Quản trị rủi ro tín dụng của các NHTM nói chung và của Agribank nói riêng
là điều kiện sống còn để các ngân hàng tồn tại và phát triển. Quản trị rủi ro tín dụng
cũng là nền tảng để các ngân hàng nâng cao năng lực cạnh tranh và phát triển nền
kinh tế đất nước. XHTDNB là một trong những công cụ có vai trò đặc biệt quan
trọng trong hoạt động quản trị rủi ro tín dụng tại nội bộ mỗi ngân hàng.
Hoạt động XHTDNB được NHNN Việt Nam đặc biệt quan tâm chỉ đạo các
NHTM triển khai xây dựng và áp dụng hệ thống XHTDNB với việc ban hành văn
bản số 493/2005/QĐ-NHNN ngày 22/4/2005. Sau hơn 10 năm thực hiện đến nay,
hoạt động XHTDNB tại các NHTM Việt Nam cũng như của Agribank còn rất mới
mẻ, non trẻ. Do đó, hệ thống XHTDNB của Agribank không thể tránh khỏi những
hạn chế nhất định trong quá trình xây dựng và áp dụng chấm điểm xếp hạng khách
hàng có quan hệ tín dụng.
Qua quá trình nghiên cứu thực tiễn hoạt động XHTDNB tại các NHTM Việt
Nam và của Agribank, trên cơ sở lập luận, chứng minh, và sử dụng các mô hình
phân tích đánh giá, tác giả đã lựa chọn đề tài: “Xếp hạng tín dụng nội bộ theo phân
khúc thị trường tại Ngân hàng Nông nghiệp và Phát triển nông thôn Việt nam”
là nội dung nghiên cứu Luận án Tiến sĩ của mình, nhằm góp phần hoàn thiện và
nâng cao chất lượng XHTDNB tại Agribank – một NHTM nhà nước lớn nhất Việt
Nam hiện nay.
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773
v14 -.657 .185 12.551 1 .000 .519
v15 -.259 .173 2.229 1 .135 .772
Constant .043 1.208 .001 1 .971 1.044
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v12, v13, v14,
v15.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 31 .0
1 0 119 100.0
Overall Percentage 79.3
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.345 .202 44.499 1 .000 3.839
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 2.855 1 .091
v12 3.771 1 .052
v13 2.833 1 .092
v14 11.095 1 .001
v15 4.162 1 .041
Overall Statistics 27.110 5 .000
85
Hàm hồi quy V30
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 45.215 6 .000
Block 45.215 6 .000
Model 45.215 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 72.587a .260 .478
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V30_M
H
0 10 10 50.0
1 3 127 97.7
Overall Percentage 91.3
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Nhomtuoi .858 .380 5.103 1 .024 2.359
v05.2 -1.087 .666 2.665 1 .093 .337
v06 .657 .282 5.411 1 .020 1.929
v15 .843 .328 6.607 1 .010 2.323
v20 .649 .435 2.227 1 .036 1.914
v21 .359 .487 .545 1 .060 1.433
Constant -6.537 2.106 9.633 1 .002 .001
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v05.2, v06, v15, v20, v21.
86
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V30_M
H
0 0 20 .0
1 0 130 100.0
Overall Percentage 86.7
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.872 .240 60.730 1 .000 6.500
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 9.587 1 .002
v05.2 19.196 1 .000
v06 17.439 1 .000
v15 3.150 1 .076
v20 12.013 1 .001
v21 11.101 1 .001
Overall Statistics 37.300 6 .000
Vùng 4
Hàm hồi quy V24
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 89.387 5 .000
Block 89.387 5 .000
Model 89.387 5 .000
87
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 98.279a .393 .605
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V24_M
H
0 28 11 71.8
1 6 134 95.7
Overall Percentage 90.5
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v04 1.213 .783 2.399 1 .021 3.363
v07 .710 .568 1.560 1 .012 2.034
v09 -1.619 .372 18.992 1 .000 .198
v11 .946 .321 8.675 1 .003 2.575
v21 -.513 .215 5.719 1 .017 .599
Constant 2.687 2.157 1.552 1 .213 14.689
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v04, v07, v09, v11, v21.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V24_M
H
0 0 39 .0
1 0 140 100.0
Overall Percentage 78.2
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
88
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.278 .181 49.826 1 .000 3.590
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v04 8.138 1 .004
v07 6.577 1 .010
v09 61.652 1 .000
v11 37.686 1 .000
v21 18.896 1 .000
Overall Statistics 81.580 5 .000
Hàm hồi quy V25
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 55.360 5 .000
Block 55.360 5 .000
Model 55.360 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 24.337a .266 .420
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V25_M
H
0 14 22 38.9
1 12 131 91.6
Overall Percentage 81.0
a. The cut value is .500
89
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Gioitinh 1.572 .505 9.712 1 .002 4.818
Nhomtuoi -.397 .219 3.291 1 .070 .672
v06 -.373 .180 4.271 1 .039 .689
v15.2 -1.925 .477 16.283 1 .000 .146
v19 -.490 .219 5.011 1 .025 .613
Constant 6.187 1.258 24.193 1 .000 486.201
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, Nhomtuoi, v06, v15.2, v19.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V25_M
H
0 0 36 .0
1 0 143 100.0
Overall Percentage 79.9
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.379 .186 54.717 1 .000 3.972
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 7.417 1 .006
Nhomtuoi 11.427 1 .001
v06 19.872 1 .000
v15.2 24.155 1 .000
v19 6.572 1 .010
Overall Statistics 50.324 5 .000
90
Hàm hồi quy V26
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 83.494 6 .000
Block 83.494 6 .000
Model 83.494 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 87.607a .373 .606
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V26.HC 0 23 10 69.7
1 5 141 96.6
Overall Percentage 91.6
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a V24_MH 4.155 .804 26.696 1 .000 63.727
V25_MH 2.641 .705 14.042 1 .000 14.027
V27_MH .467 .734 .405 1 .525 1.595
V28_MH 3.421 .761 20.184 1 .000 30.601
v29_MH 3.206 .715 20.110 1 .000 24.674
V30_MH 1.540 .716 4.621 1 .032 4.665
Constant -9.432 1.940 23.648 1 .000 .000
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH,
v29_MH, V30_MH.
