Tóm tắt luận án Phát triển cà phê bền vững trên địa bàn tỉnh Đắk Lắk

- Sustainable coffee development is a process towards changes in technologies applied for coffee production and processing as environmentally friendly strategy, promoting economic development, social equality to meet high quality coffee demand of current generation and future generation. Sustainable coffee development is known as following aspects: i) Sustainable coffee development is closely related to economic and technical perspectives of the industry; ii) Sustainable coffee development is highly correlated to competitiveness capability to join global value chain; and iii) Coffee product has stronger competitiveness level than other agricultural products. Research focus of sustainable coffee development includes: 1) Economic sustainability (growth, economic efficiency, stability, quality, enhancement of competitiveness); 2) Social sustainability (income, equality, employment and poverty reduction); 3) Environmental sustainability (proper extraction and use of natural resources and resource preservation). Based on studies on sustainable coffee development conducted in some leading coffee producing and exporting countries in over the world, the author has obtained lesions learned to ensure development of sustainable coffee production for Vietnam including: i) Enhancing coffee quality; ii) Expanding domestic market; iii) Promoting coffee industry and system of agricultural extension services; iv) Innovating and completing management policies for coffee industry; and iv) Protecting and enhancing brand for Vietnam coffee.

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periods of time. 7. Objects and scope of study 7.1. Objects of study This study focuses on theoretical and practical backgrounds and factors affecting development of sustainable coffee production in the Dak Lak Province. Specific objects of 3 study are localities, coffee farmers, collectors, agencies, and firms/ companies processing and exporting coffee located in the Dak Lak Province. 7.2. Scope of study Content of study: Demonstration on evaluating the development of sustainable coffee in Dak Lak; Analyses of factors governing development of sustainable coffee; Based on those analyses to recommend possible solutions for sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak. The analyses and evaluation targets at individual coffee farming households with their stably own land and coffee farming households with share lease agreement as important stakeholders for coffee industry and those farmers have crucial roles for the development of sustainable coffee in Dak Lak. Duration: Secondary data and information collected from 2000 to 2012; Primary data surveyed in 2011; Solutions and strategies for development of sustainable coffee production towards 2020 and an outlook to 2030. 8. Contribution of this study The dissertation has contributed to systemize and clarify theoretical issues on the development of sustainable coffee. This study has determined that development of sustainable coffee production towards positive changes in technology for coffee production and processing as environmentally friendly approaches to improve economic development, and social equality in order to satisfy current and potential demand of high quality coffee. This study has clearly indicated factors contributing to sustainable coffee development, including natural condition, capacity of coffee producing and trading organizations, market factors and the role of government. Solutions for enhancing sustainable coffee production has been synthesized, which are activities for improving capacity of coffee producing individuals, market development, investment and improvement of technology for coffee production, efficient use of resources for sustainable coffee production, building up suitable policies and financial support for sustainable coffee production. Based on synthesized theoretical literatures of development of sustainable coffee, this study has constructed an analytical framework of sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak. Specifically, development of sustainable coffee was investigated with respect to 3 aspects which are (i) economic perspectives (growth, efficiency, stability, quality and competitiveness); (ii) social perspectives (income, employment, equality, poverty reduction); (iii) environmental perspectives (exploiting resources and environmental 4 protection) and reasonable combination of these 3 aspects for sustainable coffee development. Therefore, this study has constructed a series of criterions and analytical approaches of sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak. The study has analyzed advantages and disadvantages of the development of sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak, indicating that coffee production in Dak Lak has been efficiently grown over time, although advantage competitiveness has not been stable. Coffee development has contributed to income improvement, employment and poverty reduction, but equality. Coffee farming expansion is one of a reason negatively affecting environment and bio-diversity balance. The study has deeply examined determinants of sustainable coffee production, including i) natural characteristics; ii) coffee farming individuals; iii) market; iv) government. The dissertation has determined that development of sustainable coffee production is obviously objective for international economic integration; simultaneously conventional farming practices focusing on short term profit, damaging environment and degrading bio-diversity balance is a serious threat for coffee production. Based on theoretical and practical literatures, the study has determined strategic solutions and policies for the development of sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak with crucial roles of coffee farming individuals. On the other hand, market development, expanding domestic market of coffee output, and improving technology for coffee production with support of government for sustainable coffee production are seriously taken into account. 