Nâng cao hiệu quả sử dụng vốn kinh doanh của doanh nghiệp xây dựng ở Việt Nam hiện nay

1.592% 2008:Q4 1.541% 2009:Q1 1.313% 1.624% 2009:Q2 1.253% 1.565% 2009:Q3 1.398% 1.515% 1.106% 2009:Q4 1.041% 1.120% 0.426% 2010:Q1 2.454% 0.665% 1.530% 0.978% 0.656% 0.598% 2010:Q2 2.246% 0.742% 1.206% 1.005% 0.253% 0.964% 0.578% 2010:Q3 1.393% 0.033% 0.862% 1.086% 0.341% 0.946% 0.260% 2010:Q4 0.962% 0.435% 1.150% 0.670% 0.494% 1.059% 0.488% 2011:Q1 1.425% 0.731% 1.251% 1.141% 0.380% 1.215% 0.691% 2011:Q2 1.386% 0.867% 0.911% 1.095% 0.194% 1.250% 0.755% 2011:Q3 1.223% 1.016% 0.531% 1.392% 0.722% 1.371% 0.778% 2011:Q4 1.127% 0.621% 0.444% 1.297% 0.443% 1.413% 0.976% 2012:Q1 0.455% -0.646% -1.095% 1.276% 0.242% 1.082% -0.738% 2012:Q2 -0.331% -0.628% -1.812% -0.701% 0.742% 2.579% -2.234% 2012:Q3 -1.183% -1.208% -5.096% -2.961% -0.446% -0.397% -4.914% 2012:Q4 -1.448% -1.939% -8.289% -9.220% 0.820% 4.065% -9.080% WACC_ WACC_ WACC_ WACC_ WACC_ WACC_ WACC_ Thời kỳ VC2 VC3 VC5 HBC HLC HT1 HU1 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 1.444% 0.380% 2008:Q3 -0.063% 2.010% 0.927% 2008:Q4 1.170% 1.458% 0.689% 2009:Q1 0.736% 1.881% 0.711% 2009:Q2 1.201% 1.631% 0.672% 2009:Q3 1.162% 1.508% 0.616% 2009:Q4 0.857% 1.320% 0.493% 2010:Q1 0.567% 1.018% 0.487% 59.056% 230.678% 58.471% 201.559% 2010:Q2 0.664% 0.772% 0.480% 111.351% 270.379% 138.793% 187.207% 2010:Q3 0.834% 0.759% 0.168% 169.110% 554.793% 226.859% 174.541% 2010:Q4 0.514% 0.920% 0.409% -4.488% 330.788% 132.360% 300.024% 2011:Q1 0.550% 0.484% 0.437% 83.188% 389.981% 248.303% 281.607% 2011:Q2 0.547% 0.557% 0.443% 161.689% 47.523% 222.562% 233.248% 2011:Q3 0.517% 0.386% 0.616% 139.475% 465.391% 229.822% 318.074% 2011:Q4 0.705% 0.468% 0.543% 177.256% 153.125% 220.427% 121.829% 2012:Q1 0.645% 0.053% 1.029% 148.000% 385.273% 231.110% 108.988% 2012:Q2 -0.101% 0.902% 2.053% 175.932% 47.875% 210.885% 104.194% 2012:Q3 0.250% 0.756% 9.162% 86.319% 655.959% 190.812% 80.282% 2012:Q4 0.255% 1.878% 40.390% 100.562% 416.801% 237.483% 67.577% 222 Thời kỳ WACC_S99 WACC_SD2 WACC_SD3 WACC_SD5 WACC_SD6 WACC_SD7 WACC_SD9 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 128.500% 10.788% 288.893% 51.025% 101.344% 6.082% 61.805% 2010:Q2 29.134% 80.379% 253.567% 190.613% 55.282% 95.347% 242.041% 2010:Q3 40.982% 82.442% 318.450% 315.418% 160.374% 167.377% 416.670% 2010:Q4 23.148% 40.750% 303.653% 186.314% 27.355% 121.119% 223.584% 2011:Q1 68.642% 7.154% 240.585% 53.879% 45.918% 220.962% 162.396% 2011:Q2 108.602% 43.974% 214.836% 58.804% -42.366% 231.877% 226.124% 2011:Q3 109.195% 36.151% 226.454% 70.014% 168.591% 30.603% 182.775% 2011:Q4 125.655% 75.187% 205.256% 342.040% 65.456% 27.465% 170.544% 2012:Q1 66.097% 42.841% 217.725% 119.461% 47.475% 80.804% 169.183% 2012:Q2 -46.260% 82.562% 221.978% 121.289% 40.516% 151.622% 209.431% 2012:Q3 -49.322% 33.881% 302.857% 148.578% 131.092% 21.860% 124.127% 2012:Q4 26.473% 55.362% 328.033% 166.498% 19.502% 92.158% 133.993% Thời kỳ WACC_SDH WACC_SDT WACC_SIC WACC_SJE WACC_VC7 WACC_VC9 WACC_VCG 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 144.043% -42.822% 19.185% 162.168% 124.078% 0.000% 96.726% 2010:Q2 -5055.664% -21.377% 24.066% 140.748% 106.815% 1088.558% 96.467% 2010:Q3 -422.469% 28.184% 87.659% 129.925% -150.101% 25.873% 143.279% 2010:Q4 8.193% -15.756% 263.591% 129.569% 99.069% 113.110% 98.650% 2011:Q1 -26.061% 2.052% -9.403% 95.838% -68.582% 93.661% 134.065% 2011:Q2 -37.643% 3.427% 99.595% 125.615% -65.149% 75.212% 59.921% 2011:Q3 -138.784% -3.303% 60.708% 80.748% 68.582% 89.004% 239.392% 2011:Q4 -1.514% 31.032% 132.425% 54.067% -11.382% 84.173% 60.890% 2012:Q1 -88.002% 4.911% 102.677% 63.308% 679.240% 75.512% 98.019% 2012:Q2 -52.614% -11.043% 82.840% 69.235% 60.038% 49.699% 103.563% 2012:Q3 -6.947% 80.097% 52591.040% 5.022% -200.290% 35.253% 65.850% 2012:Q4 -11.664% 67.655% 23282.010% -2.240% 221.674% 60.135% 101.015% 223 Thời kỳ WACC_VCH WACC_VE1 WACC_VE2 WACC_B82 WACC_CDC WACC_CIC WACC_CID 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 0.915% -9.769% -0.999% 0.606% 2008:Q4 0.764% -13.980% -3.476% -5.996% 2009:Q1 -0.228% -15.878% -3.239% -4.933% 2009:Q2 0.064% -1.711% -0.502% -1.563% 2009:Q3 0.636% 0.741% 0.627% 0.889% 2009:Q4 0.261% -0.477% -0.125% -0.223% 2010:Q1 -1.833% 0.903% -0.395% 0.013% -0.107% 2010:Q2 141.598% 11.877% 675.527% 1.051% -0.057% 0.384% 0.005% 2010:Q3 77.693% -3.306% 33.571% 0.879% -0.907% -0.028% -0.628% 2010:Q4 90.649% -17.068% 7.905% 1.038% -0.335% 0.202% -0.143% 2011:Q1 99.288% 14.003% 632.670% 0.830% -0.805% 0.120% -0.345% 2011:Q2 157.244% 46.774% 282.844% 1.448% -0.732% -0.105% -0.611% 2011:Q3 218.684% 27.752% 201.156% 1.354% -0.806% 0.432% -0.634% 2011:Q4 247.585% 119.179% 473.061% 1.779% -1.948% -0.387% -0.638% 2012:Q1 163.114% 16.939% 30.767% 1.091% -0.818% -0.071% -0.121% 2012:Q2 265.840% 14.551% 104.512% 0.999% -0.668% -0.033% -0.180% 2012:Q3 234.538% -6.401% 102.510% 1.586% -1.256% -0.524% -0.299% 2012:Q4 268.025% 30.365% 91.474% 2.176% -0.807% -0.493% -0.225% Thời kỳ WACC_CII WACC_CTN WACC_VE9 WACC_VMC WACC_VNE WACC_CNT WACC_STL 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 -1.949% -1.383% -4.063% -3.524% 0.035% 2008:Q4 -4.625% -1.020% -11.505% -6.948% -0.597% 2009:Q1 -4.098% -1.178% -11.554% -6.788% -1.455% -9.123% -7.732% 2009:Q2 0.645% 0.207% 0.186% -0.557% 0.437% 0.875% 0.460% 2009:Q3 1.213% 0.887% 1.869% 0.486% 1.809% 2.165% 1.148% 2009:Q4 0.513% 0.388% 0.971% -0.262% 1.033% 1.151% 0.421% 2010:Q1 0.292% 0.681% 0.238% -0.018% 0.560% 0.940% 1.076% 2010:Q2 0.646% 1.803% -0.074% 0.130% 2.164% 2.556% 0.973% 2010:Q3 2.171% 0.471% 1.843% 1.130% 2.020% 3.708% 0.733% 2010:Q4 1.000% 0.614% 0.479% -0.021% 0.956% 2.451% 0.669% 2011:Q1 0.197% 1.123% -0.026% 0.619% -0.235% 1.591% 1.368% 2011:Q2 -0.087% 1.087% -0.994% 0.734% -0.275% 2.133% 1.417% 2011:Q3 -0.081% 1.045% -1.132% 0.116% 0.345% 2.014% 1.469% 2011:Q4 -0.349% 0.761% -2.167% 2.907% -0.959% 2.020% 1.273% 2012:Q1 1.131% -0.178% -0.890% 0.600% 0.195% 1.806% 0.217% 2012:Q2 0.348% -0.199% -0.609% 0.708% -1.064% 2.066% 0.073% 2012:Q3 2.725% 1.445% -0.870% 0.320% 0.637% 2.462% -0.042% 2012:Q4 0.301% 0.161% -0.414% 0.340% 1.057% 3.111% 0.408% 224 Thời kỳ WACC_CSC WACC_TDC WACC_ASM WACC_BCE WACC_C92 WACC_CSC WACC_CTD 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 -6.843% 1.152% -6.843% 2010:Q3 -2.101% 3.648% 2.704% -2.101% -4.895% 2010:Q4 -0.081% 1.714% 3.375% -2.156% 1.142% -0.081% -0.250% 2011:Q1 -0.534% 1.116% 7.308% -3.256% 1.104% -0.534% -1.294% 2011:Q2 0.349% 3.541% 3.514% -3.226% -0.266% 0.349% -1.716% 2011:Q3 0.500% 1.114% 2.806% -4.234% 2.252% 0.500% -2.578% 2011:Q4 -0.644% -1.339% -0.707% -3.128% 0.691% -0.644% -0.898% 2012:Q1 -0.181% -0.876% 2.163% -1.485% 1.004% -0.181% -0.790% 2012:Q2 0.191% -0.728% 1.787% -1.557% 0.883% 0.191% -1.195% 2012:Q3 -0.265% -0.908% 1.890% -1.993% 0.065% -0.265% -1.409% 2012:Q4 -0.164% -0.657% 2.603% -1.490% 1.672% -0.164% -0.970% Thời kỳ WACC_DC2 WACC_TDC WACC_TV1 WACC_VE3 WACC_VHH 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 1.714% 13.379% 2011:Q1 1.884% 1.116% 2.134% 17.251% 1.625% 2011:Q2 3.917% 3.541% 3.856% 