91
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 33 .0
1 0 146 100.0
Overall Percentage 81.6
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.487 .193 59.524 1 .000 4.424
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables V24_MH 30.409 1 .000
V25_MH 4.402 1 .036
V27_MH .248 1 .619
V28_MH 11.676 1 .001
v29_MH 18.410 1 .000
V30_MH .430 1 .512
Overall Statistics 73.340 6 .000
Hàm hồi quy V26 lần 2
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 83.091 5 .000
Block 83.091 5 .000
Model 83.091 5 .000
92
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 88.011a .371 .603
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V26.HC 0 23 10 69.7
1 5 141 96.6
Overall Percentage 91.6
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a V24_MH 4.048 .772 27.466 1 .000 57.265
V25_MH 2.572 .688 13.961 1 .000 13.094
V28_MH 3.465 .761 20.703 1 .000 31.972
v29_MH 3.191 .708 20.325 1 .000 24.317
V30_MH 1.458 .697 4.374 1 .036 4.296
Constant -8.909 1.697 27.546 1 .000 .000
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V28_MH, v29_MH,
V30_MH.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 33 .0
1 0 146 100.0
Overall Percentage 81.6
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
93
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.487 .193 59.524 1 .000 4.424
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables V24_MH 30.409 1 .000
V25_MH 4.402 1 .036
V28_MH 11.676 1 .001
v29_MH 18.410 1 .000
V30_MH .430 1 .512
Overall Statistics 73.172 5 .000
Hàm hồi quy V27
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 91.094 10 .000
Block 91.094 10 .000
Model 91.094 10 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 48.558a .399 .593
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V27_M
H
0 27 17 61.4
1 13 122 90.4
Overall Percentage 83.2
a. The cut value is .500
94
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Gioitinh -1.538 .572 7.234 1 .007 .215
v04 -2.028 .796 6.486 1 .011 .132
v05.1 3.704 .759 23.791 1 .000 40.610
v07 -.782 .456 2.947 1 .086 .457
v11 -.647 .293 4.875 1 .027 .523
v12 1.587 .484 10.754 1 .001 4.888
v14 1.003 .266 14.255 1 .000 2.727
v17 -.543 .251 4.665 1 .031 .581
v18 .964 .348 7.648 1 .006 2.621
v23 1.362 .335 16.560 1 .000 3.905
Constant -5.163 2.768 3.480 1 .062 .006
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, v04, v05.1, v07, v11, v12, v14, v17,
v18, v23.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V27_M
H
0 0 44 .0
1 0 135 100.0
Overall Percentage 75.4
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.121 .174 41.707 1 .000 3.068
95
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 3.824 1 .051
v04 1.043 1 .037
v05.1 19.356 1 .000
v07 1.503 1 .020
v11 4.471 1 .034
v12 7.615 1 .006
v14 18.356 1 .000
v17 .282 1 .096
v18 3.717 1 .054
v23 8.051 1 .005
Overall Statistics 72.948 10 .000
Hàm hồi quy V28
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 18.045 4 .001
Block 18.045 4 .001
Model 18.045 4 .001
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 64.376a .096 .150
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V28_M
H
0 5 32 13.5
1 1 141 99.3
Overall Percentage 81.6
a. The cut value is .500
96
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a TTNT .935 .430 4.731 1 .030 2.547
v05.1 .921 .422 4.764 1 .029 2.511
v14 .409 .146 7.869 1 .005 1.505
v19 -.343 .182 3.553 1 .059 .709
Constant .777 .851 .835 1 .361 2.175
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: TTNT, v05.1, v14, v19.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V28_M
H
0 0 37 .0
1 0 142 100.0
Overall Percentage 79.3
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.345 .185 53.091 1 .000 3.838
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables TTNT 1.027 1 .311
v05.1 5.539 1 .019
v14 5.138 1 .023
v19 1.593 1 .207
Overall Statistics 17.414 4 .002
Hàm hồi quy V29
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 20.444 6 .002
Block 20.444 6 .002
Model 20.444 6 .002
97
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 53.595a .108 .174
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 v29_MH 0 5 29 14.7
1 3 142 97.9
Overall Percentage 82.1
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Nhomtuoi -.274 .256 1.145 1 .085 .760
v07 -.595 .424 1.971 1 .060 .551
v08 .985 .503 3.830 1 .050 2.679
v12 .780 .316 6.076 1 .014 2.181
v16 .269 .227 1.398 1 .037 1.308
v18 .516 .293 3.099 1 .078 1.676
Constant .914 1.928 .225 1 .635 2.495
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v07, v08, v12, v16, v18.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 34 .0
1 0 145 100.0
Overall Percentage 81.0
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
98
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.450 .191 57.937 1 .000 4.265
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 3.179 1 .075
v07 3.029 1 .082
v08 6.841 1 .009
v12 3.122 1 .077
v16 6.622 1 .010
v18 3.070 1 .080
Overall Statistics 19.193 6 .004
Hàm hồi quy V30
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 27.045 5 .000