5 5 CHAPTER 1 THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL LITERATURES ON SUSTAINABLE COFFEE DEVELOPMENT 5.1. Theoretical background of sustainable coffee development (SCD) There are many various perceptions of SCD. Based on literatures synthesized many researchers, SCD may be generalized as a process of development towards changes in technologies, production techniques and coffee processing with environmentally friendly aspects, promotion of economic development and social equality, in order to meet demands of high quality coffee products for current and future generations. Characteristics of SCD in the Dak Lak Province consist of: i) SCD especially parallel economic and technical aspects of the industry; ii) SCD is closely related to ability to be a part of global value chain; iii) coffee production is highly competitive in comparison to other agricultural products. Primary contents of SCD include: i) Economic sustainability (growth, efficiency, stability, quality and competition); ii) Social sustainability (income, employment, equality and poverty reduction); iii) Environmental sustainability (environmental and natural resource extraction and protection). Upon the analysis of perspectives and major contents of SCD, we have identified four determinants of SCD, including: i) Natural condition for production (soil, climate, and water resource); ii) Subjects of coffee production (labor, finance, technology and production organization); iii) Market for coffee product; iv) Policies and support for public investment of government. 5.2. Practical background of sustainable coffee production Based on empirical studies on sustainable coffee production in some primary coffee producing countries (Brazil, Columbia and Guatemala), the author has quantified lessons learnt on enhancing competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee, such as: i) Comprehensively promoting coffee quality, therefore building up the reputation, promoting trade, expanding domestic markets; ii) Properly organizing coffee industry; and iii) Enhancing geographical identification of coffee production to promote coffee brand. 6 6 CHAPTER 2 STUDY SITES AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES 6.1. Overview of natural and socio-economic conditions of Dak Lak Province Soil resource of the Dak Lak province is very favorable for industry crops, coffee especially. Total natural area of the province is 1,312,537 hectares, in which good quality of soil groups for coffee production are gray soil, red soil (basalt soil) and brown soil, accounting for more than three-fourth of total natural area. Climatic condition is also suitable for many crops and coffee especially. In 2010, total coffee cultivating area was about 183.3 thousand hectares, with production of 387.2 thousand tons and coffee exporting values of 504.3 million USD, contributing up to about 80% total export values of the province. However, due to disadvantages of coffee processing sector leads to coffee products are simplistic and coffee bean is the major product known as low value added product (this product accounts for about 99% of coffee products for export). Major economic actors in the coffee industry in the Dak Lak Province include coffee farming households, collectors, processing agencies, coffee beans processing and exporting enterprises. Each economic actor has different perspectives. Coffee farming households, who have small scale and simple structure, lack of farming and processing facilities and information, especially market information and technology development. Coffee enterprises have large production scale with advanced technology for production. However, limitation of finance is common and technologies are mostly used for crudely processing stages, coffee beans processing, and product polishing, categorizing stages for export. 6.2. Approaches and analytical frameworks This study focuses on three poles which are economic, social and environmental aspects and interaction of these three elements for analysis of sustainable coffee development in the Dak Lak Province. 6.3. Research methodologies Primary research subjects of this study include coffee farming households, collectors, agencies and coffee processing and exporting companies. Eight districts and one town of the province have been selected for household level. For supply chain analysis and value chain of coffee products in Dak Lak, 10 households, 10 agencies and 10 coffee processing and exporting companies located in Dak Lak have been chosen. Secondary data ource collected are tati tical report made by Dak Lak People’ 7 Committee, Department of agricultural and rural development, Department of Statistics, General statistics, Ministry of agricultural and rural development, Ministry of investment and planning, Electronic newspapers, statistics of previous studies related to coffee, reports made by Cocoa and Coffee Association , International Coffee Organization, sources made by Western agro-forestry science and technology institute and other sources. Primary data was surveyed from representative samples of coffee farming households, collectors, agencies and coffee beans processing and exporting companies with face-to-face interview tools. Sample size includes 500 coffee farming households, 10 collectors and 10 companies. Data and information analysis methodologies are economic statistics, determining advantage competitiveness, regression, long-term investment analysis, supply chain analysis, value chain, literature surveys and the SWOT matrix. Evaluation indicators: indicators measuring development of sustainable coffee production in terms of economic pole include: (1) Total coffee production harvested (tons); (2) Value of coffee production (billion VND); (3) Ratio of coffee value (%); (4) Total coffee production consumed domestically (tons); (5) Total value of coffee for export (million USD); (6) Average profit per hectare (million VND/ ha); (7) Coffee yield per hectare (tons/ha); (8) Investment return duration in year (years); (9) Net present value (million VND/ha); (10) Internal rate of return (%); (11) Domestic rate of resource cost (times). Indicators measuring development of sustainable coffee production include: (1) Contribution of coffee industry to income of the household; (2) Ratio of households loaned credit amongst coffee farming households (%); (3) Number of labors employed for coffee production (persons); (4) Population and growth of free immigrants to Dak Lak; (5) Ratio of poor households and persons participating in coffee production; (6) Ratio of ethnic minority households standing out from poverty. Indicators measuring environmental aspects include: (1) Coffee cultivating area and its growth; (2) Ratio of coffee area subjectively irrigated (ground and underground water) (%); (3) Ratio of coffee area with favorable soil (%); and (4) Ratio of degradation of natural forest area. 8 7 CHAPTER 3 EVALUATION ON CURRENT SITUATION OF DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINABLE COFFEE PRODUCTION IN THE DAK LAK PROVINCE 7.1. Current situation of development of sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak From the theory of sustainable coffee development mentioned above, research on current situation of development of sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak basically focuses on three primary poles: sustainable coffee development in terms of economic, environmental and social aspects. 7.1.1. Development of sustainable coffee production in terms of economic aspect In order to investigate sustainable coffee development in the Dak Lak Province regarding economic angle, this study deeply analyzed some related aspects: contribution of sustainable coffee development to economic development of the Dak Lak Province; results and efficiency of coffee production, competiveness ability of coffee industry, coffee supply chain and coffee market in the Dak Lak in the previous periods for conclusion and evaluation on issues of the research. (1) Contribution of sustainable coffee development to economic development of Dak Lak Table 3.1: Contributions of coffee sector to economic development in Dak Lak Year Current price gross output (billion VND) Ratio of agricultural production to gross output (%) Ratio of coffee to agricultural production value (%) Ratio of coffee value to gross output (%) 2000 7,144 67.75 49.86 33.78 2005 15,287 65.25 31.98 20.87 2009 36,174 63.42 39.63 25.14 2010 44,765 62.38 39.69 23.96 Average 20,169 66.30 38.86 25.76 Source: Dak Lak Statistical Year Book 2004, 2007, 2010 and self calculation The result shows that from 2000 to 2010 value of agricultural production continuously accounted for significant proportion of gross output of the province. Coffee output significantly contributed to agricultural production of the province (from 26.84% to 53.14%). Coffee value accounted for about 38.86% on average of gross output of agricultural production. Coffee value added 25.76% on average to gross output of the province. Therefore, development of coffee industry is very crucial for economic development of Dak Lak. Efficient coffee development, stability and sustainability are important factors for socio-economic development of the Dak Lak Province. 9 (2) Result and Efficiency of coffee production c. Accounting for each crop year -15,00 -10,00 -5,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Năm Lợ p nh uậ n kin h tế (1 00 0 đ ồn g/ kg ) Graph 3.1: Change in economic profit per ton of coffee of households Source: Data interviewed on crop year, 2010/ 2011, Dak Lak statistical year book 2011 Data of coffee farming hou ehold ’ urvey indicate that total average co t per hectare wa 59.95 million VND. Profit per ton of coffee reached 24.67 million VND. Table 3.2: Scenarios of profit per ton of coffee beans Scenarios Value Profit/ton Scenarios Value Profit/ ton Base scenario 24.67 Base scenario 24.67 Coffee yield (ton/ha) Inflation (%) Minimum level 1.54 8.65 Minimum level 0.98 25.06 Mean – standard deviation 1.75 13.32 Mean – standard deviation 1.01 24.41 Mean 2.13 19.31 Mean 1.07 23.1 Mean + standard deviation 2.5 23.52 Mean + standard deviation 1.13 21.78 Maximum level 3.1 28.16 Maximum level 1.23 19.39 Coffee price (Mil. Dong/ton) Total cost (mil. Dong) Minimum level 4.72 -18.12 Increase 10% 65.94 22.38 Mean – standard deviation 6.62 -16.21 Increase 5% 62.94 23.53 Mean 16.51 -6.33 Decrease 5% 56.95 25.81 Mean + standard deviation 26.39 3.56 Decrease 10% 53.95 26.95 Maximum level 47.5 24.67 Coffee yield, minimum coffee price and maximum inflation, total cost decrease of 10% -38.33 Coffee yield, coffee price = Mean – standard deviation and inflation = Mean + standard deviation, total cost decrease of 5%. -29.95 Coffee yield, coffee price = Mean and inflation = Mean, total cost unchanged. -13.62 Coffee yield, coffee price = Mean + standard deviation and inflation = Mean - standard deviation, total cost increase of 5%. 0.93 Coffee yield, maximum price and minimum inflation and total cost decrease of 10% 26.59 Source: Data surveys on crop year, 2010/ 2011 and self calculation With respect to economic profit per kilogram of coffee beans on average over time, sustainable coffee development regarding economic aspect pretty much depends on coffee price on the global market and domestic market as well, coffee yield and inflation (prices of input factors). 10 The scenarios with coffee yield, coffee price and inflation has been investigated within 15 recent years (1995 – 2011), which shows that economic profit highly relies on coffee price on the global and domestic market. Supposing that with the worst scenarios of inflation, yield and production cost, sustainable coffee production is still efficient. d. Coffee production outcome and efficiency for a business circle Table 3.3: Investment outcome and efficiency for a business circle of coffee production (Calculated for 01 ha coffee area on average with different rates) Ord. # Interest rate (%) NPV (mill. dong) Profit/year (mill. dong) BCR (time) Period of investment (year) 1 8.00 103.92 8.64 1.69 7.00 2 12.00 60.83 7.59 1.61 7.00 3 14.00 46.73 6.80 1.56 8.00 4 16.00 35.82 5.96 1.51 8.00 5 20.00 20.52 4.26 1.38 8.00 6 24.00 10.79 2.69 1.26 8.00 7 28.00 4.43 1.29 1.13 10.00 8 30.00 2.11 0.66 1.07 11.00 9 32.00 0.20 0.07 1.01 19.00 10 32.24 0.00 0.00 1.00 25.00 11 34.00 -1.35 -0.48 0.95 - Source: survey data in 2011 The above Table shows that both 2 criterion, NPV and IRR, explained the efficiency of coffee production in Dak Lak. NPV reached 46.74 million dong per ha with an interest rate of 14% (equivalent to real rate afforded by households) and IRR equaled to 32.24 %, greater than current interest rates of