agricultural production development in the Northern mountainous midland region in the coming years, the research studied in depth and complete the following issues: The research systematizied the basic theoretical issues of agriculture economic development in general, agricultural development towards sustainability in particular. The research especially clearly clarified the development of sustainable agriculture (economic- social-environmental) and the evaluation criteria for that sustainability. The research also explored and presented the experience of some countries in the world in the development of sustainable agriculture and to draw useful lessons for Vietnam in general, for the Northern mountainous midland region in particular. The research thesis applied the summarized theoretical framework and practices to analyze and assess the situation of agricultural development towards sustainability in the Northern mountainous midland of Vietnaminthe period 2000 to 2012 in all three aspects: economic, social and environmental sustainability. Through analysis and assessment, the thesis highlights the initial encouraging results of local authorities in the development of agricultural production in a sustainable way, as well as indicating the limitations and weaknesses that need to be solved and the factors that influence (both positively and negatively) to develop sustainable agriculture in the region during this period. From current situation in developing sustainable agriculture in the Northern midland, and on the basis of forecasting the domestic and international context that may affect the development of regional agriculture towards sustainability by 2020, thesis raises perspectives and direction on sustainable agricultural development in this region till 2020 as well as solutions to successfully implement that direction. Hopefully this research thesis will be a useful document for Northern mountainous midland provices to refer to in designing development of sustainable agriculture in the coming years.

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