Luận án Nghiên cứu nâng cao chất lượng dự báo mưa, lũ phục vụ vận hành các hồ chứa trên lưu vực Sông Ba

1 0.2 0 0 1.8 2 1 3 3.3 1.3 1.7 2.2 11 0.5 0 12/3/2014 6:00 0 0.7 0 0 0.4 1 0 0.5 0.6 0 1.3 1.7 0 0.6 0 12/3/2014 12:00 0 0.2 0 0 0.4 1 0 0.5 0.6 0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0 12/3/2014 18:00 0 0.2 0 0 0.3 0 0 0.3 0.3 0 0.2 0.3 0 0.7 0 12/4/2014 0:00 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.2 0 0.2 0.3 0 0.1 0 12/4/2014 6:00 0 0.2 0 0 0.4 1 0 0.8 0.9 0 0.5 0.7 0 0.9 0 12/4/2014 12:00 0 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.3 0.3 0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0 12/4/2014 18:00 0 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0 0.3 0.3 0 0.7 0.9 0 0.4 0 12/5/2014 0:00 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0.6 0.8 0 0.1 0 12/5/2014 6:00 0 0.1 0 0 0.3 0 0 0.9 1.0 6 0.8 1.0 0 0.2 0 12/5/2014 12:00 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1.6 1.8 0 1.3 1.7 0 0.1 0 12/5/2014 18:00 0 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0.4 0.5 0 0.3 0 12/6/2014 0:00 0 0.2 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.3 0.3 9 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 0 147 Bảng 1.3b. Thực đo và tính toán của mô hình IFS và WRF trận mưa từ ngày 27/11-6/12/2014 Thời gian CungSon TuyHoa Phu Lam Kon Tum Buon Ho TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF 11/27/2014 6:00 0.5 0 0.3 0 0.6 0.1 0 0.7 0.1 0 0.9 1.9 0 0.5 0.9 11/27/2014 12:00 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.3 0 0 0.3 0 0.6 1.6 0 0.1 0.5 11/27/2014 18:00 0.3 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0 0.7 0.2 0 0.3 1.3 0 0 0.4 11/28/2014 0:00 0.6 0 0.3 0 0.6 0.3 0 0.9 0.3 0 0.3 1.3 0 0.1 0.5 11/28/2014 6:00 1.2 0 0.1 0 1.1 0.3 0 1.1 0.3 0 0.9 1.9 0 0.4 0.8 11/28/2014 12:00 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0 0.3 1.3 0 0.1 0.5 11/28/2014 18:00 0.6 0 0.0 0 0.6 0.1 0 1.3 0.1 0 0.1 1.1 0 0 0.4 11/29/2014 0:00 1 0 0.0 0 0.8 0.2 0 5.1 0.2 0 6.9 7.9 0 0.4 0.8 11/29/2014 6:00 7.8 0 0.3 0 6.9 4.7 0 19.3 4.7 0 6.8 7.8 0 3.8 4.2 11/29/2014 12:00 7.7 68.9 0 6.9 121.4 21.6 121.4 26.7 27.7 10.4 10.8 11/29/2014 18:00 27.6 59.3 0 26.9 52.2 32.7 52.2 12.4 13.4 24.3 24.7 11/30/2014 0:00 13.3 0 3.0 0 14.2 2.6 15 10.6 2.6 0 2.4 3.4 0.1 17.7 18.1 11/30/2014 6:00 3.3 17 0.0 18 3.7 0 28 1.3 0 9 0.5 1.5 0.1 5.5 5.9 11/30/2014 12:00 0.4 0 0.0 0 0.3 0 0 0.5 0 2 0.9 1.9 23.8 0.2 0.6 11/30/2014 18:00 0 14 0.0 17 0 0 4 0 0 0 0.8 1.8 3 0 0.4 12/1/2014 0:00 0.1 1 0.0 1 0.1 0.3 0 0.1 0.3 0 2.6 3.6 0 0 0.4 12/1/2014 6:00 3.5 0 0.4 0.4 3.8 0 0 3.3 0 0 0.3 1.3 0 0.1 0.5 12/1/2014 12:00 1.2 0 4.1 0 1.7 3.5 0 2.4 3.5 0 1.3 2.3 0 0.5 0.9 12/1/2014 18:00 2.2 0 1.1 0 2 4.3 0 5.5 4.3 8 0.1 1.1 0 0.8 1.2 12/2/2014 0:00 1 0 0.3 0.1 1.3 4.9 0 2 4.9 0 10.2 11.2 0 0.6 1 12/2/2014 6:00 11.1 0 12.2 0 11.6 0 0 10.7 11.2 0 8 9 0 8.5 8.9 12/2/2014 12:00 8.9 0 9.8 0 10.3 0 2 8.5 9 0 1.7 2.7 0 7.3 7.7 12/2/2014 18:00 2.6 0 2.9 0 2.5 0 2 5.6 6.1 0 1 2 0 1.4 1.8 12/3/2014 0:00 1.9 10 2.1 15 2.1 0 1 3 3.5 0 0.1 1.1 0 1.6 2 12/3/2014 6:00 0.8 0 0.9 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.2 0 0.3 1.3 0 1.2 1.6 12/3/2014 12:00 0.6 0 0.7 0 0.7 0 0 1.4 1.9 0 0.4 1.4 0 0.3 0.7 12/3/2014 18:00 0.5 0 0.6 0 0.4 0 0 0.9 1.4 0 0.6 1.6 0 0.1 0.5 12/4/2014 0:00 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.3 0 0 0.6 1.1 0 1.5 2.5 0 0.1 0.5 12/4/2014 6:00 2.4 0 2.6 0 2.5 0 0 0.4 0.9 0 0.3 1.3 0 0.4 0.8 12/4/2014 12:00 1.2 0 1.3 0.9 1.1 0 0 0.9 1.4 0 0 1 0 0.2 0.6 12/4/2014 18:00 0.9 0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0 0 1.6 2.1 0 0.1 1.1 0 0.6 1 12/5/2014 0:00 1 0 1.1 0 0.9 0 0 2.8 3.3 0 0.4 1.4 0 0.5 0.9 12/5/2014 6:00 1.3 0 1.4 0.6 1.2 0 6 1.9 2.4 0 1.3 2.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 12/5/2014 12:00 2.2 0 2.4 0.1 2.1 0 0 1.2 1.7 0 0.1 1.1 0 1.2 1.6 12/5/2014 18:00 0.8 0 0.9 0 0.8 0 0 4.7 5.2 0 0.6 1.6 0 0.3 0.7 12/6/2014 0:00 1.5 4 1.7 6.3 1.3 0 0 6.5 7 0 0.9 1.9 0 0.4 0.8 148 Bảng 1.4a. Thực đo và tính toán của mô hình IFS và WRF trận mưa từ ngày 10/10-19/10/2015 Thời gian PoMoRe AyunPa KrongPa Mdrak AnKhe TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF 10/10/2015 6:00 2.0 0.2 6.7 10.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.6 3.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 10/10/2015 12:00 0.0 0.8 6.2 0.0 0.6 4.6 0.0 1.1 4.3 0.0 1.3 9.4 0.0 0.8 0.7 10/10/2015 18:00 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10/11/2015 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10/11/2015 6:00 0.0 0.1 5.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.0 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 10/11/2015 12:00 0.0 0.9 5.3 0.0 0.2 3.9 0.0 0.4 4.4 0.0 0.7 13.4 0.0 0.9 2.7 10/11/2015 18:00 0.0 18.1 3.4 0.0 4.3 0.1 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.1 0.0 2.7 0.0 10/12/2015 0:00 0.0 9.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 10/12/2015 6:00 0.0 0.8 4.5 0.0 0.1 2.2 0.0 0.2 2.5 0.0 1.8 2.4 0.0 0.5 1.8 10/12/2015 12:00 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 2.3 3.9 0.0 2.6 4.6 0.0 3.3 5.5 0.0 1.5 2.8 10/12/2015 18:00 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.1 11.5 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 10/13/2015 0:00 3.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.0 0.0 0.0 22.0 0.0 0.0 10/13/2015 6:00 0.0 0.2 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.1 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.9 10/13/2015 12:00 0.0 2.9 3.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.0 2.1 4.1 0.0 3.1 6.4 0.0 2.8 5.5 10/13/2015 18:00 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 10/14/2015 0:00 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 10/14/2015 6:00 45.0 17.7 5.5 0.0 2.1 7.6 0.0 6.8 7.6 0.0 5.5 5.8 0.0 3.1 7.1 10/14/2015 12:00 19.0 3.5 4.6 0.0 9.2 5.1 0.0 6.4 7.2 0.0 6.5 4.3 0.0 8.4 16.6 10/14/2015 18:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 10/15/2015 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10/15/2015 6:00 0.0 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.2 10/15/2015 12:00 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 2.6 5.7 0.0 1.2 2.5 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.5 10/15/2015 18:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10/16/2015 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10/16/2015 6:00 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10/16/2015 12:00 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 10/16/2015 18:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10/17/2015 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10/17/2015 6:00 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10/17/2015 12:00 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 10/17/2015 18:00 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 10/18/2015 0:00 0.0 5.7 0.0 4.