the commercial banks. This is consistent with sustainable coffee development regarding the economic pole. (3) Competitiveness advantage analysis of the Dak Lak coffee product Table 3.4: Comparableness advantage of Dak Lak’s households coffee production and exporting “Calculated on 1 ton of coffee beans for export” Items Unit Value I. Internal cost Dong 18,346,326 II. External cost USD 1,078,69 III. Cost of procurement and exporting Dong 1,657,067 IV. Coffee export value (Average price of the first 5 months in 2011- FOB price) USD/ton 2,150 V. DRC Dong/USD 18,672 VI. OER " 19,517 VII. SER " 23,420 VIII. DRC/SER Time 0.7972 Source: Survey data and self calculation in crop year 2010/11 The result indicates that DRC/SER ratio of coffee production in Dak Lak was 0.7972 < 1, explaining that if 0.7972 USD is invested for internal cost of coffee production, it will bring a value of 11 1 USD. This estimation proofs that coffee production in Dak Lak for export purpose has competitiveness advantage and earns income for the nation. b. Analysis of factors affecting the DRC  Scenario analysis Table 3.5: Scenarios of Domestic Resources Cost, DRC “Calculated on 1 ton coffee beans for export on average” Scenarios DRC/SER Scenarios DRC/SER Base scenario 0,7972 Base scenario 0.7972 Internal cost External cost Increase 5% 0.8395 Increase 5% 0.8395 Increase 15% 0.9391 Increase 15% 0.9391 Increase 25% 1.0654 Increase 25% 1.0654 Increase 30% 1.1423 Increase 30% 1.1423 Decrease 5% 0.759 Decrease 5% 0.759 Decrease 15% 0.6926 Decrease 15% 0.6926 Decrease 25% 0.6369 Decrease 25% 0.6369 Decrease 30% 0.6123 Decrease 30% 0.6123 Coffee price for export Exchange rate Increase 5% 0.7245 Increase 5% 0.7593 Increase 15% 0.6128 Increase 15% 0.6933 Increase 25% 0.5309 Increase 25% 0.6378 Increase 30% 0.4976 Increase 30% 0.6133 Decrease 5% 0.8862 Decrease 5% 0.8392 Decrease 15% 1.1406 Decrease 15% 0.9379 Decrease 25% 1.6000 Decrease 25% 1.063 Decrease 30% 2.0035 Decrease 30% 1.1389 Internal and external cost increase by 5% , coffee price for export and exchange rate decrease by 5% 1.0375 Internal and external cost increase by 15%, coffee price for export and exchange rate decrease by 15% 1.9685 Internal and external cost decrease by 5%, coffee price for export and exchange rate increase by 5% 0.6269 Internal and external cost decrease by 10%, coffee price for export and exchange rate increase by 10% 0.5012 Internal and external cost decrease by 20%, coffee price for export and exchange rate increase by 20% 0.3316 Source: Survey data and self calculation of crop year 2010/11 The result of DRC scenarios analysis explains that coffee product in Dak Lak for exporting has number of advantages in the future. Thus, development of coffee production in the province for exporting is appropriate. However, supply channels of input factors and services for coffee farmers, collectors, processing and exporting companies are currently not well-organized and specifically networked. Consequently, farmers face many challenges such as low coffee price and high investment cost.  Time series analysis The research result shows that within 16 years up to present, (1995 – 2011), the provincial coffee industry experienced 3 distinguish periods (1995 – 1999; 2000 – 2005; 2006 – 2011). The industry overcame the most difficult period (2000 – 2006) to promote 12 sustainable coffee development in the region. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Năm D R C /S ER (l ần ) Graph 3.2: Changes in domestic resources cost, DRC “Calculated for 1 ton coffee beans for export on average” Source: International Coffee Organization, ICO (2010), survey data and self calculation of crop year 2010/11 (4) Supply chain analysis of coffee product in Dak Lak  Diagram of product value Diagram 3.1. Value flows in the coffee supply chain in Dak Lak Source: Survey data in 2010/11 and self calculation Fertilizers: 31.11 mil. dong; Pes.: 3.52 mil.dong Other inputs: 9.15 mil. dong; Labor: 16.16 mil. dong Income obtained from 1 ha of coffee (2.63 ton coffee beans/ha): 1.315 mil. dong (0.5 mil. Dong per ton on average) Input factors suppliers Coffee farming households Collectors, Agencies at communes Companies (Procuring and exporting coffee) GO obtained from 1 ha of coffee (2.63 ton of coffee beans/ha): 124.74 mil. Dong Income obtained from 1 ha of coffee (2.63 ton coffee beans/ha): 1.315 mil. dong (0.5 mil. Dong per ton on average) Income obtained from 1 ha of coffee (2.63 ton coffee beans/ha): 0.789 mil. dong (0.3 mil. Dong per ton on average) Agencies at districts, Companies 13 The result of surveys of primary flow chart of coffee supply chain in Dak Lak indicates that due to number of middle stakeholders participating in the supply chain, marketing cost is high and farmers reach low price of coffee output. The origin of product and quality of product is not clearly stated. Therefore, level of sustainability of coffee production decreases. 7.1.2. Sustainable coffee development with respect to social aspect in Dak Lak (1) Employment and free immigration to Dak Lak As analyzed above, coffee production output in Dak lak has significantly contributed to more than 40% of the provincial GDP and about one fourth of population employed (about 400 thousand persons). Table 3.6: Changes in labor resource amongst sectors in Dak Lak over time Year Total labor (person) Rate of employment for agriculture (%) Coffee labor to agricultural employment ratio (%) Coffee labor to total employment ratio (%) Coffee labor growth (%) 2005 756,892 78.14 43.22 33.77 - 2006 766,963 75.95 45.00 34.18 2.55 2007 855,462 76.05 41.25 31.37 2.38 2008 864,796 75.20 42.08 31.64 1.97 2009 873,869 74.31 43.43 32.27 3.06 2010 883,643 72.87 45.92 33.46 4.84 BQ 833,604 75.34 43.45 32.74 2.96 Source: Dak Lak Statistical Year’s Book 2007, 2010 and self calculation (2) Employment versus poverty reduction in Dak Lak Table 3.7: Poverty reduction in Dak Lak Year Number of poor households (household) Poverty reduced (household) Percentage of households (%) Percentage of poverty reduction (%) 2005 90,247 - 25.55 - 2006 79,116 -11,131 23.26 -2.29 2007 66,027 -13,089 18.66 -4.6 2008 54,357 -11,670 15.00 -3.66 2009 50,235 -4,122 13.24 -1.76 2010 48,335 -1,900 12.50 -0.74 BQ 64,720 -8,382 17.85 -2.61 Source: Dak Lak socio-economic reports from 2005 to 2010 In recent years, poverty reduction is one of the most important tasks that the party, government and other administrative authorities, organizations as well as civilians have widely supported. Coffee production has an important role for starvation clearance and poverty reduction in Dak Lak, which have been significantly positive in the previous years. Coffee sector has created more jobs and income for number of employees, therefore contributing to sustainable coffee development with respect to social aspect. 