[Tóm tắt] Luận án Xếp hạng tín dụng nội bộ theo phân khúc thị trường tại Ngân hàng Nông nghiệp và Phát triển nông thôn Việt Nam

Quản trị rủi ro tín dụng của các NHTM nói chung và của Agribank nói riêng là điều kiện sống còn để các ngân hàng tồn tại và phát triển. Quản trị rủi ro tín dụng cũng là nền tảng để các ngân hàng nâng cao năng lực cạnh tranh và phát triển nền kinh tế đất nước. XHTDNB là một trong những công cụ có vai trò đặc biệt quan trọng trong hoạt động quản trị rủi ro tín dụng tại nội bộ mỗi ngân hàng. Hoạt động XHTDNB được NHNN Việt Nam đặc biệt quan tâm chỉ đạo các NHTM triển khai xây dựng và áp dụng hệ thống XHTDNB với việc ban hành văn bản số 493/2005/QĐ-NHNN ngày 22/4/2005. Sau hơn 10 năm thực hiện đến nay, hoạt động XHTDNB tại các NHTM Việt Nam cũng như của Agribank còn rất mới mẻ, non trẻ. Do đó, hệ thống XHTDNB của Agribank không thể tránh khỏi những hạn chế nhất định trong quá trình xây dựng và áp dụng chấm điểm xếp hạng khách hàng có quan hệ tín dụng. Qua quá trình nghiên cứu thực tiễn hoạt động XHTDNB tại các NHTM Việt Nam và của Agribank, trên cơ sở lập luận, chứng minh, và sử dụng các mô hình phân tích đánh giá, tác giả đã lựa chọn đề tài: “Xếp hạng tín dụng nội bộ theo phân khúc thị trường tại Ngân hàng Nông nghiệp và Phát triển nông thôn Việt nam” là nội dung nghiên cứu Luận án Tiến sĩ của mình, nhằm góp phần hoàn thiện và nâng cao chất lượng XHTDNB tại Agribank – một NHTM nhà nước lớn nhất Việt Nam hiện nay.

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773 v14 -.657 .185 12.551 1 .000 .519 v15 -.259 .173 2.229 1 .135 .772 Constant .043 1.208 .001 1 .971 1.044 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v12, v13, v14, v15. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 31 .0 1 0 119 100.0 Overall Percentage 79.3 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.345 .202 44.499 1 .000 3.839 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 2.855 1 .091 v12 3.771 1 .052 v13 2.833 1 .092 v14 11.095 1 .001 v15 4.162 1 .041 Overall Statistics 27.110 5 .000 85 Hàm hồi quy V30 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 45.215 6 .000 Block 45.215 6 .000 Model 45.215 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 72.587a .260 .478 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V30_M H 0 10 10 50.0 1 3 127 97.7 Overall Percentage 91.3 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Nhomtuoi .858 .380 5.103 1 .024 2.359 v05.2 -1.087 .666 2.665 1 .093 .337 v06 .657 .282 5.411 1 .020 1.929 v15 .843 .328 6.607 1 .010 2.323 v20 .649 .435 2.227 1 .036 1.914 v21 .359 .487 .545 1 .060 1.433 Constant -6.537 2.106 9.633 1 .002 .001 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v05.2, v06, v15, v20, v21. 86 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V30_M H 0 0 20 .0 1 0 130 100.0 Overall Percentage 86.7 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.872 .240 60.730 1 .000 6.500 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 9.587 1 .002 v05.2 19.196 1 .000 v06 17.439 1 .000 v15 3.150 1 .076 v20 12.013 1 .001 v21 11.101 1 .001 Overall Statistics 37.300 6 .000 Vùng 4 Hàm hồi quy V24 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 89.387 5 .000 Block 89.387 5 .000 Model 89.387 5 .000 87 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 98.279a .393 .605 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V24_M H 0 28 11 71.8 1 6 134 95.7 Overall Percentage 90.5 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v04 1.213 .783 2.399 1 .021 3.363 v07 .710 .568 1.560 1 .012 2.034 v09 -1.619 .372 18.992 1 .000 .198 v11 .946 .321 8.675 1 .003 2.575 v21 -.513 .215 5.719 1 .017 .599 Constant 2.687 2.157 1.552 1 .213 14.689 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v04, v07, v09, v11, v21. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V24_M H 0 0 39 .0 1 0 140 100.0 Overall Percentage 78.2 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 88 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.278 .181 49.826 1 .000 3.590 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v04 8.138 1 .004 v07 6.577 1 .010 v09 61.652 1 .000 v11 37.686 1 .000 v21 18.896 1 .000 Overall Statistics 81.580 5 .000 Hàm hồi quy V25 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 55.360 5 .000 Block 55.360 5 .000 Model 55.360 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 24.337a .266 .420 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V25_M H 0 14 22 38.9 1 12 131 91.6 Overall Percentage 81.0 a. The cut value is .500 89 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Gioitinh 1.572 .505 9.712 1 .002 4.818 Nhomtuoi -.397 .219 3.291 1 .070 .672 v06 -.373 .180 4.271 1 .039 .689 v15.2 -1.925 .477 16.283 1 .000 .146 v19 -.490 .219 5.011 1 .025 .613 Constant 6.187 1.258 24.193 1 .000 486.201 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, Nhomtuoi, v06, v15.2, v19. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V25_M H 0 0 36 .0 1 0 143 100.0 Overall Percentage 79.9 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.379 .186 54.717 1 .000 3.972 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 7.417 1 .006 Nhomtuoi 11.427 1 .001 v06 19.872 1 .000 v15.2 24.155 1 .000 v19 6.572 1 .010 Overall Statistics 50.324 5 .000 90 Hàm hồi quy V26 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 83.494 6 .000 Block 83.494 6 .000 Model 83.494 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 87.607a .373 .606 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V26.HC 0 23 10 69.7 1 5 141 96.6 Overall Percentage 91.6 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a V24_MH 4.155 .804 26.696 1 .000 63.727 V25_MH 2.641 .705 14.042 1 .000 14.027 V27_MH .467 .734 .405 1 .525 1.595 V28_MH 3.421 .761 20.184 1 .000 30.601 v29_MH 3.206 .715 20.110 1 .000 24.674 V30_MH 1.540 .716 4.621 1 .032 4.665 Constant -9.432 1.940 23.648 1 .000 .000 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH, v29_MH, V30_MH. 91 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 33 .0 1 0 146 100.0 Overall Percentage 81.6 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.487 .193 59.524 1 .000 4.424 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables V24_MH 30.409 1 .000 V25_MH 4.402 1 .036 V27_MH .248 1 .619 V28_MH 11.676 1 .001 v29_MH 18.410 1 .000 V30_MH .430 1 .512 Overall Statistics 73.340 6 .000 Hàm hồi quy V26 lần 2 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 83.091 5 .000 Block 83.091 5 .000 Model 83.091 5 .000 92 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 88.011a .371 .603 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V26.HC 0 23 10 69.7 1 5 141 96.6 Overall Percentage 91.6 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a V24_MH 4.048 .772 27.466 1 .000 57.265 V25_MH 2.572 .688 13.961 1 .000 13.094 V28_MH 3.465 .761 20.703 1 .000 31.972 v29_MH 3.191 .708 20.325 1 .000 24.317 V30_MH 1.458 .697 4.374 1 .036 4.296 Constant -8.909 1.697 27.546 1 .000 .000 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V28_MH, v29_MH, V30_MH. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 33 .0 1 0 146 100.0 Overall Percentage 81.6 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 93 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.487 .193 59.524 1 .000 4.424 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables V24_MH 30.409 1 .000 V25_MH 4.402 1 .036 V28_MH 11.676 1 .001 v29_MH 18.410 1 .000 V30_MH .430 1 .512 Overall Statistics 73.172 5 .000 Hàm hồi quy V27 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 91.094 10 .000 Block 91.094 10 .000 Model 91.094 10 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 48.558a .399 .593 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V27_M H 0 27 17 61.4 1 13 122 90.4 Overall Percentage 83.2 a. The cut value is .500 94 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Gioitinh -1.538 .572 7.234 1 .007 .215 v04 -2.028 .796 6.486 1 .011 .132 v05.1 3.704 .759 23.791 1 .000 40.610 v07 -.782 .456 2.947 1 .086 .457 v11 -.647 .293 4.875 1 .027 .523 v12 1.587 .484 10.754 1 .001 4.888 v14 1.003 .266 14.255 1 .000 2.727 v17 -.543 .251 4.665 1 .031 .581 v18 .964 .348 7.648 1 .006 2.621 v23 1.362 .335 16.560 1 .000 3.905 Constant -5.163 2.768 3.480 1 .062 .006 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, v04, v05.1, v07, v11, v12, v14, v17, v18, v23. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V27_M H 0 0 44 .0 1 0 135 100.0 Overall Percentage 75.4 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.121 .174 41.707 1 .000 3.068 95 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 3.824 1 .051 v04 1.043 1 .037 v05.1 19.356 1 .000 v07 1.503 1 .020 v11 4.471 1 .034 v12 7.615 1 .006 v14 18.356 1 .000 v17 .282 1 .096 v18 3.717 1 .054 v23 8.051 1 .005 Overall Statistics 72.948 10 .000 Hàm hồi quy V28 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 18.045 4 .001 Block 18.045 4 .001 Model 18.045 4 .001 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 64.376a .096 .150 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V28_M H 0 5 32 13.5 1 1 141 99.3 Overall Percentage 81.6 a. The cut value is .500 96 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a TTNT .935 .430 4.731 1 .030 2.547 v05.1 .921 .422 4.764 1 .029 2.511 v14 .409 .146 7.869 1 .005 1.505 v19 -.343 .182 3.553 1 .059 .709 Constant .777 .851 .835 1 .361 2.175 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: TTNT, v05.1, v14, v19. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V28_M H 0 0 37 .0 1 0 142 100.0 Overall Percentage 79.3 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.345 .185 53.091 1 .000 3.838 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables TTNT 1.027 1 .311 v05.1 5.539 1 .019 v14 5.138 1 .023 v19 1.593 1 .207 Overall Statistics 17.414 4 .002 Hàm hồi quy V29 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 20.444 6 .002 Block 20.444 6 .002 Model 20.444 6 .002 97 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 53.595a .108 .174 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 v29_MH 0 5 29 14.7 1 3 142 97.9 Overall Percentage 82.1 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Nhomtuoi -.274 .256 1.145 1 .085 .760 v07 -.595 .424 1.971 1 .060 .551 v08 .985 .503 3.830 1 .050 2.679 v12 .780 .316 6.076 1 .014 2.181 v16 .269 .227 1.398 1 .037 1.308 v18 .516 .293 3.099 1 .078 1.676 Constant .914 1.928 .225 1 .635 2.495 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v07, v08, v12, v16, v18. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 34 .0 1 0 145 100.0 Overall Percentage 81.0 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 98 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.450 .191 57.937 1 .000 4.265 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 3.179 1 .075 v07 3.029 1 .082 v08 6.841 1 .009 v12 3.122 1 .077 v16 6.622 1 .010 v18 3.070 1 .080 Overall Statistics 19.193 6 .004 Hàm hồi quy V30 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 27.045 5 .000 Block 27.045 5 .000 Model 27.045 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 52.652a .140 .221 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V30_M H 0 7 29 19.4 1 5 138 96.5 Overall Percentage 81.0 a. The cut value is .500 99 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Nhomtuoi -.320 .194 2.723 1 .099 .726 TTNT 1.155 .464 6.199 1 .013 3.173 v06 -.159 .179 .782 1 .077 .853 v11 -.217 .235 .850 1 .057 .805 v15 .248 .178 1.937 1 .064 1.281 Constant 1.873 .985 3.620 1 .057 6.510 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, TTNT, v06, v11, v15. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V30_M H 0 0 36 .0 1 0 143 100.0 Overall Percentage 79.9 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.379 .186 54.717 1 .000 3.972 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 9.396 1 .002 TTNT 14.677 1 .000 v06 14.513 1 .000 v11 7.633 1 .006 v15 3.743 1 .053 Overall Statistics 26.393 5 .000 100 VÙNG 5 Hàm hồi quy V24 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 33.119 5 .000 Block 33.119 5 .000 Model 33.119 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 36.275a .228 .344 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V24_M H 0 13 17 43.3 1 9 89 90.8 Overall Percentage 79.7 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v08 2.176 .642 11.474 1 .001 8.809 v14 -.192 .237 .658 1 .017 .825 v18.1 -1.633 .564 8.369 1 .004 .195 v20 -.599 .247 5.877 1 .015 .549 v23 .596 .247 5.845 1 .016 1.815 Constant .352 1.068 .108 1 .042 1.421 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v08, v14, v18.1, v20, v23. 101 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V24_M H 0 0 30 .0 1 0 98 100.0 Overall Percentage 76.6 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.184 .209 32.186 1 .000 3.267 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v08 16.567 1 .000 v14 .664 1 .015 v18.1 10.923 1 .001 v20 4.217 1 .040 v23 1.066 1 .002 Overall Statistics 33.285 5 .000 Hàm hồi quy V25 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 56.854 6 .000 Block 56.854 6 .000 Model 56.854 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 77.628a .359 .552 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. 102 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V25_M H 0 16 12 57.1 1 3 97 97.0 Overall Percentage 88.3 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v07 -1.707 .760 5.039 1 .025 .181 v09 -1.747 .736 5.632 1 .018 .174 v11 .911 .354 6.612 1 .010 2.488 v15 -.806 .257 9.880 1 .002 .446 v16 1.030 .338 9.280 1 .002 2.800 v23 -.532 .262 4.117 1 .042 .587 Constant 9.204 3.604 6.522 1 .011 9934.413 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v07, v09, v11, v15, v16, v23. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V25_M H 0 0 28 .0 1 0 100 100.0 Overall Percentage 78.1 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.273 .214 35.447 1 .000 3.571 103 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v07 10.159 1 .001 v09 20.121 1 .000 v11 6.981 1 .008 v15 9.871 1 .002 v16 19.996 1 .000 v23 1.407 1 .036 Overall Statistics 47.996 6 .000 Hàm hồi quy V26 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 73.447 6 .000 Block 73.447 6 .000 Model 73.447 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 70.510a .437 .647 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V26.HC 0 22 10 68.8 1 5 91 94.8 Overall Percentage 88.3 a. The cut value is .500 104 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a V24_MH 4.284 .894 22.981 1 .000 72.495 V25_MH 2.563 .815 9.888 1 .002 12.975 V27_MH 1.003 .675 2.205 1 .038 2.727 V28_MH 3.147 .906 12.071 1 .001 23.269 v29_MH 1.623 .747 4.723 1 .030 5.071 V30_MH 2.720 .782 12.091 1 .001 15.182 Constant -9.410 2.087 20.329 1 .000 .000 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH, v29_MH, V30_MH. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 32 .0 1 0 96 100.0 Overall Percentage 75.0 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.099 .204 28.967 1 .000 3.000 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables V24_MH 36.281 1 .000 V25_MH 6.095 1 .014 V27_MH .667 1 .414 V28_MH 2.844 1 .092 v29_MH 1.798 1 .180 V30_MH 18.205 1 .000 Overall Statistics 61.251 6 .000 105 Hàm hồi quy V27 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 46.431 8 .000 Block 46.431 8 .000 Model 46.431 8 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 99.683a .304 .447 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V27_M H 0 19 14 57.6 1 9 86 90.5 Overall Percentage 82.0 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Nhomtuoi .584 .321 3.314 1 .069 1.792 v05 .515 .272 3.587 1 .058 1.673 v06 -.880 .311 7.998 1 .005 .415 v10 -1.209 .570 4.495 1 .034 .299 v13 -1.810 .455 15.805 1 .000 .164 v16 -.712 .387 3.394 1 .065 .491 v17 .489 .226 4.695 1 .030 1.631 v18 -.488 .302 2.609 1 .096 .614 Constant 9.383 2.594 13.084 1 .000 11888.462 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v05, v06, v10, v13, v16, v17, v18. 106 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V27_M H 0 0 33 .0 1 0 95 100.0 Overall Percentage 74.2 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.057 .202 27.383 1 .000 2.879 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 1.118 1 .090 v05 2.632 1 .005 v06 2.929 1 .087 v10 .903 1 .042 v13 23.964 1 .000 v16 1.481 1 .024 v17 .190 1 .063 v18 1.133 1 .087 Overall Statistics 36.944 8 .000 Hàm hồi quy V28 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 71.382 6 .000 Block 71.382 6 .000 Model 71.382 6 .000 107 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 68.012a .427 .644 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 20 because maximum iterations has been reached. Final solution cannot be found. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V28_M H 0 23 7 76.7 1 7 91 92.9 Overall Percentage 89.1 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Gioitinh .208 .664 .098 1 .054 1.231 v09 1.615 6749.389 .000 1 .098 1.215E8 v15.1 -2.111 1.096 3.711 1 .054 .121 v18 .138 .368 .140 1 .008 1.148 v19 .999 .208 23.113 1 .000 2.717 v21 1.255 .422 8.847 1 .003 3.508 Constant -2.642 6749.389 .000 1 .097 .000 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, v09, v15.1, v18, v19, v21. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V28_M H 0 0 30 .0 1 0 98 100.0 Overall Percentage 76.6 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 108 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.184 .209 32.186 1 .000 3.267 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 2.975 1 .085 v09 3.922 1 .048 v15.1 3.438 1 .064 v18 6.823 1 .009 v19 46.691 1 .000 v21 8.360 1 .004 Overall Statistics 58.089 6 .000 Hàm hồi quy V29 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 61.633 5 .000 Block 61.633 5 .000 Model 61.633 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 75.350a .382 .582 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 v29_MH 0 21 8 72.4 1 8 91 91.9 Overall Percentage 87.5 a. The cut value is .500 109 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v06 -1.000 .593 2.845 1 .092 .368 v07 1.257 .376 11.210 1 .001 3.516 v10 -.677 .631 1.151 1 .083 .508 v15 .982 .261 14.207 1 .000 2.670 v14 .163 .313 .272 1 .002 1.177 Constant .361 3.558 .010 1 .119 1.435 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v07, v10, v15, v14. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 29 .0 1 0 99 100.0 Overall Percentage 77.3 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.228 .211 33.814 1 .000 3.414 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v06 17.920 1 .000 v07 35.946 1 .000 v10 5.017 1 .025 v15 22.427 1 .000 v14 6.775 1 .009 Overall Statistics 54.935 5 .000 110 Hàm hồi quy V30 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 25.717 4 .000 Block 25.717 4 .000 Model 25.717 4 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 21.266a .182 .277 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V30_M H 0 7 22 24.1 1 8 91 91.9 Overall Percentage 76.6 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v06 .551 .213 6.698 1 .010 1.734 v07 -.515 .456 1.273 1 .059 .598 v20 .371 .251 2.174 1 .040 1.449 v23 .312 .228 1.877 1 .071 1.366 Constant -.767 2.217 .120 1 .229 .464 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v07, v20, v23. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V30_M H 0 0 29 .0 1 0 99 100.0 Overall Percentage 77.3 111 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v06 .551 .213 6.698 1 .010 1.734 v07 -.515 .456 1.273 1 .059 .598 v20 .371 .251 2.174 1 .040 1.449 v23 .312 .228 1.877 1 .071 1.366 Constant -.767 2.217 .120 1 .229 .464 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.228 .211 33.814 1 .000 3.414 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v06 16.789 1 .000 v07 6.278 1 .012 v20 7.807 1 .005 v23 7.989 1 .005 Overall Statistics 23.697 4 .000 VÙNG 6 Hàm hồi quy V24 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 49.959 6 .000 Block 49.959 6 .000 Model 49.959 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 42.393a .226 .360 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. 