18.358% 4.310% 2011:Q3 3.795% 1.114% 3.218% 14.789% 4.228% 2011:Q4 3.736% -1.339% 1.918% 17.352% 1.671% 2012:Q1 0.883% -0.876% 0.734% 1.632% -0.196% 2012:Q2 1.249% -0.728% 1.717% 1.843% 0.068% 2012:Q3 0.507% -0.908% 1.524% 1.859% -0.846% 2012:Q4 1.439% -0.657% 0.933% 1.285% -0.720% 225 Phụ lục 09 BẢNG THỐNG KÊ KẾT QUẢ ƯỚC LƯỢNG Mã Mô hình ước lượng cổ phiếu D(WACC_ASM,1) = 0.4117052328*D(WACC_ASM(-1),1) + ASM 0.7449473836*D(WACC_ASM(-2),1) - 4.700598692*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.889574003*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.1079194845 D(WACC_B82,1) = - 1.902500396*D(WACC_B82(-1),1) - 1.681622403*D(WACC_B82(-2),1) - 2.155497977*D(WACC_B82(-3),1) - 1.696583059*D(WACC_B82(-4),1) - 1.218867089*D(WACC_B82(-5),1) - B82 0.3181942107*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.5599156304*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.1001509273*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.2134588709*R_VNINDEX(-4) - 0.03012601278*R_VNINDEX(-5) + 0.01417736896 D(WACC_BCE,1) = - 1.004387095*D(WACC_BCE(-1),1) + BCE 0.3121678448*D(WACC_BCE(-2),1) - 2.503698266*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.749512691*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.05744564485 D(WACC_C92,1) = - 1.056120439*D(WACC_C92(-1),1) - C92 0.5326088779*D(WACC_C92(-2),1) - 0.8281852385*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.2881726677*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.01762125717 D(WACC_CDC,1) = 0.18805208*D(WACC_CDC(-1),1) - CDC 0.4360482969*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.005224828099 WACC_CIC = 0.2809536016*WACC_CIC(-1) + 2.970970695*WACC_CIC(-2) + 0.4561785629*WACC_CIC(-3) + 0.5875022483*WACC_CIC(-4) + CIC 0.971892922*WACC_CIC(-5) + 0.8352690918*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.6719293447*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.1072085283*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 0.1644884317*R_VNINDEX(-4) - 0.2248431685*R_VNINDEX(-5) - 0.003384583789 WACC_CID = - 0.03188952819*WACC_CID(-1) - 0.5322143322*WACC_CID(-2) + CID 0.2270411002*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.07834550083*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.002318215249 D(WACC_CII,1) = C(1,1)*D(WACC_CII(-1),1) + C(1,2)*D(WACC_CII(-2),1) + C(1,3)*D(WACC_CII(-3),1) + C(1,4)*D(WACC_CII(-4),1) + C(1,5)*D(WACC_CII(- CII 5),1) + C(1,6)*R_VNINDEX(-1) + C(1,7)*R_VNINDEX(-2) + C(1,8)*R_VNINDEX(-3) + C(1,9)*R_VNINDEX(-4) + C(1,10)*R_VNINDEX(-5) + C(1,11) D(WACC_CNT,1) = 0.3160305564*D(WACC_CNT(-1),1) - 0.3600541506*D(WACC_CNT(-2),1) + 0.02897832818*D(WACC_CNT(-3),1) + CNT 0.190803522*D(WACC_CNT(-4),1) + 0.2473456922*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.2710977169*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.2464046331*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.01894937023*R_VNINDEX(-4) - 0.002152772036 WACC_CSC = - 0.4211004149*WACC_CSC(-1) - 0.9625389182*WACC_CSC(-2) - CSC 0.1545408415*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) - 0.1045447195*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) - 0.00130763217 WACC_CTD = - 0.2125920545*WACC_CTD(-1) - 0.2729238523*R_VNINDEX(-1) - CTD 0.01946949967 D(WACC_CTN,1) = - 0.5440951195*D(WACC_CTN(-1),1) - CTN 0.5255318852*D(WACC_CTN(-2),1) + 0.01555620274*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.09290456512*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.0002312002702 D(WACC_DC2,2) = - 0.5350049024*D(WACC_DC2(-1),2) + DC2 2.517722845*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.03756844928 226 Mã Mô hình ước lượng cổ phiếu WACC_DLR = - 0.9774012438*WACC_DLR(-1) + 0.007945676981*WACC_DLR(-2) - DLR 0.7690221764*WACC_DLR(-3) - 1.274635911*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 4.234885011*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 6.194188116*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 3.094022197 D(WACC_HBC) = - 0.8410100258*D(WACC_HBC(-1)) - 0.8599572194*D(WACC_HBC(-2)) - 0.5441690058*D(WACC_HBC(-3)) - HBC 2.145601052*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 5.878950806*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 3.982086467*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 0.1245464377 WACC_HLC = 0.8991775419*WACC_HLC(-1) + 0.1798245694*WACC_HLC(-2) - 1.289201562*WACC_HLC(-3) + 1.474084087*WACC_HLC(-4) + HLC 14.68310591*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 5.843844398*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.662321757*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 1.84914377*R_VNINDEX(-4) + 0.1653118813 D(WACC_HT1) = - 0.5032100904*D(WACC_HT1(-1)) + HT1 0.8995143463*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.2320461036 D(WACC_HU1 = - 0.352461635*D(WACC_HU1(-1)) + HU1 0.09712188558*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.1600420597 D(WACC_HUT,2) = 0.01643055519*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) - 0.05925829717*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) - 0.06171058397*D(R_VNINDEX(-3),2) - HUT 1.139370605*D(WACC_HUT(-1),2) - 0.7186551646*D(WACC_HUT(-2),2) + 0.00188612815*D(WACC_HUT(-3),2) + 0.0004802287165 D(WACC_L10) = - 0.7882178166*D(WACC_L10(-1)) + L10 0.7312160497*D(WACC_L10(-2)) - 0.01989633459*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) + 0.01648145393*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) - 0.0001276857452 D(WACC_L18) = 0.1308121019*D(WACC_L18(-1)) + L18 0.3957392023*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) + 0.006045090295 D(WACC_LHC) = - 5.078724041*D(WACC_LHC(-1)) + LHC 12.02548835*D(WACC_LHC(-2)) + 1.545742659*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) - 0.6273550816*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) - 0.03883290452 D(WACC_LUT,2) = - 0.998101423*D(WACC_LUT(-1),2) - LUT 0.0009862545843*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) + 0.0001029450857 D(WACC_MCG,2) = - 1.969843472*D(WACC_MCG(-1),2) - MCG 0.6202609002*D(WACC_MCG(-2),2) + 0.008035100227*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) - 0.5326137738*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) + 0.001799045185 WACC_NSN = - 1.734614409*WACC_NSN(-1) + 2.165101322*WACC_NSN(-2) + NSN 0.1177548923*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) + 0.1821228477*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) + 0.00750627486 D(WACC_S96) = 0.3122020146*D(WACC_S96(-1)) - 0.5550713446*D(WACC_S96(- S96 2)) + 0.02084290996*D2_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.1383520389*D2_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.0022755709 D(WACC_S99) = 0.6536383644*D(WACC_S99(-1)) - 0.06498254656*D(WACC_S99(- S99 2)) - 0.5421384158*D(WACC_S99(-3)) + 1.33923243*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 4.489574211*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.828218728*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.1895677682 WACC_SD2 = 0.02863476133*WACC_SD2(-1) + 0.2242444764*WACC_SD2(-2) - 