14 (3) Income and living standard of people living in Dak Lak Coffee production has created more income for people in the Dak Lak province. Income from coffee production has accounted for a high proportion of the total income of farming households. 1,59 1,13 1,22 1,67 1,96 1,92 4,81 4,10 4,23 5,25 6,13 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Năm G O C P /N K (t ri ệu đ ồn g) Graph 3.3: Gross output of coffee production per person on average in Dak Lak Source: Dak Lak Statistical Year’s Book 2004, 2007, 2010 Graph 3.3 indicates that gross output of coffee production per person was likely to significantly increase (from 1.59 million dong per person in 2000 to 5.25 million dong in 2009). This explains that coffee development in the previous years has played a crucial role for socio-economic development in Dak Lak, known as one of important factors contributing to sustainable coffee development regarding social aspect. (4) Micro-credit amongst coffee farming households The survey presented that 61.4% of households were in need of credit loan for coffee production and this number was likely to increase. Minimum amount of credit loan eligible to apply was 3 million dong (Social Policy Bank) and maximum amount was over 100 million dong (applicable for both Social Policy Bank and Agricultural and Rural Development Bank). However, coffee farmers have many difficulties for access to credit. (5) Ethnicity and sustainable coffee development At the present time, from 15% to 20% of population are local people living in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. In which, Dak Lak has this number of about 15% of total provincial population. Local people have become minority groups living in their own original places with 15 long history. Perhaps, there have been social changes in the Central Highlands in the past 30 years up to present. Nevertheless, these changes have not been carefully solved. (6) Free immigration and sustainable coffee development According to previous studies conducted from 1976 up to present, there have been 59,488 households with 289,764 people freely immigrated to the province. In which: 1976 – 1995 period, 49,748 households with 242.043 people; 1996 – 2004, 8,245 households with 40,187 people; from the beginning of 2005 to July 30, 2012, (after decision number 39/2004/CT-TTg, November 12, 2004 issued by prime minister), 1,493 households with 7,534 people from 38 other provinces moved to the province. Mostly free immigrants are currently living or residing on forest land, and changing the purpose of using this land to agricultural purposes is very hard. All the problems caused by free immigration have negative effects on sustainable coffee development in the Dak Lak Province. 7.1.3. Sustainable coffee development with respect to environmental aspect in Dak Lak This section focuses on current situation of use of resources in the province for sustainable coffee development, especially land and water resources for coffee production development. (1) Analysis of soil characteristics and sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak  Relationship between coffee planting area and natural forest area The result shows that coffee cultivating are increased 774 ha on average every year from 2001 to 2010 in the Dak Lak Province, new coffee plantation increased 3,245 ha. In contrast, natural forest area decreased 4,509 ha every year. This means that reduction in natural forest has significantly related to growth in coffee farming area in Dak Lak.  Land use of coffee production The analysis indicates that favorable land for coffee farming in Dak Lak is categorized as suitable land (Basalt soil), over 91% and highly favorable over 93% of coffee planting area in the province. This is the most important factor contributing to sustainable coffee development with respect to environmental aspect and increase in economic efficiency in coffee production. (2) Current situation of water resource for coffee production  Current situation of irrigation infrastructure for coffee production in Dak Lak. The result argues that hydro power stations have supplied water for about 40,500 ha of coffee plantation (accounting for about 20%). The rest of coffee plantation area has been irrigated by other resources or has not been irrigated. 16 In recent years, the Dak Lak provincial government has invested in irrigation system for agricultural production, although this is much less than the actual need. These investments were mostly undertaken in 2005. It is because of lack of financial capital, reservoirs, streams and rivers for building irrigation stations.  Current situation of water resources for coffee planting in Dak Lak In Dak Lak, water resources for coffee production have been extracted mostly from 2 sources,surface water and underground water. The research result shows that about 91.28% of coffee planting area has been irrigated. In which, underground water has been mostly applied, 68.71%, and the rest has been irrigated by extracting surface water, 23.17%. Table 3.7: Coffee planting area by irrigation water sources Order Item Area (ha) Percentage (%) 1 Total area 181,960 100.00 2 Irrigated area 166,090 91.28 2.1 Ground water 42,154 23.17 2.2 Underground water 123,936 68.11 3 Area without irrigation 15,870 8.72 Source: Report on Vietnam coffee development planning to 2020 with an outlook to 2030 and self calculation 7.2. Categories of primary factors affecting sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak 7.2.1. Natural condition (1) The impact of water sources on cost of irrigation Table 3.8: Irrigation water for coffee production by depth wells Order Water source Average age of coffee trees (Year) Irrigation cost (mil. dong/ha) Irrigated area (%) 1 Ground water 15.18 2.98 15,63 2 Mixed sources (wells and underground water) 14.59 3.13 33,32 2.1 Depth: 10-17 m 16.88 3.06 16,95 2.2 Depth: 18-24 m 13.26 3.1 12,92 2.3 Depth: 25-30 m 8.33 3.62 3,45 3 Ground water only (wells) 12.97 3.31 51,05 3.1 Depth: 10-17 m 15.69 3.01 17,69 3.2 Depth: 18-24 m 11.89 3.59 11,67 3.3 Depth: 25-30 m 6.75 3.68 5,69 Overall 14.21 3.15 100 Source: Survey data from crop year 2010/11 Research result illustrates that ages of coffee trees and depth of well has inverse relationship. Aged coffee trees plantations tend to consume more surface water. This explains that aged coffee trees were grown at favorable land and environment. 