Block 27.045 5 .000
Model 27.045 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 52.652a .140 .221
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V30_M
H
0 7 29 19.4
1 5 138 96.5
Overall Percentage 81.0
a. The cut value is .500
99
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Nhomtuoi -.320 .194 2.723 1 .099 .726
TTNT 1.155 .464 6.199 1 .013 3.173
v06 -.159 .179 .782 1 .077 .853
v11 -.217 .235 .850 1 .057 .805
v15 .248 .178 1.937 1 .064 1.281
Constant 1.873 .985 3.620 1 .057 6.510
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, TTNT, v06, v11,
v15.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V30_M
H
0 0 36 .0
1 0 143 100.0
Overall Percentage 79.9
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.379 .186 54.717 1 .000 3.972
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 9.396 1 .002
TTNT 14.677 1 .000
v06 14.513 1 .000
v11 7.633 1 .006
v15 3.743 1 .053
Overall Statistics 26.393 5 .000
100
VÙNG 5
Hàm hồi quy V24
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 33.119 5 .000
Block 33.119 5 .000
Model 33.119 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 36.275a .228 .344
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V24_M
H
0 13 17 43.3
1 9 89 90.8
Overall Percentage 79.7
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v08 2.176 .642 11.474 1 .001 8.809
v14 -.192 .237 .658 1 .017 .825
v18.1 -1.633 .564 8.369 1 .004 .195
v20 -.599 .247 5.877 1 .015 .549
v23 .596 .247 5.845 1 .016 1.815
Constant .352 1.068 .108 1 .042 1.421
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v08, v14, v18.1, v20, v23.
101
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V24_M
H
0 0 30 .0
1 0 98 100.0
Overall Percentage 76.6
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.184 .209 32.186 1 .000 3.267
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v08 16.567 1 .000
v14 .664 1 .015
v18.1 10.923 1 .001
v20 4.217 1 .040
v23 1.066 1 .002
Overall Statistics 33.285 5 .000
Hàm hồi quy V25
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 56.854 6 .000
Block 56.854 6 .000
Model 56.854 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 77.628a .359 .552
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
102
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V25_M
H
0 16 12 57.1
1 3 97 97.0
Overall Percentage 88.3
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v07 -1.707 .760 5.039 1 .025 .181
v09 -1.747 .736 5.632 1 .018 .174
v11 .911 .354 6.612 1 .010 2.488
v15 -.806 .257 9.880 1 .002 .446
v16 1.030 .338 9.280 1 .002 2.800
v23 -.532 .262 4.117 1 .042 .587
Constant 9.204 3.604 6.522 1 .011 9934.413
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v07, v09, v11, v15, v16,
v23.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V25_M
H
0 0 28 .0
1 0 100 100.0
Overall Percentage 78.1
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.273 .214 35.447 1 .000 3.571
103
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v07 10.159 1 .001
v09 20.121 1 .000
v11 6.981 1 .008
v15 9.871 1 .002
v16 19.996 1 .000
v23 1.407 1 .036
Overall Statistics 47.996 6 .000
Hàm hồi quy V26
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 73.447 6 .000
Block 73.447 6 .000
Model 73.447 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 70.510a .437 .647
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V26.HC 0 22 10 68.8
1 5 91 94.8
Overall Percentage 88.3
a. The cut value is .500
104
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a V24_MH 4.284 .894 22.981 1 .000 72.495
V25_MH 2.563 .815 9.888 1 .002 12.975
V27_MH 1.003 .675 2.205 1 .038 2.727
V28_MH 3.147 .906 12.071 1 .001 23.269
v29_MH 1.623 .747 4.723 1 .030 5.071
V30_MH 2.720 .782 12.091 1 .001 15.182
Constant -9.410 2.087 20.329 1 .000 .000
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH,
v29_MH, V30_MH.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 32 .0
1 0 96 100.0
Overall Percentage 75.0
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.099 .204 28.967 1 .000 3.000
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables V24_MH 36.281 1 .000
V25_MH 6.095 1 .014
V27_MH .667 1 .414
V28_MH 2.844 1 .092
v29_MH 1.798 1 .180
V30_MH 18.205 1 .000
Overall Statistics 61.251 6 .000
105
Hàm hồi quy V27
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 46.431 8 .000
Block 46.431 8 .000
Model 46.431 8 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 99.683a .304 .447
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V27_M
H
0 19 14 57.6
1 9 86 90.5
Overall Percentage 82.0
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Nhomtuoi .584 .321 3.314 1 .069 1.792
v05 .515 .272 3.587 1 .058 1.673
v06 -.880 .311 7.998 1 .005 .415
v10 -1.209 .570 4.495 1 .034 .299
v13 -1.810 .455 15.805 1 .000 .164
v16 -.712 .387 3.394 1 .065 .491
v17 .489 .226 4.695 1 .030 1.631
v18 -.488 .302 2.609 1 .096 .614
Constant 9.383 2.594 13.084 1 .000 11888.462
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v05, v06, v10, v13, v16,
v17, v18.