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.0 0.0 10/18/2015 6:00 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 32.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 7.0 5.4 0.0 0.4 5.6 0.0 10/18/2015 12:00 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 3.0 7.9 0.0 4.0 9.4 0.0 6.6 2.3 0.0 10/18/2015 18:00 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 10.0 1.7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 10/19/2015 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.4 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 149 Bảng 1.4b. Thực đo và tính toán của mô hình IFS và WRF trận mưa từ ngày 10/10-19/10/2015 Thời gian CungSon KonTum BuonHo PhuLam TuyHoa TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF 10/10/2015 6:00 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.0 0.7 12.0 1.0 1.2 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.5 0.3 10/10/2015 12:00 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 10/10/2015 18:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10/11/2015 0:00 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 10/11/2015 6:00 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.0 3.5 0.3 0.0 4.0 0.3 10/11/2015 12:00 0.0 0.9 2.7 34.0 0.9 1.3 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.2 10/11/2015 18:00 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.8 0.0 1.8 2.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 10/12/2015 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.4 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10/12/2015 6:00 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 4.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.0 1.6 1.1 10/12/2015 12:00 0.0 1.8 2.8 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 2.1 2.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 10/12/2015 18:00 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 10/13/2015 0:00 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10/13/2015 6:00 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.9 10/13/2015 12:00 0.0 4.4 5.5 0.0 4.9 3.9 0.0 4.9 5.9 0.0 2.5 1.0 0.0 3.1 1.3 10/13/2015 18:00 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.9 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.0 2.0 1.2 0.0 2.3 1.0 10/14/2015 0:00 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 4.0 0.8 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.6 10/14/2015 6:00 0.0 7.2 7.1 0.0 9.5 4.3 0.0 9.5 11.4 0.0 4.0 2.1 0.0 4.9 2.1 10/14/2015 12:00 0.0 2.8 16.6 0.0 3.8 11.8 0.0 3.8 4.6 0.0 2.9 11.2 0.0 3.2 11.1 10/14/2015 18:00 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.5 4.0 0.3 4.7 10/15/2015 0:00 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10/15/2015 6:00 0.0 0.8 4.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.2 10/15/2015 12:00 0.0 2.3 6.5 0.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 2.6 3.1 0.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 3.6 0.9 10/15/2015 18:00 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 2.8 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 10/16/2015 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 10/16/2015 6:00 7.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 1.8 2.2 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.1 6.9 0.0 10/16/2015 12:00 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.7 0.0 1.7 2.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 10/16/2015 18:00 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 10/17/2015 0:00 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 10/17/2015 6:00 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 10/17/2015 12:00 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 10/17/2015 18:00 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.0 1.5 1.8 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 10/18/2015 0:00 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 2.8 18.2 0.0 2.8 3.4 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 10/18/2015 6:00 2.0 11.2 0.0 0.0 12.3 7.8 0.0 12.3 14.8 22.0 8.7 0.0 17.0 9.8 0.0 10/18/2015 12:00 12.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 5.5 3.2 0.0 5.5 6.6 24.0 4.5 0.0 28.0 4.6 0.0 10/18/2015 18:00 57.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 34.0 1.2 0.0 27.0 0.9 0.0 10/19/2015 0:00 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 150 Bảng 1.5a. Thực đo và tính toán của mô hình IFS và WRF trận mưa từ ngày 30/10-5/11/2016 Thời gian PoMoRe AnKhe AyunPa KrongPa CungSon TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF 10/30/2016 6:00 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.0 5.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 10.0 1.9 0.0 10/30/2016 12:00 0.0 0.2 0.0 40.0 2.9 0.2 22.0 1.7 0.0 119.0 1.9 0.0 44.0 2.9 0.4 10/30/2016 18:00 22.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 1.2 3.3 10/31/2016 0:00 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.8 1.0 0.2 3.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.0 1.2 2.3 10/31/2016 6:00 0.0 0.8 0.0 3.0 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 1.4 0.7 10/31/2016 12:00 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.7 3.6 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.9 10/31/2016 18:00 2.0 0.1 0.0 12.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.5 11/1/2016 0:00 1.0 2.1 0.0 11.