0.7452644262*WACC_SD2(-3) + 0.4288630897*WACC_SD2(-4) + SD2 0.4111930871*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.02087776355*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.5199205401*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.5681850261*R_VNINDEX(-4) + 0.5391558762 227 Mã Mô hình ước lượng cổ phiếu D(WACC_SD3,2) = - 1.035641349*D(WACC_SD3(-1),2) - SD3 0.7315706735*D(WACC_SD3(-2),2) - 2.516318646*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 4.417054441*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.3107166119 D(WACC_SD5) = - 0.3011785489*D(WACC_SD5(-1)) - 0.2780487506*D(WACC_SD5(-2)) - 1.343671124*D(WACC_SD5(-3)) + SD5 8.964786713*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 7.379027306*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 9.229852424*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.1693175368 WACC_SD6 = - 0.4456493588*WACC_SD6(-1) - 0.4509761039*WACC_SD6(-2) - SD6 0.9459223448*WACC_SD6(-3) + 3.537348543*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 2.031674922*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.3111924223*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 1.967315318 D(WACC_SD7) = 0.2601632054*D(WACC_SD7(-1)) - 1.079626131*D(WACC_SD7(- SD7 2)) + 0.8502639325*D(WACC_SD7(-3)) + 9.324839295*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 1.633391137*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 7.139784586*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.4092245924 D(WACC_SD9) = 0.05650542549*D(WACC_SD9(-1)) - SD9 0.6140824279*D(WACC_SD9(-2)) + 2.062915133*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.096066674*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.02912965742 WACC_SDH = - 0.3219793455*WACC_SDH(-1) + 0.1537044464*WACC_SDH(-2) - 0.1494242652*WACC_SDH(-3) - 0.02669654864*WACC_SDH(-4) + SDH 6.954259057*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 17.87985699*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 19.9473747*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 74.37805314*R_VNINDEX(-4) - 4.607576976 D(WACC_SDT) = - 0.3343358137*D(WACC_SDT(-1)) - SDT 0.08787393214*D(WACC_SDT(-2)) + 1.530225106*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 2.823579*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.215211221 D(WACC_SIC) = 0.04189077834*D(WACC_SIC(-1)) - 78.67791823*D(WACC_SIC(- SIC 2)) - 24.56530397*D(WACC_SIC(-3)) + 793.7828807*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 980.0066553*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 1285.367424*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 54.05619402 D(WACC_SJE) = - 1.232544862*D(WACC_SJE(-1)) - 1.145866355*D(WACC_SJE(-2)) SJE + 0.1836759135*D(WACC_SJE(-3)) + 1.696323294*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.06636170543*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.9923897843*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 0.4195688986 D(WACC_STL,1) = 0.3864781793*D(WACC_STL(-1),1) - 0.4607083643*D(WACC_STL(-2),1) - 0.2826663039*D(WACC_STL(-3),1) - STL 0.2945493377*D(WACC_STL(-4),1) + 0.4658805157*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.1996863949*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.4695490475*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 0.1432126424*R_VNINDEX(-4) + 0.006898665596 D(WACC_TDC,1) = - 0.1401351807*D(WACC_TDC(-1),1) - TDC 0.2371327595*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) - 0.0034112149 D(WACC_TV1,1) = - 0.2222110044*D(WACC_TV1(-1),1) + TV1 1.120483862*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.01171483178 D(WACC_TV2,2) = - 0.6079546589*D(WACC_TV2(-1),2) + TV2 0.1326192329*D2_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.001182687913 D(WACC_TV3,2) = - 0.1248194453*D(WACC_TV3(-1),2) + TV3 0.4717666815*D(WACC_TV3(-2),2) + 0.03663768374*D2_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.2776718825*D2_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.00259343022 D(WACC_TV4,3) = - 1.549829191*D(WACC_TV4(-1),3) - TV4 0.9619497606*D(WACC_TV4(-2),3) - 0.2429102093*D2_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.060591705*D2_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.001231565245 WACC_V12 = - 0.4063909255*WACC_V12(-1) + 0.1471647902*WACC_V12(-2) - V12 0.02543981788*D2_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.1231978361*D2_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.005889467166 228 Mã Mô hình ước lượng cổ phiếu D(WACC_V15) = - 2.228374443*D(WACC_V15(-1)) - V15 0.06033272428*D(WACC_V15(-2)) + 0.08012923362*D2_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.009634346351*D2_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.002141268917 D(WACC_VC1,3) = - 0.9175792773*D(WACC_VC1(-1),3) - VC1 0.6769422694*D(WACC_VC1(-2),3) + 0.09927253263*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) - 0.1376864227*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) - 0.002904788586 D(WACC_VC2) = - 0.8259305869*D(WACC_VC2(-1)) - VC2 0.2741858464*D(WACC_VC2(-2)) - 0.05559825684*D(R_VNINDEX(-1),2) - 0.01546890478*D(R_VNINDEX(-2),2) - 0.0006531163815 D(WACC_VC3,2) = - 1.347355771*D(WACC_VC3(-1),2) - VC3 0.8299396204*D(WACC_VC3(-2),2) + 0.09559337067*D2_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.0102995693*D2_VNINDEX(-2) + 0.000184034884 D(WACC_VC5) = 3.754668442*D(WACC_VC5(-1)) + 4.342711462*D(WACC_VC5(- VC5 2)) + 2.045931202*D(WACC_VC5(-3)) + 0.08109349199*D2_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.107698281*D2_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.153077336*D2_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.001172578796 WACC_VC7 = 0.4411967409*WACC_VC7(-1) + 1.045649092*WACC_VC7(-2) - VC7 35.47998091*r_VNINDEX(-1) - 35.74099348*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 1.775859612 WACC_VC9 = 0.916802404*WACC_VC9(-1) + 0.07936172658*WACC_VC9(-2) - VC9 0.002448221987*WACC_VC9(-3) - 0.4343165018*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.3953180012*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.291059365*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 0.03610119173 WACC_VCG = - 0.4216800058*WACC_VCG(-1) + 0.149827982*WACC_VCG(-2) + VCG 0.06353902821*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.372406969*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.355274912 D(WACC_VCH) = - 0.2074934272*D(WACC_VCH(-1)) + VCH 2.817967599*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.3130367088 D(WACC_VE1) = - 0.4959188942*D(WACC_VE1(-1)) - 0.1409134872*D(WACC_VE1(-2)) - 0.3118132137*D(WACC_VE1(-3)) + VE1 0.1949585983*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.06650629791*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.4071929533*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 0.0375700847 D(WACC_VE2) = - 0.5666603167*D(WACC_VE2(-1)) - VE2 0.637924926*D(WACC_VE2(-2)) + 3.981151368*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 5.7169705*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.3597808356 D(WACC_VE3,2) = - 