106
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V27_M
H
0 0 33 .0
1 0 95 100.0
Overall Percentage 74.2
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.057 .202 27.383 1 .000 2.879
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 1.118 1 .090
v05 2.632 1 .005
v06 2.929 1 .087
v10 .903 1 .042
v13 23.964 1 .000
v16 1.481 1 .024
v17 .190 1 .063
v18 1.133 1 .087
Overall Statistics 36.944 8 .000
Hàm hồi quy V28
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 71.382 6 .000
Block 71.382 6 .000
Model 71.382 6 .000
107
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 68.012a .427 .644
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 20
because maximum iterations has been reached.
Final solution cannot be found.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V28_M
H
0 23 7 76.7
1 7 91 92.9
Overall Percentage 89.1
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Gioitinh .208 .664 .098 1 .054 1.231
v09 1.615 6749.389 .000 1 .098 1.215E8
v15.1 -2.111 1.096 3.711 1 .054 .121
v18 .138 .368 .140 1 .008 1.148
v19 .999 .208 23.113 1 .000 2.717
v21 1.255 .422 8.847 1 .003 3.508
Constant -2.642 6749.389 .000 1 .097 .000
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, v09, v15.1, v18, v19, v21.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V28_M
H
0 0 30 .0
1 0 98 100.0
Overall Percentage 76.6
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
108
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.184 .209 32.186 1 .000 3.267
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 2.975 1 .085
v09 3.922 1 .048
v15.1 3.438 1 .064
v18 6.823 1 .009
v19 46.691 1 .000
v21 8.360 1 .004
Overall Statistics 58.089 6 .000
Hàm hồi quy V29
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 61.633 5 .000
Block 61.633 5 .000
Model 61.633 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 75.350a .382 .582
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 v29_MH 0 21 8 72.4
1 8 91 91.9
Overall Percentage 87.5
a. The cut value is .500
109
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v06 -1.000 .593 2.845 1 .092 .368
v07 1.257 .376 11.210 1 .001 3.516
v10 -.677 .631 1.151 1 .083 .508
v15 .982 .261 14.207 1 .000 2.670
v14 .163 .313 .272 1 .002 1.177
Constant .361 3.558 .010 1 .119 1.435
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v07, v10, v15, v14.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 29 .0
1 0 99 100.0
Overall Percentage 77.3
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.228 .211 33.814 1 .000 3.414
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v06 17.920 1 .000
v07 35.946 1 .000
v10 5.017 1 .025
v15 22.427 1 .000
v14 6.775 1 .009
Overall Statistics 54.935 5 .000
110
Hàm hồi quy V30
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 25.717 4 .000
Block 25.717 4 .000
Model 25.717 4 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 21.266a .182 .277
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V30_M
H
0 7 22 24.1
1 8 91 91.9
Overall Percentage 76.6
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v06 .551 .213 6.698 1 .010 1.734
v07 -.515 .456 1.273 1 .059 .598
v20 .371 .251 2.174 1 .040 1.449
v23 .312 .228 1.877 1 .071 1.366
Constant -.767 2.217 .120 1 .229 .464
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v07, v20,
v23.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V30_M
H
0 0 29 .0
1 0 99 100.0
Overall Percentage 77.3
111
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v06 .551 .213 6.698 1 .010 1.734
v07 -.515 .456 1.273 1 .059 .598
v20 .371 .251 2.174 1 .040 1.449
v23 .312 .228 1.877 1 .071 1.366
Constant -.767 2.217 .120 1 .229 .464
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.228 .211 33.814 1 .000 3.414
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v06 16.789 1 .000
v07 6.278 1 .012
v20 7.807 1 .005
v23 7.989 1 .005
Overall Statistics 23.697 4 .000
VÙNG 6
Hàm hồi quy V24
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 49.959 6 .000
Block 49.959 6 .000
Model 49.959 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 42.393a .226 .360
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
112
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V24_M
H
0 17 21 44.7
1 4 153 97.5
Overall Percentage 87.2
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Gioitinh -.943 .453 4.325 1 .038 .390
Nhomtuoi .478 .219 4.781 1 .029 1.614
v12 .651 .350 3.463 1 .063 1.918
v15 -.297 .168 3.119 1 .077 .743
v16 .772 .206 14.018 1 .000 2.164
v21 -.428 .179 5.705 1 .017 .652
Constant -.917 1.327 .477 1 .490 .400
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, Nhomtuoi, v12, v15, v16,
v21.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V24_M
H
0 0 38 .0
1 0 157 100.0
Overall Percentage 80.5
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.419 .181 61.575 1 .000 4.132
113
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 4.034 1 .045
Nhomtuoi 7.976 1 .005
v12 3.822 1 .051
v15 2.981 1 .084
v16 29.054 1 .000
v21 15.614 1 .000
Overall Statistics 47.161 6 .000
Hàm hồi quy V25