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.1 0.2 2.0 17.6 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.2 11/1/2016 6:00 0.0 3.6 3.8 10.0 5.0 9.5 0.0 14.1 2.1 0.0 4.9 1.1 0.0 3.9 0.5 11/1/2016 12:00 4.0 0.7 8.4 26.0 3.5 24.1 0.0 3.2 18.5 0.0 3.6 11.2 4.0 3.8 13.9 11/1/2016 18:00 4.0 1.2 1.0 8.0 5.7 14.7 1.0 1.3 8.3 0.0 2.6 4.1 22.0 4.8 4.6 11/2/2016 0:00 5.0 1.1 1.2 5.0 5.0 12.7 32.0 0.1 5.3 71.0 0.7 1.6 18.0 3.6 4.7 11/2/2016 6:00 4.0 2.2 3.3 64.0 5.7 11.9 2.0 3.5 5.3 0.0 4.0 5.3 4.0 5.4 12.0 11/2/2016 12:00 21.0 1.9 1.2 66.0 8.8 11.5 2.0 5.1 7.4 30.0 4.1 6.4 21.0 6.4 12.3 11/2/2016 18:00 4.0 2.6 0.2 7.0 12.0 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.5 0.0 5.4 4.8 12.0 4.9 14.6 11/3/2016 0:00 12.0 1.1 0.1 69.0 6.0 5.0 17.0 3.1 6.3 95.0 3.5 7.1 49.0 3.7 19.7 11/3/2016 6:00 6.0 1.9 3.9 140.0 4.9 12.5 63.0 8.6 11.1 0.0 6.0 8.0 99.0 6.9 14.4 11/3/2016 12:00 2.0 0.3 1.1 15.0 4.9 6.1 56.0 7.2 6.3 120.0 3.7 5.3 74.0 7.4 13.0 11/3/2016 18:00 1.0 3.4 0.2 5.0 5.8 1.5 14.0 5.9 0.6 0.0 6.1 0.6 42.0 13.8 11.2 11/4/2016 0:00 0.0 2.9 0.1 5.0 4.1 1.3 4.0 9.0 0.6 135.0 15.4 0.5 40.0 16.0 6.1 11/4/2016 6:00 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.0 3.0 0.8 1.0 4.1 0.2 0.0 1.6 0.3 14.0 4.9 3.9 11/4/2016 12:00 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 30.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.2 5.6 11/4/2016 18:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 6.7 5.6 11/5/2016 0:00 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.8 4.3 0.0 5.8 3.7 1.0 2.0 3.7 10.0 8.6 14.9 151 Bảng 1.5b. Thực đo và tính toán của mô hình IFS và WRF trận mưa từ ngày 30/10-5/11/2016 Thời gian Mdrak KonTum BuonHo PhuLam TuyHoa TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF 10/30/2016 6:00 26.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.7 1.6 3.2 44.0 2.7 0.7 32.0 0.6 0.8 10/30/2016 12:00 2.0 0.8 2.3 0.0 3.0 0.0 18.3 0.2 2.3 36.0 2.4 2.3 27.0 2.1 2.7 10/30/2016 18:00 4.0 0.1 4.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 7.0 1.3 4.0 4.0 3.7 4.8 10/31/2016 0:00 34.0 0.4 2.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 19.0 0.4 1.8 0.0 2.0 3.3 1.0 3.1 4.0 10/31/2016 6:00 0.7 1.6 4.8 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 1.5 5.0 1.2 1.6 10/31/2016 12:00 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.0 1.5 2.9 0.0 2.6 3.4 10/31/2016 18:00 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 3.1 4.0 2.9 2.0 1.0 1.8 2.3 11/1/2016 0:00 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.0 2.9 0.0 5.0 2.5 5.2 0.0 5.0 4.4 0.0 4.0 5.2 11/1/2016 6:00 8.0 5.6 14.8 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.1 4.3 7.7 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 11/1/2016 12:00 2.0 2.1 2.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.5 1.0 6.4 13.5 0.7 14.0 18.2 11/1/2016 18:00 0.0 2.4 3.2 2.0 4.5 0.0 4.9 1.4 4.5 26.0 4.3 6.2 9.0 6.5 8.5 11/2/2016 0:00 22.0 0.7 8.8 16.0 3.1 0.0 9.0 1.3 3.6 5.0 3.4 7.2 1.0 7.2 9.4 11/2/2016 6:00 45.0 4.7 14.9 13.0 5.6 0.0 8.0 2.6 5.9 25.0 5.3 16.9 14.0 17.0 22.1 11/2/2016 12:00 31.0 4.7 13.7 18.0 6.1 0.0 2.0 2.3 15.4 29.0 14.5 19.6 9.0 19.1 24.8 11/2/2016 18:00 19.0 5.5 17.7 14.0 5.1 0.0 2.0 3.1 15.8 9.0 15.1 23.9 18.0 24.0 31.2 11/3/2016 0:00 32.0 4.5 17.4 0.0 4.1 0.0 14.0 1.3 18.0 101.0 20.3 31.5 86.0 30.9 40.2 11/3/2016 6:00 36.0 9.1 15.2 0.0 6.7 0.0 59.0 2.3 12.2 100.0 10.6 23.3 86.0 23.1 30.0 11/3/2016 12:00 105.0 7.6 10.4 1.0 7.6 0.0 16.0 0.4 14.2 51.0 13.1 21.2 37.0 20.8 27.0 11/3/2016 18:00 35.0 10.3 6.7 0.0 12.7 0.0 24.0 4.1 23.0 55.0 22.3 19.3 56.0 19.2 25.0 11/4/2016 0:00 34.0 17.7 2.6 0.0 16.0 0.0 9.0 3.5 21.2 26.0 21.1 12.8 16.0 12.2 15.9 11/4/2016 6:00 28.0 2.3 3.2 0.0 4.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 8.2 59.0 6.8 11.5 42.0 10.9 14.2 11/4/2016 12:00 45.0 2.1 4.1 0.0 4.9 0.0 2.0 0.0 10.5 17.0 9.0 16.4 6.0 15.6 20.3 11/4/2016 18:00 41.0 7.9 12.2 0.0 5.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 13.2 0.0 12.4 13.8 9.0 13.2 17.2 11/5/2016 0:00 14.0 18.2 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 16.0 41.0 14.4 22.5 26.0 22.1 28.7 152 Bảng 1.6. Thực đo và tính toán của mô hình IFS và WRF trận mưa từ ngày 12/12-14/12/2016 Thời gian PoMoRe AnKhe AyunPa KrongPa CungSon TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF TĐ IFS WRF 12/10/2016 6:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12/10/2016 12:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12/10/2016 18:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 12/11/2016 0:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.9 6.1 12/11/2016 6:00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.7 0.0 8.6 18.1 0.0 8.6 18.1 0.0 16.6 34.9 12/11/2016 12:00 0.0 1.4 2.5 0.0 2.9 6.1 0.0 3.8 8.0 0.0 4.7 9.9 0.0 10.9 22.9 12/11/2016 18:00 0.0 1.8 3.2 0.5 5.4 11.3 0.0 6.1 12.8 0.0 8.5 17.9 2.0 10.7 22.5 12/12/2016 0:00 0.0 7.7 13.9 19.5 11.3 23.7 2.0 32.1 67.4 2.0 53.3 111.9 5.0 38.2 80.2 12/12/2016 6:00 1.0 8.1 14.6 10.0 7.4 15.5 7.0 5.1 10.7 0.0 4.6 9.7 6.0 5.8 12.2 12/12/2016 12:00 19.0 2.9 5.2 104.0 2.5 5.3 9.0 5.4 11.3 10.0 5.6 11.8 6.0 8.1 17.0 12/12/2016 18:00 36.0 0.1 0.2 42.0 1.1 2.3 8.0 1.2 2.5 0.0 1.2 2.5 39.0 3.8 8.0 12/13/2016 0:00 9.0 0.0 0.0 31.0 0.2 0.4 6.0 0.7 1.5 35.0 2.6 5.5 9.0 4.4 9.2 12/13/2016 6:00 0.0 4.1 7.4 2.0 6.9 14.5 0.3 2.5 5.3 0.0 7.0 14.7 4.0 24.1 50.6 12/13/2016 12:00 0.0 2.4 4.3 5.0 3.6 7.6 2.7 92.5 194.3 9.0 56.6 118.9 6.0 16.6 34.9 12/13/2016 18:00 5.0 1.4 2.5 11.0 2.2 4.6 17.0 12.9 27.1 0.0 2.1 4.4 117.0 4.0 8.4 12/14/2016 0:00 12.0 1.6 2.9 15.0 5.8 12.2 6.0 5.7 12.0 32.0 9.4 19.7 11.0 19.3 40.5 153 Phụ lục 2: Kết quả dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Bảng 2.1. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ An Khê sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2013 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/13/2013 19:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/14/2013 1:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/14/2013 7:00 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11/14/2013 13:00 0 0 0.3 0.4 0.0 11/14/2013 19:00 0 0 1.2 1.2 0.0 11/15/2013 1:00 0.294 0.189 8.5 7.2 0.3 11/15/2013 7:00 1.4 1.105 22 19.1 1.4 11/15/2013 13:00 6.56 4.438 41.4 36.6 5.0 11/15/2013 19:00 11.571 7.584 43.9 38.7 9.0 11/16/2013 1:00 15.123 9.933 41.8 36.6 12.0 11/16/2013 7:00 19.237 12.7 42.6 36.6 18.0 11/16/2013 13:00 25.487 17.147 46.9 39.6 22.0 11/16/2013 19:00 30.589 21.597 47 40.8 29.0 11/17/2013 1:00 34.628 25.011 46.7 40 34.4 11/17/2013 7:00 39.424 29.573 48.8 42.5 39.8 11/17/2013 13:00 45.778 35.273 52.8 45.8 46.6 11/17/2013 19:00 49.788 39.602 52 45.9 51.6 11/18/2013 1:00 50.969 42.203 49.4 44.8 54.5 11/18/2013 7:00 50.09 43.971 46.4 44.3 56.3 11/18/2013 13:00 47.809 44.259 42.5 41.8 54.0 11/18/2013 19:00 45.182 43.855 38.2 37.8 53.0 11/19/2013 1:00 41.994 44.764 34.9 35.3 52.5 11/19/2013 7:00 38.416 44.089 32 32.1 50.4 11/19/2013 13:00 34.793 41.787 29.2 29.4 47.6 11/19/2013 19:00 31.347 38.679 26.7 26.9 44.7 11/20/2013 1:00 28.196 35.282 24.5 24.6 41.1 11/20/2013 7:00 25.388 31.91 22.4 22.5 39.0 11/20/2013 13:00 22.932 28.741 20.5 20.6 34.9 11/20/2013 19:00 20.812 25.865 18.7 18.8 31.2 11/21/2013 1:00 19 23.316 17.1 17.2 27.9 11/21/2013 7:00 17.46 21.095 15.7 15.7 25.0 11/21/2013 13:00 16.156 19.183 14.3 14.4 22.6 11/21/2013 19:00 15.055 17.55 13.1 13.2 20.5 11/22/2013 1:00 14.124 16.164 12 12 18.7 11/22/2013 7:00 13.336 14.991 11 11 17.2 154 Bảng 2.2. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ An Khê sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2014 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/27/2014 19:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/28/2014 1:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/28/2014 7:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/28/2014 13:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/28/2014 19:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/29/2014 1:00 0 0 0 0 0.0 11/29/2014 7:00 0 0 0.1 0.2 3.0 11/29/2014 13:00 0 0 1.3 1.9 3.0 11/29/2014 19:00 0.757 0.857 13 14 6.0 11/30/2014 1:00 5.742 6.991 39.8 42.5 11.0 11/30/2014 7:00 16.055 18.383 54.7 56.9 21.3 11/30/2014 13:00 23.737 27.304 54.1 57.1 31.6 11/30/2014 19:00 27.451 31.748 49.6 52.7 36.6 12/1/2014 1:00 28.505 32.995 45.2 48.2 38.0 12/1/2014 7:00 27.979 32.332 41.3 44 36.0 12/1/2014 13:00 28.636 30.615 41.9 40.6 34.0 12/1/2014 19:00 28.752 28.407 39.8 37.5 31.0 12/2/2014 1:00 29.317 26.258 39.1 34.9 30.8 12/2/2014 7:00 28.914 24.119 36.4 32.1 30.0 12/2/2014 13:00 27.565 22.044 33.3 29.3 26.0 12/2/2014 19:00 25.746 20.12 30.5 26.8 23.7 12/3/2014 1:00 23.756 18.386 27.9 24.5 21.5 12/3/2014 7:00 21.776 16.855 25.5 22.4 19.6 12/3/2014 13:00 19.91 15.522 23.3 20.5 17.9 12/3/2014 19:00 18.21 14.372 21.3 18.8 16.4 12/4/2014 1:00 16.697 13.385 19.5 17.2 15.2 12/4/2014 7:00 15.372 12.542 17.9 15.7 14.1 12/4/2014 13:00 14.223 11.823 16.3 14.4 13.2 12/4/2014 19:00 13.235 11.207 14.9 13.1 12.4 12/5/2014 1:00 12.388 10.68 13.7 12 11.7 155 Bảng 2.3. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ An Khê sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2015 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/7/2015 19:00 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10/8/2015 1:00 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10/8/2015 7:00 0 0 0.5 0.6 0.0 10/8/2015 13:00 0.002 0.022 3.2 4.1 0.0 10/8/2015 19:00 0.165 0.241 8.3 9.7 0.3 10/9/2015 1:00 0.262 0.325 10.3 11.4 0.4 10/9/2015 7:00 0.423 0.485 12 12.6 0.6 10/9/2015 13:00 0.602 0.673 13.4 13.7 0.9 10/9/2015 19:00 0.764 0.809 13.7 13.4 1.1 10/10/2015 1:00 0.935 0.98 12.8 12.3 1.3 10/10/2015 7:00 1.405 1.418 15.3 14.5 1.9 10/10/2015 13:00 2.012 1.971 20.1 18.8 5.0 10/10/2015 19:00 2.317 2.237 19.8 18.4 6.0 10/11/2015 1:00 3.212 2.853 19.8 17.6 8.0 10/11/2015 7:00 14.586 11.432 43.6 38.2 22.0 10/11/2015 13:00 53.449 43.429 88.2 80.7 66.0 10/11/2015 19:00 82.622 67.228 92.8 85.1 90.0 10/12/2015 1:00 89.218 77.762 84.6 77.3 95.0 10/12/2015 7:00 92.534 80.388 78.7 70.1 96.0 10/12/2015 13:00 96.66 82.53 80.8 69.8 87.8 10/12/2015 19:00 96.834 81.111 77.2 65.5 85.9 10/13/2015 1:00 92.301 76.35 70.4 59.9 80.6 10/13/2015 7:00 85.089 69.895 64.4 54.8 73.6 10/13/2015 13:00 76.756 62.841 58.9 50.2 66.0 10/13/2015 19:00 68.262 55.849 53.8 45.9 58.5 10/14/2015 1:00 60.166 49.294 49.2 42 51.4 10/14/2015 7:00 52.764 43.365 45 38.4 45.1 10/14/2015 13:00 46.185 38.133 41.2 35.1 39.5 10/14/2015 19:00 40.454 33.599 37.7 32.1 34.6 10/15/2015 1:00 35.534 29.72 34.5 29.4 30.5 10/15/2015 7:00 31.359 26.435 31.5 26.9 27.0 10/15/2015 13:00 27.844 23.672 28.8 24.6 24.0 10/15/2015 19:00 24.904 21.36 26.4 22.5 21.6 156 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/16/2015 1:00 22.454 19.432 24.1 20.6 19.5 10/16/2015 7:00 20.418 17.827 22.1 18.8 17.8 10/16/2015 13:00 18.729 16.49 20.2 17.2 16.4 10/16/2015 19:00 17.325 15.375 18.5 15.7 15.3 10/17/2015 1:00 16.157 14.443 16.9 14.4 14.3 10/17/2015 7:00 15.182 13.659 15.4 13.2 13.5 10/17/2015 13:00 14.364 12.996 14.1 12 12.8 10/17/2015 19:00 13.673 12.432 12.9 11 12.2 10/18/2015 1:00 13.085 11.946 11.8 10.1 11.7 10/18/2015 7:00 12.579 11.525 10.8 9.2 11.3 10/18/2015 13:00 12.141 11.155 9.9 8.4 10.9 10/18/2015 19:00 11.756 10.826 9 7.7 10.6 Bảng 2.5. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ An Khê sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2016 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/30/2016 19:00 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10/31/2016 1:00 0 0 0.5 0.7 0.0 10/31/2016 7:00 0 0 0.6 0.9 0.0 10/31/2016 13:00 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.0 10/31/2016 19:00 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.0 11/1/2016 1:00 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.0 11/1/2016 7:00 0 0 1.1 1.1 0.0 11/1/2016 13:00 0.134 0.181 6.7 7.4 0.3 11/1/2016 19:00 0.416 0.513 12.6 14 0.8 11/2/2016 1:00 0.668 0.782 15.1 16.4 1.2 11/2/2016 7:00 1.218 1.298 19.1 19.6 2.1 11/2/2016 13:00 2.24 2.152 26 24.9 5.0 11/2/2016 19:00 4.506 3.905 30.9 28.9 10.1 11/3/2016 1:00 10.257 8.173 38.8 34.8 19.1 11/3/2016 7:00 22.146 18.161 51.9 47.2 36.5 11/3/2016 13:00 36.339 29.324 60.9 53.7 45.0 11/3/2016 19:00 45.601 36.403 59.8 52.1 55.0 11/4/2016 1:00 49.907 39.405 56.3 48.5 59.0 11/4/2016 7:00 50.802 39.843 52.7 45.1 61.0 11/4/2016 13:00 49.537 39.685 49.1 43.5 60.0 157 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/4/2016 19:00 47.409 39.204 46.1 41.7 55.0 11/5/2016 1:00 49.086 41.72 49.3 44.6 60.0 11/5/2016 7:00 50.774 44.167 47.2 42.7 61.0 11/5/2016 13:00 57.781 49.651 54.4 47 66.0 11/5/2016 19:00 61.841 52.14 52.8 44.3 65.0 11/6/2016 1:00 61.417 51.209 46.6 39.5 60.0 11/6/2016 7:00 58.32 48.366 42.5 36.1 61.0 11/6/2016 13:00 53.862 44.585 38.9 33.1 55.0 11/6/2016 19:00 48.878 40.48 35.6 30.2 53.2 11/7/2016 1:00 43.876 36.42 32.6 27.7 47.3 