112 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V24_M H 0 17 21 44.7 1 4 153 97.5 Overall Percentage 87.2 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Gioitinh -.943 .453 4.325 1 .038 .390 Nhomtuoi .478 .219 4.781 1 .029 1.614 v12 .651 .350 3.463 1 .063 1.918 v15 -.297 .168 3.119 1 .077 .743 v16 .772 .206 14.018 1 .000 2.164 v21 -.428 .179 5.705 1 .017 .652 Constant -.917 1.327 .477 1 .490 .400 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, Nhomtuoi, v12, v15, v16, v21. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V24_M H 0 0 38 .0 1 0 157 100.0 Overall Percentage 80.5 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.419 .181 61.575 1 .000 4.132 113 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 4.034 1 .045 Nhomtuoi 7.976 1 .005 v12 3.822 1 .051 v15 2.981 1 .084 v16 29.054 1 .000 v21 15.614 1 .000 Overall Statistics 47.161 6 .000 Hàm hồi quy V25 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 73.819 7 .000 Block 73.819 7 .000 Model 73.819 7 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 115.662a .315 .507 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V25_M H 0 20 17 54.1 1 4 154 97.5 Overall Percentage 89.2 a. The cut value is .500 114 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v05 -.859 .209 16.921 1 .000 .424 v06 1.043 .265 15.455 1 .000 2.837 v10 -1.047 .427 6.025 1 .014 .351 v11 .602 .323 3.469 1 .063 1.825 v13 .975 .467 4.361 1 .037 2.650 v21 -.503 .204 6.070 1 .014 .605 v22 -.734 .387 3.607 1 .058 .480 Constant 3.848 1.404 7.511 1 .006 46.914 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v05, v06, v10, v11, v13, v21, v22. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V25_M H 0 0 37 .0 1 0 158 100.0 Overall Percentage 81.0 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.452 .183 63.178 1 .000 4.270 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v05 20.232 1 .000 v06 13.520 1 .000 v10 4.629 1 .031 v11 9.258 1 .002 v13 9.313 1 .002 v21 7.733 1 .005 v22 14.560 1 .000 Overall Statistics 61.416 7 .000 115 Hàm hồi quy V26 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 94.858 6 .000 Block 94.858 6 .000 Model 94.858 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 115.822a .385 .583 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V26.HC 0 31 14 68.9 1 7 143 95.3 Overall Percentage 89.2 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a V24_MH .274 .551 .247 1 .019 1.315 V25_MH 2.647 .662 15.975 1 .000 14.114 V27_MH 2.882 .626 21.204 1 .000 17.855 V28_MH 1.278 .547 5.464 1 .019 3.589 v29_MH 3.279 .601 29.767 1 .000 26.546 V30_MH 1.890 .539 12.315 1 .000 6.619 Constant -7.505 1.307 32.989 1 .000 .001 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH, v29_MH, V30_MH. 116 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 45 .0 1 0 150 100.0 Overall Percentage 76.9 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.204 .170 50.177 1 .000 3.333 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables V24_MH 5.038 1 .025 V25_MH 24.685 1 .000 V27_MH 13.454 1 .000 V28_MH 13.564 1 .000 v29_MH 31.698 1 .000 V30_MH 7.122 1 .008 Overall Statistics 84.088 6 .000 Hàm hồi quy V27 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 27.502 5 .000 Block 27.502 5 .000 Model 27.502 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 61.979a .132 .212 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. 117 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V27_M H 0 7 30 18.9 1 4 154 97.5 Overall Percentage 82.6 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Gioitinh 1.004 .415 5.868 1 .015 2.730 Nhomtuoi -.625 .196 10.200 1 .001 .535 v04 -.439 .420 1.092 1 .096 .644 v16 .533 .190 7.822 1 .005 1.703 v17 -.259 .147 3.109 1 .078 .772 Constant 2.431 .889 7.479 1 .006 11.367 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, Nhomtuoi, v04, v16, v17. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V27_M H 0 0 37 .0 1 0 158 100.0 Overall Percentage 81.0 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.452 .183 63.178 1 .000 4.270 118 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 3.253 1 .071 Nhomtuoi 7.910 1 .005 v04 4.691 1 .030 v16 5.408 1 .020 v17 5.582 1 .018 Overall Statistics 26.920 5 .000 Hàm hồi quy V28 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 81.451 5 .000 Block 81.451 5 .000 Model 81.451 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 40.564a .341 .502 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V28_M H 0 35 15 70.0 1 9 136 93.8 Overall Percentage 87.7 a. The cut value is .500 119 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Gioitinh -1.749 .476 13.494 1 .000 .174 TTNT -1.205 .529 5.193 1 .023 .300 v05 -.945 .204 21.455 1 .000 .389 v06 .688 .209 10.796 1 .001 1.990 v10 .595 .329 3.265 1 .071 1.813 Constant 1.750 .998 3.075 1 .079 5.755 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, TTNT, v05, v06, v10. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V28_M H 0 0 50 .0 1 0 145 100.0 Overall Percentage 74.4 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.065 .164 42.147 1 .000 2.900 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 18.507 1 .000 TTNT 11.894 1 .001 v05 29.349 1 .000 v06 24.845 1 .000 v10 8.195 1 .004 Overall Statistics 67.598 5 .000 120 Hàm hồi quy V29 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 62.901 6 .000 Block 62.901 6 .000 Model 62.901 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 45.342a .276 .420 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 v29_MH 0 21 23 47.7 1 8 143 94.7 Overall Percentage 84.1 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v05 -.703 .205 11.721 1 .001 .495 v09 -.768 .262 8.605 1 .003 .464 v10 -.993 .344 8.323 1 .004 .370 v11 -.513 .235 4.759 1 .029 .599 v15 .859 .225 14.594 1 .000 2.362 v16 .403 .225 3.214 1 .073 1.496 Constant 3.675 1.285 8.177 1 .004 39.465 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v05, v09, v10, v11, v15, v16. 121 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 44 .0 1 0 151 100.0 Overall Percentage 77.4 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.233 .171 51.807 1 .000 3.432 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v05 10.949 1 .001 v09 19.774 1 .000 v10 4.451 1 .035 v11 5.340 1 .021 v15 12.330 1 .000 v16 10.425 1 .001 Overall Statistics 57.772 6 .000 Hàm hồi quy V30 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 64.417a .211 .320 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V30_M H 0 18 27 40.0 1 9 141 94.0 Overall Percentage 81.5 a. The cut value is .500 122 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v09 -.519 .248 4.401 1 .036 .595 v12 .750 .323 5.378 1 .020 2.117 v15 .284 .175 2.639 1 .004 1.328 v16 .097 .198 .240 1 .024 1.102 v20 -.253 .247 1.045 1 .007 .777 v21 -.637 .288 4.891 1 .027 .529 v23 .332 .263 1.586 1 .008 1.393 Constant 1.002 1.102 .828 1 .363 2.725 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v09, v12, v15, v16, v20, v21, v23. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V30_M H 0 0 45 .0 1 0 150 100.0 Overall Percentage 76.9 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.204 .170 50.177 1 .000 3.333 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v09 10.338 1 .001 v12 6.505 1 .011 v15 8.186 1 .004 v16 7.463 1 .006 v20 20.358 1 .000 v21 29.630 1 .000 v23 4.099 1 .043 Overall Statistics 45.308 7 .000 123 VÙNG 7 Hàm hồi quy V24 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 33.082 5 .000 Block 33.082 5 .000 Model 33.082 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 101.308a .260 .368 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V24_M H 0 15 18 45.5 1 5 72 93.5 Overall Percentage 79.1 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v08 1.142 .679 2.829 1 .093 3.133 v11 -.485 .246 3.870 1 .049 .616 v15 -.729 .244 8.955 1 .003 .482 v17 -.536 .217 6.105 1 .013 .585 v21 -.227 .336 .456 1 .050 .797 Constant 5.032 1.490 11.408 1 .001 5.225 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v08, v11, v15, v17, v21. 124 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V24_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V24_M H 0 0 33 .0 1 0 77 100.0 Overall Percentage 70.0 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant .847 .208 16.584 1 .000 2.333 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v08 7.955 1 .005 v11 3.605 1 .058 v15 11.196 1 .001 v17 12.697 1 .000 v21 8.856 1 .003 Overall Statistics 31.002 5 .000 Hàm hồi quy V25 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 36.742 4 .000 Block 36.742 4 .000 Model 36.742 4 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 98.358a .282 .400 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. 125 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V25_M H 0 20 13 60.6 1 9 69 88.5 Overall Percentage 80.2 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v06 -.573 .226 6.414 1 .011 .564 v10 -1.159 .415 7.811 1 .005 .314 v11 -.683 .258 7.006 1 .008 .505 v12 -.594 .292 4.126 1 .042 .552 Constant 8.727 1.785 23.896 1 .000 6.971 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v10, v11, v12. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V25_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V25_M H 0 0 33 .0 1 0 78 100.0 Overall Percentage 70.3 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant .860 .208 17.159 1 .000 2.364 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v06 14.342 1 .000 v10 9.286 1 .002 v11 10.052 1 .002 v12 9.148 1 .002 Overall Statistics 29.556 4 .000 126 Hàm hồi quy V26 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 46.378 6 .000 Block 46.378 6 .000 Model 46.378 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 74.466a .342 .515 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V26.HC 0 17 9 65.4 1 2 83 97.6 Overall Percentage 90.1 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a V24_MH 1.399 .625 5.001 1 .025 4.050 V25_MH 1.180 .619 3.628 1 .057 3.253 V27_MH 2.388 .660 13.093 1 .000 10.893 V28_MH 2.017 .669 9.084 1 .003 7.512 v29_MH 2.078 .668 9.669 1 .002 7.985 V30_MH 1.272 .677 3.534 1 .060 3.569 Constant -5.274 1.257 17.615 1 .000 .005 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: V24_MH, V25_MH, V27_MH, V28_MH, v29_MH, V30_MH. 127 Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V26.HC Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V26.HC 0 0 26 .0 1 0 85 100.0 Overall Percentage 76.6 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant 1.185 .224 27.937 1 .000 3.269 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables V24_MH 6.678 1 .010 V25_MH 6.678 1 .010 V27_MH 12.382 1 .000 V28_MH 7.831 1 .005 v29_MH 8.299 1 .004 V30_MH .388 1 .533 Overall Statistics 41.874 6 .000 Hàm hồi quy V27 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 24.918 5 .000 Block 24.918 5 .000 Model 24.918 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 104.625a .201 .292 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. 