17 (2) The influence of sustainable coffee development on environment Coffee trees known as trees with large canopy, has high ability to prevent soil erosion and reduce velocity of rain-off. Growing stages of coffee trees can absorb Carbon dioxide, mitigate green house effect and produce oxygen for our atmosphere (Carbon circle). On the contour lines of steep land, coffee trees may help to reduce soil erosion and promote biodiversity. However, a dramatic increase of business activities and population growth lead to high demand of food, energy and material a well. In order to meet people’ demands, natural resources extraction has developed. As a result, natural resources become poorer and degradation of soil and water resources is widely common. 7.2.2. Group of factors belonging to producers themselves. (1) Estimation of technical and efficient production factors affecting coffee beans production Table 3.9: Regression outcomes under the CD model and Ln-Ln model Order Variable Coefficients t Stat P-value 1 Intercept -1.6001 -6.2806 0.0000 2 Coffee production area (ha) 0.7446 20.1965 0.0000 3 Capital for coffee production (mil. dong) 0.1596 7.3280 0.0000 4 Labor (man-day) 0.1871 3.6329 0.0003 5 Irrigation methods (1-suitable; 0-unsuitable) 0.0356 1.4486 0.1481 6 Fertilizer application (1-suitable; 0-unsuitable) 0.0380 1.9073 0.0571 7 Extension (1-yes; 0 – no) 0.0307 1.6689 0.0958 8 Soil erosion mitigation (1-yes; 0-no) 0.3215 9.3945 0.0000 9 Shaded trees (1-yes; 0-no) 0.3982 10.4701 0.0000 Source: Survey data from crop year 2010/11 and self calculation Regression model: Ln (Y)=-1.6001+0.7446Ln(X1)+0.1569Ln(X2)+0.1871ln(X3)-0.0356D1+0.0380D2+0.0307D3+0.3215D4+0.3982D5 (t) -6.2806 *** 20.1965 *** 7.3280 *** 3.3629 *** 1.4486 1.9073 * 1.6689 * 9.3945 *** 10.4701 *** R=0.93701; R 2 = 0.87799 Regression output (Table 3.9) shows: R 2 = 0.87799, this means about 88% of variance of coffee output are explained by the variation of independent variables. Coefficient of irrigation method is not statistically significant. On the other hand, there is no sufficient evidence to conclude that whether an irrigation method may more efficient than others. The rest of coefficients are statistically significant. Summation of the three regression coefficients, b1, b2 and b3, is 1.0913. This means that regression model has economy return of scale. At the present time, if the households 18 simultaneously increase area of production, labor and capital, coffee production efficiency will increase. This result confirms that coffee farming scale is small, fragmented and lack of resources such as labor and capital. Therefore, elaboration, corporation for coffee production and enhancement of resources may be strategically good for obtaining coffee production efficiency, contributing to sustainable coffee development. The regression model indicates that enhancement of efficiency in coffee production contributing to sustainable coffee development is to carry out technical extension well such as proper application of fertilizers, soil erosion prevention, good agricultural extension services, growing timber trees for reducing velocity of wind, elaboration and corporation, increase coffee farming scale with sufficient labor and capital resources. (2) Analysis of current situation of coffee harvesting and crude processing Natural quality of coffee from Dak Lak has been highly recognized although harvesting and initial processing stages have many limitations. This negatively affects quality of coffee products to meet the global coffee demand, causing low prices on the market. As a result, competitiveness ability of the Dak Lak coffee product has faced with many challenges in the global market. 7.2.3. Market factors (1) Influence of global coffee price on scale and productivity of coffee production in Dak Lak The research result shows that Vietnam coffee industry in general and Dak Lak in particular has been clearly governed by coffee prices for export. This confirms coffee demand – supply laws have regulated coffee farming area and coffee productivity as well. Therefore, development of sustainable coffee production in the province has to follow the market laws in terms of policies and institutions. (2) Domestic demand for coffee product Table 3.10 shows that there were some fluctuations of value of Dak Lak coffee from 2000 to 2010. The reason for this variation is changes in global coffee prices. However, average development rate of coffee export value was about 109.57% from 2001 to 2010 (annual growth was 9.57%). Domestic consumption value on Dak Lak coffee tended to slightly increase (average on 10 years was 8.47%). Increase in coffee export value and domestic consumption are factors contributing to sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak. Table 3.10: Changes in production, export, and domestic consumption on Dak Lak coffee product Year Coffee Export Rate of 19 production (ton) Export value (1,000 USD) Export value development rate (%) Rate of coffee for export (%) domestic consumption on coffee (%) 2000 348,289 232,789 - 97.86 7.50 2005 257,481 250,364 -0.59 118.29 8.55 2009 380,373 596,747 -9.70 94.24 9.15 2010 399,098 580,445 -2.73 85.19 9.45 Average 351,127 357,182 9.57 95.92 8.47 Source: Dak Lak Statistical Year Books 2004, 2007, 2010 and self calculation 7.2.4. Role of government and state authorities (1) Policy factors The research result shows that Government, Vietnam coffee industry and Dak Lak government have imposed a number of policies regarding coffee industry. By undertaking these policies, Dak Lak coffee sector has