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 73.819 7 .000
Block 73.819 7 .000
Model 73.819 7 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 115.662a .315 .507
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V25_M
H
0 20 17 54.1
1 4 154 97.5
Overall Percentage 89.2
a. The cut value is .500
114
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v05 -.859 .209 16.921 1 .000 .424
v06 1.043 .265 15.455 1 .000 2.837
v10 -1.047 .427 6.025 1 .014 .351
v11 .602 .323 3.469 1 .063 1.825
v13 .975 .467 4.361 1 .037 2.650
v21 -.503 .204 6.070 1 .014 .605
v22 -.734 .387 3.607 1 .058 .480
Constant 3.848 1.404 7.511 1 .006 46.914
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v05, v06, v10, v11, v13, v21, v22.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V25_M
H
0 0 37 .0
1 0 158 100.0
Overall Percentage 81.0
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.452 .183 63.178 1 .000 4.270
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v05 20.232 1 .000
v06 13.520 1 .000
v10 4.629 1 .031
v11 9.258 1 .002
v13 9.313 1 .002
v21 7.733 1 .005
v22 14.560 1 .000
Overall Statistics 61.416 7 .000
115
Hàm hồi quy V26
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 94.858 6 .000
Block 94.858 6 .000
Model 94.858 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 115.822a .385 .583
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V26.HC 0 31 14 68.9
1 7 143 95.3
Overall Percentage 89.2
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a V24_MH .274 .551 .247 1 .019 1.315
V25_MH 2.647 .662 15.975 1 .000 14.114
V27_MH 2.882 .626 21.204 1 .000 17.855
V28_MH 1.278 .547 5.464 1 .019 3.589
v29_MH 3.279 .601 29.767 1 .000 26.546
V30_MH 1.890 .539 12.315 1 .000 6.619
Constant -7.505 1.307 32.989 1 .000 .001
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH,
v29_MH, V30_MH.
116
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 45 .0
1 0 150 100.0
Overall Percentage 76.9
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.204 .170 50.177 1 .000 3.333
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables V24_MH 5.038 1 .025
V25_MH 24.685 1 .000
V27_MH 13.454 1 .000
V28_MH 13.564 1 .000
v29_MH 31.698 1 .000
V30_MH 7.122 1 .008
Overall Statistics 84.088 6 .000
Hàm hồi quy V27
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 27.502 5 .000
Block 27.502 5 .000
Model 27.502 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 61.979a .132 .212
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
117
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V27_M
H
0 7 30 18.9
1 4 154 97.5
Overall Percentage 82.6
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Gioitinh 1.004 .415 5.868 1 .015 2.730
Nhomtuoi -.625 .196 10.200 1 .001 .535
v04 -.439 .420 1.092 1 .096 .644
v16 .533 .190 7.822 1 .005 1.703
v17 -.259 .147 3.109 1 .078 .772
Constant 2.431 .889 7.479 1 .006 11.367
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, Nhomtuoi, v04, v16, v17.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V27_M
H
0 0 37 .0
1 0 158 100.0
Overall Percentage 81.0
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.452 .183 63.178 1 .000 4.270
118
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 3.253 1 .071
Nhomtuoi 7.910 1 .005
v04 4.691 1 .030
v16 5.408 1 .020
v17 5.582 1 .018
Overall Statistics 26.920 5 .000
Hàm hồi quy V28
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 81.451 5 .000
Block 81.451 5 .000
Model 81.451 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 40.564a .341 .502
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V28_M
H
0 35 15 70.0
1 9 136 93.8
Overall Percentage 87.7
a. The cut value is .500
119
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Gioitinh -1.749 .476 13.494 1 .000 .174
TTNT -1.205 .529 5.193 1 .023 .300
v05 -.945 .204 21.455 1 .000 .389
v06 .688 .209 10.796 1 .001 1.990
v10 .595 .329 3.265 1 .071 1.813
Constant 1.750 .998 3.075 1 .079 5.755
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, TTNT, v05, v06,
v10.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V28_M
H
0 0 50 .0
1 0 145 100.0
Overall Percentage 74.4
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.065 .164 42.147 1 .000 2.900
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 18.507 1 .000
TTNT 11.894 1 .001
v05 29.349 1 .000
v06 24.845 1 .000
v10 8.195 1 .004
Overall Statistics 67.598 5 .000
120
Hàm hồi quy V29
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 62.901 6 .000
Block 62.901 6 .000
Model 62.901 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 45.342a .276 .420
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 v29_MH 0 21 23 47.7
1 8 143 94.7
Overall Percentage 84.1
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v05 -.703 .205 11.721 1 .001 .495
v09 -.768 .262 8.605 1 .003 .464
v10 -.993 .344 8.323 1 .004 .370
v11 -.513 .235 4.759 1 .029 .599
v15 .859 .225 14.594 1 .000 2.362
v16 .403 .225 3.214 1 .073 1.496
Constant 3.675 1.285 8.177 1 .004 39.465
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v05, v09, v10, v11, v15,
v16.