11/7/2016 7:00 39.146 32.616 29.8 25.3 42.0 11/7/2016 13:00 34.842 29.173 27.2 23.1 37.2 11/7/2016 19:00 31.023 26.128 24.9 21.2 33.0 11/8/2016 1:00 27.697 23.481 22.8 19.4 29.4 11/8/2016 7:00 24.839 21.208 20.8 17.7 26.4 11/8/2016 13:00 22.405 19.273 19.1 16.2 23.8 11/8/2016 19:00 20.348 17.635 17.4 14.8 21.6 11/9/2016 1:00 18.617 16.254 16 13.6 19.8 11/9/2016 7:00 17.164 15.091 14.6 12.4 18.3 11/9/2016 13:00 15.945 14.112 13.3 11.3 17.0 11/9/2016 19:00 14.921 13.286 12.2 10.4 15.9 11/10/2016 1:00 14.059 12.586 11.2 9.5 15.0 11/10/2016 7:00 13.33 11.991 10.2 8.7 14.3 11/10/2016 13:00 12.71 11.48 9.3 7.9 13.6 11/10/2016 19:00 12.179 11.038 8.5 7.3 13.1 11/11/2016 1:00 11.72 10.653 7.8 6.6 12.6 11/11/2016 7:00 11.318 10.313 7.1 6.1 12.2 11/11/2016 13:00 10.965 10.01 6.5 5.6 11.8 11/11/2016 19:00 10.649 9.737 6 5.1 11.5 11/12/2016 1:00 10.364 9.488 5.5 4.6 11.2 11/12/2016 7:00 10.104 9.258 5 4.2 10.9 11/12/2016 13:00 9.863 9.045 4.6 3.9 10.7 11/12/2016 19:00 9.64 8.844 4.2 3.6 10.4 11/13/2016 1:00 9.429 8.654 3.8 3.3 10.2 11/13/2016 7:00 9.23 8.472 3.5 3 10.0 11/13/2016 13:00 9.04 8.298 3.2 2.7 9.8 11/13/2016 19:00 8.857 8.13 2.9 2.5 9.6 158 Bảng 2.6. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Ayun Hạ sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2013 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/14/2013 7:00 0.504 0.528 0 0 0.6 11/14/2013 13:00 0.702 0.764 0.1 0.3 0.8 11/14/2013 19:00 2.756 2.84 1.4 1.7 2.9 11/15/2013 1:00 13.18 13.761 10.6 10.9 13.8 11/15/2013 7:00 34.409 34.838 36.2 36.8 34.3 11/15/2013 13:00 50.954 52.006 59.1 59.6 50.3 11/15/2013 19:00 60.939 62.318 61.2 62.8 60.2 11/16/2013 1:00 67.377 67.603 61 61.3 66.9 11/16/2013 7:00 72.988 70.977 63.8 61.2 73.1 11/16/2013 13:00 75.922 71.666 67.4 62.2 76.7 11/16/2013 19:00 76.991 70.47 67.9 61.1 78.5 11/17/2013 1:00 77.805 68.645 69.4 60.4 80.1 11/17/2013 7:00 78.694 68.99 72.5 62.7 81.9 11/17/2013 13:00 77.977 70.588 74.5 68.4 82.0 11/17/2013 19:00 75.626 71.361 73.6 72.1 80.3 11/18/2013 1:00 72.076 70.71 71.8 72.6 77.2 11/18/2013 7:00 67.822 69.154 69.7 72.2 73.3 11/18/2013 13:00 63.253 66.488 67.7 71.3 69.1 11/18/2013 19:00 58.64 63.377 66 69.7 64.8 11/19/2013 1:00 54.156 61.349 64.1 69.7 60.4 11/19/2013 7:00 49.905 58.853 61.8 70.2 56.0 11/19/2013 13:00 45.946 55.766 59.5 68 51.8 11/19/2013 19:00 42.309 52.387 57.3 65.5 47.8 11/20/2013 1:00 39 48.922 55.2 63.1 44.0 11/20/2013 13:00 33.334 42.249 51.2 58.5 37.5 11/20/2013 19:00 30.941 39.184 49.3 56.3 34.7 11/21/2013 1:00 28.81 36.348 47.5 54.2 32.2 11/21/2013 7:00 26.916 33.752 45.7 52.2 29.9 159 Bảng 2.7. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Ayun Hạ sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2014 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/28/2014 7:00 0.486 0.486 0 0 0.5 11/28/2014 13:00 0.636 0.642 0 0 0.7 11/28/2014 19:00 0.774 0.788 0 0 0.9 11/29/2014 1:00 0.895 0.919 0 0 1.1 11/29/2014 7:00 0.996 1.039 0 0 1.2 11/29/2014 13:00 1.76 1.909 0.3 0.4 2.1 11/29/2014 19:00 16.163 15.565 11.2 10.8 16.2 11/30/2014 1:00 41.192 46.99 46.4 49.6 47.4 11/30/2014 7:00 67.07 82.547 76.1 94.1 76.3 11/30/2014 13:00 85.5 107.778 90 115.4 97.1 11/30/2014 19:00 95.598 121.633 91 116.2 108.5 12/1/2014 1:00 99.517 127.175 88 112.3 112.9 12/1/2014 7:00 99.216 127.031 84.9 108.3 112.6 12/1/2014 13:00 96.453 123.138 83.1 104.7 110.3 12/1/2014 19:00 92.315 116.906 82.3 101.4 106.4 12/2/2014 1:00 88.766 109.349 81.9 98.2 103.1 12/2/2014 7:00 84.359 101.176 82.2 94.8 98.6 12/2/2014 13:00 79.124 92.875 79.6 91.3 92.9 12/2/2014 19:00 73.517 84.769 76.7 87.9 86.6 12/3/2014 1:00 67.851 77.067 73.8 84.7 80.2 12/3/2014 7:00 62.335 69.891 71.1 81.6 73.8 12/3/2014 13:00 57.1 63.305 68.5 78.5 67.7 12/3/2014 19:00 52.225 57.328 66 75.6 62.0 12/4/2014 1:00 47.748 51.952 63.5 72.8 56.8 12/4/2014 13:00 40.014 42.888 58.9 67.6 47.6 12/4/2014 19:00 36.732 39.118 56.7 65.1 43.7 12/5/2014 1:00 33.808 35.796 54.6 62.7 40.3 160 Bảng 2.8. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Ayun Hạ sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2015 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/8/2015 7:00 2.138 2.62 1.6 2 2.1 10/8/2015 13:00 3.862 4.449 3 3.8 3.7 10/8/2015 19:00 5.914 6.415 5.1 5.7 5.7 10/9/2015 1:00 7.499 8.005 6.6 6.9 7.3 10/9/2015 7:00 9.584 10.063 7.6 8 9.3 10/9/2015 13:00 11.701 12.253 9.6 10.1 11.4 10/9/2015 19:00 13.071 13.672 10.7 11.3 12.7 10/10/2015 1:00 13.868 14.446 10.6 11.1 13.5 10/10/2015 7:00 15.141 15.554 11.3 11.5 14.9 10/10/2015 13:00 17.32 17.734 13.8 14 17.0 10/10/2015 19:00 18.919 19.628 16.2 16.9 18.7 10/11/2015 1:00 20.829 20.895 17.2 17.8 22.7 10/11/2015 7:00 26.893 25.302 22.7 21 29.8 10/11/2015 13:00 33.373 30.029 32.6 28.5 37.2 10/11/2015 19:00 38.019 33.474 37 31.9 42.6 10/12/2015 1:00 40.541 37.127 37.6 34 45.6 10/12/2015 7:00 45.656 44.831 40.2 40.8 51.1 10/12/2015 13:00 59.42 62.28 55.5 60.1 65.1 10/12/2015 19:00 69.435 75.087 72.9 80.5 75.1 10/13/2015 1:00 74.177 81.493 72.9 80.6 79.7 10/13/2015 7:00 75.264 83.483 70.2 78.2 80.5 10/13/2015 13:00 74.455 83.67 69 77.6 79.7 10/13/2015 19:00 72.191 81.772 69 77.6 77.4 10/14/2015 1:00 68.743 78.261 66.8 75.4 73.8 10/14/2015 13:00 60.2 68.861 61.9 70.1 64.7 10/14/2015 19:00 55.717 63.769 59.6 67.5 59.9 10/15/2015 1:00 51.344 58.744 57.4 65 55.3 10/15/2015 7:00 47.188 53.931 55.3 62.6 50.8 10/16/2015 13:00 30.932 34.906 45.3 51.2 33.4 10/16/2015 19:00 28.583 32.144 43.1 48.7 30.9 10/17/2015 1:00 26.491 29.687 40.9 46.3 28.7 10/17/2015 7:00 24.635 27.507 39 44.3 26.7 10/17/2015 13:00 22.988 25.577 37.1 42.2 24.9 10/17/2015 19:00 21.528 23.869 35 39.9 23.4 10/18/2015 1:00 20.233 22.358 33.4 38.1 20.0 10/18/2015 7:00 19.082 21.02 32.1 36.7 18.8 10/18/2015 13:00 18.058 19.834 30.5 34.9 17.8 161 Bảng 2.9. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Ayun Hạ sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2016 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/31/2016 7:00 0.637 0.629 0.3 0.1 0.7 10/31/2016 13:00 0.939 0.859 0.4 0.1 1.1 10/31/2016 19:00 1.268 1.09 0.5 0.1 1.5 11/1/2016 1:00 1.6 1.321 0.5 0.2 1.9 11/1/2016 7:00 1.925 1.576 0.6 0.5 2.4 11/1/2016 13:00 2.473 1.998 1 1.1 3.5 11/1/2016 19:00 3.693 2.653 2.2 1.7 5.3 11/2/2016 1:00 5.174 3.591 4 2.4 7.6 11/2/2016 7:00 6.813 5.609 5.6 4.1 10.0 11/2/2016 13:00 9.058 8.483 7.4 7.4 13.1 11/2/2016 19:00 13.165 13.068 11.1 11.9 18.7 11/3/2016 1:00 19.603 20.036 18.1 19.1 27.3 11/3/2016 7:00 29.631 29.649 28.4 29.1 40.3 11/3/2016 13:00 42.216 42.406 41.9 41.7 56.4 11/3/2016 19:00 60.64 59.07 58.6 57.6 78.1 11/4/2016 1:00 93.136 89.06 91 86 113.4 11/4/2016 7:00 120.36 115.301 126.7 120.4 142.9 11/4/2016 13:00 137.007 134.061 134 131.1 161.1 11/4/2016 19:00 151.631 150.394 138.5 139.7 179.7 11/5/2016 1:00 179.373 171.919 158.4 156.9 223.1 11/5/2016 7:00 230.211 197.016 190.9 178.2 272.0 11/5/2016 13:00 244.946 195.946 213.6 187.3 282.2 11/5/2016 19:00 232.614 193.68 214.1 183.3 262.9 11/6/2016 1:00 215.361 186.969 207.1 177 235.2 11/6/2016 13:00 191.943 164.728 192.1 164.4 204.2 11/6/2016 19:00 177.406 151.786 185 158.3 188.0 11/7/2016 1:00 162.437 138.721 178.2 152.5 171.6 11/7/2016 7:00 147.696 126.024 171.6 146.8 155.6 11/8/2016 13:00 87.44 75.083 142.1 121.6 91.7 11/8/2016 19:00 78.611 67.7 136.8 117.1 82.5 11/9/2016 1:00 70.784 61.163 131.7 112.8 74.3 11/9/2016 7:00 63.88 55.403 126.8 108.6 67.1 11/9/2016 13:00 57.815 50.346 122.1 104.5 60.8 11/9/2016 19:00 52.505 45.918 117.5 100.4 55.2 11/10/2016 1:00 47.867 42.048 112.7 96.5 50.4 162 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/10/2016 7:00 43.823 38.671 107.9 92.7 46.2 11/10/2016 13:00 40.301 35.726 103.5 88.7 42.6 11/10/2016 19:00 37.235 33.158 99 84.3 39.4 11/11/2016 1:00 34.565 30.916 94 79.7 36.6 11/11/2016 7:00 32.238 28.958 88.2 74.3 34.2 11/11/2016 13:00 30.208 27.243 81.4 68.2 32.1 11/11/2016 19:00 28.433 25.737 74 61.5 30.3 11/12/2016 1:00 26.876 24.411 65.5 53.9 28.7 11/12/2016 7:00 25.507 23.24 55.4 45.7 27.3 11/12/2016 13:00 24.298 22.199 47.7 38.8 26.0 11/12/2016 19:00 23.225 21.271 43 33 24.9 11/13/2016 1:00 22.269 20.438 37.8 27.8 23.9 11/13/2016 7:00 21.413 19.687 31.8 23.4 23.0 11/13/2016 13:00 20.64 19.005 26.7 19.7 22.2 11/13/2016 19:00 19.939 18.382 22.5 16.5 21.5 Bảng 2.10. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Krông Hnăng sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2013 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/13/2013 7:00 0.001 0.001 0 0 0.0 11/13/2013 13:00 0.022 0.027 0 0.3 0.0 11/13/2013 19:00 0.069 0.139 0.2 1.2 0.0 11/14/2013 1:00 0.142 2.394 0.3 4.6 0.1 11/14/2013 7:00 0.239 11.316 0.8 24.9 0.1 11/14/2013 13:00 0.913 21.819 2.4 34.8 0.2 11/14/2013 19:00 5.434 35.42 9.7 58 0.6 11/15/2013 1:00 21.362 56.725 55.3 115 3.6 11/15/2013 7:00 65.231 105.443 180.1 193.9 14.7 11/15/2013 13:00 162.979 180.39 290.8 265.7 43.1 11/15/2013 19:00 273.227 276.176 355.8 341.9 137.5 11/16/2013 1:00 370.63 367.178 402.9 398.3 261.3 11/16/2013 7:00 407.521 401.296 395.7 394.1 377.3 11/16/2013 13:00 437.3 413.217 415.8 394.4 480.0 11/16/2013 19:00 454.962 432.438 436.2 421.9 507.4 11/17/2013 1:00 481.271 457.898 476.1 461 537.5 11/17/2013 7:00 482.924 436.037 487.6 441.1 539.9 11/17/2013 13:00 468.134 402.517 485.6 413.4 523.7 163 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/17/2013 19:00 435.138 362.329 465.4 381.3 487.1 11/18/2013 1:00 396.57 334.472 439.8 365.3 420.4 11/18/2013 7:00 354.166 305.223 400.5 334.9 374.5 11/18/2013 13:00 315.273 275.703 344.4 304.6 315.5 11/18/2013 19:00 285.103 256.13 314.8 279.6 291.4 11/19/2013 1:00 263.74 246.754 289 262 234.2 11/19/2013 7:00 235.24 224.322 265.3 240.5 189.3 11/19/2013 13:00 208.598 201.413 243.5 220.8 176.8 11/19/2013 19:00 187.326 182.122 223.5 202.6 164.6 11/20/2013 1:00 175.798 171.977 205.2 186 153.0 11/20/2013 7:00 164.39 161.671 188.3 170.8 141.9 11/20/2013 13:00 153.265 151.416 172.9 156.7 131.4 11/20/2013 19:00 142.542 141.373 158.7 143.9 121.6 11/21/2013 1:00 132.303 131.658 145.7 132.1 112.4 11/21/2013 7:00 122.601 122.356 133.7 121.2 103.8 11/21/2013 13:00 113.467 113.521 122.7 111.3 95.9 11/21/2013 19:00 104.917 105.187 112.7 102.2 93.4 11/22/2013 1:00 96.949 97.37 103.4 93.8 95.9 11/22/2013 7:00 89.554 90.075 94.9 86.1 93.4 Bảng 2.11. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Krông Hnăng sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2014 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/27/2014 13:00 0.021 0.02 0 0 0.0 11/27/2014 19:00 0.062 0.059 0 0 0.1 11/28/2014 1:00 0.12 0.112 0 0 0.1 11/28/2014 7:00 0.189 0.174 0.1 0 0.2 11/28/2014 13:00 0.266 0.245 0.1 0.1 0.3 11/28/2014 19:00 0.347 0.33 0.1 0.5 0.4 11/29/2014 1:00 0.429 0.436 0.1 1.1 0.5 11/29/2014 7:00 0.511 0.564 0.1 1.5 0.5 11/29/2014 13:00 0.598 0.957 0.9 1.9 0.6 11/29/2014 19:00 3.208 5.966 6.6 12.3 3.7 11/30/2014 1:00 11.209 13.39 23.3 21.7 14.2 11/30/2014 7:00 19.206 20.427 27 24.8 23.8 164 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/30/2014 13:00 26.055 26.965 28.6 27.8 32.1 11/30/2014 19:00 32.726 37.092 33.4 50 40.3 12/1/2014 1:00 41.408 53.027 49.3 91.6 50.9 12/1/2014 7:00 51.479 69.762 64.2 111.5 63.2 12/1/2014 13:00 64.622 90.818 93.5 143.7 78.7 12/1/2014 19:00 78.724 129.224 113.2 187.9 94.9 12/2/2014 1:00 97.298 182.156 144.9 241.7 115.8 12/2/2014 7:00 107.973 202.678 137.3 228.6 127.8 12/2/2014 13:00 114.281 204.228 123.9 206.2 136.1 12/2/2014 19:00 117.99 196.647 111.7 185.9 145.0 12/3/2014 1:00 118.918 184.436 100.7 167.7 156.0 12/3/2014 7:00 117.729 170.337 92.4 153.9 111.1 12/3/2014 13:00 114.961 159.178 84.8 141.3 102.8 12/3/2014 19:00 111.049 152.278 77.9 129.7 95.2 12/4/2014 1:00 106.339 144.635 71.5 119 88.1 12/4/2014 7:00 101.106 136.561 65.6 109.3 81.6 12/4/2014 13:00 95.566 128.3 60.2 100.3 75.7 12/4/2014 19:00 89.888 120.036 55.3 92.1 70.2 12/5/2014 1:00 84.202 111.912 50.8 84.5 65.2 Bảng 2.12. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Krông Hnăng sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2015 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/7/2015 7:00 0.001 0.001 0 0 0.0 10/7/2015 13:00 0.031 0.021 0.4 0 0.0 10/7/2015 19:00 0.104 0.065 0.7 0.1 0.1 10/8/2015 1:00 0.207 0.131 0.7 0.2 0.2 10/8/2015 7:00 0.493 0.217 1.4 0.4 0.6 10/8/2015 13:00 2.361 0.325 3.7 1 2.5 10/8/2015 19:00 4.325 0.58 4.7 1.3 4.6 10/9/2015 1:00 5.895 5.274 4.4 11.3 7.8 10/9/2015 7:00 8.364 10.299 6.5 13.2 11.0 10/9/2015 13:00 11.727 14.388 10 13.3 15.3 10/9/2015 19:00 14.471 17.55 10.3 12.9 18.8 165 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/10/2015 1:00 16.454 19.792 9.4 11.8 21.4 10/10/2015 7:00 19.799 22.588 14.3 14.9 25.7 10/10/2015 13:00 24.566 32.459 21.6 48.8 31.7 10/10/2015 19:00 29.994 41.636 28.2 50.9 38.6 10/11/2015 1:00 34.121 48.431 27.9 49.1 43.8 10/11/2015 7:00 37.017 53.388 26.8 47.3 47.5 10/11/2015 13:00 38.895 56.941 25.4 46.3 50.0 10/11/2015 19:00 39.995 58.901 23.9 42.2 51.5 10/12/2015 1:00 40.33 59.572 21.9 39.4 52.0 10/12/2015 7:00 40.117 59.697 20.6 37.1 51.9 10/12/2015 13:00 39.516 59.465 19.3 35.9 51.3 10/12/2015 19:00 38.536 58.8 17.7 34.7 50.2 10/13/2015 1:00 37.245 57.492 16.3 31.9 48.6 10/13/2015 7:00 35.738 55.642 14.9 29.3 46.8 10/13/2015 13:00 34.092 53.415 13.7 26.9 40.2 10/13/2015 19:00 32.368 50.939 12.6 24.7 36.0 10/14/2015 1:00 30.614 48.316 11.5 22.7 23.8 10/14/2015 7:00 28.864 45.625 10.6 20.8 22.3 10/14/2015 13:00 27.147 42.928 9.7 19.1 20.8 10/14/2015 19:00 25.482 40.271 8.9 17.5 19.5 10/15/2015 1:00 23.884 37.688 8.2 16.1 18.3 10/15/2015 7:00 22.362 35.203 7.5 14.8 17.1 10/15/2015 13:00 20.922 32.833 6.9 13.6 16.1 10/15/2015 19:00 19.567 30.589 6.3 12.5 15.1 10/16/2015 1:00 18.297 28.476 5.8 11.4 14.2 10/16/2015 7:00 17.113 26.497 5.3 10.4 13.4 10/16/2015 13:00 16.011 24.652 4.9 9.5 8.0 10/16/2015 19:00 14.989 22.936 4.5 8.8 6.0 10/17/2015 1:00 14.043 21.347 4.1 8 5.0 10/17/2015 7:00 13.17 19.878 3.8 7.4 4.0 10/17/2015 13:00 12.364 18.524 3.5 6.8 3.0 10/17/2015 19:00 11.621 17.277 3.2 6.2 1.0 10/18/2015 0:00 11.047 16.315 3 5.8 1.0 10/18/2015 7:00 10.308 15.079 2.7 5.2 1.0 10/18/2015 13:00 9.73 14.114 2.5 4.8 1.0 10/18/2015 19:00 9.197 13.229 2.3 4.4 1.0 166 Bảng 2.13. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Krông Hnăng sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2015 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/30/2016 19:00 0.066 0.089 0.2 0.7 0.1 10/31/2016 1:00 0.136 0.249 0.3 1.4 0.1 10/31/2016 7:00 0.228 1.821 0.4 3.1 0.2 10/31/2016 13:00 0.394 5.258 1.5 6.9 0.4 10/31/2016 19:00 2.131 9.546 4.2 10.5 2.2 11/1/2016 1:00 5.304 14.797 7 14.4 5.4 11/1/2016 7:00 13.952 27.956 25.5 43.1 13.9 11/1/2016 13:00 29.876 59.231 63.8 130.2 38.0 11/1/2016 19:00 51.495 125.992 109.7 219.8 65.6 11/2/2016 1:00 88.655 211.722 169 287.5 112.5 11/2/2016 7:00 142.558 318.919 218.1 363.7 181.6 11/2/2016 13:00 225.637 491.866 297.9 500.9 290.6 11/2/2016 19:00 315.244 640.562 362.2 607.2 409.5 11/3/2016 1:00 394.927 717.011 412.2 655.6 515.9 11/3/2016 7:00 450.193 807.504 444.5 737.7 589.8 11/3/2016 13:00 477.295 775.047 461.5 740.1 626.1 11/3/2016 19:00 478.461 695.308 464.5 698.5 627.7 11/4/2016 1:00 466.565 623.347 463.8 669.2 611.9 11/4/2016 7:00 425.12 543.3 432.3 629.7 556.7 11/4/2016 13:00 378.665 461.532 396 571.3 495.1 11/4/2016 19:00 333.454 403.946 355.4 518.3 435.3 11/5/2016 1:00 303.344 398.614 330 514.3 395.9 11/5/2016 7:00 268.035 368.47 302.4 486.8 349.6 11/5/2016 13:00 248.075 329.253 281.9 446.9 323.9 11/5/2016 19:00 227.638 381.895 258.9 493.3 297.4 11/6/2016 1:00 239.939 369.217 278.5 477.1 277.5 11/6/2016 7:00 224.898 335.276 258.8 438 251.4 11/6/2016 13:00 205.013 299.169 237.5 402 226.9 11/6/2016 19:00 185.749 265.091 218 369 207.3 11/7/2016 1:00 173.686 234.516 200.2 338.7 195.1 11/7/2016 7:00 164.465 207.784 183.7 310.9 169.0 11/7/2016 13:00 154.987 190.505 168.7 285.4 157.5 11/7/2016 19:00 145.473 178.402 154.8 262 142.9 11/8/2016 1:00 136.093 166.58 142.1 240.5 132.7 11/8/2016 7:00 126.972 155.17 130.4 220.8 116.9 167 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/8/2016 13:00 118.199 144.263 119.7 202.7 105.5 11/8/2016 19:00 109.836 133.919 109.9 186 97.7 11/9/2016 1:00 101.923 124.174 100.9 170.8 90.4 11/9/2016 7:00 94.482 115.043 92.6 156.7 83.7 11/9/2016 13:00 87.521 106.529 81.6 143.5 77.6 11/9/2016 19:00 81.038 98.623 74.9 131.7 71.9 11/10/2016 0:00 75.994 92.486 69.7 122.6 67.6 11/10/2016 7:00 69.464 84.557 63.1 111 62.0 11/10/2016 13:00 64.337 78.347 57.9 101.9 57.7 11/10/2016 19:00 59.622 72.647 53.2 93.5 53.8 Bảng 2.14. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Sông Hinh sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2013 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/13/2013 7:00 0.014 0.015 0 0 0.0 11/13/2013 13:00 0.311 0.388 0.1 0.4 0.0 11/13/2013 19:00 0.792 1.157 0.2 1.2 0.0 11/14/2013 1:00 1.34 8.977 0.7 9 1.0 11/14/2013 7:00 1.939 41.704 1.6 41.7 2.0 11/14/2013 13:00 2.693 68.667 4.7 68.7 4.9 11/14/2013 19:00 20.414 104.743 39.1 104.7 22.6 11/15/2013 1:00 67.365 236.665 128.1 236.7 77.8 11/15/2013 7:00 245.392 428.09 287.8 428.1 238.7 11/15/2013 13:00 462.987 522.334 408.6 522.3 393.5 11/15/2013 19:00 498.565 569.006 440.6 569 423.0 11/16/2013 1:00 521.038 533.471 494.4 533.5 447.8 11/16/2013 7:00 379.275 366.238 380.4 366.2 420.0 11/16/2013 13:00 330.638 285.815 358.2 285.8 395.0 11/16/2013 19:00 301.54 299.071 327.6 299.1 365.0 11/17/2013 1:00 331.21 349.005 366.1 349 320.0 11/17/2013 7:00 319.766 270.011 330.9 270 311.0 11/17/2013 13:00 275.12 203.569 287.6 203.6 291.9 11/17/2013 19:00 204.724 152.931 212.7 152.9 214.3 11/18/2013 1:00 149.477 140.107 178.9 140.1 154.3 11/18/2013 7:00 125.688 130.345 150.4 130.3 127.7 11/18/2013 13:00 104.625 119.624 126.5 119.6 106.0 168 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/18/2013 19:00 89.958 114.997 113.7 115 90.9 11/19/2013 1:00 81.173 119.979 110.1 120 81.9 11/19/2013 7:00 71.512 114.72 92.6 114.7 72.1 11/19/2013 13:00 61.213 101.185 77.8 101.2 61.6 11/19/2013 19:00 51.813 85.695 65.5 85.7 52.1 11/20/2013 1:00 43.858 71.174 55 71.2 44.0 11/20/2013 7:00 37.406 58.746 45.6 58.7 37.4 11/20/2013 13:00 32.3 48.64 38.4 48.6 32.3 11/20/2013 19:00 28.315 40.67 32.3 40.7 28.2 11/21/2013 1:00 25.217 34.501 27.1 34.5 25.1 11/21/2013 7:00 22.803 29.774 22.8 29.8 22.6 11/21/2013 13:00 20.906 26.163 19.2 26.2 20.7 11/21/2013 19:00 19.391 23.396 16.1 23.4 19.2 11/22/2013 1:00 18.16 21.256 13.6 21.3 18.0 11/22/2013 7:00 17.134 19.578 11.4 19.6 16.9 Bảng 2.15. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Sông Hinh sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2014 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/27/2014 7:00 0.014 0.014 0 0 0.0 11/27/2014 13:00 0.291 0.291 0 0 0.3 11/27/2014 19:00 0.715 0.703 0 0 0.7 11/28/2014 1:00 1.149 1.1 0.1 0 1.1 11/28/2014 7:00 1.53 1.444 0.1 0.1 1.5 11/28/2014 13:00 1.827 1.752 0.1 0.3 1.8 11/28/2014 19:00 2.033 2.085 0.1 1.3 2.0 11/29/2014 1:00 2.157 2.518 0 2.3 2.2 11/29/2014 7:00 2.214 3.035 0.2 2.5 2.2 11/29/2014 13:00 2.409 3.578 5.8 4.3 2.5 11/29/2014 19:00 17.691 17.567 37.3 31.5 20.0 11/30/2014 1:00 48.462 35.965 74.4 40.7 57.4 11/30/2014 7:00 63.613 46.301 52 35.5 74.4 11/30/2014 13:00 70.712 51.548 56 37.9 83.2 11/30/2014 19:00 78.967 70.242 72.2 89.5 94.4 12/1/2014 1:00 97.334 121.892 113.5 158.6 114.0 169 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 12/1/2014 7:00 124.289 158.492 128.8 155.5 150.3 12/1/2014 13:00 179.828 200.949 190.3 199.5 231.8 12/1/2014 19:00 229.628 256.722 229.6 257.1 305.2 12/2/2014 1:00 296.665 319.001 286.7 303.4 246.4 12/2/2014 7:00 222.325 232.569 174.6 181.5 163.6 12/2/2014 13:00 150.234 154.837 122 128.8 126.0 12/2/2014 19:00 120.527 122.602 102.6 108.3 96.0 12/3/2014 1:00 95.863 97.259 86.2 91.1 75.2 12/3/2014 7:00 75.427 76.39 69.1 73.1 59.1 12/3/2014 13:00 59.208 59.896 58.1 61.5 42.5 12/3/2014 19:00 46.69 47.201 48.9 51.7 34.1 12/4/2014 1:00 37.207 37.603 41.1 43.5 27.9 12/4/2014 7:00 30.107 30.43 34.5 36.6 23.3 12/4/2014 13:00 24.827 25.101 29 30.7 19.8 12/4/2014 19:00 20.908 21.149 24.4 25.9 17.3 12/5/2014 1:00 17.99 18.208 20.5 21.7 10.0 Bảng 2.16. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Sông Hinh sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2015 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/7/2015 7:00 0.014 0.014 0 0 0.0 10/7/2015 13:00 0.299 0.3 0 0 0.3 10/7/2015 19:00 0.733 0.77 0 0.3 0.7 10/8/2015 1:00 1.155 1.302 0 0.4 1.2 10/8/2015 7:00 1.501 1.835 0 0.9 1.5 10/8/2015 13:00 1.778 2.396 0.2 2.2 1.8 10/8/2015 19:00 2.006 2.984 0.1 3.2 2.0 10/9/2015 1:00 2.167 15.467 0.1 28.9 5.0 10/9/2015 7:00 2.289 25.036 0.4 20 5.5 10/9/2015 13:00 2.427 28.101 0.8 15.9 6.3 10/9/2015 19:00 2.58 27.527 0.6 12.2 8.9 10/10/2015 1:00 2.71 25.051 0.7 10.8 16.7 10/10/2015 7:00 2.927 26.135 5.6 20.4 24.5 170 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/10/2015 13:00 13.765 53.947 31 98.1 32.3 10/10/2015 19:00 31.16 69.14 42 63.5 42.6 10/11/2015 1:00 38.532 69.396 26.7 48 52.9 10/11/2015 7:00 38.067 63.986 18.7 39.1 52.4 10/11/2015 13:00 34.33 57.117 15.7 32.9 47.4 10/11/2015 19:00 29.662 49.043 13.2 27.7 41.2 10/12/2015 1:00 25.204 40.975 11.1 25 35.2 10/12/2015 7:00 21.452 34.687 10 25.8 30.2 10/12/2015 13:00 18.38 30.827 8.4 25.6 26.0 10/12/2015 19:00 15.938 27.86 7.2 22.8 22.7 10/13/2015 1:00 14.048 24.762 6.3 19.2 17.9 10/13/2015 7:00 12.597 21.743 5.3 16.1 16.4 10/13/2015 13:00 11.473 19.08 4.4 13.6 13.1 10/13/2015 19:00 10.588 16.846 3.7 11.4 12.5 10/14/2015 1:00 9.877 15.022 3.1 9.5 11.9 10/14/2015 7:00 9.292 13.551 2.6 8 11.4 10/14/2015 13:00 8.795 12.367 2.2 6.7 10.9 10/14/2015 19:00 8.364 11.408 1.8 5.6 10.5 10/15/2015 1:00 7.978 10.619 1.6 4.7 10.0 10/15/2015 7:00 7.626 9.958 1.3 4 8.7 10/15/2015 13:00 7.298 9.394 1.1 3.4 8.3 10/15/2015 19:00 6.988 8.899 0.9 2.8 7.9 10/16/2015 1:00 6.692 8.456 0.8 2.4 7.6 10/16/2015 7:00 6.406 8.052 0.7 2 4.8 10/16/2015 13:00 6.129 7.676 0.5 1.7 4.5 10/16/2015 19:00 5.858 7.322 0.5 1.4 4.3 10/17/2015 1:00 5.593 6.984 0.4 1.2 4.1 10/17/2015 7:00 5.333 6.659 0.3 1 3.8 10/17/2015 13:00 5.078 6.344 0.3 0.8 3.6 10/17/2015 19:00 4.826 6.038 0.2 0.7 3.6 10/18/2015 1:00 4.579 5.74 0.2 0.6 3.7 10/18/2015 7:00 4.336 5.447 0.2 0.5 3.8 10/18/2015 13:00 4.096 5.161 0.1 0.4 3.8 10/18/2015 19:00 3.859 4.879 0.1 0.4 3.8 171 Bảng 2.17. Kết quả thực đo và dự báo dòng chảy đến hồ Sông Hinh sử dụng số liệu mưa độ phân giải ô lưới 14x14km và 5x5km năm 2016 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 10/30/2016 7:00 0.014 0.015 0 0 0.0 10/30/2016 13:00 0.313 0.368 0.1 0.8 0.3 10/30/2016 19:00 0.845 1.072 0.8 2.7 0.8 10/31/2016 1:00 1.482 1.958 0.7 2.9 1.4 10/31/2016 7:00 2.081 11.255 0.7 20.5 2.0 10/31/2016 13:00 2.691 39.828 4.4 68.7 2.6 10/31/2016 19:00 10.018 97.868 16.9 163.7 9.0 11/1/2016 1:00 22.823 332.261 29.6 371.9 21.1 11/1/2016 7:00 67.041 559.707 139.9 516.7 63.1 11/1/2016 13:00 253.44 769.461 317.9 713 268.6 11/1/2016 19:00 466.82 721.436 440.5 724.8 523.1 11/2/2016 1:00 582.383 574.606 544 665.6 626.0 11/2/2016 7:00 591.421 661.568 600.2 768.7 647.0 11/2/2016 13:00 660.184 637.835 705.1 734.9 721.4 11/2/2016 19:00 687.911 566.022 749.4 666.2 751.1 11/3/2016 1:00 696.24 509.953 781.8 633.5 749.6 11/3/2016 7:00 644.945 656.731 752.3 778 721.1 11/3/2016 13:00 582.074 527.6 705.9 602.6 668.4 11/3/2016 19:00 491.899 309.353 606.4 358.8 569.3 11/4/2016 1:00 396.439 189.516 486.2 297.5 458.0 11/4/2016 7:00 254.267 145.341 329.8 250.1 293.1 11/4/2016 13:00 168.73 121.299 277.4 210.3 168.8 11/4/2016 19:00 135.674 100.743 234.1 176.9 135.5 11/5/2016 1:00 125.436 85.744 242.8 165.2 124.7 11/5/2016 7:00 115.235 83.071 214.9 188.6 114.2 11/5/2016 13:00 137.326 80.106 318.4 161 102.2 11/5/2016 19:00 167.542 82.277 333.6 187.1 82.2 11/6/2016 1:00 318.63 154.619 511.5 385.3 66.3 11/6/2016 7:00 264.201 165.151 342.9 306.9 54.1 11/6/2016 13:00 181.16 137.427 288.3 258.1 44.9 11/6/2016 19:00 140.045 119.366 242.5 217 37.9 11/7/2016 1:00 113.707 100.125 203.9 182.5 32.7 172 Thời gian Mô hình Nam 15km Mô hình Nam 5km Mô hình Hec l5km Mô hình Hec 5km Thực đo 11/7/2016 7:00 91.534 82.63 164.9 147.6 28.8 11/7/2016 13:00 73.735 67.915 138.7 124.1 25.8 11/7/2016 19:00 59.87 56.081 116.6 104.4 23.5 11/8/2016 1:00 49.277 46.827 98 87.8 21.8 11/8/2016 7:00 41.28 39.712 82.4 73.8 20.4 11/8/2016 13:00 35.28 34.291 69.3 62.1 19.2 11/8/2016 19:00 30.781 30.173 58.3 52.2 18.3 11/9/2016 1:00 27.392 27.035 49 43.9 17.5 11/9/2016 7:00 24.814 24.621 41.2 36.9 16.7 11/9/2016 13:00 22.825 22.739 34.7 31 16.1 11/9/2016 19:00 21.259 21.244 29.1 26.1 15.5 11/10/2016 1:00 19.998 20.027 24.5 21.9 14.9 11/10/2016 7:00 18.954 19.012 20.6 18.5 14.4 11/10/2016 13:00 18.066 18.144 17.3 15.5 13.9 11/10/2016 19:00 17.292 17.381 14.6 13 13.4 11/11/2016 1:00 16.6 16.696 12.3 11 12.9 11/11/2016 7:00 15.968 16.068 10.3 9.2 12.4 11/11/2016 13:00 15.382 15.485 8.7 7.8 12.0 11/11/2016 19:00 14.832 14.935 7.3 6.5 11.6 11/12/2016 1:00 14.309 14.412 6.1 5.5 11.2 11/12/2016 7:00 13.809 13.912 5.2 4.6 10.8 11/12/2016 13:00 13.328 13.43 4.3 3.9 13.1 11/12/2016 19:00 12.863 12.964 3.6 3.3 12.7 11/13/2016 1:00 12.412 12.513 3.1 2.7 12.2 11/13/2016 7:00 11.975 12.074 2.6 2.3 11.8 11/13/2016 13:00 11.55 11.648 2.2 1.9 11.4 11/13/2016 19:00 11.14 11.237 1.8 1.6 11.0