enhanced significant outcomes, contributing to socio-economic development of the province. However, there are various challenges and obstacles such as inconsistent policies, out of date policies and lack of stability for long- term, coffee farmers and other stakeholders do not reach information timely, policies just resolve problems temporarily, existence of many gaps generating benefits for a certain groups not for the industry as a whole, implementation of the policies faces with many ob tacle , limited financial upport for policy implication, etc… The e, therefore, significantly and negatively affect sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak. (2) Public investment support Support to public investment for coffee production development such as agricultural extension, rural credit programs, infrastructure, technology transformation, trade promotion, etc… have initially and positively affected on coffee production contributing to enhancement of competitiveness capacity of coffee industry and sustainable coffee development as well. However, public investment support for some sectors has been still limited and coffee producers actually have not received the support yet, therefore distracting sustainable coffee development in the Dak Lak Province. (3) Coffee industry management Analysis of relationship between coffee industry management and sustainable coffee development indicates that stakeholders and actors within coffee industry are not well connected. Institutions for organization of coffee industry are still weak. Therefore, management of this industry has many obstacles distracting the sustainable coffee development. 7.3. Evaluation of current situation about sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak 20 Previous research on sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak shows that sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak has focused on following aspects: i) High growth rate, great contribution to the provincial GDP (over 40%), high economic efficiency level (average profit of 24.67 million VND per ton of coffee beans, a NPV of 46.74 million VND and an IRR of 32.24%), existence of competitiveness advantage for exporting coffee (DRC/SER ratio of 0.7972); ii) Creating more jobs and enhancing income (GO of coffee per person of 6.13 million in 2010), contributing to poverty reduction schemes (poverty reduction rate of 2.61% on average); iii) Natural condition is favorable for coffee development (90% of soil quality and elevation are favorable), water resources are sufficient (25% of coffee planting area irrigated by surface water and 65% of area irrigated by underground water). Coffee production development has been less sustainable with respects to: i) Coffee output and efficiency has been likely to increase but stability, low domestic consumption (accounting for 8.47%), low quality (over 90% of coffee for export has not met the TCVN 4193-2005 quality standard), high productivity but stability, and low perception of coffee brand; ii) unstable income of coffee farmers, seasonal labor demand, rich – poor gaps amongst coffee farmers and high pressure on free immigration; iii) Degradation of forest, polluted environment, soil degradation, high dependence on underground water resource (over 65%), some coffee plantation grown in unfavorable soil condition (26.64%) and existence of coffee plantation without irrigation (8.72%). Primary factors affecting sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak include: i) Natural condition where the province has the most advantage of soil and water resources for coffee production in Vietnam; ii) Production subjects, in which technical resources has crucial role for efficiency variation; iii) Market factors, in which coffee price changes is unfavorable for sustainable coffee development; iv) Intervention from government, in which policies for coffee storage support, exchange policies and investment support for infrastructure and application of technology for coffee production have significantly contribute to enhancement of prices, competitiveness advantage, suitable for intensive coffee production area planning and contributing to sustainable coffee development. 21 8 CHAPTER 4 SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE COFFEE DEVELOPMENT IN DAK LAK Proper evaluation of current situation and factors affecting sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak is very important for policy options regarding sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak. Analysis of circumstances and domestic coffee market is known as bases for policy implication for sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak. Demand trend of coffee product has some basic changes: i) tendency of consuming high quality coffee products and organic coffee; ii) tendency of choosing coffee with sustainable certificates and certificates of origin. Vietnam sustainable coffee development views to 2020 and an outlook to 2030, strategic planning of u tainable coffee development of Dak Lak people’ committee for the future and analysis of SWOT matrix on sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak are importantly based to propose solutions for sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak. Primary solutions and policies to ensure sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak include: 8.1. Enhancing capability of coffee producers i) Training and promoting human resource, in which human resource training and enhancing perception of coffee farming workers and coffee farmers via extension services; ii) innovating production models such as coffee production based on community, building up union network of coffee producers and ethnic communities for developing sustainable coffee production. 8.2. Market solution for sustainable coffee development i) Enhancing Buon Ma Thuot coffee brand; ii) expanding domestic market based on consumer behavior research, proper marketing strategies, promotion, developing coffee processing industry and enhancing reputation of coffee business. 8.3. Investment, innovation on technologies for coffee production and business i) Planning coffee planting area to balance proportion of coffee area by ages of coffee trees; iii) Changing conventional harvest approaches; iv) innovating coffee processing technology; v) promoting high quality coffee varieties and vi) growing shaded trees for prevent wind and practicing multiple crops. 