121
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 44 .0
1 0 151 100.0
Overall Percentage 77.4
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.233 .171 51.807 1 .000 3.432
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v05 10.949 1 .001
v09 19.774 1 .000
v10 4.451 1 .035
v11 5.340 1 .021
v15 12.330 1 .000
v16 10.425 1 .001
Overall Statistics 57.772 6 .000
Hàm hồi quy V30
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 64.417a .211 .320
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V30_M
H
0 18 27 40.0
1 9 141 94.0
Overall Percentage 81.5
a. The cut value is .500
122
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v09 -.519 .248 4.401 1 .036 .595
v12 .750 .323 5.378 1 .020 2.117
v15 .284 .175 2.639 1 .004 1.328
v16 .097 .198 .240 1 .024 1.102
v20 -.253 .247 1.045 1 .007 .777
v21 -.637 .288 4.891 1 .027 .529
v23 .332 .263 1.586 1 .008 1.393
Constant 1.002 1.102 .828 1 .363 2.725
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v09, v12, v15, v16, v20, v21, v23.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V30_M
H
0 0 45 .0
1 0 150 100.0
Overall Percentage 76.9
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.204 .170 50.177 1 .000 3.333
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v09 10.338 1 .001
v12 6.505 1 .011
v15 8.186 1 .004
v16 7.463 1 .006
v20 20.358 1 .000
v21 29.630 1 .000
v23 4.099 1 .043
Overall Statistics 45.308 7 .000
123
VÙNG 7
Hàm hồi quy V24
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 33.082 5 .000
Block 33.082 5 .000
Model 33.082 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 101.308a .260 .368
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V24_M
H
0 15 18 45.5
1 5 72 93.5
Overall Percentage 79.1
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v08 1.142 .679 2.829 1 .093 3.133
v11 -.485 .246 3.870 1 .049 .616
v15 -.729 .244 8.955 1 .003 .482
v17 -.536 .217 6.105 1 .013 .585
v21 -.227 .336 .456 1 .050 .797
Constant 5.032 1.490 11.408 1 .001 5.225
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v08, v11, v15, v17, v21.
124
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V24_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V24_M
H
0 0 33 .0
1 0 77 100.0
Overall Percentage 70.0
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant .847 .208 16.584 1 .000 2.333
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v08 7.955 1 .005
v11 3.605 1 .058
v15 11.196 1 .001
v17 12.697 1 .000
v21 8.856 1 .003
Overall Statistics 31.002 5 .000
Hàm hồi quy V25
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 36.742 4 .000
Block 36.742 4 .000
Model 36.742 4 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 98.358a .282 .400
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
125
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V25_M
H
0 20 13 60.6
1 9 69 88.5
Overall Percentage 80.2
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v06 -.573 .226 6.414 1 .011 .564
v10 -1.159 .415 7.811 1 .005 .314
v11 -.683 .258 7.006 1 .008 .505
v12 -.594 .292 4.126 1 .042 .552
Constant 8.727 1.785 23.896 1 .000 6.971
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v10, v11, v12.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V25_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V25_M
H
0 0 33 .0
1 0 78 100.0
Overall Percentage 70.3
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant .860 .208 17.159 1 .000 2.364
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v06 14.342 1 .000
v10 9.286 1 .002
v11 10.052 1 .002
v12 9.148 1 .002
Overall Statistics 29.556 4 .000
126
Hàm hồi quy V26
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 46.378 6 .000
Block 46.378 6 .000
Model 46.378 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 74.466a .342 .515
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V26.HC 0 17 9 65.4
1 2 83 97.6
Overall Percentage 90.1
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a V24_MH 1.399 .625 5.001 1 .025 4.050
V25_MH 1.180 .619 3.628 1 .057 3.253
V27_MH 2.388 .660 13.093 1 .000 10.893
V28_MH 2.017 .669 9.084 1 .003 7.512
v29_MH 2.078 .668 9.669 1 .002 7.985
V30_MH 1.272 .677 3.534 1 .060 3.569
Constant -5.274 1.257 17.615 1 .000 .005
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH,
v29_MH, V30_MH.