0.370059867*D(WACC_VE3(-1),2) + VE3 15.27851079*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.2240808275 WACC_VE9 = - 0.1458256416*WACC_VE9(-1) + 0.05953922528*WACC_VE9(-2) + VE9 0.7514776604*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 0.4436343592*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.001902945399 D(WACC_VHH,1) = - 0.0192823596*D(WACC_VHH(-1),1) + VHH 0.9751642576*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.006170119154 D(WACC_VMC,1) = 4.948813934*D(WACC_VMC(-1),1) - 4.601353355*D(WACC_VMC(-2),1) - 5.257465844*D(WACC_VMC(-3),1) - 5.666459008*D(WACC_VMC(-4),1) + 0.3346508124*D(WACC_VMC(-5),1) + VMC 13.68433453*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 10.02514266*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 2.895603142*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 3.917464483*R_VNINDEX(-4) - 0.7892588914*R_VNINDEX(-5) + 0.07074485624 D(WACC_VNE,2) = - 1.022114305*D(WACC_VNE(-1),2) - 0.9850468555*D(WACC_VNE(-2),2) - 0.8350248754*D(WACC_VNE(-3),2) - VNE 1.167323257*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 0.08328530783*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 0.2309083672*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 0.01397079271 229 Phụ lục 10 DỰ BÁO CHI PHÍ VỐN TRUNG BÌNH CHO CÁC CÔNG TY NĂM 2015 TT Thời kỳ 2015:Q1 2015:Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 1 WACC_ASM 2.107% 1.084% 0.332% 0.351% 2 WACC_B82 1.596% 2.612% 0.381% 0.494% 3 WACC_BCE -2.268% -1.777% -1.025% -0.825% 4 WACC_C92 0.060% 1.205% 0.538% 0.568% 5 WACC_CDC -0.733% -0.745% -0.730% -0.678% 6 WACC_CID -0.452% -0.585% -0.557% -0.472% 7 WACC_CII 2.269% 0.024% 2.757% -0.095% 8 WACC_CNT 3.323% 3.602% 3.611% 3.575% 9 WACC_CSC 0.101% -0.012% -0.149% -0.100% 10 WACC_CSC 0.101% -0.012% -0.149% -0.100% 11 WACC_CTD -1.421% -1.283% -1.317% -1.309% 12 WACC_CTN 0.096% 0.879% 0.527% 0.358% 13 WACC_DC2 2.280% 3.051% 3.916% 4.728% 14 WACC_HBC 178.137% 163.262% 141.204% 165.461% 15 WACC_HLC 1075.692% -81.249% 465.728% 380.133% 16 WACC_HT1 243.901% 251.987% 269.524% 277.385% 17 WACC_HU1 56.560% 44.099% 32.300% 20.251% 18 WACC_HUT 1.679% 2.488% 0.302% 4.098% 19 WACC_L10 -1.040% 2.071% -2.265% 3.680% 20 WACC_L18 8.358% 9.609% 10.241% 10.584% 21 WACC_LHC -2766.675% 18623.680% -125730.800% 848228.600% 22 WACC_LUT 3.818% 3.280% 4.304% 3.781% 23 WACC_MCG -17.269% 11.025% -64.353% 33.556% 24 WACC_NSN 6.225% -4.023% 22.408% -34.227% 25 WACC_S96 -1.964% -2.360% -2.850% -3.162% 26 WACC_S99 74.291% 109.574% 31.282% -29.370% 27 WACC_SD2 37.054% 80.194% 23.172% 77.475% 28 WACC_SD5 251.238% 221.889% 172.463% 192.526% 29 WACC_SD6 92.909% 30.413% 97.846% 50.868% 30 WACC_SD7 315.386% 175.757% 131.090% 235.917% 31 WACC_SD9 230.336% 212.770% 173.748% 199.819% 32 WACC_SDH -2141.348% 742.828% -720.726% -67.243% 33 WACC_SDT 47.414% 87.570% 90.833% 83.282% 34 WACC_SIC -1780001.000% 293918.900% 64259060.000% -45656500.000% 35 WACC_SJE -13.536% -35.049% -36.820% -52.154% 36 WACC_TDC -1.199% -1.353% -1.747% -1.986% 37 WACC_TV1 0.922% 0.288% 0.009% -0.460% 38 WACC_TV2 -2.216% -2.876% -3.437% -3.907% 39 WACC_TV3 -14.850% -22.174% -34.939% -49.775% 40 WACC_TV4 -17.598% -34.027% -56.722% -96.074% 41 WACC_V12 0.956% -0.916% 2.253% -0.921% 42 WACC_V15 1.974% -8.576% 35.654% -67.874% 43 WACC_VC1 -14.689% -20.664% -29.759% -39.681% 44 WACC_VC2 0.109% 0.097% 0.091% 0.034% 45 WACC_VC3 2.312% 3.976% 4.895% 7.395% 46 WACC_VC5 186.914% 868.412% 4039.619% 18797.710% 47 WACC_VC7 -213.468% 340.122% -68.994% 100.210% 48 WACC_VC9 43.469% 31.521% 37.843% 37.931% 49 WACC_VCG 113.171% 95.432% 118.998% 104.935% 50 WACC_VE1 21.183% 23.100% 20.907% 27.450% 51 WACC_VE2 125.694% 29.434% 41.729% 73.267% 52 WACC_VE3 5.428% 5.876% 7.860% 9.212% 53 WACC_VE9 -0.385% -0.473% -0.603% -0.637% 54 WACC_VHH -1.248% -2.168% -2.935% -3.720% 55 WACC_VMC 24.486% 308.635% 5020.356% 82417.530% 56 WACC_VNE 2.004% 1.984% 3.495% 4.265% 230 Phụ lục 11 KẾT QUẢ TÍNH NHU CẦU VỐN CHO Ở CÁC BẢNG SAU Đơn vị: tỷ đồng Mã CP ASM B82 BCE C92 CDC 2008:Q1 472.4823 73.73842 146.3666 59.65068 191.0815 2008:Q2 504.7775 74.25899 145.367 58.20448 218.9714 2008:Q3 0 69.06317 149.7588 56.7725 230.7818 2008:Q4 0 106.6473 148.2845 67.19728 283.2777 2009:Q1 0 78.01726 159.6881 53.15441 285.9147 2009:Q2 0 69.89456 197.9712 68.79531 283.6765 2009:Q3 881.3345 123.6442 207.0646 67.01753 451.464 2009:Q4 656.3764 155.3497 332.8166 88.86395 523.1793 2010:Q1 748.0597 92.2895 293.7181 74.16713 440.4481 2010:Q2 965.0436 126.0366 329.6028 87.94738 512.0765 2010:Q3 884.2282 137.5021 321.9804 100.9804 550.7004 2010:Q4 1156.722 165.6699 414.4861 183.8035 567.6244 2011:Q1 1315.217 145.7409 501.4893 145.6965 571.5115 2011:Q2 1275.947 165.9995 497.143 118.6125 573.061 2011:Q3 1408.581 178.8496 520.1882 137.4663 583.4774 2011:Q4 1304.975 215.6419 654.8833 166.5987 601.2276 2012:Q1 1525.434 199.3383 690.8196 147.6912 586.1646 2012:Q2 1589.333 205.269 564.6079 128.7966 611.6088 2012:Q3 1546.056 207.7521 629.7026 135.6122 626.6648 2012:Q4 1454.785 251.0087 638.6099 168.5621 641.1143 Mã CP CID CII CNT CSC CTD 2008:Q1 24.01688 1627.855 1128.466 0 0 2008:Q2 29.48491 1809.846 1099.625 0 923.7147 2008:Q3 23.69746 1825.523 934.1424 0 988.3229 2008:Q4 23.53925 1930.704 1092.695 130.062 996.4702 2009:Q1 28.84259 2204.788 1052.702 0 0 2009:Q2 26.22403 3308.118 1196.069 0 1046.385 2009:Q3 30.99517 3656.57 1266.891 0 1116.242 2009:Q4 26.54082 2490.589 1466.15 232.5574 1377.427 2010:Q1 17.19187 2410.224 1513.084 181.6782 1443.053 2010:Q2 18.08027 3013.265 1474.893 395.0057 1566.754 2010:Q3 17.22351 3229.653 1558.761 437.2122 1734.817 2010:Q4 16.74934 3461.238 1800.801 467.4333 1579.128 2011:Q1 17.623 4353.789 1890.845 481.9314 1554.537 2011:Q2 19.26715 4351.801 1887.606 523.2895 1669.915 2011:Q3 18.26591 4794.547 1818.358 538.4362 1624.084 2011:Q4 17.6869 4953.546 1833.816 633.4299 1933.364 2012:Q1 36.45799 4999.834 1798.647 560.4346 2261.829 2012:Q2 17.38461 5018.025 1774.182 633.1842 2515.797 2012:Q3 15.89102 5480.159 1738.389 651.8928 2599.59 2012:Q4 17.56672 6073.923 1683.439 657.8584 2840.295 231 Mã CP CTN DC2 HBC HLC HT1 2008:Q1 377.0792 0 779.2046 0 3058.392 2008:Q2 396.2093 0 811.5806 0 3761.186 2008:Q3 398.8865 0 964.6394 0 4241.632 2008:Q4 451.8881 0 1099.155 531.8748 5548.614 2009:Q1 446.4428 0 884.7173 520.2452 5945.158 2009:Q2 471.0845 0 1118.927 514.0018 6583.726 2009:Q3 494.5847 0 1130.909 594.8553 6970.995 2009:Q4 494.7155 0 1053.393 714.3963 7229.093 2010:Q1 372.2285 0 1053.498 808.3256 7651.587 2010:Q2 382.776 53.85408 1100.658 848.0945 11156.1 2010:Q3 411.4202 61.81533 1389.91 976.2317 11431.09 2010:Q4 466.2179 79.51236 1650.67 994.7796 11647.97 2011:Q1 442.2366 75.80534 1760.538 949.8179 11365.41 2011:Q2 465.1208 87.83774 2092.203 1016.922 12255.38 2011:Q3 456.6127 98.1612 2058.998 1094.788 12418.96 2011:Q4 471.0263 89.21791 2422.57 1198.696 12529.15 2012:Q1 509.3367 82.293 2291.037 1310.384 12329.53 2012:Q2 552.5763 86.77604 2414.153 1319.398 12683.6 2012:Q3 515.8361 85.84251 2864.774 1326.973 12613.22 2012:Q4 484.6344 92.71575 3271.952 1485.583 12958.62 Mã CP HU1 HUT L10 L18 