8.4. Proper use of resources for sustainable coffee development i) Proper use of land resource for sustainable coffee development in order to manage soil nutrient for coffee plantation and prevention of factors creating soil degradation, 22 enhancing soil fertility via proper application of fertilizers to balance coffee yield, production, profit and stability; ii) Proper use of water resource for sustainable coffee development such as: balancing water resources, water resource planning, more investment in dam, cannel and reservoir systems to increase use of surface water and protecting water resource by doing forest reservation and innovation on management, extraction of water resources therefore enhancing efficiency use of water resource. 8.5. Implication of proper policies and public investment support for sustainable coffee development i) Supporting coffee farmers to access to loan credit for coffee production, especially for poor households, female households, minority ethnic households and other households with serious difficulties; ii) Supporting production models as cooperatives, farmer groups, mass processing stations; iii) Supporting expansion of sustainable coffee development; iv) Encouraging households and individuals operating intensive processing stations with advanced technologies ; v) Supporting investment in application of standard certificates for coffee production and processing; vi) Supporting trade development. 23 CONCLUSION - Sustainable coffee development is a process towards changes in technologies applied for coffee production and processing as environmentally friendly strategy, promoting economic development, social equality to meet high quality coffee demand of current generation and future generation. Sustainable coffee development is known as following aspects: i) Sustainable coffee development is closely related to economic and technical perspectives of the industry; ii) Sustainable coffee development is highly correlated to competitiveness capability to join global value chain; and iii) Coffee product has stronger competitiveness level than other agricultural products. Research focus of sustainable coffee development includes: 1) Economic sustainability (growth, economic efficiency, stability, quality, enhancement of competitiveness); 2) Social sustainability (income, equality, employment and poverty reduction); 3) Environmental sustainability (proper extraction and use of natural resources and resource preservation). Based on studies on sustainable coffee development conducted in some leading coffee producing and exporting countries in over the world, the author has obtained lesions learned to ensure development of sustainable coffee production for Vietnam including: i) Enhancing coffee quality; ii) Expanding domestic market; iii) Promoting coffee industry and system of agricultural extension services; iv) Innovating and completing management policies for coffee industry; and iv) Protecting and enhancing brand for Vietnam coffee. - Development of sustainable coffee production in Dak Lak consists of: i) High growth rate, great contribution to the provincial GDP (over 40%), high economic efficiency level (average profit of 24.67 million VND per ton of coffee beans, a NPV of 46.74 million VND and an IRR of 32.24%), existence of competitiveness advantage for exporting coffee (DRC/SER ratio of 0.7972); ii) Creating more jobs and enhancing income (GO of coffee per person of 6.13 million in 2010), contributing to poverty reduction schemes (poverty reduction rate of 2.61% on average); iii) Natural condition is favorable for coffee development (90% of soil quality and elevation are favorable), water resources are sufficient (25% of coffee planting area irrigated by surface water and 65% of area irrigated by underground water). Coffee production development has been less sustainable with respects to: i) Coffee output and efficiency has been likely to increase but stability, low domestic consumption (accounting for 8.47%), low quality (over 90% of coffee for export has not met the TCVN 4193-2005 quality standard), high productivity but stability, and low perception of coffee 24 brand; ii) unstable income of coffee farmers, seasonal labor demand, rich – poor gaps amongst coffee farmers and high pressure on free immigration; iii) Degradation of forest, polluted environment, soil degradation, high dependence on underground water resource (over 65%), some coffee plantation grown in unfavorable soil condition (26.64%) and existence of coffee plantation without irrigation (8.72%). Primary factors affecting sustainable coffee development in Dak Lak include: i) Natural condition where the province has the most advantage of soil and water resources for coffee production in Vietnam; ii) Production subjects, in which technical resources has crucial role for efficiency variation; iii) Market factors, in which coffee price changes is unfavorable for sustainable coffee development; iv) Intervention from government, in which policies for coffee storage support, exchange policies and investment support for infrastructure and application of technology for coffee production have significantly contribute to enhancement of prices, competitiveness advantage, suitable for intensive coffee production area planning and contributing to sustainable coffee development. RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS RELATED TO THIS DISSERTATION BY THE AUTHOR HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED 4. Mai ăn Xu n, Nguyễn ăn Hoá (2011), “Influence of input factors on development of u tainable coffee production in the Dak Lak Province”, Hue University Journal of Science, 68(5), pages 135 -146. 5. Nguyễn ăn Hoá, Trần Đình Lý (2012), “Competitiveness capability and tendency of ietnam coffee indu try”, Journal of Development Economics, 257(3), pages 40 – 44. 6. Nguyễn ăn Hoá, Mai ăn Xu n (2012), “Investigation on competitiveness capability of Dak Lak coffee in the integrated market”, Hue University Journal of Science, 72B(3) pages121 – 132.

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