127
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V26.HC Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 26 .0
1 0 85 100.0
Overall Percentage 76.6
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant 1.185 .224 27.937 1 .000 3.269
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables V24_MH 6.678 1 .010
V25_MH 6.678 1 .010
V27_MH 12.382 1 .000
V28_MH 7.831 1 .005
v29_MH 8.299 1 .004
V30_MH .388 1 .533
Overall Statistics 41.874 6 .000
Hàm hồi quy V27
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 24.918 5 .000
Block 24.918 5 .000
Model 24.918 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 104.625a .201 .292
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
128
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V27_M
H
0 11 19 36.7
1 4 77 95.1
Overall Percentage 79.3
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Nhomtuoi -.546 .275 3.934 1 .047 .579
v11 -.397 .250 2.514 1 .013 .673
v16 .707 .260 7.373 1 .007 2.028
v20 .805 .480 2.809 1 .094 2.236
v21 -1.399 .514 7.405 1 .007 .247
Constant 2.686 1.397 3.699 1 .054 14.675
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v11, v16, v20,
v21.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V27_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V27_M
H
0 0 30 .0
1 0 81 100.0
Overall Percentage 73.0
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant .993 .214 21.597 1 .000 2.700
129
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 3.219 1 .073
v11 4.070 1 .044
v16 7.703 1 .006
v20 4.908 1 .027
v21 9.840 1 .002
Overall Statistics 23.113 5 .000
Hàm hồi quy V28
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 44.849 6 .000
Block 44.849 6 .000
Model 44.849 6 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 52.759a .335 .469
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V28_M
H
0 23 12 65.7
1 8 67 89.3
Overall Percentage 81.8
a. The cut value is .500
130
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v06 -.992 .285 12.146 1 .000 .371
v08 -1.907 .952 4.019 1 .045 .148
v11 .592 .256 5.344 1 .021 1.807
v14 -.476 .308 2.390 1 .022 .622
v15 .393 .235 2.811 1 .094 1.482
v16 -.344 .373 .851 1 .056 .709
Constant 6.625 2.111 9.848 1 .002 7.859
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v08, v11, v14, v15,
v16.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V28_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V28_M
H
0 0 35 .0
1 0 75 100.0
Overall Percentage 68.2
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant .762 .205 13.861 1 .000 2.143
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v06 22.302 1 .000
v08 3.727 1 .054
v11 2.797 1 .094
v14 13.709 1 .000
v15 2.999 1 .083
v16 3.720 1 .054
Overall Statistics 36.948 6 .000
131
Hàm hồi quy V29
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 22.576 5 .000
Block 22.576 5 .000
Model 22.576 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 37.915a .186 .257
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because
parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 v29_MH 0 16 21 43.2
1 12 61 83.6
Overall Percentage 70.0
a. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a v08 .904 .608 2.212 1 .037 2.469
v15 .504 .225 5.019 1 .025 1.655
v17 -.130 .211 .382 1 .037 .878
v20 -.447 .309 2.092 1 .048 .640
v22 -.755 .369 4.185 1 .041 .470
Constant 2.322 1.362 2.905 1 .088 10.197
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v08, v15, v17, v20, v22.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
v29_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 37 .0
1 0 73 100.0
Overall Percentage 66.4
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
132
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant .680 .202 11.339 1 .001 1.973
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables v08 3.357 1 .067
v15 3.017 1 .082
v17 6.677 1 .010
v20 11.181 1 .001
v22 8.884 1 .003
Overall Statistics 19.451 5 .002
Hàm hồi quy V30
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 39.819 5 .000
Block 39.819 5 .000
Model 39.819 5 .000
Model Summary
Step
-2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell
R Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 34.572a .304 .431
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7
because parameter estimates changed by less than
.001.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 1 V30_M
H
0 17 16 51.5
1 8 69 89.6
Overall Percentage 78.2
a. The cut value is .500
133
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Gioitinh -.951 .558 2.909 1 .088 .386
v05 .611 .315 3.755 1 .053 1.842
v07 -1.932 1.166 2.747 1 .097 .145
v15 -1.092 .325 11.272 1 .001 .336
v20 .713 .285 6.282 1 .012 2.041
Constant 9.096 4.807 3.581 1 .058 8.422
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, v05, v07, v15,
v20.
Classification Tablea,b
Observed
Predicted
V30_MH Percentage
Correct 0 1
Step 0 V30_M
H
0 0 33 .0
1 0 77 100.0
Overall Percentage 70.0
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. The cut value is .500
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant .847 .208 16.584 1 .000 2.333
Variables not in the Equation
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 4.365 1 .037
v05 4.077 1 .043
v07 6.846 1 .009
v15 8.821 1 .003