LHC 2008:Q1 0 190.2643 185.6555 292.06 0 2008:Q2 0 154.829 192.7545 280.6874 0 2008:Q3 0 244.9056 202.3534 282.6822 0 2008:Q4 0 268.7836 231.4384 405.437 60.6483 2009:Q1 0 361.6775 217.9458 408.7057 0 2009:Q2 0 537.211 258.7642 462.8655 0 2009:Q3 0 784.9068 314.0312 454.8075 61.06152 2009:Q4 0 1139.475 343.0311 487.1158 127.7567 2010:Q1 622.1329 1490.473 379.7163 532.8009 82.21296 2010:Q2 0 1925.892 428.947 582.7168 86.77658 2010:Q3 0 2466.229 490.6797 613.2917 90.46266 2010:Q4 0 2930.508 578.5118 681.5753 100.2282 2011:Q1 0 3437.725 592.0429 656.6861 102.8056 2011:Q2 845.0966 3485.981 589.2205 718.3488 101.5296 2011:Q3 691.3947 3638.569 602.2746 740.4943 104.3222 2011:Q4 914.2454 3959.755 620.6308 779.7816 110.9629 2012:Q1 838.1351 3840.263 601.3242 761.2019 84.21026 2012:Q2 860.101 4217.869 454.6136 794.9171 89.89608 2012:Q3 864.3908 4150.343 588.7462 827.5652 95.49468 2012:Q4 877.5263 3915.534 650.9115 894.7626 96.86721 232 Mã CP LUT MCG NSN S96 S99 2008:Q1 116.7291 0 0 72.26338 95.02415 2008:Q2 128.5483 0 0 90.83672 110.6105 2008:Q3 124.0674 0 0 93.07252 115.6555 2008:Q4 148.2971 741.8638 0 110.7341 136.748 2009:Q1 126.6522 0 0 73.7299 139.826 2009:Q2 141.1705 854.4029 0 116.3298 130.047 2009:Q3 156.1989 918.2709 0 116.8369 139.5635 2009:Q4 157.6957 948.7907 0 77.38189 142.7281 2010:Q1 119.7088 1027.441 0 149.0275 135.144 2010:Q2 126.2956 1206.483 215.3965 152.8362 170.1688 2010:Q3 140.7642 1261.195 191.4776 185.1251 166.3437 2010:Q4 186.0299 1921.592 220.8918 202.3501 186.5163 2011:Q1 173.6834 1893.58 207.0298 213.5304 190.2402 2011:Q2 273.6286 1809.965 248.981 214.1616 204.7084 2011:Q3 264.7503 1984.796 221.7407 0 216.6958 2011:Q4 267.0904 2098.018 218.1097 167.2562 196.6655 2012:Q1 295.4105 1920.688 181.3024 124.9293 205.2373 2012:Q2 338.1773 2117.418 213.6899 146.2313 190.4641 2012:Q3 332.7491 2202.335 185.6475 145.6843 192.1685 2012:Q4 332.5733 2269.292 239.0488 144.254 190.7328 Mã CP SD2 SD5 SD6 SD7 SD9 2008:Q1 359.7898 801.7157 482.2021 654.8685 726.5136 2008:Q2 369.0182 886.5484 557.6451 743.0692 1064.507 2008:Q3 365.0961 842.9716 619.9382 685.6341 977.7448 2008:Q4 316.8312 577.0924 588.6453 659.3828 1024.669 2009:Q1 266.3038 865.0403 457.6072 743.4216 1020.508 2009:Q2 287.2439 714.5235 484.279 839.1266 1055.78 2009:Q3 331.5755 643.6629 505.0967 858.1897 1108.955 2009:Q4 350.9642 819.9244 649.5808 1093.008 1183.932 2010:Q1 346.8051 937.2123 496.2697 987.7772 1180.201 2010:Q2 345.8915 839.1664 560.1307 1210.75 1320.271 2010:Q3 374.5669 790.5984 594.825 1559.199 1536.904 2010:Q4 409.362 683.0813 605.7091 2070.242 1455.454 2011:Q1 481.0956 762.7532 608.7214 1574.729 1519.009 2011:Q2 505.5012 850.5014 675.2578 1679.191 1608.468 2011:Q3 584.5026 905.0773 727.9315 1726.319 1687.963 2011:Q4 570.5816 1049.193 793.1339 1821.919 1764.178 2012:Q1 523.2177 1181.319 801.4016 1815.314 1787.69 2012:Q2 632.1909 1319.019 822.9115 1998.715 1783.978 2012:Q3 651.1805 1334.562 914.506 1987.048 1767.718 2012:Q4 636.3054 1390.788 955.5442 1816.148 1806.314 233 Mã CP SDH SDT SIC SJE TDC 2008:Q1 0 664.708 317.9748 385.1602 0 2008:Q2 0 731.2205 338.1213 407.876 0 2008:Q3 0 753.7563 329.4313 365.8925 0 2008:Q4 140.2323 748.6357 335.4995 374.5302 0 2009:Q1 147.3905 606.2402 332.2779 395.9973 0 2009:Q2 163.9855 666.3737 350.3415 362.5195 0 2009:Q3 241.6831 804.6418 349.7084 650.3489 0 2009:Q4 294.436 1121.733 467.3171 752.9987 0 2010:Q1 262.8958 764.7161 454.7617 386.7859 630.5694 2010:Q2 433.0307 1038.335 526.4795 448.3751 648.8571 2010:Q3 453.2397 1171.401 541.2535 501.221 833.839 2010:Q4 448.409 1206.386 587.8461 533.4503 1370.945 2011:Q1 512.4459 1223.363 591.5752 523.7088 1941 2011:Q2 493.9804 1292.713 585.2565 590.0751 1759.389 2011:Q3 515.521 1339.748 575.3684 588.7996 1834.072 2011:Q4 518.543 1368.234 533.8357 593.3689 2040.208 2012:Q1 496.2105 1350.101 584.9907 579.171 1990.945 2012:Q2 497.8646 1380.44 614.1966 648.7463 2063.291 2012:Q3 512.02 1429.435 613.9064 583.0174 2181.426 2012:Q4 483.6052 1441.697 615.9222 612.9628 2645.579 Mã CP TV1 TV2 TV3 TV4 V12 2008:Q1 0 0 0 93.3098 0 2008:Q2 0 0 0 103.7502 0 2008:Q3 0 0 0 106.4502 0 2008:Q4 0 122.5454 50.85447 118.9648 0 2009:Q1 0 0 117.6126 124.964 0 2009:Q2 0 0 134.6801 89.8175 0 2009:Q3 0 107.5402 136.6789 146.7176 177.1453 2009:Q4 0 275.4664 135.9397 148.0508 509.8484 2010:Q1 0 146.0457 57.52658 89.45715 202.4318 2010:Q2 580.6239 130.4549 60.87209 86.77468 236.8066 2010:Q3 565.1558 127.4403 64.09136 87.34057 278.2778 2010:Q4 592.8601 146.7579 78.49522 145.4288 357.1408 2011:Q1 733.6268 159.0589 83.82611 149.8974 283.2694 2011:Q2 771.8138 128.9524 85.19049 155.4876 346.5819 2011:Q3 869.4907 126.7124 75.40111 158.1853 302.4092 2011:Q4 985.6363 164.5241 83.74451 167.6588 340.4855 2012:Q1 1146.868 153.9963 64.79846 173.2081 242.516 2012:Q2 1348.487 170.1577 80.48756 176.2655 248.7937 2012:Q3 1446.332 154.353 78.5782 182.4096 231.09 2012:Q4 1549.591 170.1158 86.92943 194.8693 239.3901 234 Mã CP V15 VC1 VC2 VC3 VC5 2008:Q1 0 0 444.6659 484.2134 407.7731 2008:Q2 0 0 508.2147 530.2616 498.855 2008:Q3 0 0 561.9867 527.922 508.2174 2008:Q4 263.0583 297.9715 708.5023 672.6744 509.3857 2009:Q1 0 490.5355 475.1343 657.4837 488.4703 2009:Q2 0 237.231 502.4126 695.5828 327.7589 2009:Q3 392.8134 479.4059 537.0896 636.6123 517.1805 2009:Q4 373.5667 668.7337 705.6795 1081.181 521.3046 2010:Q1 194.6285 386.6037 465.9366 1050.338 293.8137 2010:Q2 185.7913 469.0264 481.4614 912.3809 326.053 2010:Q3 191.3181 932.039 409.1305 872.4341 308.5907 2010:Q4 280.5922 853.8563 864.38 1159.926 413.6566 2011:Q1 0 473.3907 811.3167 1159.245 389.1234 2011:Q2 278.4373 455.9473 821.4334 1226.468 471.0641 2011:Q3 277.159 403.5894 833.39 1288.863 502.0635 2011:Q4 280.0108 535.0576 1011.593 1302.667 583.6699 2012:Q1 253.4033 411.8845 764.6832 854.9844 497.7282 2012:Q2 300.8427 510.4288 1042.273 837.2992 558.9098 2012:Q3 311.8836 554.2946 1118.326 816.742 576.1761 2012:Q4 289.8484 541.5028 1139.557 803.1683 583.0259 Mã CP VC7 VC9 VCG VE1 VE2 2008:Q1 151.398 0 0 43.1243 0 2008:Q2 162.5856 0 18198.09 47.36118 0 2008:Q3 157.5422 0 19788.29 45.41856 0 2008:Q4 240.7641 963.5919 21547.91 38.4615 0 2009:Q1 256.958 0 24998.43 58.29904 0 2009:Q2 280.2408 0 23208.85 43.19197 0 2009:Q3 346.714 484.5055 17492.95 57.75759 0 2009:Q4 407.1484 534.3936 25778.84 60.27294 0 2010:Q1 444.7286 530.7986 19757.66 44.56721 0 2010:Q2 554.7668 850.5842 23541.17 48.97996 32.08501 2010:Q3 460.9453 967.8408 22784.46 48.14471 33.4437 2010:Q4 499.854 1310.754 24158.77 47.2578 32.96014 2011:Q1 450.8976 1191.221 21913.7 49.99833 31.43191 2011:Q2 506.3263 1230.303 20975.42 46.79248 27.58664 2011:Q3 511.3324 1191.043 21861.35 41.14118 30.58095 2011:Q4 486.1598 1128.358 23806.74 52.4649 32.29645 2012:Q1 489.906 995.7061 20864.97 52.90563 33.77704 2012:Q2 467.906 1025.526 21773.33 46.4156 33.5883 2012:Q3 438.6376 1066.301 21173.78 47.37966 34.08087 2012:Q4 425.0055 1251.787 22022.77 45.43382 33.9773 235 Mã CP VE3 VE9 VHH VMC VNE 2008:Q1 0 89.12272 0 1040.624 2120.646 2008:Q2 0 97.41796 0 1157.18 2271.582 2008:Q3 0 93.08867 0 532.7338 1916.16 2008:Q4 0 94.78676 0 1158.981 