128 Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V27_M H 0 11 19 36.7 1 4 77 95.1 Overall Percentage 79.3 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Nhomtuoi -.546 .275 3.934 1 .047 .579 v11 -.397 .250 2.514 1 .013 .673 v16 .707 .260 7.373 1 .007 2.028 v20 .805 .480 2.809 1 .094 2.236 v21 -1.399 .514 7.405 1 .007 .247 Constant 2.686 1.397 3.699 1 .054 14.675 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Nhomtuoi, v11, v16, v20, v21. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V27_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V27_M H 0 0 30 .0 1 0 81 100.0 Overall Percentage 73.0 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant .993 .214 21.597 1 .000 2.700 129 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Nhomtuoi 3.219 1 .073 v11 4.070 1 .044 v16 7.703 1 .006 v20 4.908 1 .027 v21 9.840 1 .002 Overall Statistics 23.113 5 .000 Hàm hồi quy V28 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 44.849 6 .000 Block 44.849 6 .000 Model 44.849 6 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 52.759a .335 .469 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V28_M H 0 23 12 65.7 1 8 67 89.3 Overall Percentage 81.8 a. The cut value is .500 130 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v06 -.992 .285 12.146 1 .000 .371 v08 -1.907 .952 4.019 1 .045 .148 v11 .592 .256 5.344 1 .021 1.807 v14 -.476 .308 2.390 1 .022 .622 v15 .393 .235 2.811 1 .094 1.482 v16 -.344 .373 .851 1 .056 .709 Constant 6.625 2.111 9.848 1 .002 7.859 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v06, v08, v11, v14, v15, v16. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V28_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V28_M H 0 0 35 .0 1 0 75 100.0 Overall Percentage 68.2 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant .762 .205 13.861 1 .000 2.143 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v06 22.302 1 .000 v08 3.727 1 .054 v11 2.797 1 .094 v14 13.709 1 .000 v15 2.999 1 .083 v16 3.720 1 .054 Overall Statistics 36.948 6 .000 131 Hàm hồi quy V29 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 22.576 5 .000 Block 22.576 5 .000 Model 22.576 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 37.915a .186 .257 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 v29_MH 0 16 21 43.2 1 12 61 83.6 Overall Percentage 70.0 a. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a v08 .904 .608 2.212 1 .037 2.469 v15 .504 .225 5.019 1 .025 1.655 v17 -.130 .211 .382 1 .037 .878 v20 -.447 .309 2.092 1 .048 .640 v22 -.755 .369 4.185 1 .041 .470 Constant 2.322 1.362 2.905 1 .088 10.197 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: v08, v15, v17, v20, v22. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted v29_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 v29_MH 0 0 37 .0 1 0 73 100.0 Overall Percentage 66.4 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 132 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant .680 .202 11.339 1 .001 1.973 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables v08 3.357 1 .067 v15 3.017 1 .082 v17 6.677 1 .010 v20 11.181 1 .001 v22 8.884 1 .003 Overall Statistics 19.451 5 .002 Hàm hồi quy V30 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 39.819 5 .000 Block 39.819 5 .000 Model 39.819 5 .000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 34.572a .304 .431 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 1 V30_M H 0 17 16 51.5 1 8 69 89.6 Overall Percentage 78.2 a. The cut value is .500 133 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a Gioitinh -.951 .558 2.909 1 .088 .386 v05 .611 .315 3.755 1 .053 1.842 v07 -1.932 1.166 2.747 1 .097 .145 v15 -1.092 .325 11.272 1 .001 .336 v20 .713 .285 6.282 1 .012 2.041 Constant 9.096 4.807 3.581 1 .058 8.422 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Gioitinh, v05, v07, v15, v20. Classification Tablea,b Observed Predicted V30_MH Percentage Correct 0 1 Step 0 V30_M H 0 0 33 .0 1 0 77 100.0 Overall Percentage 70.0 a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 0 Constant .847 .208 16.584 1 .000 2.333 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables Gioitinh 4.365 1 .037 v05 4.077 1 .043 v07 6.846 1 .009 v15 8.821 1 .003 v20 12.767 1 .000 Overall Statistics 30.824 5 .000 134 Phụ lục số 23: Phân vùng quản lý tín dụng tại Agribank hiện