v20 12.767 1 .000
Overall Statistics 30.824 5 .000
134
Phụ lục số 23: Phân vùng quản lý tín dụng tại Agribank hiện nay
STT Khu vực STT Khu vực
K01- Khu vực miền núi cao - Biên giới K07- Khu vực Tây Nguyên
1 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lai Châu 78 Chi nhánh tỉnh Gia Lai
2 Chi nhánh tỉnh Sơn La 79 Chi nhánh tỉnh Kon Tum
3 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hà Giang 80 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đăk Lăk
4 Chi nhánh tỉnh Cao Bằng 81 Chi nhánh Buôn Hô
5 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lạng Son 82 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đăk Nông
6 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bắc Cạn 83 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lâm Đồng
7 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lào Cai 84 Chi nhánh Dâu tằm Tơ
8 Chi nhánh tỉnh Điện Biên K08- Khu vực TP. Hồ Chí Minh
K02- Khu vực Trung du Bắc Bộ 85 Chi nhánh Sài Gòn
9 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bắc Giang 86 Chi nhánh Quận 1
10 Chi nhánh tỉnh Phú Thọ 87 Chi nhánh 3
11 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hòa Binh 88 Chi nhánh Lý thường Kiệt
12 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Ninh 89 Chi nhánh Phú Nhuận
13 Chi nhánh TP Móng Cái – Quảng Ninh 90 Chi nhánh An Phú
14 Chi nhánh tỉnh Tuyên Quang 91 Chi nhánh Phan Đinh Phùng
15 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thái Nguyên 92 Chi nhánh Trường Sơn
16 Chi nhánh tỉnh Yên Bái 93 Chi nhánh TP. Hồ Chí Minh
K03- Khu vực Hà Nội 94 Chi nhánh 8
17 Sở Giao dịch 95 Chi nhánh Mạc Thị Bưởi
18 Chi nhánh Long Biên 96 Chi nhánh 4
19 Chi nhánh Hoàng Mai 97 Chi nhánh KCN Tân Tạo
20 Chi nhánh Thăng Long 98 Chi nhánh Miền Đông
21 Chi nhánh Trung Yên 99 Chi nhánh Hiệp Phước
22 Chi nhánh Hà Thành 100 Chi nhánh Thủ Đức
23 Chi nhánh Tràng An 101 Chi nhánh Củ Chi - TPHCM
24 Chi nhánh Láng Hạ 102 Chi nhánh An Sương
25 Chi nhánh Bách Khoa 103 Chi nhánh Hóc Môn
26 Chi nhánh Mỹ Đình 104 Chi nhánh Xuyên Á
27 Chi nhánh Đông Hà Nội 105 Chi nhánh Nam Sài Gòn
28 Chi nhánh Bắc Hà Nội 106 Chi nhánh Cần Giờ
29 Chi nhánh Hoàng Quốc Việt 107 Chi nhánh Bình Tân
30 Chi nhánh Nam Hà Nội 108 Chi nhánh Chợ Lớn
31 Chi nhánh Tây Đô 109 Chi nhánh Quận 5
32 Chi nhánh Tây Hà Nội 110 Chi nhánh Thành Đô
33 Chi nhánh Thủ Đô 111 Chi nhánh Đông Sài Gòn
34 Chi nhánh TP. Hà Nội 112 Chi nhánh 9 TPHCM
35 Chi nhánh Hoàn Kiếm 113 Chi nhánh Tây Sài Gòn
36 Chi nhánh Đống Đa 114 Chi nhánh Bắc Sài Gòn
37 Chi nhánh Tây Hồ 115 Chi nhánh Nhà Bè
38 Chi nhánh Cầu Giấy 116 Chi nhánh Phước Kiển
39 Chi nhánh Tam Trinh 117 Chi nhánh Quận Tân Bình
40 Chi nhánh Hà Tây 118 Chi nhánh Quận Bình Thạnh
41 Chi nhánh TX Sơn Tây 119 Chi nhánh Gia Định
42 Chi nhánh Mê Linh 120 Chi nhánh 10
43 Chi nhánh Từ Liêm 121 Chi nhánh Hùng Vương
135
44 Chi nhánh Gia Lâm 122 Chi nhánh Bình Chánh
45 Chi nhánh Đông Anh 123 Chi nhánh Tân Phú
46 Chi nhánh Sóc Sơn 124 Chi nhánh 11
47 Chi nhánh Thanh Trì K09- Khu vực Đông Nam Bộ
K04- Khu vực Đồng bằng Sông Hồng 125 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bình Dương
48 Chi nhánh Hải phòng 126 Chi nhánh KCN Sóng Thần
49 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hải Dương 127 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bình Phước
50 Chi nhánh Sao Đỏ 128 Chi nhánh tỉnh Tây Ninh
51 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hưng Yên 129 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đồng Nai
52 Chi nhánh Mỹ Hào 130 Chi nhánh Biên Hòa
53 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bắc Ninh 131 CN tỉnh Bà Rịa- Vũng Tàu
54 Chi nhánh TX. Từ Sơn – Bắc Ninh 132 Chi nhánh Vũng Tàu
55 Chi nhánh tỉnh Vĩnh Phúc K10- Khu vực Tây nam bộ
56 Chi nhánh Phúc Yên 133 Chi nhánh Cần Thơ
57 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hà Nam 134 Chi nhánh Ninh Kiều
58 Chi nhánh tỉnh Nam Định 135 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đồng Tháp
59 Chi nhánh Bắc Nam Định 136 Chi nhánh tỉnh Long An
60 Chi nhánh tỉnh Ninh Binh 137 Chi nhánh tỉnh An Giang
61 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thái Binh 138 Chi nhánh tỉnh Tiền Giang
K05-Khu vực Khu 4 cũ 139 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hậu Giang
62 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thanh Hóa 140 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bến Tre
63 Chi nhanh TX. Sầm Sơn 141 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bạc Liêu
64 Chi nhánh tỉnh Nghệ An 142 Chi nhánh tỉnh Vĩnh Long
65 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hà Tĩnh 143 Chi nhánh tỉnh Trà Vinh
66 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Bình 144 Chi nhánh tỉnh Ca Mau
67 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Tri 145 Chi nhánh tỉnh Sóc Trăng
68 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thừa Thiên- Huế 146 Chi nhánh tỉnh Kiên Giang
147 Chi nhánh Phú Quốc
K06- Khu vực Duyên hải miền Trung
69 Chi nhánh TP Đà nẵng 74 Chi nhánh tỉnh Phú Yên
70 Chi nhánh Hải Châu 75 Chi nhánh tỉnh Khánh Hòa
71 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Nam 76 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bình Thuận
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