1785.302 2009:Q1 0 88.72625 0 1063.354 1782.917 2009:Q2 0 85.13094 0 542.2311 1770.019 2009:Q3 0 102.6611 0 1013.03 1545.286 2009:Q4 0 98.13717 0 713.4084 1599.785 2010:Q1 0 96.98057 0 661.5265 1566.056 2010:Q2 19.10606 95.58833 103.3086 774.6221 1554.527 2010:Q3 19.02753 153.878 108.826 817.0645 1687.608 2010:Q4 20.45124 143.2502 120.7709 919.6875 1568.323 2011:Q1 17.66028 128.102 122.7375 895.8801 1511.588 2011:Q2 16.98563 137.4292 121.4908 874.8998 1554.499 2011:Q3 18.55791 109.8023 127.4073 841.8205 1541.755 2011:Q4 19.26791 110.7791 127.4114 888.5662 1534.668 2012:Q1 17.71238 96.96267 129.9484 808.4725 1538.943 2012:Q2 19.16289 93.42045 129.5119 826.6963 1583.489 2012:Q3 17.88492 100.3517 122.8205 849.0238 1453.765 2012:Q4 19.11208 108.6583 122.8285 860.6467 1458.748 236 Phụ lục 12 BẢNG THỐNG KÊ PHƯƠNG TRÌNH VAR ƯỚC LƯỢNG Mã Phương trình VAR ước lượng cổ phiếu D(ASM) = - 0.637516933*D(ASM(-1)) - 0.3168551061*D(ASM(-2)) - 0.1655646098*D(ASM(-3)) - 0.335281273*D(ASM(-4)) - 0.09233328195*D(ASM(-5)) - 1.48726849e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + ASM 1.731879468e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 4.705453306e+12*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 5.639867575e+12*R_VNINDEX(-4) - 1.810892309e+12*R_VNINDEX(-5) + 1.348803488e+11 D(B82) = - 1.370962168*D(B82(-1)) - 1.887699177*D(B82(-2)) - 1.745795671*D(B82(-3)) - 0.8857303753*D(B82(-4)) - 0.5367840129*D(B82(-5)) + 7.741867891e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) + B82 2.77166671e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.14090027e+11*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 1.73176283e+12*R_VNINDEX(-4) + 7.542842041e+10*R_VNINDEX(-5) + 9.457372153e+10 D(BCE) = - 2.226721469*D(BCE(-1)) - 2.172930691*D(BCE(-2)) - 1.460224732*D(BCE(-3)) - 1.355742995*D(BCE(-4)) - 0.4527328639*D(BCE(-5)) + 3.42862854e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) - BCE 1.262782645e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 5.71226663e+12*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 7.660194147e+12*R_VNINDEX(-4) + 7.721875288e+11*R_VNINDEX(-5) + 5.156522529e+11 D(C92) = - 0.3149663354*D(C92(-1)) - 0.4316535212*D(C92(-2)) - 0.3768315017*D(C92(-3)) + C92 0.3362415721*D(C92(-4)) - 1.312277964e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 2.662060644e+11*R_VNINDEX(- 2) - 1.117605471e+12*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 2.306952204e+10*R_VNINDEX(-4) + 490752772.5 D(CDC) = - 0.00880830461*D(CDC(-1)) - 0.4353434837*D(CDC(-2)) - 0.07425826074*D(CDC(-3)) - 0.1228430582*D(CDC(-4)) - 0.1083976655*D(CDC(-5)) - 7.969748475e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + CDC 1.166753228e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 3.774763592e+12*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 8.032764154e+11*R_VNINDEX(-4) - 5.201468381e+11*R_VNINDEX(-5) - 1.683351696e+10 CID = 0.1912889239*CID(-1) + 0.1174833282*CID(-2) + 4.436606723e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) - CID 1.743123279e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.537051906e+10 D(CII) = 0.06200392977*D(CII(-1)) - 0.5011541598*D(CII(-2)) - 1.104197441e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) CII + 2.364775205e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.138295859e+11 D(CNT) = 0.4659514927*D(CNT(-1)) - 0.8738606538*D(CNT(-2)) - 0.4820419325*D(CNT(-3)) - 0.1808300764*D(CNT(-4)) - 0.7451039592*D(CNT(-5)) + 1.674030614e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) - CNT 2.071636569e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 2.360265556e+11*R_VNINDEX(-3) - 1.149108161e+13*R_VNINDEX(-4) + 7.990352638e+11*R_VNINDEX(-5) + 6.491844692e+10 D(CSC) = - 0.3950629743*D(CSC(-1)) + 0.1215369076*D(CSC(-2)) + CSC 1.269991359e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.222012383e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 4.547340839e+10 D(CTD) = - 0.441822533*D(CTD(-1)) - 0.1269861563*D(CTD(-2)) - CSC 6.88128843e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 2.382184568e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.530979639e+11 D(CTN) = 0.01510278681*D(CTN(-1)) - 0.1336953393*D(CTN(-2)) + CTD 3.405049343e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.389590771e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.111246422e+10 D(DC2) = 0.004126044947*D(DC2(-1)) + 0.1345598021*D(DC2(-2)) - 4066870962*R_VNINDEX(-1) CTN + 1.262914365e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 5051716142 D(DC2) = 0.004126044947*D(DC2(-1)) + 0.1345598021*D(DC2(-2)) - 4066870962*R_VNINDEX(-1) DC2 + 1.262914365e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 5051716142 D(HBC) = - 0.1868426929*D(HBC(-1)) + 0.1652711223*D(HBC(-2)) - HBC 2.264712292e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.479195933e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 7.173884635e+10 237 Mã Phương trình VAR ước lượng cổ phiếu D(HLC) = - 0.155581055*D(HLC(-1)) - 0.1981423374*D(HLC(-2)) + HLC 8.941510671e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.706742361e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 8.311964651e+10 D(HT1) = - 0.06308536994*D(HT1(-1)) - 0.0938301796*D(HT1(-2)) + HT1 4.089572573e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 3.456527006e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 5.971995811e+11 D(HU1) = - 0.4471369068*D(HU1(-1)) - 0.08305313675*D(HU1(-2)) + HU1 6.149878261e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 1.395292978e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.001316999e+11 D(HUT,2) = - 0.654445925*D(HUT(-1),2) - 0.02105869837*D(HUT(-2),2) - HUT 4.991484664e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 3.721829556e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.447044603e+10 D(L10) = 0.05547974105*D(L10(-1)) + 0.387179845*D(L10(-2)) - 7.041797478e+11*R_VNINDEX(- L10 1) - 1.362107806e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 4957284121 D(L18) = - 0.3850769577*D(L18(-1)) + 0.1139432278*D(L18(-2)) + 5750753735*R_VNINDEX(-1) - L18 3.44114341e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.379931569e+10 D(LHC) = - 0.2881125552*D(LHC(-1)) - 0.4591585166*D(LHC(-2)) + LHC 1.027575811e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.855491884e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 6441536563 D(LUT) = - 0.2446751819*D(LUT(-1)) + 0.07048761138*D(LUT(-2)) + LUT 1.378708031e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 1355925285*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.81329528e+10 D(MCG) = - 0.8659289345*D(MCG(-1)) - 0.3758391582*D(MCG(-2)) + MCG 1.241923633e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.69141722e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 2.707881075e+11 D(NSN) = - 0.2388254142*D(NSN(-1)) + 0.1209742732*D(NSN(-2)) - NSN 4.999462389e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 5547763475*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.39538633e+10 D(S96) = - 0.6768260919*D(S96(-1)) - 0.2313122647*D(S96(-2)) + 