nay STT Khu vực STT Khu vực K01- Khu vực miền núi cao - Biên giới K07- Khu vực Tây Nguyên 1 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lai Châu 78 Chi nhánh tỉnh Gia Lai 2 Chi nhánh tỉnh Sơn La 79 Chi nhánh tỉnh Kon Tum 3 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hà Giang 80 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đăk Lăk 4 Chi nhánh tỉnh Cao Bằng 81 Chi nhánh Buôn Hô 5 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lạng Son 82 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đăk Nông 6 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bắc Cạn 83 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lâm Đồng 7 Chi nhánh tỉnh Lào Cai 84 Chi nhánh Dâu tằm Tơ 8 Chi nhánh tỉnh Điện Biên K08- Khu vực TP. Hồ Chí Minh K02- Khu vực Trung du Bắc Bộ 85 Chi nhánh Sài Gòn 9 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bắc Giang 86 Chi nhánh Quận 1 10 Chi nhánh tỉnh Phú Thọ 87 Chi nhánh 3 11 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hòa Binh 88 Chi nhánh Lý thường Kiệt 12 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Ninh 89 Chi nhánh Phú Nhuận 13 Chi nhánh TP Móng Cái – Quảng Ninh 90 Chi nhánh An Phú 14 Chi nhánh tỉnh Tuyên Quang 91 Chi nhánh Phan Đinh Phùng 15 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thái Nguyên 92 Chi nhánh Trường Sơn 16 Chi nhánh tỉnh Yên Bái 93 Chi nhánh TP. Hồ Chí Minh K03- Khu vực Hà Nội 94 Chi nhánh 8 17 Sở Giao dịch 95 Chi nhánh Mạc Thị Bưởi 18 Chi nhánh Long Biên 96 Chi nhánh 4 19 Chi nhánh Hoàng Mai 97 Chi nhánh KCN Tân Tạo 20 Chi nhánh Thăng Long 98 Chi nhánh Miền Đông 21 Chi nhánh Trung Yên 99 Chi nhánh Hiệp Phước 22 Chi nhánh Hà Thành 100 Chi nhánh Thủ Đức 23 Chi nhánh Tràng An 101 Chi nhánh Củ Chi - TPHCM 24 Chi nhánh Láng Hạ 102 Chi nhánh An Sương 25 Chi nhánh Bách Khoa 103 Chi nhánh Hóc Môn 26 Chi nhánh Mỹ Đình 104 Chi nhánh Xuyên Á 27 Chi nhánh Đông Hà Nội 105 Chi nhánh Nam Sài Gòn 28 Chi nhánh Bắc Hà Nội 106 Chi nhánh Cần Giờ 29 Chi nhánh Hoàng Quốc Việt 107 Chi nhánh Bình Tân 30 Chi nhánh Nam Hà Nội 108 Chi nhánh Chợ Lớn 31 Chi nhánh Tây Đô 109 Chi nhánh Quận 5 32 Chi nhánh Tây Hà Nội 110 Chi nhánh Thành Đô 33 Chi nhánh Thủ Đô 111 Chi nhánh Đông Sài Gòn 34 Chi nhánh TP. Hà Nội 112 Chi nhánh 9 TPHCM 35 Chi nhánh Hoàn Kiếm 113 Chi nhánh Tây Sài Gòn 36 Chi nhánh Đống Đa 114 Chi nhánh Bắc Sài Gòn 37 Chi nhánh Tây Hồ 115 Chi nhánh Nhà Bè 38 Chi nhánh Cầu Giấy 116 Chi nhánh Phước Kiển 39 Chi nhánh Tam Trinh 117 Chi nhánh Quận Tân Bình 40 Chi nhánh Hà Tây 118 Chi nhánh Quận Bình Thạnh 41 Chi nhánh TX Sơn Tây 119 Chi nhánh Gia Định 42 Chi nhánh Mê Linh 120 Chi nhánh 10 43 Chi nhánh Từ Liêm 121 Chi nhánh Hùng Vương 135 44 Chi nhánh Gia Lâm 122 Chi nhánh Bình Chánh 45 Chi nhánh Đông Anh 123 Chi nhánh Tân Phú 46 Chi nhánh Sóc Sơn 124 Chi nhánh 11 47 Chi nhánh Thanh Trì K09- Khu vực Đông Nam Bộ K04- Khu vực Đồng bằng Sông Hồng 125 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bình Dương 48 Chi nhánh Hải phòng 126 Chi nhánh KCN Sóng Thần 49 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hải Dương 127 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bình Phước 50 Chi nhánh Sao Đỏ 128 Chi nhánh tỉnh Tây Ninh 51 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hưng Yên 129 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đồng Nai 52 Chi nhánh Mỹ Hào 130 Chi nhánh Biên Hòa 53 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bắc Ninh 131 CN tỉnh Bà Rịa- Vũng Tàu 54 Chi nhánh TX. Từ Sơn – Bắc Ninh 132 Chi nhánh Vũng Tàu 55 Chi nhánh tỉnh Vĩnh Phúc K10- Khu vực Tây nam bộ 56 Chi nhánh Phúc Yên 133 Chi nhánh Cần Thơ 57 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hà Nam 134 Chi nhánh Ninh Kiều 58 Chi nhánh tỉnh Nam Định 135 Chi nhánh tỉnh Đồng Tháp 59 Chi nhánh Bắc Nam Định 136 Chi nhánh tỉnh Long An 60 Chi nhánh tỉnh Ninh Binh 137 Chi nhánh tỉnh An Giang 61 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thái Binh 138 Chi nhánh tỉnh Tiền Giang K05-Khu vực Khu 4 cũ 139 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hậu Giang 62 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thanh Hóa 140 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bến Tre 63 Chi nhanh TX. Sầm Sơn 141 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bạc Liêu 64 Chi nhánh tỉnh Nghệ An 142 Chi nhánh tỉnh Vĩnh Long 65 Chi nhánh tỉnh Hà Tĩnh 143 Chi nhánh tỉnh Trà Vinh 66 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Bình 144 Chi nhánh tỉnh Ca Mau 67 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Tri 145 Chi nhánh tỉnh Sóc Trăng 68 Chi nhánh tỉnh Thừa Thiên- Huế 146 Chi nhánh tỉnh Kiên Giang 147 Chi nhánh Phú Quốc K06- Khu vực Duyên hải miền Trung 69 Chi nhánh TP Đà nẵng 74 Chi nhánh tỉnh Phú Yên 70 Chi nhánh Hải Châu 75 Chi nhánh tỉnh Khánh Hòa 71 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Nam 76 Chi nhánh tỉnh Bình Thuận 72 Chi nhánh tỉnh Binh Định 77 Chi nhánh tỉnh Ninh Thuận 73 Chi nhánh tỉnh Quảng Ngãi Nguồn: Trích Báo cáo tín dụng hàng năm của Agribank

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