3.964985436e+10*R_VNINDEX(- S96 1) - 8.337993142e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 4536534380 D(S99) = - 0.3734404*D(S99(-1)) + 0.05659373672*D(S99(-2)) + 9.059739868e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) S99 - 6.693206039e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 6175028749 D(SD2) = 0.01340783102*D(SD2(-1)) - 0.1335299114*D(SD2(-2)) - 1.10177884e+11*R_VNINDEX(- SD2 1) + 3.255490699e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 2.559928246e+10 D(SD5) = - 0.2939136454*D(SD5(-1)) - 0.1560437805*D(SD5(-2)) - SD5 7.896605303e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 1.218294928e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 6.323513837e+10 D(SD6) = - 0.401002974*D(SD6(-1)) - 0.1422669364*D(SD6(-2)) - 0.2803015666*D(SD6(-3)) - SD6 5.326126389e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 3.210050827e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 6.355083598e+11*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 4.542448492e+10 D(SD7) = - 0.3036045145*D(SD7(-1)) - 0.1829365734*D(SD7(-2)) + SD7 7.21211895e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 7.621627541e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.482761624e+11 D(SD9) = - 0.2327990916*D(SD9(-1)) - 0.254665003*D(SD9(-2)) + SD9 5.486860275e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.735560886e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 8.360171333e+10 D(SDH) = - 0.352828534*D(SDH(-1)) - 0.2149904521*D(SDH(-2)) + SDH 4.558785044e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 3.109719889e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 4.765763427e+10 D(SDT) = - 0.5477610612*D(SDT(-1)) - 0.3038302473*D(SDT(-2)) - SDT 4.613049068e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 2.55527277e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 8.293541515e+10 D(SIC) = - 0.1809525878*D(SIC(-1)) + 0.3212951436*D(SIC(-2)) + SIC 8.867647444e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 9.090554992e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.964160243e+10 D(SJE) = - 0.2912610733*D(SJE(-1)) - 0.5128568463*D(SJE(-2)) + 9.852334107e+10*R_VNINDEX(- SJE 1) + 7.689778424e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.07465342e+10 D(TDC) = 0.05729124776*D(TDC(-1)) - 0.1257148761*D(TDC(-2)) - TDC 1.137389554e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 1.772562472e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.380240546e+11 238 Mã Phương trình VAR ước lượng cổ phiếu D(TV1) = - 0.1627211338*D(TV1(-1)) - 0.09256395206*D(TV1(-2)) - TV1 4.099643595e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 4.915887623e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.172915492e+11 D(TV2) = - 0.3001167728*D(TV2(-1)) - 0.4257799268*D(TV2(-2)) + TV2 1.877179233e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 3.708850174e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 9903772268 TV3 = 0.7395334695*TV3(-1) - 0.4363460268*TV3(-2) - 3373507772*R_VNINDEX(-1) + TV3 9.493708404e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 6.25967277e+10 D(TV4) = - 0.2152497028*D(TV4(-1)) - 0.3428114206*D(TV4(-2)) + 1705163880*R_VNINDEX(-1) - TV4 2.940631244e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 6944371489 D(V12) = - 0.344133401*D(V12(-1)) - 0.2600690731*D(V12(-2)) + 6.353277845e+10*R_VNINDEX(- V12 1) + 1.172260631e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 2.81951258e+10 D(V15) = - 0.5466568632*D(V15(-1)) - 0.5364885464*D(V15(-2)) + V15 4.890095591e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 8.173711537e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 2.302520819e+10 D(VC1) = - 0.1885939588*D(VC1(-1)) - 0.585663384*D(VC1(-2)) + VC1 3.410695674e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 8.606075036e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.652931664e+10 D(VC2) = - 0.5860366972*D(VC2(-1)) - 0.2020571479*D(VC2(-2)) - VC2 7.046629254e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.86799882e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.319107827e+10 D(VC3) = - 0.1224016689*D(VC3(-1)) - 0.2030935437*D(VC3(-2)) + VC3 4.495087689e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 4.768739682e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.909635446e+10 D(VC5) = - 0.4060032229*D(VC5(-1)) - 0.2742945249*D(VC5(-2)) - VC5 1.045255511e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.044443405e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 5457660005 D(VC7) = - 0.1310157156*D(VC7(-1)) + 0.3200632338*D(VC7(-2)) + VC7 3.317981633e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.670184138e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.222066941e+10 D(VC9) = - 0.04810806828*D(VC9(-1)) - 0.1711299643*D(VC9(-2)) + 0.1282343816*D(VC9(-3)) + VC9 1.118105123e+12*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.742491005e+12*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 3.85832078e+12*R_VNINDEX(-3) + 1.027567481e+11 D(VCG) = - 0.8008195668*D(VCG(-1)) - 0.2259452045*D(VCG(-2)) + VCG 1.206372035e+13*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 2.499623253e+13*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 6.697334637e+10 D(VE1) = - 0.9053846326*D(VE1(-1)) - 0.5517901387*D(VE1(-2)) + VE1 2.443304127e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 2.751004228e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1692405551 D(VE2) = - 0.03635138926*D(VE2(-1)) - 0.1029615671*D(VE2(-2)) + 9640992826*R_VNINDEX(-1) VE2 + 8661103971*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 2827311103 D(VE3) = - 0.09243382678*D(VE3(-1)) - 0.008649884336*D(VE3(-2)) + 4555243195*R_VNINDEX(- VE3 1) + 3102865310*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1459486660 D(VE9) = - 0.2263179594*D(VE9(-1)) - 0.1215773742*D(VE9(-2)) - VE9 4.532250526e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 1.897438776e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 891842192.7 D(VHH) = - 0.05240226362*D(VHH(-1)) + 0.004775716693*D(VHH(-2)) + VHH 6.520885312e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 2.199436781e+10*R_VNINDEX(-2) + 1.009318435e+10 D(VMC) = - 0.8437621328*D(VMC(-1)) - 0.6195766962*D(VMC(-2)) + VMC 2.457224327e+11*R_VNINDEX(-1) - 7.225403316e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 2.092310015e+10 D(VNE) = - 0.3197107966*D(VNE(-1)) - 0.1209539986*D(VNE(-2)) - VNE 8.729299085e+10*R_VNINDEX(-1) + 6.449318617e+11*R_VNINDEX(-2) - 2.718533394e+10 239 Phụ lục 13 DỰ BÁO NHU CẦU VỐN CHO CÁC CÔNG TY XÂY DỰNG NĂM 2015 Đơn vị: tỷ đồng Mã CP 2015:Q1 2015:Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 ASM 2,154.65 3,423.07 3,935.03 4,380.81 B82 150.29 0.59 138.13 496.58 BCE -12.06 -320.55 710.02 1,404.21 C92 292.09 393.68 364.28 245.42 CDC 1,062.03 1,606.33 1,564.77 871.66 CID 20.72 22.76 22.56 21.49 CII 6,222.43 6,262.67 6,527.43 6,867.90 CNT 2,304.48 4,264.40 6,386.17 7,196.57 CSC 731.93 758.23 806.38 838.67 CTD 2,915.09 3,021.41 3,134.32 3,242.92 CTN 501.96 518.13 521.82 523.07 DC2 95.85 101.18 106.40 111.98 HBC 3,523.07 3,660.36 3,755.28 3,855.46 HLC 1,767.85 1,853.32 1,895.14 1,973.70 HT1 13,855.88 14,422.78 14,904.08 15,408.39 HU1 910.41 966.66 1,016.70 1,066.03 HUT 3,252.86 2,572.80 2,516.75 3,519.51 L10 767.33 810.33 839.14 842.24 L18 962.64 999.34 1,022.56 1,033.28 LHC 124.50 130.49 126.15 133.07 LUT 341.61 351.87 362.61 373.32 MCG 2,651.46 2,631.25 2,807.42 2,940.46 NSN 239.04 260.67 270.40 285.91 S96 161.14 158.59 162.26 165.93 S99 202.94 204.78 210.83 214.48 SD2 612.45 624.29 645.49 658.59 SD5 1,283.60 1,318.65 1,365.49 1,396.72 SD6 848.63 728.30 718.65 876.07 SD7 1,848.45 1,944.94 2,004.56 2,063.41 SD9 1,879.64 1,943.61 1,995.18 2,041.43 SDH 561.16 586.90 607.45 641.93 SDT 1,463.86 1,516.62 1,556.98 1,595.44 SIC 614.67 626.10 636.39 650.71 SJE 649.95 646.55 653.95 679.00 TDC 2,836.61 2,935.78 3,069.88 3,229.95 TV1 1,585.56 1,670.96 1,766.27 1,858.27 TV2 231.39 233.24 222.91 239.63 TV3 77.19 75.88 84.75 92.00 TV4 201.76 204.72 209.51 215.18 V12 246.12 260.50 276.27 289.77 V15 423.14 419.38 386.96 439.44 VC1 675.17 736.17 701.65 722.21 VC2 1,235.73 1,251.13 1,286.67 1,325.50 VC3 878.70 903.06 909.94 925.98 VC5 589.16 594.11 599.04 604.61 VC7 453.02 460.02 478.94 489.20 VC9 1,135.34 848.32 691.26 819.57 VCG 24,909.28 24,245.25 24,042.45 23,611.60 VE1 42.32 45.41 44.65 44.29 VE2 34.74 36.70 38.83 40.83 VE3 19.68 20.74 21.87 22.98 VE9 110.97 110.93 111.20 111.80 VHH 125.23 131.73 138.83 145.79 VMC 919.70 882.93 865.52 881.61 VNE 1,345.00 1,316.45 1,293.93 1,261.79 240 Phụ lục 14 DANH SÁCH CÁC CÔNG TY CP ĐẠI DIỆN TRONG NGÀNH XÂY DỰNG TT Tên công ty Mã CP 1 Công ty CP Đầu tư và Xây dựng Sao Mai tỉnh An Giang ASM 2 Công ty Cổ phần 482 B82 3 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng và Giao thông Bình Dương BCE 4 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng và Đầu tư 492 C92 5 Công ty Cổ phần Chương Dương CDC 6 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng và Phát triển Cơ sở Hạ tầng CID 7 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Hạ tầng Kỹ thuật Tp.HCM CII 8 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng và Kinh doanh Vật tư CNT 9 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng Thành Nam CSC 10 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng Thành Nam CSC 11 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Cotec CTD 12 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Công trình ngầm CTN 13 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển - Xây dựng số 2 DC2 14 Công ty CP Xây dựng và Kinh doanh Địa ốc Hoà Bình HBC 15 Công ty Cổ phần Than Hà Lầm - TKV HLC 16 Công ty Cổ phần Xi Măng Hà Tiên 1 HT1 17 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng HUD1 HU1 18 Công ty Cổ phần Tasco HUT 19 Công ty Cổ phần Lilama 10 L10 20 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng số 18 L18 21 Công ty CP Đầu tư và Xây dựng Thủy lợi Lâm Đồng LHC 22 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng Lương Tài LUT 23 Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện và Xây dựng Việt Nam MCG 24 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng 565 NSN 25 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 9.06 S96 26 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 9.09 S99 27 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 2 SD2 28 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 5 SD5 29 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 6 SD6 30 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 7 SD7 31 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 9 SD9 32 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng hạ tầng Sông Đà SDH 33 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 10 SDT 34 Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư - Phát triển Sông Đà SIC 35 Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 11 SJE 36 Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh và Phát triển Bình Dương TDC 37 Công ty cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Điện 1 TV1 38 Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Điện 2 TV2 39 Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Điện 3 TV3 40 Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Điện 4 TV4 41 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Số 12 V12 42 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Số 15 V15 43 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng số 1 VC1 44 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng số 2 VC2 45 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng số 3 VC3 46 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng số 5 VC5 47 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng số 7 VC7 48 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng số 9 VC9 49 TCT CP Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam VCG 50 Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng điện VNECO 1 VE1 51 Công ty cổ phần Xây dựng điện VNECO 2 VE2 52 Công ty cổ phần Xây dựng điện VNECO 3 VE3 53 Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và xây dựng VNECO 9 VE9 54 Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng Viwaseen - Huế VHH 55 Công ty Cổ phần Vimeco VMC 56 Tổng công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng điện Việt Nam VNE Phụ lục 15 BẢNG PHÂN TÍCH DOANH THU, CHI PHÍ LÃI VAY ĐVT: Triệu đồng 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 TT DN DT Lãi vay DT Lãi vay DT Lãi vay DT Lãi vay DT Lãi vay DT Lãi vay 1 Sông Hồng 835 000 1 843 1 484 000 15 975 3 477 000 56 700 2 679 000 72 000 2 344 000 17 000 767 000 27 500 2 HUD 2 432 000 121 500 2 091 000 96 700 2 375 000 233 500 2 917 000 130 400 2 849 000 63 600 1 956 000 15 000 3 Licogi 2 456 000 75 400 2 333 000 74 500 2 661 000 53 500 1 848 000 38 000 1 310 000 43 500 1 296 000 37 600 4 Song Đa 18 987 000 1 864 000 15 697 000 1 845 000 45 495 000 4 230 000 45 647 000 2 249 000 12 326 000 676 000 10 501 000 976 000 5 Thang Long 2 199 000 51 000 1 557 000 67 000 1 553 000 55 000 1 633 000 38 700 772 000 9 000 887 000 11 000 6 Ha Noi 10 211 000 261 000 9 536 000 264 000 9 100 000 255 000 8 961 000 167 000 7 134 000 121 000 6 617 000 127 000 2 41 7 TCTXD So 1 3 030 000 270 000 3 514 000 292 000 2 950 000 236 000 2 245 000 106 000 2 159 000 46 000 1 680 000 21 000 8 TCT XDCTGT 1 3 562 000 28 600 3 014 000 27 000 2 780 000 30 700 2 343 000 28 000 1 837 000 30 000 1 515 000 39 800 9 TCT XDCTGT 4 4 345 000 120 000 3 165 000 115 000 1 688 000 73 700 1 027 000 68 200 1 293 000 38 000 854 000 46 000 10 TCT XDCTGT 5 456 000 29 000 622 000 21 000 11 000 206 206 000 961 1 966 000 43 000 933 000 22 000 11 TCT XDCTGT 6 1 368 000 16 000 1 845 000 31 000 1 640 000 6 000 871 000 5 000 1 253 000 16 000 1 128 000 11 000 12 TCT XDCTGT 8 2 769 000 18 000 2 556 000 18 000 2 154 000 23 500 1 722 000 27 000 1 690 000 34 000 1 615 000 52 000 Cộng 52 650 000 2 856 343 47 414 000 2 867 175 75 884 000 5 253 806 72 099 000 2 930 261 36 933 000 1 137 100 29 749 000 1 385 900 CF lãi/DT 5,43% 6,05% 6,92% 4,06% 3,08% 4,66% Nguồn: Phân tích của tác giả từ dữ liệu mục 39